Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[Mark Neal.]

In reference to the chart from the JMA from A.W.D, it seems the Met office rate the JMA highly.

 

Ian Fergusson had this to say about JMA in the possible severe storm monday 28th october 2013 thread "V good agreement with UKMO-GM and JMA much more developmental too (a model we rate highly). The consistent theme of UKMO-GM, MOGREPS & sufficient support from EC ENS & other model ensembles was tipping-point for warnings issued today"

Edited October 24, 2013 by Mark N

[gottolovethisweather]

So sunday night into Monday looks very unsettled and windy to say the least, with potential for some winds in excess of 50-60mph. Here is what the GFS 12Z H.R looks like. Rainfall, Wind gusts and Pressure readings.

MON STORM RAIN 1.gif mon storm rain 2.gif STORM RAIN 3.gif

 

MON STORM 1.gif mon storm 2.gif MON STORM 3.gif

 

pressure reading 1.gif PRESSURE READING 2.gif PRESSURE 3.gif

 

Good stuff Mark. I hope the timings do change as others have probably already stated, Monday morning rush could be a rush-hour from hell.   More especially for the densely populated South and South-east according to the current analysis. A hell of a lot may well change yet! BUT we have been warned. Stay safe folk. I think I'll be glued to these pages for the run-up now, I feel.

Edited October 24, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

Well one thing's for sure, we get plenty of advance warning and for the south especially it's a case of batten down the hatches because sunday night and monday look like being very wild..I hope everyone stays safe. :- )

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

gm-recent-continuity.jpgWorth noting that 10 of 23 MOGREPS (12z) members don't go for the rapid deepening / explosive cyclogenesis as progged in various DET model runs currently. Equally, variance on positioning / timing / depth / track of those that do. The key phase (as developing low crosses over to cold side of the PFJ later on Sunday and explosively deepens) is clearly critical in model handling, but there's certainly no 'done deal' in outcome albeit 3-run continuity of the UKMO-GM (see attached) has, at least, been very consistent. A forecasting and public warning/message nightmare and full kudos to my colleagues at Exeter for having to be at the coalface of it all...(especially when idiots keep batting-on about 'that' storm of 1987, forgetting the major overhauls at UKMO - let alone advances in our broader scientific knowledge and associated forecasting technology - that have followed it)!

So misquoted too, Michael Fish et al didn't miss the storm, the severity was just that bit more extreme than predicted.

Re the storm this Sunday / Monday....it's one of those 'last minute' deals where the severity/or not may not be known until its almost right upon us.

JMA certainly wants it, the ECM does but the meteociel 12 hr slot shows just before and then leaving but I suspect it would be similar to JMA.

BFTP

 

Edited October 24, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Tamara]

It also appears that there are a number of the 12z ECM ensemble suite who don't go for the intense bombing low scenario either. If anything there are more of them than this morning - although they are still less than half.

 

The threat of ugly weather has, overall, gone up a gear this evening there is no doubt and is a worry - and the JMA model further adds to that concern. However, no definitive conclusions can be taken yet by any means. On that basis the provisional consensus I mentioned earlier , remains just that, nothing further, and subject to change

Edited October 24, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[DAVID SNOW]

gm-recent-continuity.jpgWorth noting that 10 of 23 MOGREPS (12z) members don't go for the rapid deepening / explosive cyclogenesis as progged in various DET model runs currently. Equally, variance on positioning / timing / depth / track of those that do. The key phase (as developing low crosses over to cold side of the PFJ later on Sunday and explosively deepens) is clearly critical in model handling, but there's certainly no 'done deal' in outcome albeit 3-run continuity of the UKMO-GM (see attached) has, at least, been very consistent. A forecasting and public warning/message nightmare and full kudos to my colleagues at Exeter for having to be at the coalface of it all...(especially when idiots keep batting-on about 'that' storm of 1987, forgetting the major overhauls at UKMO - let alone advances in our broader scientific knowledge and associated forecasting technology - that have followed it)!

 

No more talk from you "Idiots" regarding "That" storm of 1987........ The Met Office has spoken..

[fergieweather]

No more talk from you "Idiots" regarding "That" storm of 1987........ The Met Office has spoken..

Reference is to some newsmedia elements.

[Mark Neal.]

The 96hr fax has updated... 

 

[Kiwi]

Reference is to some newsmedia elements.

But the Daily Express and Mr Powell say........ 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/438817/Lightning-strikes-as-biggest-storm-since-1987-sweeps-in

[Cloud 10]

The 96hr fax has updated... 

96hr faxc.gif

 

That's quite a shift north for the troublesome LP

[gottolovethisweather]

No more talk from you "Idiots" regarding "That" storm of 1987........ The Met Office has spoken..

 

Always worth remembering that the weather can and often does make us all look like "idiots", pros and non-pros alike. We all know the professionals get things wrong, nobody's interpretation is infalliable as we cannot predict the future with a high degree of certainty. I just "predict a riot" if it goes "pants up" and then the authority slagging off will be let rip. 

 

We just need to realise, that we've got some extremely knowledgeable guys n gals on these forums and we best leave all the talk of past mistakes in the appropriate thread.

 

I'll go back to lurking and learning for now.

Edited October 24, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Captain Shortwave]

It going to be one of those big events or just a bog standard windy spell

The pub run reduces the intensity of the low

Windy with gales in the south but nothing unusual.

Worth noting whilst the extreme members of the 12z were picked out on here, nearly half the members showed no secondary low crossing the UK at all.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

The met office do a fantastic job 24-7 and I for one back them all the way, so glad we have top quality expert input on here together with everyone else who make netweather No1 :- )

[johnholmes]

gm-recent-continuity.jpgWorth noting that 10 of 23 MOGREPS (12z) members don't go for the rapid deepening / explosive cyclogenesis as progged in various DET model runs currently. Equally, variance on positioning / timing / depth / track of those that do. The key phase (as developing low crosses over to cold side of the PFJ later on Sunday and explosively deepens) is clearly critical in model handling, but there's certainly no 'done deal' in outcome albeit 3-run continuity of the UKMO-GM (see attached) has, at least, been very consistent. A forecasting and public warning/message nightmare and full kudos to my colleagues at Exeter for having to be at the coalface of it all...(especially when idiots keep batting-on about 'that' storm of 1987, forgetting the major overhauls at UKMO - let alone advances in our broader scientific knowledge and associated forecasting technology - that have followed it)!

 

very interesting looking at the charts you linked for us Ian-thanks, and be great if you feel able to do that tomorrow and Saturday??

[fergieweather]

very interesting looking at the charts you linked for us Ian-thanks, and be great if you feel able to do that tomorrow and Saturday??

Yup. Who knows the shape of it all by then. Hopefully less developmental or way south. A minority solution currently, granted, but there's still time to dodge the bullet.

[Gibby]

Still a lot of uncertainty about the storm but I wouldn't bet against it being as the UKMO charts suggest and I for one think the Met are right to give early warnings while at the same time highlighting the uncertainty. I personally think that the UK has one of the most challenging weather patterns in the world and the Met do a brilliant job of handling some very difficult synoptic patterns at times given that there is 4,000mls of ocean to our West where observations are sparse and this weekend is a case in point.

[Tom Jarvis]

worse case scenario again worse than the 12Z

[Skyraker]

Still a lot of uncertainty about the storm but I wouldn't bet against it being as the UKMO charts suggest and I for one think the Met are right to give early warnings while at the same time highlighting the uncertainty. I personally think that the UK has one of the most challenging weather patterns in the world and the Met do a brilliant job of handling some very difficult synoptic patterns at times given that there is 4,000mls of ocean to our West where observations are sparse and this weekend is a case in point.

 

Bloody hell gibby, did you need a map to find us?

 

I thought you were AWOL.

[weirpig]

worse case scenario again worse than the 12Z

That is the 12z mate 18z just trickling out

[Skyraker]

To be fair Tom, that's a hell of a cherry pick.

 

 

worse case scenario again worse than the 12Z

[Frosty.]

We missed you Gibby :-) all we need is GP back and all will be well :-)

[weirpig]

quite a few perts still going with the low  some monsters in there too.

[radiohead]

quite a few perts still going with the low  some monsters in there too.

 

The majority, including the control run, show a more intense low than the operational.

 

[The PIT]

GFS beginning the normal downgrade progress this morning. Low much less developed and further south. The far south still gets a blow but much less than before.

UKMO may still have it tracking across the country but the time period doesn't show this and the low jumps quite a distance between the time slots.

Edited October 25, 2013 by The PIT

[Mark Neal.]

Morning all. A quick look at the overnight modelling of the potential of the storm on Monday. Charts looking at 1-2am on Monday morning.

GFS-

UKMO-

GEM-

GEFS-

Edited October 25, 2013 by Mark N