Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[Recretos]

I think he is referring to the timeframe after the projected warming starting at 200hrs+,  he means if that came of then the Stratospheric PV wouldn't be able to recover for the rest of the season.

 

Exactly. I added the "384h" timestamp on the graphics.

 

Latest runs are trying to keep at it, some more, some less. I made the full globe profile to give the idea of the QBO also, which is kinda in a weak +ve mode (max. 12m/s +ve zonal component) and slowly receding, with the stronger -ve phase already waiting for its turn. Notice also how the south pole is forecasted to be in the initial stages of the cold season, which is normal for second half of March. 

 

 

Temperature wise, the expected shift in the temperature "balance of power" is leaning more towards the N. hem. the more we go into spring. It is most evident in the upper parts of the stratosphere. 

 

 

Speaking of upper strat, it is fun to watch how the upper layers of the stratosphere always have more dynamics than the mid levels, due to all the wave dispersions and other processes. It almost gives a feeling of its own topography (which would kinda make sense). Tho this is only a forecast, it is a good example.

 

 

Another thing evident on the 18z (and some previous runs), is that warming "blob" in mid-upper strat, which is not really related to the general slow warming of the strat. in spring. It is seems to be a result of E. Asian activities. An actual strato warming (what else ).

 

 

 

It is more notable on the lat/lon cross sections, with really obvious and expected tilting. Normally I wouldn't to this for FI in just any run, but I am already testing this for the next season, trying to look at temp. profiles over MT/FT events.

 

 

 

The control run from the JMA weeklies was also trying to have a go at something in this range, with a decent Z-component of the EP-flux in the 40-5 layer. 

 

 

 

Bring on the next season, so I can put all these graphics into real use!

Best regards.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Just wanted to say thanks to Recretos Chino and all the others who have contributed to this superb thread over the last 4 months.

Just one last question for the experts,any thoughts on spring summer 2014?

[KyleHenry]

Wave 1 is through the gate. Current model outputs ECM 0z and UKMO 12z shows an Arctic high formed then push out towards Alaska and NE Canada, then back over Arctic again.

PV split by the 27th,28th of March.

Wave 2 incoming.

It can be said that in a year of extremely low stratosphere temps at all levels and west based QBO the MJO gets no chance to influence at all.

Chino saw the ultra strong PV from distance. With that insight for future Winters with similar factors. Mild and stormy Winters can be predicated I feel. Strong Canadian PV has predictable outcome for NW Europe. Would mean no looking at models good or bad thing? Lol

[aginob]

hi to all

 

i missing ( special ) models from user recretos

including synopsis

[Cloud 10]

Finally!

 

Reverse zonal winds at 60N at 10 hpa (albeit at 240 hrs)

 

 

 

Maybe a touch to late. 

[damianslaw]

Wave 1 is through the gate. Current model outputs ECM 0z and UKMO 12z shows an Arctic high formed then push out towards Alaska and NE Canada, then back over Arctic again.PV split by the 27th,28th of March.Wave 2 incoming.It can be said that in a year of extremely low stratosphere temps at all levels and west based QBO the MJO gets no chance to influence at all.Chino saw the ultra strong PV from distance. With that insight for future Winters with similar factors. Mild and stormy Winters can be predicated I feel. Strong Canadian PV has predictable outcome for NW Europe. Would mean no looking at models good or bad thing? Lol

 

 

Has there been a winter which has delivered cold to these shores combined with a strong Canadian PV or is this a death knell for UK cold. I always though a PV over Greenland was a guaranteed cold killer, but not necessarily a PV over Canada, in a normal winter we should have seen a strong mid atlantic ridge, and consequently a cold snowy winter - alas other factors combined with the strong PV over Canada caused the jet to get stuck in one position. The exceptionally strong west based QBO was probably the crucial factor which killed the chance of any cold incursions this winter.

[KyleHenry]

Has there been a winter which has delivered cold to these shores combined with a strong Canadian PV or is this a death knell for UK cold. I always though a PV over Greenland was a guaranteed cold killer, but not necessarily a PV over Canada, in a normal winter we should have seen a strong mid atlantic ridge, and consequently a cold snowy winter - alas other factors combined with the strong PV over Canada caused the jet to get stuck in one position. The exceptionally strong west based QBO was probably the crucial factor which killed the chance of any cold incursions this winter.

Apologies should have read NE Canada and Greenland

Edited March 19, 2014 by KyleHenry

[feb1991blizzard]

Finally!

 

Reverse zonal winds at 60N at 10 hpa (albeit at 240 hrs)

 

ecmwfzm_u_f240.gifecmwf10f240.gif

 

 

Maybe a touch to late. 

 

 

Yes, no more influence from the Stratosphere now, its just whether we can get a chunk of tropospheric arctic air to sink southward with a nice surface low via a nicely tilted Greenland high,  thanks to Recretos, chiono, Lorenzo and all the other usual suspects for an informative winter although we couldn't get there in the end.

[bluearmy]

technical ssw shown at day 9 on ecm.

 

only two months too late ...............................

[Cloud 10]

Looks like an early final warming of the stratosphere this year?

 

 

[Frozen Britain]

Looks like an early final warming of the stratosphere this year?

 

pole10_nh.gifpole30_nh.gif

 

ecmwfzm_u_f240 (1).gif

Isn't that the case every year? Can you compare with this time last year? Perhaps Chiono can confirm?

[feb1991blizzard]

Exactly. I added the "384h" timestamp on the graphics.

 

Latest runs are trying to keep at it, some more, some less. I made the full globe profile to give the idea of the QBO also, which is kinda in a weak +ve mode (max. 12m/s +ve zonal component) and slowly receding, with the stronger -ve phase already waiting for its turn. Notice also how the south pole is forecasted to be in the initial stages of the cold season, which is normal for second half of March. 

 

 

Temperature wise, the expected shift in the temperature "balance of power" is leaning more towards the N. hem. the more we go into spring. It is most evident in the upper parts of the stratosphere. 

 

 

Speaking of upper strat, it is fun to watch how the upper layers of the stratosphere always have more dynamics than the mid levels, due to all the wave dispersions and other processes. It almost gives a feeling of its own topography (which would kinda make sense). Tho this is only a forecast, it is a good example.

 

 

Another thing evident on the 18z (and some previous runs), is that warming "blob" in mid-upper strat, which is not really related to the general slow warming of the strat. in spring. It is seems to be a result of E. Asian activities. An actual strato warming (what else ).

 

 

 

It is more notable on the lat/lon cross sections, with really obvious and expected tilting. Normally I wouldn't to this for FI in just any run, but I am already testing this for the next season, trying to look at temp. profiles over MT/FT events.

 

 

 

The control run from the JMA weeklies was also trying to have a go at something in this range, with a decent Z-component of the EP-flux in the 40-5 layer. 

 

 

 

Bring on the next season, so I can put all these graphics into real use!

Best regards.

 

 

Yes only just over 7 months to go now!,   also would like to say that your graphics are better than any anywhere, I love the nice contrast and the real bright reds showing a significant warming but together with the heights as well, whereas on Instant weather maps you have to toggle between two, I like meteociel but they only show the 10mb level and they don't even show height, the Berlin site is excellent in terms of info but a bit bland and not as exciting as your graphics!

 

I would like to learn more during the closed season but cant get excited enough as I know its all a long way off but then I let my emotions get the better of me once it all kicks off again and the season starts.

[Cloud 10]

Isn't that the case every year? Can you compare with this time last year? Perhaps Chiono can confirm?

 

Temperatures are a lot higher at 10 mb at the moment compared to this time last year.

 

 

I wonder what April has in store this year?

[Polar Maritime]

Temperatures are a lot higher at 10 mb at the moment compared to this time last year.

 

10mb9065.gif

 

I wonder what April has in store this year?

 

Yes Cloud, GFS is showing some strong blocking taking place as we enter April..

[492]

If the current and rather persistent stratospheric warming leads to increased blocking it will be interesting to see if this results in anything unusual during April. Northern blocking in the Spring is quite common but a month without some extreme occurring is becoming less common. 

[karyo]

If the current and rather persistent stratospheric warming leads to increased blocking it will be interesting to see if this results in anything unusual during April. Northern blocking in the Spring is quite common but a month without some extreme occurring is becoming less common. 

 

An April like 2008 would be nice.

 

Karyo

[MR EXTREMES]

An April like 2008 would be nice. Karyo

Indeed was only watching the video I shot of snow falling in April 2008 this morning.Although February 2008 was fairly snowy to.Although the depth of bottled up cold is very good this spring.

[Cloud 10]

If the current and rather persistent stratospheric warming leads to increased blocking it will be interesting to see if this results in anything unusual during April. Northern blocking in the Spring is quite common but a month without some extreme occurring is becoming less common. 

 

Can't help but think this early final warming will have some sort of impact over the next month or so.

 

 

30 hpa temperature way above normal for the time of year.

 

[damianslaw]

Can't help but think this early final warming will have some sort of impact over the next month or so.

 

ecmwf10f24.gif

 

30 hpa temperature way above normal for the time of year.

 

pole30_nh.gif

 

The warming is notable and it may have an impact on the PV, which should be on the move and wane by now. So this might be the trigger to northern blocking setting up during second half of April, which could mean a chilly start to May. However, looking at the synoptical outlook right now and you can't see how northern blocking can establish. I suspect any changes over the Pole will be rapid and not be forecasted until reliable timeframe, but you would expect longer range forecasts to start picking up on such signals..

[phil nw.]

It does look like the final demise of the Winter vortex is now underway.

Latest ECM graph indicates the steady rise in the temperatures of the Stratosphere in the Polar latitudes now.

 

not yet the end but a steady trend upwards now.

The increase should be ongoing from here on with the return of the Polar day and consequent continuing warming of the upper layers.This will see the eventual shrinking of the core and breakup of the cold pools around the edges.

We can see the vortex erosion clearly evident on the day 10 forecast GEFS and ECM charts at the 30hPa level.

 

The Canadian vortex which persisted throughout last Winter and resulted in a strong jet across the UK finally warming out leaving the remaining  vortex segment around Siberia.

 

This breakup of the Arctic vortex makes Spring the most difficult time to forecast the placement of the 500hPa wavelengths, or putting it another way, the amplitude/track of the jet stream.

[johnholmes]

 

 

This breakup of the Arctic vortex makes Spring the most difficult time to forecast the placement of the 500hPa wavelengths, or putting it another way, the amplitude/track of the jet stream.

 

yes I have noticed trying to use these over the past few years it is perhaps the most difficult period regarding the reliability of the 500mb anomaly charts. A secondary one being the return of the winter set up, and a third, if it is a reasonably active period is the late summer/early autumn due to hurricane effects getting into the north Atlantic.

Edited April 6, 2014 by johnholmes

[Cloud 10]

Some unusually high pressure and temperature anomalies at 30mb still ongoing.

 

 

 

 

Northern blocking becoming a real feature in the model output at the moment...

[neige57]

Note that the QBO is past its phase Is 30 hpa week. Phase East has begun and is expected to continue until at least summer 2015

 

 

 

With the return of El Nino and the negative QBO, this is the return of the northern blocks ( NAO-). Winter 2014/2015 could be an interesting follow winter and early indications are to monitor during the month of October

Edited April 19, 2014 by neige57

[mpkio2]

Note that the QBO is past its phase Is 30 hpa week. Phase East has begun and is expected to continue until at least summer 2015

 

 

 

With the return of El Nino and the negative QBO, this is the return of the northern blocks ( NAO-). Winter 2014/2015 could be an interesting follow winter and early indications are to monitor during the month of October

Some pretty good news after such a terrible/snowless winter!

Lets hope we have a Winter familiar to what our American cousins experienced last winter, ehh? Hey, I can dream, can't I? 

[damianslaw]

Not sure if this is the right place to post this, but I was reading some interesting observations about past periods when we have been in a cold phase of the PDO, which we are currently in and low solar activity which we are currently in.

 

In such circumstances la nina is more likely, but El Nino still occurs. Such periods usually exhibit cooler wetter summers and colder snowier winters but natural variability in some years means the opposite can occur.

 

Given the cold phase of PDO started 2008, interesting to note how we have had 4 winters of cold snowy winters and up until last year 5 cooler wetter summers.

 

I wonder if we are just seeing that natural variability this year - started last summer and this is a blip, with the return of colder blocked conditions come the winter- would certainly tie in with these thoughts. An east based QBO would help aid this as well.