Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[AWD]

Whilst what is quoted above re. Express stories, big storm etc does look OTT based on current model output and is unlikely to manifest in such a dramatic fashion as what is being reported in the paper, it's probably wise to wait until the time in question has been and gone rather than totally rubbish any sense or credibility it may have already.

Who knows what's around the corner.

Edited October 22, 2013 by AWD

[Iceni]

Whilst what is quoted above re. Express stories, big storm etc does look OTT based on current model output and is unlikely to manifest in such a dramatic fashion as what is being reported in the paper, it's probably wise to wait until the time in question has been and gone rather than totally rubbish any sense or credibility it may have already.

Who knows what's around the corner.

 

And don't mention Michael Fish... oops I just have.

 

Edited October 22, 2013 by Iceni

[cobbett]

Fill your boots, though you have to register.

 

http://www.ukpressonline.co.uk/ukpressonline/?sf=express

 

The Express complained there was no warning (re M Fish), so probably explains why they think they are doing the public a service and warning about absolutely anything now however remote

[snowmadchrisuk]

ok the 6z on wetterzentrale is now totally different to 5 mins ago lol

Edited October 22, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[BlueHedgehog074]

If that monstrous, stormy, little, spirally Low came off at around 156 to 168 hours on the 00Z GEM, I think some of us could end up being blown all the way to the moon. :lol:

Clearly, caution should be applied, although the GEM does seem to have been one of the models eager to show some particularly mighty Lows! The 00Z GFS goes for something similar with an approaching deep(ish) Low to the West of Wales at around 174 hours, although it's not quite as vicious looking as the one on the GEM. Although it's not quite clear yet regarding the exact time a deep Low could hit the UK, or whether they will take a direct hit at all, the fact that some of the models keep churning out stormy Lows does probably mean we might get affected by one eventually (especially with the Atlantic and its kingdom of Low Pressure systems looking quite active). Plus, the likely dominance of the Polar Vortex to our North could help pump some 'fuel' into approaching Lows out West.

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013102206/gfs-0-144.png?6

 

lets hope that doesn't verify then....

[radiohead]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013102206/gfs-0-144.png?6

 

lets hope that doesn't verify then....

 

75 mph, sustained, in the Bristol Channel.

 

[karlos1983]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013102206/gfs-0-144.png?6

 

lets hope that doesn't verify then....

 

I personally hope it does.

[Jimmyh]

i think i posted on this before guys.... does the fact that the jet stream seem to be pointing directly over the top of the uk increase the chances of a lot deeper low than probably progged. I remember one last year that bombed due to the exit of the jet stream. now as the forecast for the jet stream is to be right above us monday tuesday will this increase the chances of a major low deepening???

 

Hope this is ok to post this here

[itsnowjoke]

And don't mention Michael Fish... oops I just have.

 

That just made me giggle

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows the generally very mild and unsettled spell persisting for a little while yet but the extreme mildness is eventually watered down during the coming weekend, indeed tomorrow won't feel as balmy as today but the southeast looks like having a sunny 18c tomorrow afternoon, another surge of warmth pumping up from the south during friday but from around sunday and more especially for most of next week it looks like trending cooler because as low pressure slowly transfers further east to the north of scotland, firstly we will see winds veering more westerly with cooler atlantic air sweeping across the uk and then as the depression tracks further east, winds veer to a colder NW'ly  which draws polar maritime down across the uk with a risk of showers becoming wintry across northern high ground and to snow across the higher scottish hills and especially the mountains so a more wintry flavour compared to the current exceptionally mild ( warm spell). The overall pattern continues to look unsettled throughout the next 10 days + with only brief atlantic ridges with slight frosts separating us from the next atlantic low and even though it looks like being on the mild side for most of the time, it doesn't look like becoming as mild as it is now with more of a westerly component, so the risk of colder incursions is growing with a better chance of upstream amplification as time goes on..probably as we progress further into november.

[NeilN]

The Express is a joke anyway. Diana seems to be ots focus plus miracle cures.

Sooner it ceases publishing the better.

[lorenzo]

This is a good link http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/wmovl/vrl/tutorials/satmanu-eumetsat/satmanu/cms/racy/index.htm

 

Edit - posted before finished typing, gives good information on cyclogenesis of these tye of events. Also wiki. has good links on European windstorms tracking the notable ones.

 

This site uses real time imagery and the latest model run in overlay and provides amazing imagery for these type of storms.

 

http://eumetrain.org/eport/euro_06.php?width=1366&height=768&date=2012122906&region=euro

Edited October 22, 2013 by lorenzo

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The Met Office last night said gale force winds and heavy rain are triggering severe weather warnings all this week – particularly in the South – although temperatures will be above-average. 

Well that seems more than a breeze to blow some leaves off....and I agree there IS worse to come. I've been watching and suggesting for an 'impactual' LP or two for the UK backend/1/3rd of the month [impact because I suggested that areas not normally exposed to gale to severe gale force winds will get hit]. GEM and GFS keep chucking these deep 'southerly tracking' LPs up in runs. That one Steve M has posted is a major hit.....it has to be OTT doesn't it?Storm of the century could be construed as 21st century and I'm sure it will be 'claimed' that way if 1987 isn't matched....I think of Oct 1987 and the Great Storm as a 'game changer' as that very unusual set up and occurence co-incided with the ushering in of the mild winter era.  Of course one storm wouldn't do that but its an interesting co-incidence.I believe that period between 27/10 to 9/11 will be a period most talked about this autumn...even after the excessive rain and very unsettled period we are in / approaching. So much more to come imoBFTP

Edited October 22, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Gael_Force]

Just saving the +147 on GFS - hopefully that will not verify for Monday rush hour - interesting to look back and see after the event (or non event).

 

[Iceni]

The Express is a joke anyway. Diana seems to be ots focus plus miracle cures.Sooner it ceases publishing the better.

 

Not really on topic for the model thread this kind of rather illiberal comment is it?

 

But as it's been allowed to stand, my own personal favourite wasn't in the Express, it was in the Independent and is related to weather forecasts...

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

 

So let's just leave it at that. I'm sure people who run NWTV like having their opinions published and the more the merrier — they can always bang the phone down.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Iceni

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

OOI I wonder if we could get an archive of weather forecasts in the papers the week before 16th October, 1987. That would be fun and what if the Express had forecast "The Storm of the Century"? We might have to revise our opinions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119871014.gif

 

Two days before the Great Storm.....It looks reasonably average doesn't it?

 

BFTP

Edited October 22, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Captain Shortwave]

Just saving the +147 on GFS - hopefully that will not verify for Monday rush hour - interesting to look back and see after the event (or non event).

 

Control run isn't much better 

[Methuselah]

I think it's safe to say that the models are now predicting some wild weather over the next few weeks? We might even get some autumnal gales... 

[radiohead]

Some of those ensembles, eh? Yikes...

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just saving the +147 on GFS - hopefully that will not verify for Monday rush hour - interesting to look back and see after the event (or non event).

 

 

GEM for same day.........

 

 

[TwisterGirl81]

Some of those ensembles, eh? Yikes...

Jesus is that like a hurricane?!! If that comes off then it colts very well be worse than the 1987 great storm, i wonder what the pressure dropped to in that storm? I don't think it was lower than 945?

[stainesbloke]

Some of those ensembles, eh? Yikes...

Wow, haven't seen a chart like that for years.....reminds me of the Burns Day Storm of 1990. Destruction across much of N Europe. Hoping this doesn't verify this early in the season, many trees are still in full leaf here!

[itsnowjoke]

Wow, haven't seen a chart like that for years.....reminds me of the Burns Day Storm of 1990. Destruction across much of N Europe. Hoping this doesn't verify this early in the season, many trees are still in full leaf here!

Not much of a chart reader but what are the chances of this coming off thankyou im still learning.

[Iceni]

Wow, haven't seen a chart like that for years.....reminds me of the Burns Day Storm of 1990. Destruction across much of N Europe. Hoping this doesn't verify this early in the season, many trees are still in full leaf here!

 

And the ground will be saturated so they'll just uproot and fall over — especially beech trees.

 

Uh-oh. So glad I got that Tilley lamp on Ebay a few weeks ago.

 

And keep the bath full of tap water if you live on a hill - pumping stations run on electricity - so if they're knocked out, no water which is the worst.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Iceni