Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[draztik]

NAEFS 0Z for London

yes Gavin, with graphs such as these, using London as reference, its not hard to understand the recent MetO updates. November, at least the first half looks rather mild.

Edited November 1, 2013 by draztik

[Frosty.]

With all the talk of a mild november, the Ecm 00z op run certainly doesn't look that mild to me. indeed it shows rather chilly conditions for most of the run, especially further north with air sourced from the north atlantic and occasionally from polar regions, it's also a generally unsettled run with lots of rain and strong to gale force winds, the strength of the winds would make it feel even chillier.

[Radiating Dendrite]

6z GFS as flat as a pancake.

 

It may be a frustrating few weeks if the pattern stays as it currently is.

 

CET may be very mild by the middle of this month! 10+ would not surprise me. 

[bryan629]

This mornings CFS run brings us a wintry spell come the 21st .... just  bit of eye candy for now i guess

 

 

[Ian Brown]

Worth remembering this is only the 1st of November so the fabric of the upcoming 1st half of the winter has yet to be woven but one of the things I remember well about early winter 11/12, specifically Mid-November through to mid December was the complete lack of good FI chart output. As the stratosphere cooled at an alarming rate so the vortex intensified and so any hope of a decent cold spell was all but gone and this was reflected in the chart output day after day after week!

 

My point is FI eye candy must of course be taken with an extremely large pinch of salt but when it starts cropping up it normally does so for a valid reason. I look at it as a window of opportunity, maybe only small and more often than not it comes to nothing but better to see it than not in that respect.

 

IMO It's still too early to make a judgement call for early winter (2-3 weeks off) but if a lot of the indicators are poor (as in 11/12) plus there are no decent charts being churned out in FI then it's highly unlikely we would be looking at any sort of decent blocking setup in the near future.

Yes, I was saying the other day that when a zonal set-up is possibly going to change the post reliable charts from T192 onwards often do start to play around with the differing scenarios.

At the moment though there is nothing to suggest a change from barrelling zonality, and I think we can say with reasonable confidence that this will take us through to at least November 20.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean, as with the op run, is looking relatively chilly and very unsettled, rather cold to start next week and then trending colder later next week with a growing risk of showers turning wintry across northern hills and in any clear spells overnight, a risk of frost although for much of the time it looks rather windy, the jet is aligned more towards wnw/ese which allows colder air of polar origins to sweep southeastwards as cold fronts clear through. So, the very unsettled pattern is set to continue, the mean is not even offering an olive branch of hope that the op did by T+240 hours, the mean stays unsettled throughout with power to add, there is nothing I would consider mild on the mean, certainly nothing like we have had for most of this autumn so far.

[draztik]

there is nothing I would consider mild on the mean, certainly nothing like we have had for most of this autumn so far.

 

Well that's a given, I think we'd all expect November to be cooler than Sept/Oct.

 

As for the ECM ens, there's nothing to suggest cool weather will infiltrate the South for more than a couple of days (and even then, it's not what I'd describe as cold, not even that cool). Temperatures by large, will remain above the seasonal average.

 

ECM Ensemble Average (Friday 0z)

 

Looking long term, and keeping London as our reference, temperatures look like staying at average or above for most of November. Rainfall also falls below the average from around the 11/11 to around the 23/11, as per the EC32 update.

 

ECM  Monthly Ensemble Average (Thursday 31/10/13 0z)

 

Looking at the North, Glasgow will be cooler on average, but even here it appears we will see a restoration in temps towards the average, as we head towards the middle part of the month. This region is likely to see some air/ground frost at the beginning of this forecast period, before the nights climb towards average.

 

ECM Ensemble Average - Glasgow Friday 0z

Edited November 1, 2013 by draztik

[phil nw.]

Locking this thread shortly people so hold off any more posts just for a few minutes whilst we open a new one.

Thankyou.

[phil nw.]

OK everyone this thread is now locked-new one here-http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78340-model-output-discussion-1st-nov2013/