Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

PIP22 asked

Is the Moon out next week? If it does we will expect a storm surge.

 

 

 

If it follows the track shown on the 00:00 run, we would get higher tides but a surge would be unlikely as the storm runs into the continent quite quickly.

 

Tides are Neap next week, so lower than they would be if the moon was full or new, and the highest winds are South-Westerly, when the back to the North-West or North, the wind speed has dropped considerably.

 

The worst possible track for wind is what is being modelled at the moment, but as Coast said in a regional thread, "I can't remember the last time we were staring down a low pressure gun barrel like this, but I'm sure it was within the last 2 years and of course it never came off as badly as first forecast like this at 5/6 days away. Just one to watch I guess and hope it's only a bin-blower at worst."

 

Further North and Ireland will get it first, further South and it will be France.  Whichever way it runs, I think it will be more that a little blow.

Edited October 23, 2013 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Boro Snow]

isnt the storm what everybody is talking about the remnants of tropical storm lorenzo currently out in the atlantic

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

isnt the storm what everybody is talking about the remnants of tropical storm lorenzo currently out in the atlantic

I think Lorenzo was further South East.  Someone will correct me if I'm wrong :-)  Although the 564DAM line is further North than usual because of Lorenzo. 

 

Looking again at the NHC and then the FAX chart, you could be right.

Edited October 23, 2013 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[summer blizzard]

isnt the storm what everybody is talking about the remnants of tropical storm lorenzo currently out in the atlantic

 

 

I think Lorenzo was further South East.  Someone will correct me if I'm wrong :-)  Although the 564DAM line is further North than usual because of Lorenzo. 

 

Looking again at the NHC and then the FAX chart, you could be right.

 

Nope. Not only is Lorenzo much weaker by that point but he's near the Azores than Canada.

Edited October 23, 2013 by summer blizzard

[cobbett]

I thought it was Lorenzo but beefed up by merging with another low pressure system

[summer blizzard]

I thought it was Lorenzo but beefed up by merging with another low pressure system

 

This is Lorenzo..

 

 

This is our system...

 

[Gael_Force]

I doubt Lorenzo is involved when you look t the five day track.

 

[cobbett]

Ok , thanks GF and  SB for clarifying

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean continues to show a very turbulent pattern and barely has time to draw breath, it's a very unsettled and potentially stormy spell ahead of us and the current very mild conditions will be watered down through the weekend and washed away for a large chunk of next week with much chillier air sweeping down from the northwest, it looks like becoming cold enough across the scottish highest hills & mountains for snow with a mix of sleet and hail penetrating down to lower levels across the far north for a time. By the middle of next week, a very brief lull in the unsettled weather as an atlantic ridge rushes east and could mean a midweek frost for some areas but we are soon swept back into the very unsettled pattern although temperatures begin to recover a little, but nothing like as mild as today. Indeed, the mean shows the unsettled spell persisting and is much less inclined to settle down beyond T+240 hours like the Ecm 00z op run, it could remain unsettled with alternating Tropical maritime and cooler/colder oceanic and polar maritime air for weeks to come, with the risk of further damaging winds and localized flooding. 

Edited October 23, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

So for Monday the big 3 all offer different solutions for this low with GFS looking the worst currently

 

 

Out of the 3 ECM is probably the one which would bring the lightest winds

 

 

Quite a big difference between GFS and ECM at just t120

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

So for Monday the big 3 all offer different solutions for this low with GFS looking the worst currently

 

 

Out of the 3 ECM is probably the one which would bring the lightest winds

 

 

Quite a big difference between GFS and ECM at just t120

Hi SS,

 

I think the UKMO is predicting the low running about 12 hours behind the GFS, comparison between T120 GFS with T132 UKMO I think would be better (But as it doesn't exist) as the T144 chart shows the low in the North Sea at 980mb

 

Also as I said on the Regionals, the ECM doesn't quite ring true to me, the low is right on the border between cool and very warm air and yet it doesn't deepen at all, whereas GFS and UKMO deepen substantially

Edited October 23, 2013 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[radiohead]

Not to forget the 0Z GEM....

 

 

12Z runs should be interesting.

[Summer Sun]

Hi SS,

 

I think the UKMO is predicting the low running about 12 hours behind the GFS, comparison between T120 GFS with T132 UKMO I think would be better

 

Also as I said on the Regionals, the ECM doesn't quite ring true to me, the low is right on the border between cool and very warm air and yet it doesn't deepen at all, whereas GFS and UKMO deepen substantially

 

This is GFS at 00z

 

 

And UKMO for the same time

 

 

The ECM ens isn't far off the Op either

 

 

Op

 

[fergieweather]

Hi SS,I think the UKMO is predicting the low running about 12 hours behind the GFS, comparison between T120 GFS with T132 UKMO I think would be better (But as it doesn't exist) as the T144 chart shows the low in the North Sea at 980mbAlso as I said on the Regionals, the ECM doesn't quite ring true to me, the low is right on the border between cool and very warm air and yet it doesn't deepen at all, whereas GFS and UKMO deepen substantially

UKMO don't buy the EC solution as of 00z. They also modified their own GM. Given the Monday development is due to current jetstream perturbation over Pacific, running across Rockies in next 24-36hrs, it's unsurprising how model handling continues to oscillate. Oh ps: no 12z NAE today in case anyone wonders why it's absent on any websites.

[Zenarcher]

GFS 12z looks more similar to the ECM 00z by sending the low further South,

 

GFS 12z 1am 28th

 

 

ECM 00z 1am 28th

 

 

On the 06z run this morning from the GFS it had the low over Ireland at this point so certainly a change in position.

[Summer Sun]

As said above GFS seems to be moving towards ECM this afternoon once that low pulls away we get what looks to be a weak ridge of high pressure

 

[Summer Sun]

Just as GFS moves towards ECM

 

UKMO throws us this

 

 

GFS

 

 

Anyone's guess still for t120

[Zenarcher]

The UKMO sticks with the low and it looks similar to yesterdays 12z run,

 

Yesterday

 

 

Today

 

 

Out of the main 3 the GFS has moved over to the ECM which shows a much weaker low to the UKMO.

Edited October 23, 2013 by weathermaster

[radiohead]

12Z UKMO track appears to be further north and stronger than the GFS.

 

Also interesting that at 72 hours, the other low, south of Greenland on the UKMO is more intense and much further east on the GFS at the same time.

Edited October 23, 2013 by radiohead

[Tom Jarvis]

UKMO has a deep low

so one says yes and one says no who will be right

[AWD]

With the main model frames 6/12/24 hours apart from each other (dependant on which model), it's hard to gauge a true insight into a regional basis for where any severe weather may occur. The severest of the winds could only be a 2 hour event for example, and thus happen inbetween a set of frames for a specific time.

High res modelling nearer the time might help evaluate a more precise and regionally specific insight into any severe weather that may occur.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO pulls the low away pretty quickly

 

[Dancerwithwings]

UKMO has a deep low

so one says yes and one says no who will be right

 

At 5-6 days before it hits and that's if it does.... Nobody knows... With a low that deep and the way the jet stream is it's anybody's guess!

 

[Frosty.]

I picked out this little beauty from the GEFS 06z perturbations, it shows the type of pattern I would like to see as we move through early to mid november with the jet becoming aligned nw/se with reloads of colder polar maritime or better still, arctic air and a continuation of the very unsettled & sometimes stormy weather pattern, there are plenty of perturbations which support a generally unsettled outlook and thankfully, not many boring benign solutions, hopefully the 12z will continue this trend. : - )

[The PIT]

Aahha something of interest at T87 which should within the reliable time frame. Hopefully the pressure gradient will tighten and we may get the first autumn storm here. Looking interesting for the South West and Ireland with gusts into the 60's. Again though it looks like south Yorkshire will be under 50 mph gusts though. North Yorks may get into the 50's though at the present time.

UKMo more interesting and that one looks like it could do a bit of damage.

Edited October 23, 2013 by The PIT