Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[Gaz1985]

Looks like this storm will be some where around the one in 2007

 

I'm not sure... difficult to know until it happens when wind speeds are recorded but I reckon the biggest disruptions on Monday will be the ferry crossings to France etc where the strongest winds are likely to be in the channel. Places like Scotland have these ferry disruptions most Autumns/Winters and not just once probably 6-12 times and with stronger winds than what is projected for the south on Monday. 

 

For sure for the south this is a biggish storm but certainly not for northern areas, I think there is a southern bias to this storm - if it was further north it wouldn't get quite the media coverage that this has had, I know I'll get it in the neck for this but I don't care. 

Edited October 25, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Captain Shortwave]

Oh for goodness sake GEM, not another one

A northerly

Edited October 25, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Chris K]

Oh for goodness sake GEM, not another one

 

 

Was it the GEM that previously picked up a deep Low then dropped it, only for the other models to pick up on it for this weekend? 

[Captain Shortwave]

Was it the GEM that previously picked up a deep Low then dropped it, only for the other models to pick up on it for this weekend? 

I think it was one of the first, though the GEM has had a habit of chucking deep lows at us. More a case of crying wolf and being right for once.

[gottolovethisweather]

GFS continuing to signal the worst of the winds in the English channel well away from populated areas, looks like East Kent may well have the strongest of the winds inland and possibly Isle of Wight/Channel islands, for the rest of south just very windy but that's all, nothing we haven't seen before though.

 

 

Yes I agree there is a risk of overhype here but with the media steadily focussing on the strength of the storm, I don't think we should take anything for granted at this range. As far as I'm aware, the storm feature itself isn't even in existence at the current time. The SE and South coast, based on current expectations are the regions for concern, given that it will be a busy commuting period. For my patch, I might see a 45 to 50mph gust, maybe slightly higher which in itself, is potentially life-threatening and also a rare sight for my place. One's location, location, location will be highly relevant as to how one deems the storm's effects when it finally arrives.

Edited October 25, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

UKMO also showing a more settled end to October in the south with any low pressure systems back in there usual place tracking north of Scotland 

 

 

I was wondering about this myself, with the likelihood of settled weather in my opinion being less likely than an unsettled period once again. For example, what's the probability of a secondary low developing behind the main event, say for next Tuesday or Wednesday? I guess, FI is t+72 or thereabouts currently and we'll just have to see what the other runs come up with. I think settled weather would be most welcome for anybody facing the brunt of the storm, however, given the mess it will leave in its wake.

Edited October 25, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Oh for goodness sake GEM, not another one

 

 

 

Yes, a possibility I guess as I was just alluding to.

Edited October 25, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Gaz1985]

I would be more worried if I lived in Northern Germany, Denmark or Netherlands.

 

[snowmadchrisuk]

Not as strong on the UKMO 

 

[Gibby]

Not as strong on the UKMO 

 

No that's right and just highlights the uncertainties still. However, I wouldn't read to much into one operational run. The Met will be running their models repeatedly and don't forget we don't get to see their ensembles which would help give a better picture. Certainly Jay Wynne on the 6:30 bulletin still had the storm tracking across Wales and out over the Humber.

[Skullzrulerz]

Oh for goodness sake GEM, not another one

A northerly

Does that mean North winds?

[Summer Sun]

Does that mean North winds?

 

2nd chart northerly winds yes

[Skullzrulerz]

CFS is cold

[Skullzrulerz]

2nd chart northerly winds yes

Cfs is updating giving cold for nov.

[stewfox]

Well we are certainly in a period of uber zonality, with the classic zonal bowl in place. Fortunately its only October 25 but it is hard to see a way out of this for at least 3 weeks.

 

Flights to Verkhoyansk are relatively cheap at this time of year ??

 

 

 

Edited October 25, 2013 by stewfox

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM has the same low as the GEM coming out from the states, the ECM could also produce round 2 here 

Not too intense

yet......

Edited October 25, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Snowman.]

 

Not bad if you're wanting cold.

 

Shame it would be a toppler.

Edited October 25, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[UV-RAY]

Flights to Verkhoyansk are relatively cheap at this time of year ??

And you'll get there a bit quicker if you fly on Monday.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013102512/ECH1-168.GIF?25-0

 

A better ECM than of late, with the jet slowing down & tracking back south again, because of the flat southerly track the snow cover over finland & Norway will be enhanced as opposed to being wiped out-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013102512/ECH0-216.GIF?25-0

 

S

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013102512/ECM1-240.GIF?25-0

 

THis would lead to a cold frosty firework night -( the day after )

 

not sure where Ian plucked 3 weeks of zonality from- maybe looking at the old 90's winters charts

 

S

[Frosty.]

I was really worried about that snowcover, this is very good news indeed. :- )

[Captain Shortwave]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013102512/ECH1-168.GIF?25-0

 

A better ECM than of late, with the jet slowing down & tracking back south again, because of the flat southerly track the snow cover over finland & Norway will be enhanced as opposed to being wiped out-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013102512/ECH0-216.GIF?25-0

 

S

Signs of hope there, the tropospheric vortex returning to the northern shores of Russia/Siberia and the pressure to our north west is easing. Would allow an atlantic ridge to develop and a more west/north westerly flow over the UK. Something to look out for.

Of course it's just one run from the ECM. Probably the better option as the Euro high option looks to be bulldozed by another low zipping across from the US.

Edited October 25, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Weather Monkey]

<

Not bad if you're wanting cold.

Shame it would be a toppler.

At this time of year I'd gladly take a toppler, something more sustained is better after solstice. Frosty has pulled up a few yoyo patterns so at least some interesting changeable weather could be in the offing. Long way to go but some short sharp colder shots *potentially* there. As ever more runs needed and with the uncertainty over Monday's low a long long way to go modelwise for further reaches.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

All models show an unsettled and breezy weekend with a steady deterioration in conditions as the weekend evolves. A Brisk showery SW flow over Western and Northern Britain will weaken overnight as winds decrease. A window of drier weather tomorrow will be superseded by a trough of low pressure crossing ESE across the UK with a band of heavy rain and squally winds crossing the UK tomorrow afternoon and night. Following that a very strong WSW showery flow will affect the UK through Sunday with gales in the North and West and showers heavy with hail and thunder in places.

 

THE STORM SYSTEM GFS takes the storm across Wales and the Midlands at a pressure of 975mbs falling to 970mbs as it exits Eastern England. All of Southern Britain would be affected by winds with gusts to 70mph + in exposed locations and near Bristol Channel and English Channel Coasts.

 

UKMO has the low a little more south tonight tracking into the Bristol channel at 980mbs in the early hours of Monday morning and exiting the east Coast at 970mbs with the strongest 70mph+ winds affecting English Channel coasts worst of all.

GEM has the Low entering SW England at 985mbs in the early hours of Monday and exiting the East Norfolk coast at 970mbs with the strongest winds here in the Eastern English Channel but less problematical for many Southern areas.

 

NAVGEM shows the Low more vigorous with it's centre sub 970mbs in the Bristol Channel on Monday morning and down to below 965mbs as it leaves the Humber coast. All of Southern Britain would likely be affected by storm force winds with gusts to 70-80mph for a time through Monday.

 

ECM shows the Low crossing Wales on Monday morning and on ENE into the North Sea on Monday afternoon with severe gales or storm force winds buffeting the South of England and South Wales through the day.

 

Following the storm GFS settles things down quite quickly as pressure rises rapidly from the West and a ridge crosses the UK midweek. This doesn't last long in the North but holds on in the South with a drier spell before a weakening cold front brings a spell of rain SE for all. Again pressure recovers in the South and a further drier interlude develops down here which in turn is quickly displaced by a return to Autumnal wind and rain from deep depressions crossing East to the North of Scotland.

 

UKMO shows pressure relatively High over the South from midweek but with a mild, moist and quite strong Westerly flow thick cloud and rain and drizzle is likely with the North seeing some heavier rain at times.

 

GEM has only minimal improvements next week with a strong Westerly flow with rain at times maintained with temperatures close to average. Later in the run a cold incursion is likely with a spell of Northerly winds with wintry showers across northern areas for a time and some night frost. This proves very temporary though as mild Atlantic winds flood back along with Low pressure with rain at times in strong breezes.

 

NAVGEM shows pressure building to the South of the UK warding off the worst of Low pressure further North to principally continue to affect the North of the UK. The South is shown drier but not entirely so as a front is shown to get hung up over Southern Britain with rain at times with High pressure building strongly close to the West.

 

ECM tonight shows a continued changeable and sometimes windy theme as winds remain Westerly. pressure does build midweek across the South with a calmer spell here before all areas become prone to active Atlantic low pressure areas moving across the North of the UK with troughs bringing frequent bouts of rain and showers for all. It then looks like becoming colder from the North on Day 10.

 

The GFS Ensembles do maintain an unsettled and changeable picture with rain at times and winds blowing strongly at times too. Temperatures are likely to remain quite close to average overall but there could be some milder interludes in the South and the increasing chance of some colder incursions of air from the North later.

 

The Jet Stream continues to look like blowing strongly across the Atlantic and across the UK for the reliable future. It will fluctuate North and South of this general position at times in response to deep lows crossing East to the North and higher pressure to the South of the UK.

 

In Summary the storm system on Monday is the main talking point and there is still some differences of opinion on the course of the Low. once passed the weather quickly calms to a more standard Autumn pattern of Low pressure to the North and higher pressure to the South giving these areas at least a window of drier weather next week. In the longer term conditions look like remaining or becoming changeable for all with rain and wind at times and temperatures never far from average but the North may see some colder incursions later and these may extend a little further South at times.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

[nick sussex]

Still a lot of uncertainty with this developing storm. Very worrying though for people living in the central/southern UK, given the strongest winds are expected to the south of the low centre than the north and Scotland look at the moment to avoid the worst of these.

Theres no end to the unsettled weather although the ECM indicates a possible change in terms of temperatures as it edges high pressure further west and pressure begins to fall in central Europe,interestingly it edges the PV to the ne. If this does verify then it would usher in some colder weather especially if we see troughing setting up to the east.

If this trend does verify and high pressure sets up further to the west then calls for a mild zonal November will look a bit premature, with a more nw/se jet axis then this does give the possibility of some PM incursions and perhaps even a northerly toppler.

Anyway we'll see tomorrow if this is just a one off or whether the other models might also retrogress that high.