Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[pandit-scholar]

This is not a blow torch, this is white out across southern England

Well this is the chart I am getting from the above posted link!!

[pandit-scholar]

The latest fax charts show the strongest winds targeting northern france, haven't we been here once before.... I know the interaction with the jet is different this time but I currently think there is a good chance the worst part of the developing storm will miss the uk and hit the channel islands and n.france..at this stage I would call it as a near miss, as did mr fish. 

I think the fax chart will change from day to day!! Now we know how much difficulty the Met Office had in 1987

[Frosty.]

I think the fax chart will change from day to day!! Now we know how much difficulty the Met Office had in 1987

True, they will have a much better handle on it this time, it won't go to the wire or anywhere near the wire like it did back in the day.

[shedhead]

I think that we now have a separate thread for the potential storm.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78257-possible-severe-storm-monday-28th-october-2013/

Indeed...but even so there is absolutely no point in folk chasing the track and/or intensity of the Monday low around across each and every run....it will change every 6 hours for certain, probably right up until Sunday morning. Without question there appears to be a trend/correction southwards, but that is no more likely to continue than it is reverse at this range, so all options seen across the last 48-72hrs remain firmly on the table imo.

 

Looking at the bigger picture GFS continues to advertise it's 'much quieter window' later next week, whilst ECM sticks firmly with 'computer says NO'....and loudly! 

Edited October 24, 2013 by shedhead

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

UKMO don't buy the EC solution as of 00z. They also modified their own GM. Given the Monday development is due to current jetstream perturbation over Pacific, running across Rockies in next 24-36hrs, it's unsurprising how model handling continues to oscillate.Oh ps: no 12z NAE today in case anyone wonders why it's absent on any websites.

That certainly puts it into perspective.....

[Troubleatmill]

Well this is the chart I am getting from the above posted link!!

Yes it has updated....as with our winters normally..blink and you will miss it lol

[beng]

If we get the storm on Monday down here (in SE England) - we have a major problem I think as the mild start to Autumn means trees are mainly still in leaf, and we have fairly sodden ground to boot. The final factor is that we've not had a really big gale down here since 1991 - meaning nothing has come along to remove the weak trees/branches.  Anything producing gusts over 80MPH, at rush hour on a Monday will be an extreme event with 'big' damage (even accounting for it being half-term week and less traffic).

[shedhead]

fergieweather, on 23 Oct 2013 - 17:02, said:

UKMO don't buy the EC solution as of 00z. They also modified their own GM. Given the Monday development is due to current jetstream perturbation over Pacific, running across Rockies in next 24-36hrs, it's unsurprising how model handling continues to oscillate.

Oh ps: no 12z NAE today in case anyone wonders why it's absent on any websites.

 

 

 

That certainly puts it into perspective.....

But it was posted yesterday afternoon....so given it's main contention there seems little point in alluding to it now imo.

Edited October 24, 2013 by shedhead

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

The latest fax charts show the strongest winds targeting northern france, haven't we been here once before.... I know the interaction with the jet is different this time but I currently think there is a good chance the worst part of the developing storm will miss the uk and hit the channel islands and n.france..at this stage I would call it as a near miss, as did mr fish. 

The 84 hour FAX also for 12 UTC Sunday (so 12 hours closer) shows this little beast coming towards us.

 

 

In it we have an Upper warm front, hotly pursued by 2 sets of mid latitude fronts which themselves are joined by a minor trough.  The forecaster doing that must have spent ages thinking how he could interpret the info he saw in front of hime

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

But it was posted yesterday afternoon....so given it's main contention there seems little point in alluding to it now imo.

Yes it was, and I've only just seen it.  It also says the disturbance would be over the Rockies/Canada by now, so it's still pertinent.  If it was Tuesday, I'd agree with you

[Frosty.]

The GFS 06z op run shows high pressure buiding across the southeast of the uk later next week with a fine but rather cool spell with an increasing risk of overnight frost and fog, this run really throws a spanner in the works as far as a continuous unsettled outlook is concerned although it's only a brief reprieve before the atlantic roars in again and towards the end of the run it's turning significantly colder with even colder air poised to the northwest of the BI..overall it's a good run, lots of variety and a gradually colder trend.

[Bobby]

ECM chart from the Icelandic Met, shows the low getting down to sub 972mb with lots of heavy rain across the southern half of the country.

 

[radiohead]

ECM chart from the Icelandic Met, shows the low getting down to sub 972mb with lots of heavy rain across the southern half of the country.

 

 

 

Look how tight the isobars are in the Bristol channel. Very strong winds in the southwest there.

Edited October 24, 2013 by radiohead

[Frosty.]

My reading of the latest met office update out to nov 21st 2013 is as follows :- It looks like at least the southern half of england & wales is going to be hit very hard by the storm pushing in from the southwest late sunday and throughout monday with a spell of torrential rain and severe gale to storm force ssw'ly winds transfering east across southern areas before it clears away by tuesday am but the torrential rain should cover most of england and wales up to about liverpool across to hull southwards, this is followed by relatively colder and brighter weather with scattered showers and fresh to strong nw'ly winds before the winds fall light later with a risk of a touch of frost for wednesday morning..BUT then it looks like we will be swept back into the atlantic slip stream with milder/cooler airmasses frequently alternating with strong to gale force winds at times and spells of persistent rain interspersed by brighter and showery intervals. There are then indications of a pressure rise from the south, at least for the southern half of the uk with an increasing risk of frost and fog but the northern half or third of the uk remaining unsettled and windy for much of the time. So, this met office update is pretty dismissive of the 6z op run idea of high pressure gaining a foothold for 2-3 days, it's a weak midweek atlantic ridge followed by rain and gales.

[Jo Farrow]

What was it he actually forecast?

THE CFS long range predicted it in April, it's my birthday on Monday and I looked at the chart for the 28th back in April

Deep low over UK

 

although it is late Oct, an autumn low or two is quite likely

but that beats 45days

[Frosty.]

The end of the GEFS 06Z mean is showing high pressure extending north into the south of the uk with lighter winds and overnight fog and frost but with sunny spells during the afternoons, it takes a while to get there but since the met office have been mentioning this for days now, the 6z mean looks like it's on the right track, the north (scotland & n.ireland) stays unsettled though.

[MR EXTREMES]

My reading of the latest met office update out to nov 21st 2013 is as follows :- It looks like at least the southern half of england & wales is going to be hit very hard by the storm pushing in from the southwest late sunday and throughout monday with a spell of torrential rain and severe gale to storm force ssw'ly winds transfering east across southern areas before it clears away by tuesday am but the torrential rain should cover most of england and wales up to about liverpool across to hull southwards, this is followed by relatively colder and brighter weather with scattered showers and fresh to strong nw'ly winds before the winds fall light later with a risk of a touch of frost for wednesday morning..BUT then it looks like we will be swept back into the atlantic slip stream with milder/cooler airmasses frequently alternating with strong to gale force winds at times and spells of persistent rain interspersed by brighter and showery intervals. There are then indications of a pressure rise from the south, at least for the southern half of the uk with an increasing risk of frost and fog but the northern half or third of the uk remaining unsettled and windy for much of the time. So, this met office update is pretty dismissive of the 6z op run idea of high pressure gaining a foothold for 2-3 days, it's a weak midweek atlantic ridge followed by rain and gales.

I think that's a pretty fair post to be honest frosty, whats very intresting is the very cold air mass is mostly to our north and northwest and ta times filtering into the mid alantic, the tropical sub tropical heat is certain clashing with the much colder air in the mid to north alantic what also been noticed is the strength of the jet stream its certain feeding the alantic well this autumn.

 

and the European heights rather than call them uncle barty are very strong this season and are a little concerning for any type of block or change in direction or our weather.

 

don't get me wrong its all very intresting and certainly worrying if this storm makes landfall as some models are projecting rainfall amounts are high and for us in the south there could well be some major flooding.

 

it could well be some time until the north alantic loses some of its energy with continued signs of deep lows being in control around Greenland and Iceland area.

and polar heights are not looking very good either although there still time for a winter dream setup im starting to hope that the heights in Europe will bugger of lol.

[Frosty.]

On the subject of high pressure, the GEFS 06z control run really goes against the grain and pushes well beyond the 6z op run with high pressure taking total control from wed 30th oct until almost nov 5th, the control seems to be the most bullish about a dominant anticyclonic spell evolving from the middle of next week although there are actually a lot of 6z perturbations which have an anticyclonic theme throughout most of FI...the middle of next week appears to be the crucial crossroads where either there is just a brief window of fine weather as a weak, flat atlantic ridge pushes east followed by a return to atlantic domination until at least early to mid november which is what the met office described today or for that script to be torn up with a more benign looking outlook.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Frosty.

[Gaz1985]

Looking at today's models the potential storm on Monday doesn't look THAT bad, if anything it has downgraded from a few days back when the worst of the winds were looking like being here in NW England around 60-70mph, for southern areas not really used to strong winds it might be a bit of a shock with 40 or 50mph winds along the coast but from here northwards we get these sorts of storms most Autumns a few times and we don't make any fuss about it, Sometimes lowland and coastal Scotland gets 90mph. Sure on Monday there may be a few twigs broke off trees but I can't see anything like 1987 or the Burns day storm etc.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Gibby]

Looking at today's models the potential storm on Monday doesn't look THAT bad, if anything it has downgraded from a few days back when the worst of the winds were looking like being here in NW England around 60-70mph, for southern areas not really used to strong winds it might be a bit of a shock with 40 or 50mph winds along the coast but from here northwards we get these sorts of storms most Autumns a few times and we don't make any fuss about it, Sometimes lowland and coastal Scotland gets 90mph. Sure on Monday there may be a few twigs broke off trees but I can't see anything like 1987 or the Burns day storm etc.

I think it is a little early to discount problems from this storm this soon. The development is not clear cut at the moment and we need a few model runs yet to tie this feature's detail down. 

[Gaz1985]

I think it is a little early to discount problems from this storm this soon. The development is not clear cut at the moment and we need a few model runs yet to tie this feature's detail down. 

 

Not discounting anything, I think at this stage the worst thing about this potential storm is the ground already saturated in many parts of the country

and the risk of possible flooding near rivers - also the odd branch being snapped off some trees which happens most years in many parts of the UK anyway. Nothing we haven't seen before but judging by some of the papers and hysterical flapping in news you wouldn't think it! 

Edited October 24, 2013 by Gaz1985

[phil nw.]

A few chatty type posts have been removed which really were not on topic.

Just  a request to use the other threads for those and stick to Model talk on here please folks to save clogging this thread up with irrelevant content.

 

Cheers.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

THE CFS long range predicted it in April, it's my birthday on Monday and I looked at the chart for the 28th back in AprilDeep low over UKalthough it is late Oct, an autumn low or two is quite likelybut that beats 45days

What who where? Let's hope that when the CFS had incredible northern blocking and gale force easterlies for Jan are as accurate as the April chart then?Who did it beat? what 45days?

I see that 06GFS wanst to keep the storm party going, more of the same come Guy FawkesBFTP

Edited October 24, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Steve C]

Not discounting anything, I think at this stage the worst thing about this potential storm is the ground already saturated in many parts of the countryand the risk of possible flooding near rivers - also the odd branch being snapped off some trees which happens most years in many parts of the UK anyway. Nothing we haven't seen before but judging by some of the papers and hysterical flapping in news you wouldn't think it!

I don't think major flooding is a big risk with this. Yes, heavy rain for sure, but it's not going to hang around!

[karlos1983]

975mb on the 12z GFS