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Not too far from reversal at 1hPa.......

Whilst there is still a long way to go, you must be pleased that there are growing signs of the back end Winter cold you forecast?As an aside, I love the positivity in this thread compared to tropospheric model output one.
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hi everyone

and here the complete article

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.ch/

 

off topic question

what is aam ( atmospheric angular momentum ? ) => gfs ens

i no have find this model ( google search ) ... thanks !  ( grazie ! )

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/?p=2896213

Edited by aginob
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GFS 0z still showing a significant warming at both the 10hpa level;

post-12721-0-34692700-1389773205_thumb.jpost-12721-0-75709000-1389773205_thumb.j

And at the 30hpa level;

post-12721-0-08783900-1389773236_thumb.jpost-12721-0-04632900-1389773246_thumb.j

Now roughly at 300hrs out, so considering the range, some sort of consistency shown in a broad brush sense here.

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It will be nice to see the strat temperatures recovering over the pole over the next 

week or so,notably at 30mb.

 

10mb..

 

30mb..

 

 

Hopefully February will become known as "Eye-candy month"Posted Image 

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Warming over asia not as strong on the 6z but then there is this little feature that pops up over the UK  in deepest FI to give another kick.

 

Posted Image

 

I'm hoping for the strong Asian event to return in the evening runs. The above is nothing but yet another delay.

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Yes, the warming on the 6z is not as intense as in previous runs and the core of the vortex remains strong right till the end of the run. Any delay is a disadvantage now that half the winter is behind us.

Karyo

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I'm hoping for the strong Asian event to return in the evening runs. The above is nothing but yet another delay.

 

I was also hoping for a pony but in the end I just got whatever Santa left under the tree.

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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As for the MJO, it is/was sleeping for quite a while now, but it looks like it might come back to life in the 6. or more like 7. phase. At least GEFS seems to be allover the phase 6. I will try to do some MJO phase 6/7 composites (in regards to surface patterns for MT events) when I get back from work around 22 UTC. Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Best regards.

 

Edit: I know this post seems to fit more in the model thread, but I am linking this to the stratosphere output (or at least I am trying to), so it fits better in here. Posted Image

 

yeah i've been looking at MJO. i saw the latest NOAA mjo update isnt keen on the GEFS forecast, opting for a more incoherant signal next two weeks. however, a fair few ensembles do bring the mlb so one to watch.

Anyhow, look forward to seeing those composites :)

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Nearly a split at 384 on the latest run.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014011512&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

 

Meanwhile at 1mb a real squeeze being applied on the vortex.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014011512&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

 

slightly worried that the warming wanes a bit at the end of the run at 10m, is it going to be strong enough to propagate all the way down or will we need more warmings in early February?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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So nothing is for certain, it seems that we are clutching with straws, All the warmings seem to occuring in F1.Posted Image

No, nothing is for certain but if you have a read through the thread as well as the winter forecast it seems to me that a stratospheric warming was not thought likely (if at all) until the end of January. The modelling of the strat in FI is by no means 100% accurate but I think I'm right in saying it is less prone to the wild fluctuations of the tropospheric output. Following the runs of the last few days you can see the warming coming slowly closer. What effect this will have on the troposphere and the weather for our corner of the world remains to be seen. It's important to remember that a warming does not guarantee cold for us but does make the prospect of high latitude blocking more likely.

I'm not that keen on the idea of another cold March but I'll take it after this less than inspiring first half of winter. Anyway 6 weeks of winter left and Let's hope for a cold end to it as I'm fairly sure that the conditions will be more favourable than those seen in the first half.

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Please correct me if I'm wrong and being too simplistic, current total ozone observations are peaking in Stratosphere from Central Asia to Kamchatka. Exactly where the GFS is signalling a dare I say it,SSW with a Himalayan Mountain Torque event. I say this, because this years first wave 1 and 2 at the start of the year followed the similar area pattern. At a guess does the peaking of stratospheric ozone open the window for warming to occur before the ozone heads south for the Southern Hemispheric winter. If the SSW does occur then seven days into February 2014 would be my call for UK change. The complexity of all factors involved are mind boggling to predict correct outcome for which I do salute all your efforts and work in this thread.

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A reccuring feature - I think - is a strong Alaskan high (see latest EC op). To what extend does this influence the MT events we talk about?

 

Edit: close to reversal at 1hpa? Max temp at this level is +42C!

 

Posted Image

Edited by Ruben Amsterdam
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