Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[Summer Sun]

A quick reminder whilst its quite in here and more so for any new members the models are out 1 hour earlier from today until Saturday 29th March 2014

 

So for the next 21 weeks / 153 days the 12z outputs will start around 15:30 with GFS, 17:00 with UKMO and 18:00 with ECM

Edited October 27, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Here comes BIG trouble, St Jude...potentially the worst atlantic storm since 1987 (for the south) with winds gusting to approx 60-80 mph or slightly in excess of that, possibly gusts of 85-90 mph but not quite as severe as the 100 mph + which caused so much devastation in october 1987 across the southeast. This storm is bad enough though, it's being turbo charged by the jet stream blasting across the atlantic to the south of the uk at 200 mph which will continue to intensify the storm before it hits the mainland later tonight. The initial phase of the storm is the torrential rain sweeping up from the south/sw ahead of the storm force winds with the already strong winds continuing to strengthen to severe gale force 9 ssw'ly to storm force 10 and probably through Violent storm force 11 to Hurricane force 12, most of england (except perhaps n.england) and parts of wales (se) gets a major battering but it's worst the further south/se you are. Winds then veering w'ly/nw'ly and slowly moderating, northern england could escape the strongest of the winds but on the other hand, s.northern england & the north midlands and lincolnshire could have the heavy persistent rain for longest with a risk of localized flooding, the worst will be long gone by around lunchtime or even by elevenses as the storm will be clearing east into the north sea and beyond during tomorrow morning. Scotland & n.ireland are not even touched by this storm but still have unsettled and breezy / windy conditions of their own. The most intense conditions looks like being between (3-6 am) by tomorrow morning's rush hour (s) it looks like being the tail end of the worst of the storm so it's going to be very hazardous travel conditions early on with a significant risk of power lines being brought down and some tree branches snapping off or even uprooting of some trees.....TAKE CARE EVERYONE

Edited October 27, 2013 by Frosty.

[Barry12]

A quick reminder whilst its quite in here and more so for any new members the models are out 1 hour earlier from today until Saturday 29th March 2014

 

So for the next 21 weeks / 153 days the 12z outputs will start around 16:30 with GFS, 17:00 with UKMO and 18:00 with ECM

 

The 12z GFS starts coming out at 3:30pm?

[Summer Sun]

The 12z GFS starts coming out at 3:30pm?

 

Yes 3:30

 

other times were correct now changed

[Bonjangle]

Any links to the satellite live image of this Storm please .

[SE Blizzards]

GFS 12Z wants to bring in another storm to the UK next weekend...

 

 

 

 

Edited October 27, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[jesusfernandez]

Any links to the satellite live image of this Storm please .

 you can use sat24.com

or the netwheather rain radar to know where is the action and the lightning rada

[phil nw.]

Let's keep to the models please folks.

There are threads opened for Storm discussions and links to Sats etc.

Thanks.

[Mucka]

GFS 12Z wants to bring in another storm to the UK next weekend...

 

That looks like it has potential to be damaging too.

Could just be an anomalous run but it certainly looks very unsettled with potential storminess at times right out to bonfire night at least

 

 

And GEM highlights that potential for further storms.

 

 

 

Edited October 27, 2013 by Mucka

[Gaz1985]

Mouthwatering Bartlett pressure   if only it was a month later but I'll take this as it looks a heck of a lot drier than the last few weeks.

 

Edited October 27, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Snowman.]

Mouthwatering Bartlett pressure   if only it was a month later but I'll take this as it looks a heck of a lot drier than the last few weeks.

 

[Summer Sun]

Mouthwatering Bartlett pressure   if only it was a month later but I'll take this as it looks a heck of a lot drier than the last few weeks.

 

 

Lovely, just a shame its way out in FI.............................

[Summer Sun]

Next incoming low showing on UKMO

 

 

The only difference this time is its taking a more traditional route so it shouldn't cause as many headaches as this low over the next 18 hours or so is

Edited October 27, 2013 by Summer Sun

[winter snow]

nope it be cold with that high im sorry to say. very hard frost at night if it came off. back to the models and its going to be a lively week to start of with. then we see the weather becoming calmer and dryier for few days then if im seeing things right it could get colder next weekend with frosts and mountain hill snow. but that's in f1 at the moment. ECM wants to keep it wet and mild

[Don]

Mouthwatering Bartlett pressure   if only it was a month later but I'll take this as it looks a heck of a lot drier than the last few weeks.

 

 

Where's the Holy water?!  But yes we do need to dry out a bit.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Don

[JK1]

Mouthwatering Bartlett pressure   if only it was a month later but I'll take this as it looks a heck of a lot drier than the last few weeks.

 

if only the whole winter was always like that

[Jo Farrow]

Waiting for the 18Z water vapour, the best imagery to see 

 baroclinic leaf

A synoptic-scale cloud pattern frequently observed in satellite imagery just prior to the onset of cyclogenesis.

 

That's when things will be a go-go

[snowmadchrisuk]

Waiting for the 18Z water vapour, the best imagery to see 

 baroclinic leaf

A synoptic-scale cloud pattern frequently observed in satellite imagery just prior to the onset of cyclogenesis.

 

That's when things will be a go-go

 

is that the image you want . 

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

The General Situation. All models show an intense Atlantic Autumn storm whistling in from the SW as I type with heavy rain already moving steadily North across Southern Britain. Later in the night strong winds will increase to storm force in places with gusts between 60-80mph for many and not just near the coast. these last through the morning transferring out into the North sea along with the storm. Thereafter a showery West then NW wind is shown with some heavy showers in places especially on Monday afternoon and it will feel rather colder than of late. By the middle of the week a ridge of High pressure moves East across the UK bringing a period of dry and fine weather for a time with a chilly night on Tuesday night with a few mist patches. Through the midweek period cloud will increase from the West with another band of rain moving East and SE across the UK reaching the SE where it's clearance becomes delayed as a wave develops on the front. In the North Thursday will probably become showers and blustery in a Westerly breeze. By the end of the week things remain unsettled with Low pressure to the North and a blustery west wind bringing some rain at times to all areas.

 

GFS then shows a very changeable second half of the run with rain at times and strong winds with the heaviest rain and the windiest conditions over Northern Britain. High pressure does settle close to the South at times and pushes drier and brighter weather for all North into much of the UK right at the end of the run.

 

UKMO tonight shows Low pressure winding itself up to the West of Ireland on Saturday with rain and strong winds spilling NE across the UK on Saturday followed by clearer or brighter conditions with squally showers in temperatures close to average.

 

GEM looks distinctly unsettled and at times quite stormy as Low pressure move East across the UK repeatedly along with troughs which each deliver their own spell of rain and Westerly gales alternating with squally showers, wintry on Northern hills at times.

 

NAVGEM too shows very unsettled weather next weekend with rain and showers for all in association with Low pressure to the West of Scotland. Winds will often be strong from the West with just brief drier and more showery interludes in average temperatures.

 

ECM shows cool and unsettled weather with showers or longer spells of rain and severe gales at times. Some of the rain will be heavy and it will become chilly enough at times for some wintry showers over Northern hills.

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to show very changeable weather with wind and rain never far away with just brief drier interludes. On the whole nationwide temperatures will be close to average but with some warmer than colder than average days mixed in too.

 

The Jet Stream shows the strong and powerful flow continuing to pump East across the Atlantic Ocean and across the British Isles for some considerable time to come with little visual evidence of any significant changes.

In Summary the weather looks very disturbed and typically Autumnal tonight. All areas will be prone to periods of rain alternating with brighter and more showery conditions. At times it will be very windy with gales and with temperatures rather lower than of late though not particularly low it will certainly feel colder than of late. Frost and fog problems are unlikely however as winds will be a big factor in preventing this.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

[Snowman.]

I know everyone is into the current storm but next week could be worse if it stays the same.

 

[Paul]

Updated weather alert here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alert-status;sess=

 

[Thundery wintry showers]

The NOAA's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks both show an enhanced westerly flow over the British Isles, with a suggestion of below-average pressure at 6-10 days out but more high pressure influence in the south at days 8-14:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

The ECMWF ensemble mean appears to broadly agree, with a low over northern Britain at 192 hours, but a westerly type at 240 hours with the jet further north:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

Thus the weather looks like being dominated by the Atlantic for the foreseeable future with the west generally wetter than the east, but hints at something a bit drier in the south at around days 10-15, and no hint of anything snowy.  In this sort of setup there is always potential for deep lows to turn up, but the GFS operational is almost certainly overblowing the low in about 6 days' time.  Meanwhile, tomorrow's depression looks like it may end up not as severe as some earlier runs had indicated, but nonetheless, still severe enough for damaging winds in the south, as per Paul's risk map, especially near the Channel coast.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Newberryone]

Latest from Gibby

 

The General Situation. All models show an intense Atlantic Autumn storm whistling in from the SW as I type with heavy rain already moving steadily North across Southern Britain. Later in the night strong winds will increase to storm force in places with gusts between 60-80mph for many and not just near the coast. these last through the morning transferring out into the North sea along with the storm. Thereafter a showery West then NW wind is shown with some heavy showers in places especially on Monday afternoon and it will feel rather colder than of late. By the middle of the week a ridge of High pressure moves East across the UK bringing a period of dry and fine weather for a time with a chilly night on Tuesday night with a few mist patches. Through the midweek period cloud will increase from the West with another band of rain moving East and SE across the UK reaching the SE where it's clearance becomes delayed as a wave develops on the front. In the North Thursday will probably become showers and blustery in a Westerly breeze. By the end of the week things remain unsettled with Low pressure to the North and a blustery west wind bringing some rain at times to all areas.

 

GFS then shows a very changeable second half of the run with rain at times and strong winds with the heaviest rain and the windiest conditions over Northern Britain. High pressure does settle close to the South at times and pushes drier and brighter weather for all North into much of the UK right at the end of the run.

 

UKMO tonight shows Low pressure winding itself up to the West of Ireland on Saturday with rain and strong winds spilling NE across the UK on Saturday followed by clearer or brighter conditions with squally showers in temperatures close to average.

 

GEM looks distinctly unsettled and at times quite stormy as Low pressure move East across the UK repeatedly along with troughs which each deliver their own spell of rain and Westerly gales alternating with squally showers, wintry on Northern hills at times.

 

NAVGEM too shows very unsettled weather next weekend with rain and showers for all in association with Low pressure to the West of Scotland. Winds will often be strong from the West with just brief drier and more showery interludes in average temperatures.

 

ECM shows cool and unsettled weather with showers or longer spells of rain and severe gales at times. Some of the rain will be heavy and it will become chilly enough at times for some wintry showers over Northern hills.

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to show very changeable weather with wind and rain never far away with just brief drier interludes. On the whole nationwide temperatures will be close to average but with some warmer than colder than average days mixed in too.

 

The Jet Stream shows the strong and powerful flow continuing to pump East across the Atlantic Ocean and across the British Isles for some considerable time to come with little visual evidence of any significant changes.

In Summary the weather looks very disturbed and typically Autumnal tonight. All areas will be prone to periods of rain alternating with brighter and more showery conditions. At times it will be very windy with gales and with temperatures rather lower than of late though not particularly low it will certainly feel colder than of late. Frost and fog problems are unlikely however as winds will be a big factor in preventing this.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

This is more an observation than me taking issue with Gibby because that I certainly would never be qualified to do. However, much as it pains me to point this out and I know it's only based on one run but doesn't that look like an Azores high coming at us Big Time on the last frame of tonight's ECM? 

Just somewhat surprised that Gibby's outlook on this model seems to have overlooked this.

 

PS Not that I want the conclusion of this latest ECM  to verify because having that setup going into Nov would be like knocking on the door of Winter 2011/12 all over again  

[draztik]

Gibby, probably had a look at the ECM ens given they update an hour earlier now... the ens have been showing a very consistent pattern of late - low after low...

NAEFS also offers little support to the evolution of an Azores high parking over Britain by day 10. Seems as though we are in a pattern, and it could be some time before we see a return to settled conditions, on a nationwide scale.

naefs 12z@ 240

Edited October 27, 2013 by draztik

[Summer Sun]

Looks like the posting of images has been disabled whilst the forum is busy

 

Latest from Gibby

 

With the major storm system blowing itself away from SE as I type all models show that the weather reverts to a more standard form of Westerly winds, sunshine and showers. Some of the showers will be heavy and squally and perhaps with thunder. All models then show a brief quieter spell towards midweek as a weak ridge crosses East. However, this is looking increasingly short-lived even for the South as further deep Low pressure moves in from the West and bring spells of strong to gale force winds and heavy rain and squally showers at times in time for the weekend. It will also feel much chillier than of late.

 

GFS then moves through it's second part with continued unsettled and often windy weather with spells of rain and squally showers mixed with very brief drier interludes. 

 

UKMO today closes it's run with a deep Low over the Irish Sea with strong cyclonic winds around Britain with spells of heavy rain and showers and brief sunny intervals. It will feel rather colder than of late.

 

GEM today also shows a very deep Low over the UK next weekend followed by a rather cold and unstable NW then West flow, still strong. Rain will be most prevalent over the weekend and the start of the new week before more Southern areas see rather less late in the run. It will feel very chilly in the wind.

 

NAVGEM shows an unsettled period too with rain and strong winds at times as Low pressure top and tails the UK at the end of it's run.

 

ECM shows unsettled weather too with strong winds at times as low pressure spirals across the UK at the weekend. Thereafter and into the new week further wet and windy weather looks distinctly possible as winds remain strong to gale westerly at times with rain at times.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a very mediocre pattern as far as temperatures are concerned with temperatures alternating somewhat above and below the average. Rainfall and wind strengths remain the biggest factors over the UK with frequent bouts of rain and strong winds shown for all.

 

The Jet Stream remains the major driving force of the UK weather over the period with s very strong flow over the Atlantic and crossing East in the vicinity of the British Isles maintained for a considerable time to come.

 

In Summary the storm of the last 24 hours may be moving away this morning but the prospect of further very windy weather with strong gusts remains a risk over the next few weeks. With a very powerful Jet stream looking determined to continue roaring across the Atlantic towards Britain further deep low pressure later  this week could provide the ingredients for some more disruption in places. In addition rainfall is looking copious and flooding will inevitably become an ingredient towards media coverage as the period of this run evolves.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm