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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014


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Posted
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft
  • Location: Barnoldswick, Lancs, 500ft

Call me a pessimist this morning, but I'm getting to the point now where patience is slowly running out and we are getting to the point in this winter where it is almost getting too late. Yes I am sort of going back on my own words and comments at times with regards to using last March as an example, but this potential SSW this winter continues to be within a region of the forecast time period that does keep getting put further and further ahead. Charts like this from the latest ECMWF for the end of January and now clearly nearly the 1st of February are still a long way from anything of worth;

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f240.gif

 

...again for anything of interest it remains in the far reaches of the GFS model run and clearly this chart, for example, has potential but it still shows an almost intact vortex and no doubt would still equate to some sort of general westerly flow for the UK;

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140122/00/372/npst30.png

 

Clearly that chart is now for the 6th of February. Last February and particularly March was, without question, an exception to the rule. To get such a cold synoptic pattern and broader flow sustained like we did during the second half of March and obviously the well known blizzard around the 21st/22nd will, unlikely, be achieved again this winter.

 

It's not as though the expected state of the vortex for this winter was unknown, clearly Ed pointed this out many, many weeks ago. What I am simply trying to highlight here, whether it be agreed with or disagreed with is that time is running out for anything of worth and the much needed SSW or at least a more pronounced disruption to the vortex to at lease bring a possible stop to this relentless westerly flow continues to be progged in a time frame that never really seems to get to present day.

 

There's always some hope for a week or two of cold weather clearly during the 2nd half of February, but by that time, as ever, it will really have to be something noteworthy otherwise any lying snow, particularly at lower levels and across southern areas of the UK never lasts and a -5C 850mb N or NW'ly just won't do the trick in my opinion.

 

Not throwing in the towel as such just yet, but still, time is running out and I'll be getting to a point where it'll be a case of damage control and limitation and then move on to spring and hope to the stratospheric gods above that next winter doesn't resemble anything like this "winter"...note the air quotes!

 

Regards, Matt.

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Call me a pessimist this morning, but I'm getting to the point now where patience is slowly running out and we are getting to the point in this winter where it is almost getting too late. Yes I am sort of going back on my own words and comments at times with regards to using last March as an example, but this potential SSW this winter continues to be within a region of the forecast time period that does keep getting put further and further ahead. Charts like this from the latest ECMWF for the end of January and now clearly nearly the 1st of February are still a long way from anything of worth;

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f240.gif

 

...again for anything of interest it remains in the far reaches of the GFS model run and clearly this chart, for example, has potential but it still shows an almost intact vortex and no doubt would still equate to some sort of general westerly flow for the UK;

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140122/00/372/npst30.png

 

Clearly that chart is now for the 6th of February. Last February and particularly March was, without question, an exception to the rule. To get such a cold synoptic pattern and broader flow sustained like we did during the second half of March and obviously the well known blizzard around the 21st/22nd will, unlikely, be achieved again this winter.

 

It's not as though the expected state of the vortex for this winter was unknown, clearly Ed pointed this out many, many weeks ago. What I am simply trying to highlight here, whether it be agreed with or disagreed with is that time is running out for anything of worth and the much needed SSW or at least a more pronounced disruption to the vortex to at lease bring a possible stop to this relentless westerly flow continues to be progged in a time frame that never really seems to get to present day.

 

There's always some hope for a week or two of cold weather clearly during the 2nd half of February, but by that time, as ever, it will really have to be something noteworthy otherwise any lying snow, particularly at lower levels and across southern areas of the UK never lasts and a -5C 850mb N or NW'ly just won't do the trick in my opinion.

 

Not throwing in the towel as such just yet, but still, time is running out and I'll be getting to a point where it'll be a case of damage control and limitation and then move on to spring and hope to the stratospheric gods above that next winter doesn't resemble anything like this "winter"...note the air quotes!

 

Regards, Matt.

Thanks matt:)

Always enjoy reading your thoughts-

Not looking good really,oh well.We were due a mild one,i don't think many anticipated just how relentlessly zonal its been though.

If i were to be honest,im bored of this relentless wind and rain and im getting a bit bored with the same synoptics/NH setup day afer day.

Fingers crossed we get a nice dry summer to counter-balance this sorry excuse for a winter.

cheers..

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

We are above average for the first time since early November. This probably says more about what has gone before than what necessarily lies ahead though

 

post-5114-0-00869600-1390375552_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Great post Matt.

I know v little on this subject, compared to the v knowledgeable few on this subject on NW, but i was trying to 'read between the lines' over the last week or so in this thread, and my initial reaction a week or so ago was if it comes it's going to be too late for any meaningful cold, esp down here.

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

Yes a well reasoned post by Matt and perhaps we run the risk of a February 2005 type scenario (by all rights should have been a significant cold spell with 17 consecutive days of snow recorded in my location, but much of it was daytime showers with little in the way of significant accumulation).

 

The optimist in me though says this the below at day 9:

 

Posted Image

 

Could be the beginning of the final curtain call for any meaningful vortex for the remainder of the season.

 

Still plenty of wave activity bombarding the stratospheric vortex but as has been said plenty of times it is a big beast to bring down.

 

SK

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Posted
  • Location: Ås, Norway
  • Location: Ås, Norway

I tend to agree with Matt, winter is well underway and yet all goodies are beyond +192. The GFS warming is inching closer, I guess, but I am still worried about EC not picking up the warming GFS has been showing for some time now. 

 

GFS vs EC. Temperature difference is huge. 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Ruben Amsterdam
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Well for perspective, here are dates of SSW taken from MERRA for similar westerly QBO years to this year, as per Berlin University

1979	22/02/791981	04/03/811984	24/02/841986	19/03/861988	14/03/881989	21/02/891991	01993	01994	01995	05/02/951996	01998	29/03/982000	20/03/002001	11/02/012003	18/01/032005	12/03/052007	24/02/072009	24/01/092011	02012	0

The average date is about 25th February, with >40% occurring in March which incidentally explains why the Labitzke solar/QBO graphs show a low temperature/geopotential height in February, it's not that SSW don't occur but they tend to be later.

 

From looking at analogue years in the MERRA data, there still appears a reasonable signal for an SSW but probably more towards the middle of February or later (if at all!).

Stratospherically, the closest single year on the 30 days of data to 20/01/14 looking at the range of polar cap winds and temperature is probably 2000 - a west QBO in the table above but this was not used a criteria, all years are looked at and the closest tend to be QBO similar.

This year is about 18 days ahead of 2000 so perhaps the start of March or end of February but getting an early SSW was always going to be less likely this year.

That's not to say that an SSW couldn't occur sooner - 2009 is the prime example which shouldn't have occurred according to Labitzke's theorem and it stands out as an outlier in much of the MERRA data also, making it difficult to predict much more than a week away by analogues.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Yes a well reasoned post by Matt and perhaps we run the risk of a February 2005 type scenario (by all rights should have been a significant cold spell with 17 consecutive days of snow recorded in my location, but much of it was daytime showers with little in the way of significant accumulation).

 

SK

 

I think after the Winter we've had to endure so far, many on here would now welcome a February 2005 scenario, I know I would!  January 2010, December 2010 and March 2013 seem a world away now!

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

Northern Hemispheric winter 2013/14 is following a similar pattern to winter 2012/13 with a late winter early spring below average temps for the British Isles.

Polar vortex has been recording extremely low Strat temps from 30 hPa all the way to the 1hPa level, as SK says 'the beast'. Following all the Strat charts from the end of December 2013 to present, the temps has recovered to just above the mean as shown by S4lancia's post above.

Now we see the split occur in the Vortex. Heart breaking for those that wanted a white Christmas. When those of us that follow the Strat temps could see that it was always going to be a very low probability with the strength of the PV.

Since late December 2013 from just observing say the GFS 10 hPa daily charts for the Strat temps and not looking ahead for the SSW.

The warming has been circumnavigating around the PV slowly chipping away until we get to our current PV split. Just like the defeat of General Custer at the battle of the Little Big Horn, circle the wagons idea.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Ripe for just 1 more kick SK, and that kick is being delivered at 1 hPa at that time!

 

Yes... but I must admit that I had hoped for some tropospheric impact earlier than is being suggested today with only a transient event for next week. If the vortex becomes shredded between 5 and 15 Feb without swift propagation downwards then our window for any cold at all this winter is very small. And a cold spring after a very wet winter is the last thing anyone will want.

 

So much cold spilling into the N Atlantic... and a vortex that is oh so stubborn to be dislodged. Disrupted vortex energy currently not creating a break in the atlantic systems we have had since about Dec 13. Fingers crossed that my gut feeling today is overly pessimistic.

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

The "peculiar" scenarios don't want to leave. Posted Image

 

GEFS 6z

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

GEFS 12z.

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

I am not forecasting anything at this point. Just sharing a more detailed insight into the GEFS. 

 

Regards

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The "peculiar" scenarios don't want to leave. Posted Image

 

GEFS 6z

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

GEFS 12z.

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

I am not forecasting anything at this point. Just sharing a more detailed insight into the GEFS. 

 

Regards

Just as you think things are going down hill...it changes!! this is why weather is so interesting !

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

A SSW is not the be all and end all as long as we can get some decent warming

well into the Arctic which will allow for greater amplification in the region.

This can of course be through wave 1 or wave 2 as we all know.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Yes... but I must admit that I had hoped for some tropospheric impact earlier than is being suggested today with only a transient event for next week. If the vortex becomes shredded between 5 and 15 Feb without swift propagation downwards then our window for any cold at all this winter is very small. And a cold spring after a very wet winter is the last thing anyone will want.

 

So much cold spilling into the N Atlantic... and a vortex that is oh so stubborn to be dislodged. Disrupted vortex energy currently not creating a break in the atlantic systems we have had since about Dec 13. Fingers crossed that my gut feeling today is overly pessimistic.

Don't make sweeping statements! Posted Image

 

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Despite lower temperatures on the 18z than 12z, a split occurs at 300 at 10mb.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012218&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=300

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

With the charts showing a cold outlook all of a sudden I would just like to ask what has caused these charts to show up on the nwp especially with all the negativity about the stratosphere at the moment?thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Ås, Norway
  • Location: Ås, Norway

With the charts showing a cold outlook all of a sudden I would just like to ask what has caused these charts to show up on the nwp especially with all the negativity about the stratosphere at the moment?thanks.

Cold outlook? We currently have a split-like pattern in de lower stratosphere, which - in my view- is causing the Northerly high pressure areas and somewhat reduced westerlies. Or at least, allowing them to stay in place. The situation, however, is not favourable enough to support really cold patterns. One might say that the American core of the vortex is situated too far east/is too strong. The same pattern is present in the troposphere: the strong Alaskan high continously forces troughs and cold air to flow onto the Atlantic. 

 

Posted Image

 

In the mean while, EC still does not forecast the intense warming GFS has been showing. That said, GFS seem to downgrade the warming in the last couple of runs. 

Edited by Ruben Amsterdam
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

 

now losing that consistent signature - the asian warming early feb continues to be well signalled but the temp pattern that follows is no longer so.

 still the case. on the plus side, the wave 2 in the latter stages of berlin is firming up.
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

saw this on twitter and don't know if this is any help to folks in here but thought I would post it

 

ALERT: Latest European ensembles finally showing a split of the stratospheric #PolarVortex in the medium range! pic.twitter.com/mhUdDd9Meo

 

post-18233-0-18546200-1390484592_thumb.p

 
 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Nice split in the 12z GFS at around 360 hours!

The warming not looking impressive but signs of it picking up towards the end of the run.

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

The wave 2 starting to feature more and more now with even a split possible.

A fair way out yet but the sblit is in a very good location for us if the

charta are anywhere near the mark.

I think weather wise for February we should perhaps be looking to our east

which is of course also where our coldest weather is normally sourced.

Personaly I definitely like the trend I am now seeing from the strat models.

Edited by cooling climate
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Posted
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU

hi everyone

off topic

 

page 61 ... post #1220

WSI website ecmwf models ( i not have see )

no models ... ???

Edited by aginob
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