Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[radiohead]

0Z ECMWF at 105 hours. 972mb and showing sustained winds of 50 knots reaching southwest coasts.

 

[karlos1983]

Is a southerly tracking storm coming????  Let's hope so....OK...likely max gust location?  I'm going for Mumbles Head at 90mph

 

BFTP

I'm sticking my neck out and going for Portland Dorset.

[Frosty.]

It's clear to see how much extra firepower the atlantic has now compared to earlier in the autumn, back in september and early october the azores anticyclone was BOSS but not any more, eg.. on the Ecm 00z the azores high builds in across northern france instead of the uk and can only extend a temporary weak ridge into southern/se areas for a time later next week, the jet is too strong and further south, this run shows the uk on the cold side of the PFJ much more often than not with the very unsettled and at times, stormy spell continuing with barely a break, also, the airmasses constantly chop and change with no two days the same, milder sectors rapidly alternate with much cooler north atlantic sourced air and occasional polar maritime incursions. I think the uk is going to continue to be the battleground between the colder denser air to the north and the azores warmth trying to push back in, all it will mean is a lot more rain and gales, occasional stormy conditions with temps alternating between moderately mild and rather cold.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Frosty.

[karlos1983]

It's clear to see how much extra firepower the atlantic has now compared to earlier in the autumn, back in september and early october the azores anticyclone was BOSS but not any more, eg.. on the Ecm 00z the azores high builds in across northern france instead of the uk and can only extend a temporary weak ridge into southern/se areas for a time later next week, the jet is too strong and further south, this run shows the uk on the cold side of the PFJ much more often than not with the very unsettled and at times, stormy spell continuing with barely a break, also, the airmasses constantly chop and change with no two days the same, milder sectors rapidly alternate with much cooler north atlantic sourced air and occasional polar maritime incursions. I think the uk is going to continue to be the battleground between the colder denser air to the north and the azores warmth trying to push back in, all it will mean is a lot more rain and gales, occasional stormy conditions with temps alternating between moderately mild and rather cold.

 

A very good post Frosty, sums up the current output very well think. At least the Blow torch that was looking likely to have an impact on the early Euroaisia snow didn't really develop. Snow/Ice cover still present and building. The 31 day animation is worth a look, quite impressive how quickly it spread, especially the Ice!

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

 

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

So the typically Autumn weather that is currently in full swing is not concerning to me, the cold is there and hopefully we can tap into it in a few weeks time when it is more widespread and deeper cold!

 

In the meantime, I'm personally looking forward to the potential of a decent Autumn storm of note come Monday morning!

[Troubleatmill]

Just for fun the CFS is showing its first snows of the winter for us :s! great looking chart think it will happen!!!!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=996&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

[Summer Sun]

GFS ensemble has the centre of the low at 970mb north of Scotland

 

 

As does the ECM ensemble

 

 

The Met office give Darlo a max gust speed of 37mph for Monday hopefully that's the worst it will get

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I remember Nov/Dec 2011 after Edinburgh recorded 100 MPH winds through the city centre, we were forecasted a similar track of a damaging S Coast storm, much like this forecasted one. It ended up affecting Mid/N France and we actually saw snow over N Home Counties areas, Dunstable saw quite Moderate snow in fact! 

A forecasters nightmare at the moment for this, the path of the low will be crucial as to where sees the strongest winds. At the moment, the South Coast would cop for some extreme wind, whilst over the Midlands, rain will be more of a talking point. Things could change significantly though.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Looking like a non event for Northern Ireland on Monday according to the Meto - can't say I am too disappointed with that being my birthday and all that

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Drier, brighter start to Saturday then wet and windy. Bright interludes and heavy showers on Sunday and still quite windy. Drier with sunny spells and lighter winds on Monday

[radiohead]

GFS ensemble has the centre of the low at 970mb north of Scotland

 

 

As does the ECM ensemble

 

 

The Met office give Darlo a max gust speed of 37mph for Monday hopefully that's the worst it will get

 

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

The low on those ensemble charts is a low tracking eastward from the southern tip of Greenland, it is not the same low which the operational GFS and ECMWF shows developing in the southwest and heading over southern UK. It's not clearly seen on ensemble mean charts because of members that don't develop it cancel out the signal from those that do.

 

 

Edited October 24, 2013 by radiohead

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

All models show Low pressure moving up towards Ireland from the SW over the next 34 hours or so. A ridge of High pressure today will keep most places dry and bright with cloud and a freshening SE breeze reaching the SW by dusk. Rain follows NE and reaches most areas by tomorrow with clearer, mild and showers conditions affecting the South tomorrow while the North stays wet. Through the weekend further troughs advance East off the Atlantic with a rash of showers and strong winds or all later Saturday and Sunday. On Sunday night and into Monday the jury seems to remain out on the potential for a stormy spell of weather as a small, fast moving but significant Low moves East across the South with severe gales, heavy rain and then squally showers rattling through. It will feel rather cold over the UK through this period.

 

GFS then shows a rapid pressure rise with a ridge crossing East over the UK midweek with drier , quieter and less rainy weather with the South probably becoming completely dry for a time. Elsewhere mild SW winds return with some rain at times, occasionally reaching the SE on weakening cold fronts as they pass. Later in the run High pressure plays a bigger role over the South for a time, extending in from Europe with frost and fog patches night and morning. The North sees more injections of mild Atlantic SW winds and rain which occasionally still reaches down into the SE. Temperatures throughout would be rather mild in the SW flows but occasionally rather chilly behind cold fronts and any clear nights in the drier spells across the misty South.

 

UKMO this morning shows a weak ridge of High pressure crossing the UK following the very disturbed and stormy period of early in the week. As a result a dry and quiet day is expected next Wednesday before fronts and a renewed injection of SW winds bring further rain back across the North and West especially soon after Day 6.

 

GEM shows just a squally trough rather than a storm moving quickly East on Monday. Pressure is then shown to rise, especially across the South with a lot of dry and rather mild weather developing thereafter with High pressure held over Europe while the North keeps the Atlantic onslaught going with wind and rain moving West to East at times. Temperatures look to be near or rather above normal in the South later and far from cold in the unsettled North as well.

 

NAVGEM makes little or nothing of the storm early in the week with just a strong blustery conventional Westerly flow carrying a mix of sunshine and squally showers up to midweek. Thereafter it does differ somewhat in as much as it prefers to keep Low pressure close to all of the British Isles with attendant rain and showers continuing for all in average temperatures.

 

ECM does whistle a rapidly deepening Low across the South on Monday morning with the risk of severe gales in the extreme South while the general pattern of unsettled and strong wind weather pattern remains in place throughout next week with a drier interlude possible around midweek.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a typically unsettled and Autumnal pattern with an oscillating set of members pulsing on the mild and cold side of average throughout though never markedly so. As a result the general consensus is that the weather will remain Atlantic based with rain at times throughout the next few weeks with little to be relied upon dry and settled weather. Temperatures should remain near, or just above and below the long term mean throughout.

 

The Jet Stream is currently positioning itself over the Atlantic and the UK once tomorrows Low has moved North and become absorbed in the Atlantic flow. It doesn't look like straying far from that position either anytime soon blowing very strongly at times.

 

In Summary the main talking point is how the development of Sunday/Monday storm system develops if at all and where. Little is any clearer today with some output ignoring any chance at all while ECM , UKMO and ECM show potential for a short but worrying period when storm force winds are possible over the highly populated South on Monday. Things then look like settling down briefly midweek but there is plenty of support for the Atlantic to quickly regain momentum with further wind and rain likely for all. It does look like there is a chance of some more prolonged drier interludes in the South later where mist, fog and frost may develop briefly but overall there is nothing for 'cold lovers' to hang there hopes on while the Atlantic stays in such vigorous mode and High pressure remains over Southern Europe.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

[AWD]

GFS ensemble has the centre of the low at 970mb north of Scotland

As does the ECM ensemble

The Met office give Darlo a max gust speed of 37mph for Monday hopefully that's the worst it will get

That's not the potential distruptive low Gav. The low on the EC ens is less clear than on Operational output due to it being mixed out with non-developing perbs, but it's roughly where I've circled below;

It all depends on it's interaction with the Jet Stream as to whether it is a harmless wave like feature or something more severe. It's quite possible it could be a Southern England affair too, amongst many other possible options, so your location could receive much less of an impact compared to other locations.

Should hopefully become a tad clearer when hourly interspersed high res modelling becomes available to us nearer the time.

[pandit-scholar]

Just for fun the CFS is showing its first snows of the winter for us :s! great looking chart think it will happen!!!! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=996&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

That chart must have changed a few minutes ago as to me it is shows a blowtorch with a huge vortex around Greenland, and upper temperatures of 8 degrees in Southern England. Edited October 24, 2013 by pandit-scholar

[Summer Sun]

Apparently the Met Office has issued "extreme weather warnings" as 90mph gales threaten to lash coastal regions, with 80mph winds uprooting trees and ­damaging buildings inland.

 

I must be missing something as I can't see any "extreme weather warnings" of course it had to be in today's Daily Express

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/438817/Lightning-strikes-as-biggest-storm-since-1987-sweeps-in

Edited October 24, 2013 by Summer Sun

[karlos1983]

That chart must have changed a few minutes ago as to me it is shows a blowtorch with a huge vortex around Greenland, and upper temperatures of 8 degrees in Southern England.

 

This is not a blow torch, this is white out across southern England

 

[Methuselah]

Apparently the Met Office has issued "extreme weather warnings" as 90mph gales threaten to lash coastal regions, with 80mph winds uprooting trees and ­damaging buildings inland.

 

I must be missing something as I can't see any "extreme weather warnings" of course it had to be in today's Daily Express

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/438817/Lightning-strikes-as-biggest-storm-since-1987-sweeps-in

And lo-and-behold Powell says it's gonna be brutal!

[Frosty.]

There will be difficult driving and walking conditions tomorrow morning with strong winds, torrential rain, lots of spray and surface water with big puddles, the whole mass of torrential rain pushing north through the whole of the uk but followed by drier and brighter weather from the southwest as the day goes on but then with showers spreading in later.

[Jo Farrow]

Looking like a non event for Northern Ireland on Monday according to the Meto - can't say I am too disappointed with that being my birthday and all that

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Drier, brighter start to Saturday then wet and windy. Bright interludes and heavy showers on Sunday and still quite windy. Drier with sunny spells and lighter winds on Monday

Me too! although I do't mind some exciting weather for Monday

[radiohead]

06Z GFS has Monday's low about 20mb weaker and further south.

[snowmadchrisuk]

06Z GFS has Monday's low about 20mb weaker and further south.

 

15mb Weaker compared to the 00z , but it still has the low and we don't know how much it is likely to wind up until much nearer the time... Southern England would still get a fair old storm out of the 6z GFS. 

[karlos1983]

15mb Weaker compared to the 00z , but it still has the low and we don't know how much it is likely to wind up until much nearer the time... Southern England would still get a fair old storm out of the 6z GFS. 

 

Southern Denmark and North Germany are in for a pounding!!

 

[radiohead]

15mb Weaker compared to the 00z , but it still has the low and we don't know how much it is likely to wind up until much nearer the time... Southern England would still get a fair old storm out of the 6z GFS. 

 

I agree, the track and intensity will probably change from run to run until the weekend when it gets into NAE and the other hi res models territory.

[Frosty.]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqs1YXfdtGE

 

The latest fax charts show the strongest winds targeting northern france, haven't we been here once before.... I know the interaction with the jet is different this time but I currently think there is a good chance the worst part of the developing storm will miss the uk and hit the channel islands and n.france..at this stage I would call it as a near miss, as did mr fish. 

[snowmadchrisuk]

The latest fax charts show the strongest winds targeting northern france, haven't we been here once before.... I know the interaction with the jet is different this time but I currently think there is a good chance the worst part of the developing storm will miss the uk and hit the channel islands and n.france..at this stage I would call it as a near miss, as did mr fish. 

 

Possibly although on that fax SW England and extreme Southern England would still get some extreme winds especially places like Torquay .

[Summer Sun]

Monday is very uncertain still with two 985mb lows over us

 

 

 

Thankfully wind speeds remain fairly low for many inland areas with only coastal districts prone to stronger winds

 

[Frosty.]

The GFS 06z op run shows the far southwest, then southern coastal counties & southeast england taking a battering from severe gale to storm force s'ly to ssw'ly winds and also a spell of torrential rain pushing northeastwards across the southern half of the uk... so yes it could be a destructive spell for the south on sunday night into monday before the system blows away.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Frosty.