Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[AWD]

oo err ECM is already deeper that the 0Z

And further north too bringing a lot of the Midlands southwards in the frame.

[radiohead]

ECMWF 968mb. GFS 972mb.  Isobars look tigher over the UK on the ECMWF compared to the GFS.

 

GFS above, ECMWF below :

 

 

 

 

[Tom Jarvis]

where is mr steve mur I would like to know what he thinks of the charts at the moment

[Mark Neal.]

ECM bringing the low pressure further north with Southern England right at the forefront of strong winds. Midlands also right back in the mix of very strong winds. Heavy rain for much of the country. 

Edited October 24, 2013 by Mark N

[Mark Neal.]

Clearing away by tuesday, calm after the storm, before settling down for midweek. Pressure rise in the SE, big trough to the NW of UK

.

[NorthYorkMoorsSnow]

Is it ment to be very windy in Northern England?

Edited October 24, 2013 by dannyluke123

[Mark Neal.]

Low pressure sweeps into NW for Halloween before sweeping through country by start of November, so we start a new month with the same unsettled pattern which October had if ECM is close.

 

 

 

Is it ment to be very windy in Northern England?

Yes, windy with strong gusts if we keep seeing corrections northwards on the models gusts could be in excess of 50mph even for northern england. But a unsettled and windy monday for all.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Mark N

[Skullzrulerz]

How fast is the winds going to be in cornwall?

[The PIT]

ECM bringing the low pressure further north with Southern England right at the forefront of strong winds. Midlands also right back in the mix of very strong winds. Heavy rain for much of the country. 

Yup ECM wants to mash us. Going to great watching this for the next few days.

How fast is the winds going to be in cornwall?

Far too early to say. Best waiting until the details firm up which will probably be Saturday unless we get full model agreement tomorrow.

[Skullzrulerz]

Yup ECM wants to mash us. Going to great watching this for the next few days.

Far too early to say. Best waiting until the details firm up which will probably be Saturday unless we get full model agreement tomorrow.

Yeah You're right I hope we do not get 50+Mph winds.

[Frosty.]

With all the emphasis currently on the very unsettled and potentially stormy weather ahead, it may come as a surprise that the outlook could end up being anticyclonic. Once again, as with the GEFS 06z perturbations, almost ½ of the 12z perturbations become very anticyclonic and some of the others are ½ settled & ½ unsettled so we could see a much more settled spell developing by later next week onwards with an increasing risk of fog and a touch of frost and the PFJ shunted further north.

[Iceni]

Indeed potential is the key word here, it's not a nailed on severe event until a Red warning is enforced. So until that happens this event is not as bad as it can/could be.

 

Also the reason why only Amber warnings were given for some flooding like you mentioned is because river flooding happens every year, I don't think it would be reasonable to issue a Red warning every time unless lives were at risk, some rivers don't endanger people that's common sense in a rural area where there's not a lot of people, but winds usually are more dangerous with slates flying off roofs etc. And I don't want a Red warning 4 days out either, ideally I will wait until Saturday or even later if that happens.

 

 

Depends on the state of construction, something old or flimsy like a wood fence will break easily - doesn't take a rocket scientist to work that out, also smaller trees will get battered but older bigger trees with longer roots won't get uprooted unless the wind is 70-80mph but even then it depends. In the past we have had winds of 75-80mph but big old trees in a nearby field are still standing. If that was the case with 55mph winds Manchester would be treeless! lol

 

The RHS and NT did a survey after the '87 storm. They came to the conclusion that if a tree had grown from a little sapling, they were less likely to uproot. But trees which had been planted at quite a mature stage, i.e. for instant effect, came down like nine pins. They'd never developed their root systems properly to anchor them in place and were top heavy.

 

In our 'neck of the woods'   we noticed that beeches were the worst - they have a very shallow root system.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Iceni

[Summer Sun]

Is it ment to be very windy in Northern England?

 

Could you pop your location into your profile?

 

At the moment the north should escape the worst

 

Currently Manchester north we're looking at gusts speeds ranging from around 25mph to 36mph

 

Where as in Cornwall we're looking at 67mph gusts

 

This is what the met office currently think (time of day top right)

 

[Frosty.]

Well, tonight's Ecm 12z op run continues the unsettled and sometimes very windy outlook with rapidly changing airmasses but on balance it looks rather chilly next week compared to recent times, it's not looking very mild next week that's for sure. the azores high tries it's luck later next week to build a ridge across the southeast but is soon sent packing by the next tidal wave of low pressure bearing down on the uk from the northwest, it looks like a chilly westerly flow later in the run of arctic origins but seriously modified during it's long atlantic journey, very unsettled end to the ecm 12z tonight.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

The projected stormy spell is still on track for the southern parts of the Uk. There is certainly a threat of some severe weather in terms of wind and rain . What I do feel interesting is that the stormy low flings aways very quickly due to a very strong jet stream, there will be lots of changes in the days ahead but at least intense rain and wind will be shortlived although very concerning for some folk! Ecm shows a same evolution....   here is the gfs predictions....

[tinybill]

The projected stormy spell is still on track for the southern parts of the Uk. There is certainly a threat of some severe weather in terms of wind and rain . What I do feel interesting is that the stormy low flings aways very quickly due to a very strong jet stream, there will be lots of changes in the days ahead but at least intense rain and wind will be shortlived although very concerning for some folk! Ecm shows a same evolution....   here is the gfs predictions....

all i  say  its  looking  on par  as  the great  storm  watching  are  local weather  its  on the same  path and  we  all know what happened to the  east  and  the  south east of  the  uk 

will be  watching the models to see  how bad  it  could  get  on  Monday!!

[Snowman.]

 

this is worse case scenario  

 

God I wish I could see a Wind chart for that.

[tinybill]

God I wish I could see a Wind chart for that.

god that  scary  for the  east

[phil nw.]

Meanwhile, as we batten down for that nasty secondary low due Sunday/Monday, upstream over N.America sees a major incursion of Arctic air.

 

 

that Canadian upper trough digging frigid air well south by T96hrs with daytime 2mtr temps below freezing.

 

Back in old blighty no real change from the Atlantic attack going into next week with bands of wind and rain moving through on the strong south westerly flow with brief ridging inbetween.

 

 

The image above showing a very active Pacific and Atlantic jet-Autumn in all it,s glory as the Northern Hemisphere cools.

Edited October 24, 2013 by phil nw.

[gareth73]

Notice the BBC weather just before 9pm has started to firm up with the storm and warnings of 70/80mph damaging winds.

[Snowman.]

CFS is going for some have been calling for November,

 

 

 

Russian High edging into Northern Europe, Brings in some Southerlies with an Small injection of warmer air.

 

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

All models show Low pressure becoming dominant again over the next few days as the first centre moves North North-east across the UK tomorrow and is followed by very deep Low pressure up to the North with a broad run of westerly winds with showers and longer spells of rain over the weekend. On Monday the risk of a severe weather event is still shown by the most powerful models and if the path of the storm takes a track over Northern Wales and England severe or storm force winds are possible for a time on Monday but there is still an element of doubt as to how strong the winds will be and where tonight.

 

GFS then takes us through the remainder of next week with changeable weather maintained but with less wind than early in the week as Low pressure ends up close to SW England with rain at times and relatively mild conditions in the

Southerly flow. Later in the output the Atlantic racks up strength again with gales and spells of rain and showers returning to all areas over week 2 as deep Low pressure moves East to the North of the UK.

 

UKMO tonight shows a brief lull following the Monday storm with sunshine and showers before a new Low pressure up to the NW brings renewed strong winds and heavy rain East across all areas around midweek. Temperatures wouldn't be far from average but it will feel cold in the wind and rain.

GEM shows a very changeable and windy period through next week with High pressure never far from the South especially later in the run. Nevertheless, it would be sufficiently far away to maintain windy weather for all with Westerly gales on northern and Western coasts and hills at times. rain would be commonplace too with the North and West seeing the most of this until all areas dry out a bit as pressure builds up from the SW at the end of the run.

NAVGEM keeps very unsettled weather next week with spells of rain and showers for all as Low pressure continues to move across or to the North of the UK. Temperatures would fluctuate between average and maybe a little above or below average at times.

 

ECM tonight shows a brief respite from the wind and rain as we move through midweek as a weak ridge crosses the UK from the West. Later in the week Low pressure intensifies again to the North bringing renewed rain and strong winds across from the West from later in the week. Temperatures will be close to average.

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to show mostly unsettled weather with rain at times in a strongly Atlantic based weather pattern. Temperatures are never expected to be cold or overly warm through the period with strong winds at times too.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow troughed down to the SW of Britain but flattens out on a West to East axis across the Atlantic and the UK from the weekend and well into the end of next week.

 

In Summary the weather looks like staying very unsettled over the next few weeks. There will just be a few shorter and drier interludes between lengthy spells of rain and showers. The start of next week looks potentially stormy with the risk of some damaging winds over Southern Britain for a time. Temperatures are likely to be average for most of the time but with all the wind and rain it will feel chilly for much of the time too.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

[Mark Neal.]

So sunday night into Monday looks very unsettled and windy to say the least, with potential for some winds in excess of 50-60mph. Here is what the GFS 12Z H.R looks like. Rainfall, Wind gusts and Pressure readings.

   

 

  

 

  

 

[AWD]

12z JMA also producing a notable low over Southern England on Monday;

[fergieweather]

Worth noting that 10 of 23 MOGREPS (12z) members don't go for the rapid deepening / explosive cyclogenesis as progged in various DET model runs currently. Equally, variance on positioning / timing / depth / track of those that do. The key phase (as developing low crosses over to cold side of the PFJ later on Sunday and explosively deepens) is clearly critical in model handling, but there's certainly no 'done deal' in outcome albeit 3-run continuity of the UKMO-GM (see attached) has, at least, been very consistent. A forecasting and public warning/message nightmare and full kudos to my colleagues at Exeter for having to be at the coalface of it all...(especially when idiots keep batting-on about 'that' storm of 1987, forgetting the major overhauls at UKMO - let alone advances in our broader scientific knowledge and associated forecasting technology - that have followed it)!