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Another gfs run which should temper expectations somewhat. from my perspective, I want to see some warming looking likely on ECM at day 10 @ 10 hpa tomorrow morning over east side of n America.

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Another gfs run which should temper expectations somewhat. from my perspective, I want to see some warming looking likely on ECM at day 10 @ 10 hpa tomorrow morning over east side of n America.

Yes starting to notice 10hPa outliers like we get in the 500hPa distant frames.It seems the 06Z  was one.

If we do see some top warming within the ECM scope then we have to hope this filtrates down Nick.

It seems we are far away from any change at present.

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The equatorial zonal winds look to have weakened quite nicely in December. Looks quite likely to be lower than December 2008 but we wait for NOAA to update the figures.

 

Yes, this is mainly the difference in the QBO between these two years. Posted Image Nonetheless, looking at the 20.12-30.12 periods, the 2013 was still a bit stronger than 2008. 

 

This is the difference between 2013 and 2008 for the 20.12-30.12 period. It shows where the 2013 period was stronger/weaker when compared to the 2008 period.

The equatorial zonal flow basically corresponds to the QBO phasing, and the zonal flow at higher latitudes corresponds to the state of the polar vortex. So I am not presenting anything new actually. Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image

 

If you would like to see 2013 compared to any specific year, just say so. Posted Image

 

Regards.

 

p.s.: I was looking at the JMA weekly 10mb temperature change, so I decided to make one too. Posted Image I also added one for geopotential height. Basically wave 1+2 on the increase in this period. Tho wave 1 intensified a bit more in this period, it naturally also affects wave 2 calculations. Temperature waves following accordingly in retrospect. 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

p.s.2: GEFS 12z mean still with no real dynamics, tho I have actually found 2 perturbations that are worth mentioning. But the waves look a bit off (compared to higher topped models), which I do believe is because of the low model top.

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

Edited by Recretos

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I know this is nursery level stuff compared to what most of you discuss but has anyone ever seen the 30mb temperature profilve get as low as it has been recently?

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

John, I wouldn't say "nursery level stuff" as all this goes to make up this winter, that low a temperature must have a part to play in all of this scenario.

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There is no reason not to think that the warming we saw on the 06z run will be back again on

future output progressing nearer in time etc. The 06z this morning was similar to a progression

in time from the 18z a couple of nights back which gives me another reason to believe it is very

viable regardless of wheather the 12z ops run showed it or not. Having said this the warming is 

still there on the 12z but not as strong.

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Hi Aginob,

Lars told us he will make these GEFS plots more often. Maybe it's also possible for him to make 30hpa plots :) I think they are usefull if we consider the limitations of the GFS ensembles (ie. model top and resolution).

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good evening

 

for user ruben ( amsterdam )

thanks for nice answer

 

sorry if i ask a lot of questionsmany years ago were the top models online for free.now almost all paysite ... for me expansive

 

example: american weather ... weather bell models ... accuweather

and many more other ...  i hope you understand me ... my english is not perfect ... gino

Edited by aginob

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Happy with the berlin charts today. Zonal winds really slackening off.

Recretos, interesting you say that about the navgem strat modelling as the op temps on meteociel at 10hpa are clearly nonsense within 36 hours of the run commencing. Always are. Something wrong up there and you'd have to question the whole dynamic of the model as the strat clearly affects what happens down below. (Assuming meteociel has the right data )

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I'm a complete newcomer to this, but the latest 1MB chart shows temperatures of 27C over Asia. This seems an incredibly high temperature for that high in the atmosphere, could someone more knowledgeable tell me if it is as remarkable as it looks, or do these sort of temperatures occur commonly?

Thanks.

post-13989-0-24191300-1388652817_thumb.g

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I'm a complete newcomer to this, but the latest 1MB chart shows temperatures of 27C over Asia. This seems an incredibly high temperature for that high in the atmosphere, could someone more knowledgeable tell me if it is as remarkable as it looks, or do these sort of temperatures occur commonly?

Thanks.

Posted Imageecmwf1a12_01012014.gif

I think that it is fair to say that it is remarkable but does occur fairly commonly in strong warmings.

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I am pretty sure that he can do plots for any layer that is available after post-processing, which is 10-20-30-50-70-100 for GEFS stratosphere. Posted Image

Maybe I don't understand your sentence, but anyway, the so-called GFS ensembles and GEFS are basically the same thing. Posted Image So the limitations that me and bluearmy were discussing earlier, apply to these plots. And even tho these products are really welcome because they provide an additional perspective, I am very dubious about the general usefulness of GEFS in stronger top-down events. But as I said many times now, the real test is yet to come. This is my first season that I am actually making custom plots, so I have no operational observations of GEFS stratosphere dynamics. And I am also monitoring CMC ensembles and the combination of both (NAEFS), and none of them delivers anything worth mentioning. 

 

Thanks Recretos, for your excellent post (please keep spamming Posted Image ) I am aware that the GFS ENS is the same as the GEFS. That's why I mix them up. Perhaps better to be consistent with this terminology. Please excuse my English if it is not clear. 

 

By the way, I'm not that pleased with todays GFS0z. The small patch of warming over the American/Canadian sector does not amplify/intensify as we saw on the "good" runs (like yesterdays 06z). EC does not intensify this warming either. In the end, of course, these aren't bad charts, but I think we all prefer the agressive warming we saw on yesterdays 06z. It's good to see a significant reduction of zonal winds at 1hPa. 

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Ruben Amsterdam

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I think that it is fair to say that it is remarkable but does occur fairly commonly in strong warmings.

Thanks Chionomaniac, I notice on the Japanese stratosphere monitoring site, some significant temperature rises over Asia at the 10mb level, and to a lesser extent at 30mb. From reading the posts, and with my limited understanding, there appears to be a growing consensus over the possibility of sudden warming but some uncertainty as to whether it will be sufficient to disrupt the polar vortex.It will be very interesting to see if this trend continues or accelerates. I know that these warmings can proceed with remarkable speed sometimes, from what I have read, but given the extreme cold that has been present at these levels recently perhaps the increase is not as important as it looks, maybe more a case of temperatures rising to more normal levels. But the 1mb temperature is very striking, so who knows!post-13989-0-74185800-1388654597_thumb.g

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Thanks Recretos, for your excellent post (please keep spamming Posted Image ) I am aware that the GFS ENS is the same as the GEFS. That's why I mix them up. Perhaps better to be consistent with this terminology. Please excuse my English if it is not clear. 

 

By the way, I'm not that pleased with todays GFS0z. The small patch of warming over the American/Canadian sector does not amplify/intensify as we saw on the "good" runs (like yesterdays 06z). EC does not intensify this warming either. In the end, of course, these arent bad charts, but I think we all prefer the agressive warming we saw on yesterdays 06z. It's good to see a significant reduction of zonal winds at 1hPa. 

 

 

So, Ruben what do you expect? In my opinion that significant and specteculair 10hPa warming in the 6h GFS was still beyond 192h and commonly seen as too progressive. Today's warming at the top (1hPa) by EC is the first step. Now we have to wait to see if it becomes reality and the process of downwelling. Patience is what we need.

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Thanks Recretos, for your excellent post (please keep spamming Posted Image ) I am aware that the GFS ENS is the same as the GEFS. That's why I mix them up. Perhaps better to be consistent with this terminology. Please excuse my English if it is not clear. 

 

By the way, I'm not that pleased with todays GFS0z. The small patch of warming over the American/Canadian sector does not amplify/intensify as we saw on the "good" runs (like yesterdays 06z). EC does not intensify this warming either. In the end, of course, these arent bad charts, but I think we all prefer the agressive warming we saw on yesterdays 06z. It's good to see a significant reduction of zonal winds at 1hPa. 

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

I think it's certainly fair to say that the GFS 0z never reaches the dizzying height of yesterdays 6z, however what we do see is a sustained phase of warming at 10mb. It starts at day 10 (+240):

 

Posted Image

(Also note the slight warming on the Asian side once again - every little helps!)

 

It then peaks around day 12:

 

Posted Image

 

But it carries on going right through to day 16:

 

Posted Image

 

Now whilst of course in an ideal world we would see as high a temperature attack as possible it is just as important to keep a sustained attack going on what is a very strong and (thus far) resilient vortex - the ultimate result remains this:

 

post-1038-0-89144400-1388655498_thumb.gi

 

Still all a long way out but all still encouraging as we head through the month. With the ECMWF also still indicating continuing wave 1 and wave 2 activity it is just a case of waiting and seeing (hoping) when the wave activity can work its way down to the troposphere too - perhaps some more poleward facing flux would assist here, and days 9 & 10 on the ECMWF look at least a little more encouraging on this front though still not there yet:

 

Posted Image

 

Finally on a slightly different note I see there is still some uncertainty over on the model discussion thread about the potential for something more settled out towards days 9/10 which would of course be a welcome relief from the relentless rain. Certainly strong suggestions from the lower stratosphere from both GFS and ECMWF of ridging around the vicinity of the UK during this period, ECMWF shown below:

 

Posted Image

 

And also fits in to some extent with a continued MJO phase 7 projection from UKMO and GEFS:

 

post-1038-0-23877600-1388656177_thumb.gi

 

SK

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So, Ruben what do you expect? In my opinion that significant and specteculair 10hPa warming in the 6h GFS was still beyond 192h and commonly seen as too progressive. Today's warming at the top (1hPa) by EC is the first step. Now we have to wait to see if it becomes reality and the process of downwelling. Patience is what we need.

Well, the US-warming (let's refer to it that way) is already more pronounced in GFS06 at 120hrs then in GFS00z (may be wishfull thinking, tho). I think yesterdays 06z was too progressive, but we may still some large differences between ops. But maybe it's better to leave it to the experts Posted Image The prolonged warming/pressure on the vortex at 1 hpa can only be a good thing, I guess. 

 

Edit: GFS06z downgraded the warming from +228 onwards. I do not like these downgrades/delays, Sebastiaan. 

Edited by Ruben Amsterdam

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Well, the US-warming (let's refer to it that way) is already more pronounced in GFS06 at 120hrs then in GFS00z (may be wishfull thinking, tho). I think yesterdays 06z was too progressive, but we may still some large differences between ops. But maybe it's better to leave it to the experts Posted Image The prolonged warming/pressure on the vortex at 1 hpa can only be a good thing, I guess. 

 

Edit: GFS06z downgraded the warming from +228 onwards. I do not like these downgrades/delays, Sebastiaan. 

 

Well I don't care. Keeping in mind the comments of Recretos and seems to me variantions on the same theme, another wave coming in the Atlantic around 12-13 of Januar.

 

Temperature at 1hPa level seems to me rather good; a (almost) split in geopotential heights.

post-10577-0-26436200-1388659923_thumb.g

post-10577-0-22134200-1388659991_thumb.g

Edited by sebastiaan1973

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A disappointing strat run from the GFS 06z run compared to yesterdays 06z run and probabley the

weakest warming we have seen since it was first picked up several days ago.

I wonder what is  causing  the volatility in the output, could it perhaps be related to solar activity

since this is a top down warming which I think Recretos said can be traced back to the meosphere.

I would need to refresh my memory on solar forcing on the Atmosphere but with solar activity on

the increase again (M9.9 flare today and further strong activity expected over coming days)

I wonder would this aid or subdue any potential warming.

Anyhow as others have said until we see consistency in the stratosphere forecasts then nothing is

certain.

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