Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[pandit-scholar]

Ok the low seems to have all but disappeared in tea times GEFS, I still cannot get used the unpredictability of it....

It's certainly ironic yet again, that as soon th "storm of the century" appears on he front page of The Daily Express the deep low disappears from the GFS operational run!! No doubt it will reappear even deeper on the ECM tonight. That what makes model watching fun!!!

[TwisterGirl81]

It's certainly ironic yet again, that as soon th "storm of the century" appears on he front page of The Daily Express the deep low disappears from the GFS operational run!! No doubt it will reappear even deeper on the ECM tonight. That what makes model watching fun!!!

I guess so 😀 I hope it does, I don't like anyone getting hurt in storms but I do love a good storm

[TwisterGirl81]

I always remember lots of storms growing up but a good storm has been lacking a lot in the past ten years in the south, I wonder the reasons behind this?

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO looks pretty nasty, 

Unfortunately I think the worst is buried between the day5/6 charts. Trouble with models which update in 24 hour steps.

[pandit-scholar]

I guess so I hope it does, I don't like anyone getting hurt in storms but I do love a good storm

True! Despite some getting excited on here about the prospects of a major, possibly historic storm, they should realise the great destruction and loss of life it can cause. The 1703 storm is said to have killed up to 15,000 people in Southern England. Even 1/100 of that number would be a real tragedy if it happened today!!

[Wayneywoo]

 

The 00z ECM Ensembles are worth a look, would be nice if these were slightly easier on the eye to look through.

 

yes I find them very difficult with my eyesight so I am afraid I rarely use them but they are another useful tool for us to use to get the whole picture

Might I suggest you try using windows 7 zoom keyboard shortcut.  Hold the Windows key and tap '+' to zoom in and '-' to zoom out.  Hold Windows key and tap 'Esc' to quit back to normal view.

 

This is model related as I'm sure this will help those with eyesight worse than 20/20 to get a better view of the various charts available and hence more accurate posts 

[AWD]

Along with the UKMO 12z output, there are still a modest number of GEFS members going for a deep autumnal low early next week;

The Op one of the more "calmer" members. Still wouldn't rule anything out at this stage.

[Cloud 10]

Ok next Mondays low seems to have all but disappeared in tea times GEFS, I still cannot get used the unpredictability of these models

 

Still some nasty looking charts among the  12z gefs ensembles.

 

  

 

 

The ukmo shows quite a significant low at 144 hrs,and don't forget the ukmo runs at 

a 2.5 deg. resolution at that range which is quite low res compared to the ecm/gfs.

[phil nw.]

Previous experience has taught many of us to remain on the fence wrt dramatic lows being modeled beyond 2-3 days out-same for snow really.In volatile patterns like this details often change nearer the time.May still get a deep low but let's wait and see.

Having said that we are certainly now into a very cyclonic pattern with a conveyor belt of lows heading for the UK local in the next week or so.

GFS 12z shows a very active jet fuelled by the steep temperature differences across the Atlantic between 40-50N.

 

 

200mph jet streak heading this way later this week having reinvigorated coming off the arctic cold of the Canadian Maritimes and hitting the warmth of the Atlantic.

Edited October 22, 2013 by phil nw.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The idea of a severe storm looking less likely now, with both the GFS and GEM backing away from that.

 

120-144 UKMO on Meteociel seems to be delayed in updating.

 

Edit : UKMO 144

 

Yep GEM and GFS bin, UKMO brings it on...great model watching ain't it?

 

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

Take your pick at t144

 

GFS

 

 

GEM

 

 

UKMO

 

 

This mornings ECM is fairly similar to this evening GFS run all over to its 12z update very shortly to see which way its going this evening

[J10]

On many occasions in recent years, "dartboard" lows have been modelled, however they rarely if ever come to fruition, and when they do come off, they tend to be les intense than orginally forecast.

As usual over the next couple of days we will find out the most likely outcome.

[Summer Sun]

Unsurprisingly ECM doesn't follow UKMO's 965mb low

 

Instead we have a cooler northerly

 

 

Compared to UKMO

 

Edited October 22, 2013 by Summer Sun

[johnholmes]

Might I suggest you try using windows 7 zoom keyboard shortcut.  Hold the Windows key and tap '+' to zoom in and '-' to zoom out.  Hold Windows key and tap 'Esc' to quit back to normal view.

 

This is model related as I'm sure this will help those with eyesight worse than 20/20 to get a better view of the various charts available and hence more accurate posts 

 

many thanks W, I will certainly give that a try; ah I have XP so not sure it has that facility?

[ANYWEATHER]

Ok next Mondays low seems to have all but disappeared in tea times GEFS, I still cannot get used the unpredictability of these models

Far too early, to get any detail at the moment. With the projected stormy low, the output will change frequently over the next few days, Ive seen many a output as a good many on here, change from a deep stormy low to something a lot more relaxed, but something worth looking out for in the days ahead  

[Summer Sun]

t168 sees the low pulling away into Scandinavia and another low is heading for Greenland

 

[Mark Neal.]

Wonder if that high pressure to the SW will push up from the saw after the low pulls away on this ECM Run?

[Summer Sun]

A brief respite at t192

 

 

Before the next low sweeps across the north of Scotland

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Unsurprisingly ECM doesn't follow UKMO's 965mb low

 

Instead we have a cooler northerly

 

 

Compared to UKMO

 

 

Yet SS it shows this at T120

 

 

 

That will be gale force winds, locally severe in SW regions..why jump that, within 12hrs it would be close to UKMO ?

 

BFTP

Edited October 22, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

Yet SS it shows this at T120

 

 

 

That will be gale force winds, locally severe in SW regions..why jump that?

 

BFTP

 

I was comparing the deep lows at t144

[Summer Sun]

t240 from ECM ends with a deep low centered over Iceland, giving strong winds for Scotland especially the further south you are the less windy it would be

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I was comparing the deep lows at t144

But within 12hrs they are very similar aren't they? That's why individual picked charts are not of real use and don't show the picture.  But run for run yes t144 is different. 

 

BFTP

Edited October 22, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[winter snow]

I would say that we use the colder word instead of cooler as we not far from winter now . sorry mods if im of topic just thought id say that. back to the models and looks very wet for the rest off this week and into the start of the weekend. but its sunday which could bring some snow to northern hills and first frosts at night for some. again on Monday could be a cold day and windy. GFS  shows a colder periend early next week so does all other models then maybe milder again. 

[Frosty.]

I'm pleased to see the Ecm 12z op run is showing a rather colder spell next week with winds veering nw'ly, the 528 dam line even pays the far north a visit and showers would turn wintry on high ground across scotland with a risk of snow across the higher hills and mountains, there would even be a few frosts towards and during midweek with a brief lull in the very unsettled spell and then when the pattern flattens out, it's nowhere near as mild as today has been, which is soon followed by a cooler blast of westerly winds, it's a nice strong and chilly westerly flow to end the run with 528 dam spreading from the west too  ..I hope this trend continues and that cold air to the northwest won't be a stranger in the weeks ahead, at least mild air is not going to have things all it's own way from next week onwards, it should gradually become more of an even playing field with time.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby, The one positive is the removal of any major damaging storm system tonight though admittedly the weekend could see some pretty lively gusts in places

 

All models show a Low tracking NNE across Western Sea areas towards the North of Scotland filling steadily. A night of thundery showers or rain at times in very squally winds will be replaced by drier weather filtering across from the West tomorrow. Northern areas may maintain showers for much of tomorrow before the better weather arrives here on Thursday. In the South things slide downhill again on Thursday as a new low approaches from the SW sending troughs North and East across the UK with spells of heavy rain followed by heavy showers again later in the day. As this Low moves further NE a strong Westerly flow takes hold with cooler weather with rain or showers looking prevalent for all over the weekend.

 

GFS takes us through next week with very changeable conditions shown. High pressure is evident over the continent next week and this provides mild and very strong SW winds over the UK with severe gales in the NW. All areas will see fronts cross NE through the week with rain at times, heaviest in the North and West. Later in the run Low pressure digs deeper down over the UK carrying colder and unsettled conditions with heavy rain at times for all for a time before pressure builds again to the SE at the end of the run with milder SW winds returning to the North and dry weather with patchy frost and fog by night in the South.

 

UKMO closes it's run tonight with with a deep Low pressure off Eastern Scotland with a strong cyclonic flow across all of Britain. Severe West or NW gales look likely for all with frequent, squally and thundery showers with hail in places and a little snow over Scottish hills. Temperatures would be close to average with a very cold feel in the breeze.

 

GEM shows a very windy spell too early next week as a deep Low pressure only slowly leaves Eastern Scotland. Strong to gale force Westerly winds will drive showers through with some snow possible on Scottish hills. Temperatures will remain close to average. Later in the week the West and SW looks like seeing the greatest risk from rain as a ridge crosses Britain West to East then builds into High pressure over Central Europe. Deep Low pressure in the NW Atlantic throws small scale features and troughs in towards the UK where they stall to the SW with these areas seeing rain at times while the East and NE become dry, bright and somewhat colder.

 

NAVGEM tonight keeps a Low pressure belt over or just to the North of the UK next week with a strong and cool Westerly flow across the UK with spells of rain and showers for all with some snow on Scottish hills.

 

ECM shows a windy and unsettled weekend lasting into next week in the South as a Low moves slowly East over Northern France maintaining rain at times here. There after things remain very changeable with a brief drier spell in the South before mild SW winds return to all with rain at times and temperatures back up to levels just above average for a time. A cold front crosses SE later in the week with rain clearing to showers on Thursday with the run ending next Friday

showing a broad and strong Westerly flow, relatively mild but unstable with rain at times, chiefly in the cooler North. 

 

The GFS Ensembles show a typical sine wave pattern tonight indicative of a very mobile and strong Atlantic flow with alternating air masses crossing from the West through the period. Each change of air mass brings it's own spell of rain which is shown to mount up over the period. Winds too will be very strong at times mostly from the West making Northern and Western areas at highest risk of gales or severe gales, particularly late this weekend and early next week.

The Jet Stream in the reliable time frame shows a strong flow currently well South in the Atlantic steered North across the UK for the next three to four days before it crosses the UK from a more Westerly point through next week and even further North thereafter.

 

In Summary tonight it's hard to see the wood for the trees as we move into next week with widely varying options shown between the models. The one positive is the removal of any major damaging storm system tonight though admittedly the weekend could see some pretty lively gusts in places, especially in the North and West but in all honesty nothing too extraordinary for this time in Autumn. It doesn't look particularly chilly on tonight's output either with plenty of scope for some occasionally mild days in among the cooler ones. However, things look very undecided next week so I won't comment too much on the latter output tonight and prefer to wait and see what tomorrows runs have to offer.

 

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