Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[aginob]

hi everyone

 

northern hemisphere

SMOBA Frcst by NOAA

 

===

northern hemisphere
by noaa

Edited January 17, 2014 by aginob

[Ruben Amsterdam]

So, any thoughts on the recent GFS runs? Asian warming/wave-1 seems unable to force the vortex of the pole completely, me thinks. Some runs (like the 18z) pick up on wave-2 afterwards, splitting the vortex. Other runs continue the wave-1 attack while keeping the vortex mostly intact. 

 

Any thoughts on what is causing this run-to-run inconsistency?

Edited January 17, 2014 by Ruben Amsterdam

[feb1991blizzard]

Cannot believe the rubbish being talked in the model output discussion, talk of a South Westerly, there isn't one in the entire run, must be a record for the GFS!!!!

 

Ive got news for them - KABOOM!.

 

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014011718&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

 

 

 

 

 

A split being modelled rather than a displacement from 1hpa to 10hpa on this run, great if it verifies, however, a lot of 18z strat runs lately have thrown up great strat runs only to be downgraded on the 0z so caution still required.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014011718&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=348

Edited January 17, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[Guest I'm a superstar]

Can this potential ST warming give some cold to Scandinavia the first week in February?And with that i mean temperatures below -15° daytime even in south Sweden / Denmark? 

 

[bluearmy]

Actual split from top to bottom at T348.

[Ruben Amsterdam]

Can this potential ST warming give some cold to Scandinavia the first week in February?And with that i mean temperatures below -15° daytime even in south Sweden / Denmark? 

 

Isn't it freezing cold already in Scandinavia (in Dutch we say "the stones freeze out of the ground" or "it freezes so hard, it cracks")? Even if we were sure favourable stratosphere model predictions verified, we would be unable to answer this question in this time-frame, mainly due to variability in the troposphere. Remember that the stratospheric charts shown here are all model output and by no means fixed boundary conditions/input (like solar activity, orography, or SSTs, for instance) for the models.

 

@blizzard: we move from displacement to split and back again. Every run is a different story. Some with happy endings for us, others with a happy ending for the vortex. 

Edited January 18, 2014 by Ruben Amsterdam

[Duane S.]

Can this potential ST warming give some cold to Scandinavia the first week in February?And with that i mean temperatures below -15° daytime even in south Sweden / Denmark? 

Good grief, you're not easy to please in Scandinavia are you! 

[Biggin]

Quiet sun ??

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-25743806

 

"This means that less UV radiation hits the stratosphere - the layer of air that sits high above the Earth. And this in turn feeds into the jet stream - the fast-flowing air current in the upper atmosphere that can drive the weather."

 

 

 

"The era of solar inactivity in the 17th Century coincided with a period of bitterly cold winters in Europe."

 

 

 

 

Any comments??

Edited January 18, 2014 by Biggin

[DELETED]

 

Quiet sun ??

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-25743806

 

"This means that less UV radiation hits the stratosphere - the layer of air that sits high above the Earth. And this in turn feeds into the jet stream - the fast-flowing air current in the upper atmosphere that can drive the weather."

 

 

 

"The era of solar inactivity in the 17th Century coincided with a period of bitterly cold winters in Europe."

 

 

 

 

Any comments??

 

Thats very interesting! thanks for he post.

[Polar Maritime]

This report from the BBC is something that has been widely known for some time. The lack of UV alters the cloud base level in turn altering our weather, you only have to look back at the trends in Solar output during the suns Max and Min cycles to see this effect on our weather. The Sun has been extremely quite during this Solar Max we are currently in, so maybe the Sun is showing signs of a lull, but using this factor stand alone is impossible taking into account all the background noise and lag effects, but i agree there is a very strong correlation between the Earth and the Sun and more research is needed to properly understand this bowl of Spaghetti we live on 

[Biggin]

This report from the BBC is something that has been widely known for some time. The lack of UV alters the cloud base level in turn altering our weather, you only have to look back at the trends in Solar output during the suns Max and Min cycles to see this effect on our weather. The Sun has been extremely quite during this Solar Max we are currently in, so maybe the Sun is showing signs of a lull, but using this factor stand alone is impossible taking into account all the background noise and lag effects, but i agree there is a very strong correlation between the Earth and the Sun and more research is needed to properly understand this bowl of Spaghetti we live on 

Brilliant Ta for that. 

[Ruben Amsterdam]

 

Quiet sun ??

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-25743806

 

"This means that less UV radiation hits the stratosphere - the layer of air that sits high above the Earth. And this in turn feeds into the jet stream - the fast-flowing air current in the upper atmosphere that can drive the weather."

 

 

 

"The era of solar inactivity in the 17th Century coincided with a period of bitterly cold winters in Europe."

 

 

 

 

Any comments??

 

 

 

Well, perhaps slightly off-topic here. In paleoclimate, changes in solar irradiative forcing are the main driver behind climate change on the long term (ice ages, interglacials, etc) with CO2 following warming. This is mainly due to Milankovitch cycling, not to the 11-year solar cycle. When compared to anthropogenic factors, the variation in radiative forcing caused by the 11-year cycle is relatively minor. On a global scale that is (see graph below from IPCC5).

 

On the other hand, climate and paleoclimate is not the same as weather and we may -as the article describes- see a local effect of low solar activity in Europe. I'm not sure if the colder winters in Europe (it sparked the imagination of many painters here in the Netherlands) can actually be explained by reduced zonality in the stratosphere. I am not aware of any papers referring to this and to my knowledge this has not been included in climate models. But, as our planet continues to warm, the effect of reduced solar activity may be mitigated to some extend. 

 

Edited January 18, 2014 by Ruben Amsterdam

[SnowBallz]

Well, perhaps slightly off-topic here. In paleoclimate, changes in solar irradiative forcing are the main driver behind climate change on the long term (ice ages, interglacials, etc) with CO2 following warming. This is mainly due to Milankovitch cycling, not to the 11-year solar cycle. When compared to anthropogenic factors, the variation in radiative forcing caused by the 11-year cycle is relatively minor. On a global scale that is (see graph below from IPCC5).

 

On the other hand, climate and paleoclimate is not the same as weather and we may -as the article describes- see a local effect of low solar activity in Europe. I'm not sure if the colder winters in Europe (it sparked the imagination of many painters here in the Netherlands) can actually be explained by reduced zonality in the stratosphere. I am not aware of any papers referring to this and to my knowledge this has not been included in climate models. But, as our planet continues to warm, the effect of reduced solar activity may be mitigated to some extend. 

 

 

An excellent post, Ruben.

 

One of the great imponderables climatology faces, is weighing-up how mans unquestionable environmental effect influences the more broader cyclical processes.  Whilst it is possible to analyse glaciated isotopes, these are isotopically poor analogues to use as any basis for comparison, as they will lack the considerable catalyst for atmospheric change which has been witnessed since the dawn of industrialisation.  That's not to say that they're useless, more that care and thought should be taken before blindly drawing 1:1 comparisons to 10,000 years ago.

 

My own view is that nature does - in many ways - seem to have this welcomed habit of finding equilibrium, even when prima facie it might appear impossible to do so.  It could be that, for example, global warming counteracts the cooling effect of less UV emitted from the sun.  Whilst I grant that to be extraordinarily simplistic, there is definitely a counterbalance which will result in a net climatological effect.  It's the resulting net effect which will determine severity, in my opinion.

 

Here's an interesting thought to ponder: could it be that mans view - influenced by our now greater understanding - of CFCs changes, owing to perhaps the northern hemisphere drastically cooling?  Introducing CFCs into the atmosphere could be seen as a way to mitigate against such a cool-down.  Of course, it's difficult to envisage that ever happening, but then modern times hasn't had to countenance mini ice-ages; but how does an intelligent, scientifically aware species react to that?

 

Its a very interesting discussion.  Probably not within the context of this thread though!

[karyo]

The warming has downgraded in the last couple of runs. The vortex doesn't split at the 30hpa.

 

Karyo

[cooling climate]

 

The warming has downgraded in the last couple of runs. The vortex doesn't split at the 30hpa. Karyo

Do not see much of a downgrade as you call it in fact I think it has been prettyconsistent since it first started showing up in the strat charts. The only thingthat has been inconsistent is as Ruben Amsterdam says and that is the modeling ofthe effect it has on the vortices.It should soon (another day or two) be coming into range on the ECM charts hopefully.

[Dorsetbred]

Can this potential ST warming give some cold to Scandinavia the first week in February?And with that i mean temperatures below -15° daytime even in south Sweden / Denmark? 

Can we pull this thread back on track, and not make it a place for Scandimaviam forecasts, please?

Edited January 18, 2014 by Dorsetbred

[Snowman.]

The warming has downgraded in the last couple of runs. The vortex doesn't split at the 30hpa.

 

Karyo

 

No downgrade.

 

 

+4 Towards the centre

 

 

-12 But has pushed a good deal into the Arctic and is pressing on against the frozen core.

[karyo]

No downgrade.

 

 

+4 Towards the centre

 

 

-12 But has pushed a good deal into the Arctic and is pressing on against the frozen core.

You are posting 12z charts and my comment was for the 6z and 0z GFS!

 

Anyway, the 12z clearly upgrades the warming but there is still no split.

 

Karyo

[aginob]

northern hemisphere

tropopause temperature maps

 

 

question

nobody user have sounding ( skew t ) northern hemisphere ?

Edited January 18, 2014 by aginob

[Recretos]

Can we pull this thread back on track, and not make it a place for Scandimaviam forecasts, please?

 

Add climate change to that as well. 

 

 

 

question

nobody user have sounding ( skew t ) northern hemisphere ?

 

This is an example of FIM analysis sounding over the north pole (90N,0E).

 

[aginob]

good morning

 

hor user recretos

thanks ! ( for skew t example sounding )

http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov

[bluearmy]

zonal winds at the top are forecast to increase as we head through week 2. The renewed Asian warmings shown on gfs will be required. Lower down and the large neg zonal flow is evident. Clearly a reflection of a big -AO op run. Shame we can't see the data from todays 00z run which is less neg and more akin to the ens mean. That's also true higher up where the run shows the split down as far as 30hpa later on.

[aginob]

hi everyone

Sorry ! a small error ( lapsus )

including Pacific North America => PNA

we have here europe
===

NAO Index

 

 

 

AO Index

 

 

 

 

Edited January 19, 2014 by aginob

[feb1991blizzard]

Reversal down to 2mb now and a gnats / borderline 3mb.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014011906&var=HGT&lev=3mb&hour=384

[ITSY]

Reversal down to 2mb now and a gnats / borderline 3mb.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014011906&var=HGT&lev=3mb&hour=384

what 'mb' do we require the reversal to spread to in order for it to reach the troposphere?