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Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.

    Actually not entirely true...some species rely on the length of the day while others on the temperature. .which is why there are variations in Autumn as to when the trees start to lose their leaves...otherwise all the leaves would drop at the same time each autumn!

     

    Anyway this the MOD thread, not a Botany lesson. Apologies to any non Monty Python fans, especially to Yarmy and ls.

    Couldnt resist it though! Posted Image

     

    Tom.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl
  • Location: Bedford, 30m asl

    Something just posted by Matt Hugo over on Twitter that may be of interest - the ECMWF EPS and the EC32 are getting an update:

     

     

    • The vertical resolution and the vertical extent used for the medium-range and monthly ensemble forecasts will change: the number of levels of the ENS will increase from 62 to 91with the model top raised from 5 hPa to 0.01 hPa. The pressure levels remain unchanged.
       
    • The atmosphere-ocean coupling of the ENS will be active from initial time of the forecast using a new version of the NEMO ocean model.

     

     

    More here:

     

    http://www.ecmwf.int/products/changes/ifs_cycle_40r1/

     

    Best news I can see from that is from a stratospheric point of view...now if only they would let us see some of that data!

     

    SK

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    So the storm is back on then...SS why haven't you posted the charts?

    Anyway back to serious chat, we're at t120 now and all are showing a deep LP and disturbed picture come Sunday and I maintain that the southern half of the UK will get the brunt.  That is impactual and so although still not nailed, be prepared and when we get to T72 -T48 if its still on depth wise then we should have a little concern.  I'm travelling to Swansea tomorrow until Monday, right in the firing line currently.

    It can all change though this far out, remember the LP that was that then was sent way down into France and missed us completely?  And that was within a short timeframe.

    What I'm interested in is that with a pattern that didn't look too problematic it brought gale to severe gales in the Irish sea and coasts 2 days ago.  And this system that just passed pepped up somewhat over last night....it shows the disturbed air we are in.

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Even at this range, there is very good agreement between the models for a relatively much cooler feel to next week and continuing very unsettled with gales at times, the mild air we do have from time to time will pale in comparison to the current mildness, extreme mild at the moment for some areas, eg..16 celsius at 8am this morning in parts of the southeast, that will change.Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    GFS 06z at T120 for Southern England & South Wales;

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    Certainly coming into a "one to watch" timeframe now. Will be more interested in the updated FAX charts tonight after all 12z model output. Storm of an era? Probably not. Storm of the decade so far? Maybe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    WOW @ Gfs 06z op run next monday... looks very wild and look at those temperature contrasts between the northwest & southeastPosted Image Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    WOW @ Gfs 06z op run next monday... looks very wild and look at those temperature contrasts between the northwest & southeastPosted Image Posted Image

     

    Is the Moon out next week? If it does we will expect a storm surge.

     

     

     

    Edited by pip22
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    Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

    The Ecm 00z op run shows yet another surge of warmth pumping up from the south on friday, along with a spell of heavy rain and strengthening winds pushing northwards through the whole of the uk by the end of friday, the very mild air is then chased away southeastwards during saturday and the generally unsettled and sometimes very windy spell persists throughout the run with just a weak atlantic ridge during the middle of next week separating us from the next depression, although the southeast corner could have a fine day or two towards the end of next week as an anticyclone builds across the near continent. Another feature of next week is a rapid alternation in the airmasses between tropical maritime and a much cooler north atlantic oceanic airflow, they chop and change throughout next week but on balance it's much cooler next week compared to the current exceptionally mild spell, when it's mild next week it will be a pale imitation of the current conditions. There is a strong hint that by T+240 hours we are going to see a strong surge of high pressure from the south beyond that point.Posted Image

    Needless to say it won't be as mild but weather wise this would seem to suggest we're possibly heading back to a  period of as you term yourself, bog standard fare weather with little or no prospect of anything other than total stagnation if the eventual outcome of this Ecm 00z op run holds true.

     

    I get a sense that Uncle Barty is sniffing about Posted Image

    If only one could reassure me that this is not the case Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Is the Moon out next week? If it does we will expect a storm surge.

    Yes that chart looks scary for eastern coastal areas pip.
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Needless to say it won't be as mild but weather wise this would seem to suggest we're possibly heading back to a period of as you term yourself, bog standard fare weather with little or no prospect of anything other than total stagnation if the eventual outcome of this Ecm 00z op run holds true.

    I get a sense that Uncle Barty is sniffing about Posted Image

    If only one could reassure me that this is not the case Posted Image

    Sorry i can't...see my November outlook, another big storm early Nov then 'classic zoneality' for latter 2/3rds or 1/2 of month with a Euro HP in place and prominent AZH and PV over Greenland

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Needless to say it won't be as mild but weather wise this would seem to suggest we're possibly heading back to a  period of as you term yourself, bog standard fare weather with little or no prospect of anything other than total stagnation if the eventual outcome of this Ecm 00z op run holds true.

     

    I get a sense that Uncle Barty is sniffing about Posted Image

    If only one could reassure me that this is not the case Posted Image

    Well the Ecm 00z suggests a more settled spell would follow beyond T+240 hours but the next run could look very unsettled again at the end, this is what happens with such a turbulent weather pattern and such a confused looking jet stream.

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    I wonder what the potential storm is called? There is actually there is some names of the storms in the past like Kyrill or Xynthia.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

    Sorry i can't...see my November outlook, another big storm early Nov then 'classic zoneality' for latter 2/3rds or 1/2 of month with a Euro HP in place and prominent AZH and PV over Greenland

    BFTP

    That would seem to suggest  any possible rise in pressure from the south at that point might well be temporary as opposed to endless weeks of anticyclonic gloom Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

    Well the Ecm 00z suggests a more settled spell would follow beyond T+240 hours but the next run could look very unsettled again at the end, this is what happens with such a turbulent weather pattern and such a confused looking jet stream.

    Encouraging words Karl Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    It's always very nice to see snow on the weather maps, it whets the appetite for winter which is now only 5 weeks away.Posted Image Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    That would seem to suggest  any possible rise in pressure from the south at that point might well be temporary as opposed to endless weeks of anticyclonic gloom Posted Image

    NW/SE split generally.

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    The 6-10 day height anomalies from the ECM ens 0z continue to be dominated by low pressure, with little sign of any significant pressure rise in the near term.

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk

    (Copied from  South East and East Anglia Regional thread)

     

    Significant differences between the 84 and 96 hour FAX charts at the moment (both for 12:00 Saturday, 96 Hr not updated yet)

     

    The 96hr has a complex quadruple node LP system stretching from a couple of hundred miles south of Greenland all the way to the coast of Norway

     

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    The more recent T84 FAX removes two of the nodes and moves the node south of Greenland further east by about 500 miles.

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    The movement further east, IMHO, brings colder air further south more quickly to interact with the (innocuous looking) little low with a double frontal system at the bottom left of the chart.

     

    This is the one that will, if it verifies be the "Wild Wind from the West"

     

    Again, to me, the further south the cold air is the better chance of there being an explosive development of the low  --  but still early days

    Edited by NorthNorfolkWeather
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