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Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

    PIP22 asked

    Is the Moon out next week? If it does we will expect a storm surge.

     

     

     

    If it follows the track shown on the 00:00 run, we would get higher tides but a surge would be unlikely as the storm runs into the continent quite quickly.

     

    Tides are Neap next week, so lower than they would be if the moon was full or new, and the highest winds are South-Westerly, when the back to the North-West or North, the wind speed has dropped considerably.

     

    The worst possible track for wind is what is being modelled at the moment, but as Coast said in a regional thread, "I can't remember the last time we were staring down a low pressure gun barrel like this, but I'm sure it was within the last 2 years and of course it never came off as badly as first forecast like this at 5/6 days away. Just one to watch I guess and hope it's only a bin-blower at worst."

     

    Further North and Ireland will get it first, further South and it will be France.  Whichever way it runs, I think it will be more that a little blow.

    Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

    isnt the storm what everybody is talking about the remnants of tropical storm lorenzo currently out in the atlantic

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

    isnt the storm what everybody is talking about the remnants of tropical storm lorenzo currently out in the atlantic

    I think Lorenzo was further South East.  Someone will correct me if I'm wrong :-)  Although the 564DAM line is further North than usual because of Lorenzo. 

     

    Looking again at the NHC and then the FAX chart, you could be right.

    Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    isnt the storm what everybody is talking about the remnants of tropical storm lorenzo currently out in the atlantic

     

     

    I think Lorenzo was further South East.  Someone will correct me if I'm wrong :-)  Although the 564DAM line is further North than usual because of Lorenzo. 

     

    Looking again at the NHC and then the FAX chart, you could be right.

     

    Nope. Not only is Lorenzo much weaker by that point but he's near the Azores than Canada.

    Edited by summer blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I thought it was Lorenzo but beefed up by merging with another low pressure system

     

    This is Lorenzo..

     

    Posted Image

     

    This is our system...

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The Ecm 00z ensemble mean continues to show a very turbulent pattern and barely has time to draw breath, it's a very unsettled and potentially stormy spell ahead of us and the current very mild conditions will be watered down through the weekend and washed away for a large chunk of next week with much chillier air sweeping down from the northwest, it looks like becoming cold enough across the scottish highest hills & mountains for snow with a mix of sleet and hail penetrating down to lower levels across the far north for a time. By the middle of next week, a very brief lull in the unsettled weather as an atlantic ridge rushes east and could mean a midweek frost for some areas but we are soon swept back into the very unsettled pattern although temperatures begin to recover a little, but nothing like as mild as today. Indeed, the mean shows the unsettled spell persisting and is much less inclined to settle down beyond T+240 hours like the Ecm 00z op run, it could remain unsettled with alternating Tropical maritime and cooler/colder oceanic and polar maritime air for weeks to come, with the risk of further damaging winds and localized flooding. 

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    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    So for Monday the big 3 all offer different solutions for this low with GFS looking the worst currently

     

    Posted Image

     

    Out of the 3 ECM is probably the one which would bring the lightest winds

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    Quite a big difference between GFS and ECM at just t120

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

    So for Monday the big 3 all offer different solutions for this low with GFS looking the worst currently

     

    Posted Image

     

    Out of the 3 ECM is probably the one which would bring the lightest winds

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

    Quite a big difference between GFS and ECM at just t120

    Hi SS,

     

    I think the UKMO is predicting the low running about 12 hours behind the GFS, comparison between T120 GFS with T132 UKMO I think would be better (But as it doesn't exist) as the T144 chart shows the low in the North Sea at 980mb

     

    Also as I said on the Regionals, the ECM doesn't quite ring true to me, the low is right on the border between cool and very warm air and yet it doesn't deepen at all, whereas GFS and UKMO deepen substantially

    Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Hi SS,

     

    I think the UKMO is predicting the low running about 12 hours behind the GFS, comparison between T120 GFS with T132 UKMO I think would be better

     

    Also as I said on the Regionals, the ECM doesn't quite ring true to me, the low is right on the border between cool and very warm air and yet it doesn't deepen at all, whereas GFS and UKMO deepen substantially

     

    This is GFS at 00z

     

    Posted Image

     

    And UKMO for the same time

     

    Posted Image

     

    The ECM ens isn't far off the Op either

     

    Posted Image

     

    Op

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

    Hi SS,I think the UKMO is predicting the low running about 12 hours behind the GFS, comparison between T120 GFS with T132 UKMO I think would be better (But as it doesn't exist) as the T144 chart shows the low in the North Sea at 980mbAlso as I said on the Regionals, the ECM doesn't quite ring true to me, the low is right on the border between cool and very warm air and yet it doesn't deepen at all, whereas GFS and UKMO deepen substantially

    UKMO don't buy the EC solution as of 00z. They also modified their own GM. Given the Monday development is due to current jetstream perturbation over Pacific, running across Rockies in next 24-36hrs, it's unsurprising how model handling continues to oscillate. Oh ps: no 12z NAE today in case anyone wonders why it's absent on any websites.
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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    GFS 12z looks more similar to the ECM 00z by sending the low further South,

     

    GFS 12z 1am 28th

     

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    ECM 00z 1am 28th

     

    post-6686-0-55494500-1382544143_thumb.gi

     

    On the 06z run this morning from the GFS it had the low over Ireland at this point so certainly a change in position.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    As said above GFS seems to be moving towards ECM this afternoon once that low pulls away we get what looks to be a weak ridge of high pressure

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Just as GFS moves towards ECM

     

    UKMO throws us this

     

    Posted Image

     

    GFS

     

    Posted Image

     

    Anyone's guess still for t120

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Sun and Snow
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll, Scotland

    The UKMO sticks with the low and it looks similar to yesterdays 12z run,

     

    Yesterday

     

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    Today

     

    post-6686-0-68572600-1382545310_thumb.gi

     

    Out of the main 3 the GFS has moved over to the ECM which shows a much weaker low to the UKMO.

    Edited by weathermaster
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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    12Z UKMO track appears to be further north and stronger than the GFS.

     

    Also interesting that at 72 hours, the other low, south of Greenland on the UKMO is more intense and much further east on the GFS at the same time.

    Edited by radiohead
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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    With the main model frames 6/12/24 hours apart from each other (dependant on which model), it's hard to gauge a true insight into a regional basis for where any severe weather may occur. The severest of the winds could only be a 2 hour event for example, and thus happen inbetween a set of frames for a specific time.

    High res modelling nearer the time might help evaluate a more precise and regionally specific insight into any severe weather that may occur.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    UKMO has a deep low Posted Image

    so one says yes and one says no who will be right

     

    At 5-6 days before it hits and that's if it does.... Nobody knows... With a low that deep and the way the jet stream is it's anybody's guess!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I picked out this little beauty from the GEFS 06z perturbations, it shows the type of pattern I would like to see as we move through early to mid november with the jet becoming aligned nw/se with reloads of colder polar maritime or better still, arctic air and a continuation of the very unsettled & sometimes stormy weather pattern, there are plenty of perturbations which support a generally unsettled outlook and thankfully, not many boring benign solutions, hopefully the 12z will continue this trend. : - )

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Aahha something of interest at T87 which should within the reliable time frame. Hopefully the pressure gradient will tighten and we may get the first autumn storm here. Looking interesting for the South West and Ireland with gusts into the 60's. Again though it looks like south Yorkshire will be under 50 mph gusts though. North Yorks may get into the 50's though at the present time.

    UKMo more interesting and that one looks like it could do a bit of damage.

    Edited by The PIT
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