Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[IDO]

The CFS trends have been to erode any HLB for November and that continues through yesterday's runs. It now is far more reflective of the JMA take on November with lower heights close to our NW/W:

CFS:

JMA:

So it does look like a pattern change for the medium term with vigorous cyclonic activity on our doorstep; average temps (milder further south) and above average rainfall for many.

December on the long range models (JMA and CFS) both show a negative AO developing, suggesting a catalyst for a pattern change, so longer term the anomalous trough to our west may get shifted.

CFS: https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/390799975736569856

So a seasonal flow for the time being.

[The PIT]

Mild Mild Mild odd cool night rain at times. A prolonged mild spell looks on the cards. The real interesting stuff is well into deep fi at T384 which won't happen anyway but if it did it would be interesting.

[winter snow]

well latest GFS run shows a few cold shots. I think we will get a northerly wind sometime next week. for the time being its very mild and often wet. and the mild weather will carry on for sometime yet.

[Summer Sun]

Mild and unsettled continues to dominate GFS once more with the only cold really affecting Scotland

 

Any changes to something cooler for all remain at t384

 

 

The warmer uppers into Scandinavia remain on as well, it will be a big change for them after an early cold blast

 

Edited October 17, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Bobby]

Now that's what I call zonal on GFS 12z, Atlantic blowtorch alright

 

[mulzy]

Now that's what I call zonal on GFS 12z, Atlantic blowtorch alright

 

 

 

If we see this chart in Dec/Jan, coldies' hearts will sink!

[Bristawl Si]

If we see this chart in Dec/Jan, coldies' hearts will sink!

Lucky it's only October then. Autumn is here....and surprisingly being v 'typical'.

[UV-RAY]

A very Autumnal look to the weather for the foreseeable really, for those in the West some quite large rainfall totals could be on the cards over the next week or so. The prospects of a colder shot in November look unlikely at this stage until we see heights over Europe subside a little or the jet takes a more southerly route, or both.

[Summer Sun]

ECM remains mild and unsettled so far with only the far north of Scotland prone to any colder air

 

 

By t216 like this morning we see hints of high pressure starting to get its act together over mainland Europe, and with pressure low over Greenland it has every chance of building over the UK

 

Edited October 17, 2013 by Summer Sun

[PolarWarsaw]

Very quiet on here tonight, it might be the coldies who are grim but the NW servers most certainly aren't!

[Summer Sun]

t240 doesn't build the high over the UK this evening but thats one huge high over mainland Europe!

 

[Zenarcher]

My 5 day outlook,

 

Friday - Low pressure in the Atlantic gives us wet and windy weather for most of the day.

 

 

A cloudy start for all parts with rain pushing in from the South West of England during the early afternoon. The rain will become widespread across most of the UK and Ireland through the afternoon as it moves North East towards Scotland. By the late evening over Scotland, Ireland and Northern England it will be heavy rain and elsewhere either cloudy or showers. The wind will be a strong breeze for most but across the West gale force winds. Minimum temps 2c to 5c and maximum temps 12c to 16c.

 

Saturday - Low pressure still sits to the West giving more unsettled weather but England and parts of Ireland later may see some short periods of sunshine.

 

 

A poor start to the day, staying cloudy with showers everywhere apart from England. In the late afternoon into the evening sunny spells over Ireland and England meanwhile Scotland will stay cloudy with showers. Gale force winds across Scotland and a strong breeze elsewhere. Minimum temps 8c to 11c and maximum temps 13c to 18c.

 

Sunday - As low pressure to our West gradually weakens it slowly improves over Ireland, Wales and England but Scotland will remain the most unsettled.

 

 

Cloudy with showers everywhere until the late afternoon and evening it will improve over Ireland, Wales and most of England they will see some sunshine while Northern England and Scotland remain cloudy with showers. A light breeze for most but across England a strong breeze with gales around the coast of Wales and England. Minimum temps 7c to 10c and maximum temps 12c to 16c.

 

Monday and Tuesday

 

A heavy band of rain crosses the country on Monday with Tuesday improves with cloudy conditions with the chance of showers and sunny spells. Gales affecting most of the country and temperatures generally expected to be mild.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A very Autumnal look to the weather for the foreseeable really, for those in the West some quite large rainfall totals could be on the cards over the next week or so. The prospects of a colder shot in November look unlikely at this stage until we see heights over Europe subside a little or the jet takes a more southerly route, or both.

Yes as it is it ain't geared up for cold shots even though its tracking south of norm.  It takes aim right at the UK as it swings in from our SW.....plenty of widespread gales and periods of heavy to very heavy rainfall.  Mild/cold....lets get through this trouble first as what concerns me is that ther is a run of LP after LP coming at us and they aren't looking like clipping us to our NW with a trailing front but barreling over us.

 

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

All models continue to show mild and changeable periods for the next 4-5 days when the agreed pattern between the models of Low pressure to the West of the UK with mild and breezy South or SW winds carrying Low pressure and troughs NE across all areas with showers or longer spells of rain for all while temperatures remain well above average.

 

GFS shows the entire remainder of the run with repeated Low pressure areas steaming East and NE towards NW Scotland and continuing to deliver spells of sometimes heavy rain and showers in sometimes gale force SW winds. Temperatures would remain close to average or a little above with the threat of things cooling down in the North late in the run.

 

UKMO tonight shows deep Low pressure close to NW Britain next Wednesday with strong to gale SW winds and heavy rain or squally showers for all in temperatures close to average or rather above in the South, sometimes offset by the wind though.

 

GEM shows potentially very wet conditions through tonight's latter half to it's run with depressions scooting NE across Northern and Western Britain with rain and gale or severe gale force winds at times in temperatures close to average. A few short drier interludes are possible too.

 

NAVGEM too shows a deep Low pressure complex remaining around or over the UK with rain and strong winds on frequent occasions with sunshine and showers when it is not raining continually. It too shows temperatures close to or a little above average, all academic though due to the strength of the wind.

 

ECM tonight shows a strong Jet flow blowing across the Atlantic and across the UK later next week with copious rainfall at times as well as strong winds as troughs and attendant Low pressure areas swing by close to the NW of the UK. It would stay relatively mild offset in the wind and rain.

 

The GFS Ensembles tonight show a potentially wet and occasionally stormy spell of weather possible with Low pressure nearly always the governing feature centred close to or over the UK. After a mild beginning a slow trend towards more average temperatures look possible towards the end of the run.

 

The Jet Stream continues to show a feed South of the UK for some considerable time now steering deep Low pressure close to or over NW Britain. Through the second less reliable half of the output the pattern remains more open but with every chance that the Jet flow remains on a Southerly location maintaining the unsettled feed.

 

In Summary tonight there is a strong signal for potentially very wet conditions to develop across many parts of the UK over the next week or two. A persistent spell of successive Low pressure areas which deepen further later in the run will ensure a lot of rain at times though the compensation is paid back by winds being maintained from a basic SW source ensuring mild weather will be felt for all for most of the time. Having said that the unseasonably mild conditions of current times may leak away later next week and beyond as colder air becomes engaged around the Western flank of Low pressure areas over the North. In addition to all this some very strong winds reaching severe gale force could cause some disruption at times as the deepest Lows roll past.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

[ANYWEATHER]

Well something for coldies CFS is generally harping on a colder than average month for November, in it current run,this chart would be interesting in a months time, Just remember that this is a long range model.....Just look at the trends...

[Snowman.]

Well something for coldies CFS is generally harping on a colder than average month for November, in it current run,this chart would be interesting in a months time, Just remember that this is a long range model.....Just look at the trends...

 

CFS is keeping coldies alive with its prediction for Feb.

 

[Ian Brown]

t240 doesn't build the high over the UK this evening but thats one huge high over mainland Europe!

 

Yes a great chart for you there Gav with copious rainfall, certainly if we get to that sort of position then its another 2-3 weeks of that from then on at least.

[damianslaw]

All models are showing avery unsettled outlook for the foreseeable future. Also a very typical outlook for the time of year, late October is renowned for being unsettled with the atlantic in full swing, so we really shouldn't be surprised to see such an outlook, its just its been a long long time since the models have shown the atlantic in such full swing.

 

So lots of windy very wet mild weather ahead. As we head towards the end of the month I'm expecting some cool uppers to start digging into the western flank of the low pressure and with the jetstream forecast to stay on a southerly course, more average temperatures will be felt with a possibly northwesterly incursion before the months end.

 

The weather is about to do what it should be doing at this time of year - very seasonal.

[Frosty.]

It's a dream outlook for those of us who eventually got bored of benign nothingness, great weather for ducks too..bring on the gales and horizontal rain :- )

[Richie V]

Oh frosty, you have no idea mate, hardcore atlantic porn from the GFS this eve. Bring it. I'm quite stunned by just how flat the nh pattern is at times. A very long abscense since we last saw it like that.

[Frosty.]

Oh frosty, you have no idea mate, hardcore atlantic porn from the GFS this eve. Bring it. I'm quite stunned by just how flat the nh pattern is at times. A very long abscense since we last saw it like that.

LOL yep, if I can't have frost, this is the next best thing and one thing is for sure, the weather for the coming weeks will be dynamic. :-)

[Polar Maritime]

Yes the jet stream is smack bang over the UK for the next week or so, on a personal note some very interesting weather coming up. It's about time we had some stormy weather and severe gales !

 

 

I just hope it doesn't blow my SPECKs off... 

Edited October 17, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Richie V]

Yes the jet stream is smack bang over the UK for the next week or so, on a personal note some very interesting weather coming up. It's about time we had some stormy weather and severe gales !

 

wowsers, thats almost as fast as a Bugatti Varon over NI

[Yarmy]

wowsers, thats almost as fast as a Bugatti Varon over NI

Let's hope it wants to compete in the Spanish Grand Prix in December. Meanwhile, fill yer boots. :-)

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks like it's going to be a model war for how low can you go?

GFS 12z starts the bidding at 945mb 

It's been a funny old month

Edited October 17, 2013 by Captain shortwave