Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[bluearmy]

I'm determined to try and get a better handle on pacific teleconnections this year... so I have to ask this dumb question. Alaskan high and Aleutian low. OK - but to my very untrained eye the aleutians sit directly south of Alaska. How can the aleutian trough be downstream of an alaskan high? Does an aleutian low not actually pump up an alaskan high as per next week?

 

i meant upstream ................... doh

 

on the other side of the NH, we have the following ref points heading from east to west:  kamkatchka, aleutians, alaska.  not geographically exact but for our purposes, it works so we know what we all mean.

Edited October 31, 2013 by bluearmy

[Catacol]

i meant upstream ................... doh

 

on the other side of the NH, we have the following ref points heading from east to west:  kamkatchka, aleutians, alaska.  not geographically exact but for our purposes, it works so we know what we all mean.

 

Thanks.

 

GP used to talk quite a bit about pressure patterns in the pacific teleconnecting to patterns in the atlantic. Not quite a Strat question I guess, but where is this kind of interpretation based? Is there data out there that can point us to this kind of conclusion?

[cooling climate]

Here is one for you Phil http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450(1964)003%3C0001%3ATMWSWA%3E2.0.CO%3B2

 

Re Canadian Warmings, this post from last year thread from Gael Force located the paper with the definitions.

 

Here is a copy of the definition to save you clicking around. 

 

2.4 Canadian WarmingThe fourth type of warming, a Canadian warming is actually a hybrid; a minorwarming disguised as a major warming. At first, a Canadian warming looks like amajor warming, in which the easterly winds replace the zonal westerly flow in thepolar latitudes. However, a closer examination of this phenomenon shows that thewesterly polar night jet has not really been destroyed, as in a major warming, butis displaced south of 60°N and, usually, relocated over southern Siberia. Canadianwarmings set up when an intense strengthening of the Aleutian High forces the highto build into northern Canada. The warm air and easterly winds associated with thehigh displace the cold polar vortex, pushing it south into Siberia, causing easterlyflow in the high latitudes (Labitzke, 1977). When the Aleutian High weakens, thepolar vortex pushes northward and the stratosphere returns to its normal winter

 

circulation.

I posted the link below (weather and circulation of Jan 63) in the weather history

thread a couple of days ago and ties in well with the excellent link you have posted.

Edited October 31, 2013 by cooling climate

[Cheshire Freeze]

To me this looks exactly like how the warming started last year? You can see the vortex starting to be squeezed there? And it seems to be heading in the direction of Canada?

 

Edited October 31, 2013 by CreweCold

[cooling climate]

Here is the link for the weather and circulation of Jan 1963

winter 63.pdf

[johnholmes]

or one could link to this site and see the actual charts

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=1&hour=0&year=1871&map=4&mode=2

[feb1991blizzard]

To me this looks exactly like how the warming started last year? You can see the vortex starting to be squeezed there? And it seems to be heading in the direction of Canada?

 

 

 

I think warmer temperatures started to make a dig in from the opposite side of the pole though, there is not enough stratospheric ridging, the vortex looks stronger, the warming looks to be weakening before it makes an impact to my untrained eye.

[John Badrick]

I think warmer temperatures started to make a dig in from the opposite side of the pole though, there is not enough stratospheric ridging, the vortex looks stronger, the warming looks to be weakening before it makes an impact to my untrained eye.

Thoughts on this chiono,recreto,interitus?

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think warmer temperatures started to make a dig in from the opposite side of the pole though, there is not enough stratospheric ridging, the vortex looks stronger, the warming looks to be weakening before it makes an impact to my untrained eye.

 

Latest GFS run ramps up the warming even more

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Thoughts on this chiono,recreto,interitus?

 

 

Sorry just to clarify, when I say they started to dig in from the opposite side, I mean the opposite side from the UK, but they seemed to really dig in making an anvil shaped green slither through the stratospheric vortex, making its way down from the upper mid strat to the middle and of course then propagating to  the troposphere disrupting the tropospheric vortex which subsided around the 11th jan.

Latest GFS run ramps up the warming even more

 

 

 

It ( the core) is stretched a little bit but either needs to be shifted or split.

Edited October 31, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Cheshire Freeze]

Sorry just to clarify, when I say they started to dig in from the opposite side, I mean the opposite side from the UK, but they seemed to really dig in making an anvil shaped green slither through the stratospheric vortex, making its way down from the upper mid strat to the middle and of course then propagating to  the troposphere disrupting the tropospheric vortex which subsided around the 11th jan.

 

 

It ( the core) is stretched a little bit but either needs to be shifted or split.

 

True but either way the core looks to be shifting to the Scandi side to my eyes?

[Gael_Force]

I think warmer temperatures started to make a dig in from the opposite side of the pole though, there is not enough stratospheric ridging, the vortex looks stronger, the warming looks to be weakening before it makes an impact to my untrained eye.

 

29/12/12  

 

 

07/01/13  

[feb1991blizzard]

29/12/12  

 

 

07/01/13  

 

if we could get those charts verifying in the near future we would be in business, any way that's enough from me now, I will leave it to the experts.

[lorenzo]

That latest warming reminds me off something akin to don't poke the hornets nest.. You might a) wake them up b.) or get them agitated. 

 

Last time I saw this posted it was stalling and now has taken a plummet.

 

 

Lots of different strat charts to pick from but this caught the eye at 30hpa. In the mid range ECM, a very solid looking vortex.

 

Chiono will be able to clarify how they make that temp graph am sure it isn't as simple as taking the low temp from the Berlin prediction. Even still the 30 hpa run indicates a further 6 degree drop in minimum temp, out til the 9th November.

 

Already an interesting watch..

Edited October 31, 2013 by lorenzo

[weatherguy]

Just wondering what sort of record there is for cold winters, or at least exceptional short bursts of cold, in a +NAO winter with a strong PV?  I know we want a -NAO in an ideal world, but with a +NAO keeping the cold bottled in, surely if that does manage to burst down south at one point or another the depth of cold pooling would be much more favourable for us.  Just some casual thought, not suggesting either way the possibility of a +NAO/-NAO here.

[cooling climate]

or one could link to this site and see the actual charts

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=1&hour=0&year=1871&map=4&mode=2

 

Which I can assure you I have done. The link I gave explains the anomalies in the

troposphere in the northern hemisphere (both pressure patterns and wind) which

may not be apparent when looking at the meteociel charts.

 

 

On a different note here is the stratosphere warming at 10hpa on the

9th of January 1991 which almost certainly was a precurser to the infamous

freeze of February 91.

The positioning reminds me of the end of Jan 09 warming although the easterly

that followed was not in the same league as that of 91.

On the Berlin strat site I see that they have the SSW warming down as February

but this is obviously not the case. Strange really as I found this stratosphere

chart on their site as well.

Edited November 1, 2013 by cooling climate

[Cloud 10]

That latest warming reminds me off something akin to don't poke the hornets nest.. You might a) wake them up b.) or get them agitated. 

 

Last time I saw this posted it was stalling and now has taken a plummet.

 

pole30_nh.gif

 

Lots of different strat charts to pick from but this caught the eye at 30hpa. In the mid range ECM, a very solid looking vortex.

ecmwf30f168.gif

 

Chiono will be able to clarify how they make that temp graph am sure it isn't as simple as taking the low temp from the Berlin prediction. Even still the 30 hpa run indicates a further 6 degree drop in minimum temp, out til the 9th November.

 

Already an interesting watch..

 

I wonder how low those 10 hpa temps. will get this year?.

 

Certainly got  well below average the last two years before those sharp warming's.

 

[blizzardof96]

Some interesting trends developing with regards to the stratosphere....

 

The vortex has began to strengthen again and upper stratospheric temps are beginning to return to near or below normal levels. Been looking more into stratospheric analogs for the upcoming few months, based on a -PDO, neutral ONI and +QBO state. Best years include 78-79, 01-02, 90-91, 61-62 and 66-67. In these analogs we saw a tendency to see early winter CW's with December 78 and 66 showing this response.

Dec 1978 warming at 10hpa:

Tropospheric response shows a very anomalous alaskan block with CPF evident from siberia to NA. There was also a very strong -VE anomaly across western europe/ east asia with a gradient pattern look for the UK and what appears to be a very active storm track.

 

In Dec 1966 the CW response was greater across the mid and lower level of the stratosphere with a similar 500mb setup afterwords. Notice how the western siberian block becomes dominant with mean troughiness across the mid latitudes.

 

 

Besides these two years in the data set I found that 61-62 had no Major SSW events. 90-91 had a Major late winter warming. In the 01-02 season, despite several significant disruptions to the upper vortex, it was tough for these warm anoms to down well, which made minimal impact on the surface pattern until spring.

What may end up occurring this year is we either see a significant warming early on in the winter or we see no major warming's at all until Late feb into April. The stratosphere looks increasingly vulnerable to some sort of early winter response, especially if we see the MJO moving into phases 4-7 by DEC. This would help force an EAMT surge with bering sea troughiness and a wave 1 response.

 

If their is no DEC warming, we could see a FW with a heightened HT effect coming into play this year. This would become more likely if solar activity drops off and we can get help from tropical forcing as KW's upwell warmth over the western tropical pacific. The ENSO modelling is honing in on this type of situation, although the -PDO forcing will try to resist any FW attempt.  Many factors coming into play here but the two period's to watch closest this winter look to be Dec and late winter.

Cheers,

Ethan

Edited November 1, 2013 by blizzardof96

[smithyweather]

So what is this whole thing? Why is a cold stratosphere bad and what happens if it warms up?

[chionomaniac]

So what is this whole thing? Why is a cold stratosphere bad and what happens if it warms up?

If you read a book from the start rather than opening it in the middle then you may find that you need not ask the questions.

[chionomaniac]

On another note we can see that the forecast page has opened on the berlin site. Interestingly the cooling of the strat is not straightforward with the mean zonal mean winds in the middle strat not dipping as one might expect.

 

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=all&alert=1&lng=eng

 

 

There is also an omnipresent GFS upper strat warming forecast at T+384 at 1 hPa - the same as last year - eventually it became reality!

[Summer Sun]

Not sure what this means for the UK but Matt Hugo has tweeted this

 

Bit of a blip but temps across the pole are now back to near avg. Question is; how low will they go this side of Xmas

 

Edited November 2, 2013 by Summer Sun

[bluearmy]

On another note we can see that the forecast page has opened on the berlin site. Interestingly the cooling of the strat is not straightforward with the mean zonal mean winds in the middle strat not dipping as one might expect.

 

fluxes.gif

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=all&alert=1&lng=eng

 

 

There is also an omnipresent GFS upper strat warming forecast at T+384 at 1 hPa - the same as last year - eventually it became reality!

 

ecm's run from yesterdays data upped the wave 1 strength later on compared to previous runs.  something to be watched

[Buriedundersnow]

On another note we can see that the forecast page has opened on the berlin site. Interestingly the cooling of the strat is not straightforward with the mean zonal mean winds in the middle strat not dipping as one might expect.

 

fluxes.gif

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=all&alert=1&lng=eng

 

 

There is also an omnipresent GFS upper strat warming forecast at T+384 at 1 hPa - the same as last year - eventually it became reality!

 

small question and if this is just stupid please dismiss

 

you mentioned an upper strat warming at 1hpa now looking at the charts to my untrained eye as you go down it gets weaker ( I may be wrong ) does that mean this is a top down as opposed to the bottom up like we have been seeing with the wave activity and would this mean as its starting at the top if it came to fruition it would be a proper strat warming instead of wave activity.

 

ie if it starts at the top is it always a warming or can wave activity also start at the top of the strat.

 

 

like I said might be a stupid question but I am trying to learn a little and hopefully when I get more time I will go through some of the teleconective papers in the other thread to see what I can manage to take in.

 

also I have stolen these charts from other posts hope this isn't an issue just needed to show which ones I was on about.

 

could someone give me links to find these so I can add to my favourites

 

[Gael_Force]

I'm guessing most of what is on this list will have appeared somewhere in our various threads - might be a useful one-stop for members new to the subject.

 

http://p-martineau.com/stratospheric-sudden-warming-references/