Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[aginob]

hi everyone

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140210/18/384/h500slp.png

 

europe ... omega block

===

gfs europe

Edited February 11, 2014 by aginob

[bluearmy]

hi everyone

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140210/18/384/h500slp.png

 

europe ... omega block

===

gfs europe

Sorry, can't see one there?

Also it's an op day 16 chart so really not worth any attention.

[feb1991blizzard]

When I first looked at this chart, I thought it was a promising chart but then realised of course its yesterdays 12z op, which was an outlier.

 

[bluearmy]

When I first looked at this chart, I thought it was a promising chart but then realised of course its yesterdays 12z op, which was an outlier.

 

 

 

the last few frames of the zonal winds are not to be relied upon for continuity anyway. however, i wouldnt discount them until the following days output. certainly, higher up in the strat, they should be a reasonable tool. lower down, they do vary day to day, reflecting the latter part of the op run, tropospherically.

[bluearmy]

the last few frames of the zonal winds are not to be relied upon for continuity anyway. however, i wouldnt discount them until the following days output. certainly, higher up in the strat, they should be a reasonable tool. lower down, they do vary day to day, reflecting the latter part of the op run, tropospherically.

Seems like a reasonable forecast as repeated today. reversed/static from top to bottom north of 70

[sebastiaan1973]

Perhaps next winter eQBO, low solar activity & El Nino? http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/02/07/1323058111

[phil nw.]

Perhaps next winter eQBO, low solar activity & El Nino? http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/02/07/1323058111

Well sebastiaan we would be very unlucky to see the zonal pattern repeated to this severity next year.

 

Time series up to the end of January show how cold the vortex became in mid-Winter.

the white area of cold at 30hpa off the scale- confirmed by the temp.graph below

 

a new low for the 1979 to 2013 period, recorded at the end of December.

 

Finally though, signs of a trend towards average but we can see why the 500hPa pattern was so hard to shift even with those warmings higher up.

 

Mean zonal wind forecasts from yesterday's ECM run are still around 20m/s compared to around 40m/s around New Year.

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/fluxes.gif

This forecast another indication of the gradual easing of the jet going forward, although the vortex is still very much intact across the Arctic.

 

A forecast profile that would take us very close to Winter's end.

[Snowy L]

Looks like that small warming has finally had an effect lower down. PV lobe over Greenland finally disappears. Maybe a chance for a block from the west or more importantly some drier weather?

 

 

[TomDav]

Look at the possible warming at 384, i know it is a bit FI 

 

[bluearmy]

Look at the possible warming at 384, i know it is a bit FI 

 

 

 

not only fi tom but two weeks away. even a response (assuming it actually verified) would be well into march. i think the general lack of posting on here tells its own tale.

[Recretos]

not only fi tom but two weeks away. even a response (assuming it actually verified) would be well into march. i think the general lack of posting on here tells its own tale.

 

Not only if it verified, but if it would actually have an effect on the trop., re. the heights, propagations, etc,... Just like this last warming one week ago when a lot of people ignored the entire atmosphere profile and was holding onto that 10mb temperature, expecting a blockage of the Atlantic. On the other hand, I was calling this warming as an actual "helper" of the Atlantic and that it will help to send more energy into the Atlantic sector down the line. 

 

As for the FI, GEFS has a new wave1 warming, that would eventually lead to the FW if it verifies. But since this is FI, I wont go into more details for now.  The positioning through the atmosphere does seem less favourable for intense Atlantic pattern down the line and this coincides with the "new dynamics" on the latest ECM32 from Thursday. The shift of the core would take some pressure of the Atlantic region, possibly allowing the S. Atlantic ridge to come out of hiding.

  

[bobbydog]

Perhaps next winter eQBO, low solar activity & El Nino? http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/02/07/1323058111

 

i had heard that an easterly QBO gives a greater chance of colder european winters, yet this quote from wiki completely contradicts that-

 

"Effects of the QBO include mixing of stratospheric ozone by the secondary circulation caused by the QBO, modification of monsoon precipitation, and an influence on stratospheric circulation in northern hemisphere winter (mediated partly by a change in the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings). Westward phases of the QBO often coincide with more sudden stratospheric warmings, a weaker Atlantic jet stream and cold winters in Northern Europe and eastern USA whereas eastward phases of the QBO often coincide with mild winters in eastern USA and a strong Atlantic jet stream with mild, wet stormy winters in northern Europe (Ebdon 1975)."

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation

Edited February 17, 2014 by bobbydog

[feb1991blizzard]

i had heard that an easterly QBO gives a greater chance of colder european winters, yet this quote from wiki completely contradicts that-

 

"Effects of the QBO include mixing of stratospheric ozone by the secondary circulation caused by the QBO, modification of monsoon precipitation, and an influence on stratospheric circulation in northern hemisphere winter (mediated partly by a change in the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings). Westward phases of the QBO often coincide with more sudden stratospheric warmings, a weaker Atlantic jet stream and cold winters in Northern Europe and eastern USA whereas eastward phases of the QBO often coincide with mild winters in eastern USA and a strong Atlantic jet stream with mild, wet stormy winters in northern Europe (Ebdon 1975)."

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation

 

 

Do those not infer winds from the opposite direction as in normal weather, ie - an Easterly is the Westward movement of air surely??

[bobbydog]

Do those not infer winds from the opposite direction as in normal weather, ie - an Easterly is the Westward movement of air surely??

 

maybe but its referring to air circulation in the stratosphere. i'm sure someone with far greater knowledge than myself can explain it

[Duane S.]

i had heard that an easterly QBO gives a greater chance of colder european winters, yet this quote from wiki completely contradicts that-

 

"Effects of the QBO include mixing of stratospheric ozone by the secondary circulation caused by the QBO, modification of monsoon precipitation, and an influence on stratospheric circulation in northern hemisphere winter (mediated partly by a change in the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings). Westward phases of the QBO often coincide with more sudden stratospheric warmings, a weaker Atlantic jet stream and cold winters in Northern Europe and eastern USA whereas eastward phases of the QBO often coincide with mild winters in eastern USA and a strong Atlantic jet stream with mild, wet stormy winters in northern Europe (Ebdon 1975)."

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation

 

That does seem to be contradictory in its wording. There is definitely a much greater correlation between an Easterly QBO and cold winters in the Northern Hemisphere than a Westerly QBO. Transitional stages and different ENSO states can muddy the waters a bit but generally speaking a W-QBO does us few favours in the UK.

[cooling climate]

Do those not infer winds from the opposite direction as in normal weather, ie - an Easterly is the Westward movement of air surely??

Yes you are right. The way its worded is not very good but as you say a westward movement

of air is of course a easterly or negative QBO.

[mudflaps]

Does the stratosphere have any influence on our summer weather? 

[Frozen Britain]

Does the stratosphere have any influence on our summer weather? 

Yes. Very often in previous summers, with the exception of July last year, summers in the UK tend to be characterised by high pressure over the Arctic, Arctic blocking as it is often called. This pushes the jet stream south of the UK. If there is no Arctic blocking like last summer, then summer has a much better chance of being good than poor and wet.

The high pressure over the Arctic is caused by the stratosphere. It is likely that there was a final warming which took place in the spring months, and this stays routed to the Arctic for the remainder of summer, very often.

[aginob]

hi to all

 

end of february 2014 ? ( europe )

northern hemisphere at 10 mb the polar vortex

split or not ?

Edited February 18, 2014 by aginob

[KyleHenry]

hi to all

 

end of february 2014 ? ( europe )

northern hemisphere at 10 mb the polar vortex

split or not ?

Brewer Dobson units are concentrating in a band from the Arctic through NE Canada into North Atlantic.

http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/Scripts/big_image.php?date=2014-02-21&hem=N

Effect should split the PV Gino.

[knocker]

Yes. Very often in previous summers, with the exception of July last year, summers in the UK tend to be characterised by high pressure over the Arctic, Arctic blocking as it is often called. This pushes the jet stream south of the UK. If there is no Arctic blocking like last summer, then summer has a much better chance of being good than poor and wet.

The high pressure over the Arctic is caused by the stratosphere. It is likely that there was a final warming which took place in the spring months, and this stays routed to the Arctic for the remainder of summer, very often.

 

Could you expand on that please. In particular how it's caused by the stratosphere in summer.

Edited February 25, 2014 by knocker

[feb1991blizzard]

All aboard the FW train, any ideas how it might pan out???

 

[Frozen Britain]

A message for chionomaniac. Could you indicate any thoughts on how spring will pan out in terms of stratospheric warming and blocking?

Any chance it could be favourable like last year, which gave that spectacular weather in July? Thanks.

[chionomaniac]

A message for chionomaniac. Could you indicate any thoughts on how spring will pan out in terms of stratospheric warming and blocking?

Any chance it could be favourable like last year, which gave that spectacular weather in July? Thanks.

I think that it is unlikely given the resistance of the mid to lower vortex to the wave activity. Take for example the latest forecast that shows a strong burst of wave 1 activity - this momentarily causes a 1hPa mean zonal mean wind reversal at 60N -but this is short lived and hardly creates an indent to 10-30hPA level vortex strength. I see a slow relaxing of the tropospheric polar vortex from now on into spring with the jet stream slowly receding northwards. No major meridional pattern likely, despite the MJO forecasts.

[chionomaniac]

Yes. Very often in previous summers, with the exception of July last year, summers in the UK tend to be characterised by high pressure over the Arctic, Arctic blocking as it is often called. This pushes the jet stream south of the UK. If there is no Arctic blocking like last summer, then summer has a much better chance of being good than poor and wet.

The high pressure over the Arctic is caused by the stratosphere. It is likely that there was a final warming which took place in the spring months, and this stays routed to the Arctic for the remainder of summer, very often.

The stratospheric polar vortex is always a weak net easterly during summer and therefore the positioning of any ridges and troughs are liklely to be tropospheric led - not startospheric led. The tropospheric polar cell is still present in the summer - it is just a lot weaker than winter and one shouldn't confuse the underlying summer stratospheric conditions with that of the troposphere.