Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[picog]

For only the second time this winter, the temp at the 30HPa level appears to be approaching "average" for the time of year. It would be nice to see this shoot well above the average curve, and preferably as soon as possible since we are now half way through winter.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

[Interitus]

For only the second time this winter, the temp at the 30HPa level appears to be approaching "average" for the time of year. It would be nice to see this shoot well above the average curve, and preferably as soon as possible since we are now half way through winter.http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

 

Surprising difference in climatology from the MERRA data where the 30mb pole temperature is above the mean now -

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_30_2013_merra.pdf

 

The time periods averaged are the same bar a couple of years.

[bluearmy]

The consistency in the gfs op fi modelling of the temp at 10 hpa is now catching my eye. i dont recall any of the previous modelled warmings this month and last showing the same pattern run after run at the T340+ timeframe. ed's date of the 5th might be a couple days early. shame on you !!

[Ruben Amsterdam]

The consistency in the gfs op fi modelling of the temp at 10 hpa is now catching my eye. i dont recall any of the previous modelled warmings this month and last showing the same pattern run after run at the T340+ timeframe. ed's date of the 5th might be a couple days early. shame on you !!

 

As long as EC is not joining GFS in the warming trend, I'd be very carefull. 

[snowking]

As long as EC is not joining GFS in the warming trend, I'd be very carefull. 

Seems relatively consistent with one another for now for the timing of the GFS warming we have been watching for some days now, centred around January 28th:

 

 

Nuances in exact temperature but the warming occurs at a pretty similar location on both suites. Of course there are likely to be differences with the effects of the warmings, but that is to be expected.

 

I think the warming BA is referring to is this one (from 6z):

 

 

Which centres itself around 2nd February, and has (much as the Jan 28th warming) been pretty consistently modelled by the GFS in recent runs:

 

 

That's the last 4 runs showing the same idea - again we can expect nuances in terms of exact temperature but that's pretty consistent modelling at such a range. We can even go further back than that, 24 hours previous:

 

 

And 24 hours previously again:

 

 

Certainly wise words to offer in terms of awaiting the ECMWF's approval too but I think we have seen that the 28th January warming has been pretty well modelled and is now coming in to the range of the ECMWF output, so I think it's hats off to the GFS thus far for me, which proves encouraging given the second warming now showing.

 

SK

[Guest I'm a superstar]

gfsnh-10-384.png

 

 a part of Polar vortex over W England 2 weeks from now, hope it will give both Uk and Scandinavia cold weather, and i know it's far away but let a man dream okey!

[Ruben Amsterdam]

gfsnh-10-384.png  a part of Polar vortex over W England 2 weeks from now, hope it will give both Uk and Scandinavia cold weather, and i know it's far away but let a man dream okey!

Lower down this correlates with the main part of the vortex over Greenland and therefore westerlies. In the long run (so even beyond this chart), beating up the vortex like this probably improves our chances ofc.

[chionomaniac]

gfsnh-10-384.png

 

 a part of Polar vortex over W England 2 weeks from now, hope it will give both Uk and Scandinavia cold weather, and i know it's far away but let a man dream okey!

That is not what that chart is showing though. It is showing the forecast temperature way out in FI at a height in the stratosphere where any warming may or may not influence events further down towards the troposphere in a period after that. The forecast vortex position at T+384 at 10hPa is just east of Greenland and only slightly displaced off the pole. I think that you may be confusing the temperature chart for polar vortex positioning and also charts in the upper area of the stratosphere for tropospheric ones.

[Suburban Streamer]

We need some more wave activity now to really push the pattern towards further blocking.

encouraging signs of wave 2 gaining momentum at day 9/10. wave 1 lingering nicely too

 

Edited January 21, 2014 by Suburban Streamer

[Snowy L]

encouraging signs of wave 2 gaining momentum at day 9/10. wave 1 lingering nicely too

 

wave2.gif wave1.gif

 

If wave-2 increase occurs after the wave-1 associated warming hits the North Pole you would think the vortex is finished for winter.

[Recretos]

If wave-2 increase occurs after the wave-1 associated warming hits the North Pole you would think the vortex is finished for winter.

 

Well, CFS mean is kinda trying to have a go at it, but with no real success in the normal FI. But yes, its the CFS.

 

 

 

GEFS is trying to have a go too, and it actually has a pretty beat up looking vortex, when considering the geopotential height and temperature.  Not that surprising, when considering what the poor fella went (or is about to go) trough.

 

 

 

 

 

But that core just doesn't want to give up, no matter how much money you offer it.  The models are "peeling" it like an onion, but by the rate of the current trend we will be done just in time for the FW in March. :lol:

Edited January 21, 2014 by Recretos

[ITSY]

 

this displacement of the vortex has to be good news right?

[chionomaniac]

 

this displacement of the vortex has to be good news right?

Yet again - this is my bugbear this season - that is a temperature chart - can you tell where the vortex is on it? I know I can't!!

[snowking]

Only taken from one run but this is encouraging for me stratospherically:

 

 

The stratospheric vortex whilst reformed (slightly - still rather bent out of shape but back to a single core system) is aligned SW-NE from our perspective and is being 'pushed' towards Siberia with forcing from the Pacific. So we have a potentially weaker vortex from the warming episodes and hopefully (as long as we can see this pattern downwell in to the troposphere) a vortex that is being displaced to our East/North-East - the usual key ingredients behind getting some more favourable towards Greenland.

 

Taking the current tropospheric and stratospheric projections in to account (and assuming these hold true) my suggestion would be cool and unsettled followed by cold as the general outlook through until mid February.

 

SK

Edited January 21, 2014 by snowking

[chionomaniac]

Ripe for just 1 more kick SK, and that kick is being delivered at 1 hPa at that time!

[feb1991blizzard]

Complete obliteration at 1mb now.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012112&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

 

Stretching but no more yet at 10mb, im beginning to think we Recretos's post in jest might be right now!, an excellent final warming in March could be in the offering,

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012112&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

 

 

 

EDIT : beaten to the 1mb chart both on this and mod thread!

Edited January 21, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[ITSY]

Ripe for just 1 more kick SK, and that kick is being delivered at 1 hPa at that time!

 i know you're probably sick of explaining it, but what does this mean?

[Recretos]

 i know you're probably sick of explaining it, but what does this mean?

 

In laymans terms, if you want to bring a building down systematically, you first pull the roof down, and then you kick in the walls.

Edited January 21, 2014 by Recretos

[DELETED]

In laymans terms, if you want to bring a building down systematically, you first pull the roof down, and then you kick in the walls.

i swear you have a bigger brain than stephen hawking. Beast

[Recretos]

i swear you have a bigger brain than stephen hawking. Beast

 

Thanks, but this comparison is on a level of comparing a home-made volcano to the Yellowstone caldera.

 

Speaking of those "kicks", there are some peculiar perturbations in the latest GEFS. Two examples:

   

 

   

 

If you know what I mean....

[marksp]

Yet again - this is my bugbear this season - that is a temperature chart - can you tell where the vortex is on it? I know I can't!!

 

thanks for that, I too thought it was just a temp chart, and could not see how or where the votex was, but seeing some of the posts I was beginning to think I had it wrong

(leaning all the time) cheers

[cooling climate]

I would not be at all surprised as Recretos post above shows with a couple of

the GEFS members that we will see more in the way of wave 2 being modeled in

the strat charts in the days to come.

[feb1991blizzard]

Despite the temperature profile not being as good, more credence given to earlier posts because a split at 312 occurs on the GFS 18z 10mb.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012118&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=312

 

[feb1991blizzard]

At 1mb, goodbye vortex, see you somewhere in the Pacific ocean in the mid lattitudes.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012118&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

[Ruben Amsterdam]

Pity the Alskan/Aleutian high lower down in the strat keeps fuelling the Greenland tropospheric westerlies. Hopefully the 30mb pressure profile soon matches the 1mb pattern at the end of this run (they are basicly mirror images at this point) 

 

Edited January 21, 2014 by Ruben Amsterdam