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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014


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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

i see mr bastardi is forecasting a proper warming beginning next week over asia. this is what we've been looking at on the gfs ops. i am a bit surprised by this but assuming he has access to all the fi ens data, he must have better insight than us. what i would say is that IF we get a SSW with the current upper strat profile, expect a strong downwelling. i remember stewart used to say the stronger the vortex the greater the impact lower down if a warming occurs and reverses the upper zonal flow.

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

I might be reading this wrongly but the link in his tweet is the NOAA animation we see on here sometimes - it is for the past, not the future. screen of the tweet.

 

http://i.imgur.com/6TZX5bs.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Sadly I don't think you can find any explanations that are "user friendly". The topic itself is quite linked to heavy physics. The only way would be that some expert in this field can interpret the knowledge for you in a user friendly manner. 

 

But to answer you, even tho this is not really my field of expertise. Posted Image

 

I had my dull moment yesterday obviously, because I said left and right instead of west and east. You need high pressure east of the mountains and low pressure west of the mountains, for a MT event that we want to see.

Looking at your specific case: This is clearly one of the "many variations". Looking at some previous cases it actually does look semi favourable, now that I have actually rotate it for a better view. Posted Image I drew the ridge axis and trough axis.

 

Posted Image

 

North America on the other hand, is much more straight forward in being obviously less favourable, with clearly what you don't want to see for a favourable MT event. 

 

Posted Image

 

Just my two cents. 

 

Best regards.

 

Thanks Recretos - I dont feel such a dunce now. :-) So chance of some kind of torque event then - fingers crossed. 

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It's no surprise to see T240hrs forecasts like this at the 100hPa level.

Posted Imageecmwf100f240.gifPosted Imagegfs_z100_nh_f240.gif

 

The only ridging in the pattern is just in the wrong place for cold at present encouraging that Euro block seen on current 500hPa modeling.

 

However, the apparent ridging is most likely of tropospheric origin. From looking at the geopotential taken at an arbitrary point over the north of Scotland, there is indeed an increase in heights, from surface to middle stratosphere as reflected in those charts -

 

post-2779-0-64520700-1386648506_thumb.gi

 

But when looking at the geopotential thicknesses, the increase is almost entirely within the troposphere, through warm air advection and adiabatic warming, whilst the lower stratosphere thicknesses actually decrease to start, probably coinciding with some cold advection shown on the charts at those levels -

 

post-2779-0-39204400-1386649067_thumb.gi

 

This vertically integrated cold advection with height can encourage height rises lower down, but it's not stratospheric ridging.

 

A complete analysis is quite demanding (eg see Colucci 2010 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JAS3148.1) so there are more temperature and anomalous vorticity affects which are not taken into account.

Edited by Interitus
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Strat temp at the pole on its way down again, a pretty sustained period of below averge polar vortex temps.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

 

As mentioned by the great Glacier Point, this is not necessarily a bad thing, because when it goes, it could go with a bang!

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Posted
  • Location: Dunolly in country Victoria .. Australia
  • Weather Preferences: snow for sking or a mild spring
  • Location: Dunolly in country Victoria .. Australia

An intense .low forming in mid lat' nth pacific late this week sometimes an instigator of an SSW. MSLP Not strong enough yet l expect

 

http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2013/09/16/stratospheric-warmings-in-the-northern-hemisphere/comment-page-1/#comment-200
 

Posted Image

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

If that Pacific low remaind deep as it hits the US/Canadian Western seabaord, would this produce a strong Rockies Mountain Torque event, perhaps leading to wave breaking into the Strat. and/or assist the jet in becoming more meridonial?

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

Strat temp at the pole on its way down again, a pretty sustained period of below averge polar vortex temps. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif As mentioned by the great Glacier Point, this is not necessarily a bad thing, because when it goes, it could go with a bang!

I bet he still reads this thread, it's a shame he doesn't post under a different alias.
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

I bet he still reads this thread, it's a shame he doesn't post under a different alias.

 

Agreed, he probably champs at the bit to come back on here, unfortunately his knowledge would be a dead give away as he baffles us with his GWO and GLAAM projections.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

If that Pacific low remaind deep as it hits the US/Canadian Western seabaord, would this produce a strong Rockies Mountain Torque event, perhaps leading to wave breaking into the Strat. and/or assist the jet in becoming more meridonial?

looks like it will be a fairly average 990mb depression when it reaches what looks to be southern Alaska then it fills and doesnt really go anywhere

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

There seems to be very little low pressure action heading to the Rockies at the mo. Interesting running 1962 - the holy grail of years... and seeing how many LP systems continually ran into the rockies that month of Dec 62. Very little at all hit the tibetan plateau and in time it was an arctic high that ridged into Scandy that set everything up.

 

Several of us "learners" have been pointing to the benefits of a meridional pattern encouraged by the aleutian high - but maybe it is not such a blessing after all. To get wave breaking into the arctic do we actually need a strong aleutian low with deep troughing over the E Pacific?

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There seems to be very little low pressure action heading to the Rockies at the mo. Interesting running 1962 - the holy grail of years... and seeing how many LP systems continually ran into the rockies that month of Dec 62. Very little at all hit the tibetan plateau and in time it was an arctic high that ridged into Scandy that set everything up.

 

Several of us "learners" have been pointing to the benefits of a meridional pattern encouraged by the aleutian high - but maybe it is not such a blessing after all. To get wave breaking into the arctic do we actually need a strong aleutian low with deep troughing over the E Pacific?

 

Why is 1962/3 considered with regards to stratospheric events?

There are a variety of onset dates for an SSW in 1963, with 22/01 from Mitchell et al, and 28/01 from Charlton and Polvani, while Martineau gave a peak -ve stratosphere NAM on 11/02.

But while the cold persisted during and after these dates, the coldest weather was beforehand.

According to the Berlin site there was a Canadian warming which might have had an impact, but it was in November so we've missed the boat there this year.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Why is 1962/3 considered with regards to stratospheric events?

There are a variety of onset dates for an SSW in 1963, with 22/01 from Mitchell et al, and 28/01 from Charlton and Polvani, while Martineau gave a peak -ve stratosphere NAM on 11/02.

But while the cold persisted during and after these dates, the coldest weather was beforehand.

According to the Berlin site there was a Canadian warming which might have had an impact, but it was in November so we've missed the boat there this year.

I think your post highlights the research done into a SSW being very much effected by the  state of the AO at onset, probably because there was a deeply negative AO at the time of the warming there was little response afterwards, more important perhaps was the Canadian warming in November which is quite a rare thing to see.

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I think your post highlights the research done into a SSW being very much effected by the  state of the AO at onset, probably because there was a deeply negative AO at the time of the warming there was little response afterwards, more important perhaps was the Canadian warming in November which is quite a rare thing to see.

 

Well with regards to the AO, there was possibly a response as it returned to a largely positive or neutral state.

Canadian warmings have become rare in recent years fullstop, but according to the Berlin data November is the time they are most likely, since 1951/2 there have been 14 in November compared to 8 in December.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey

Well with regards to the AO, there was possibly a response as it returned to a largely positive or neutral state.Canadian warmings have become rare in recent years fullstop, but according to the Berlin data November is the time they are most likely, since 1951/2 there have been 14 in November compared to 8 in December.

Was there a noticeable drop in the frequency of the warmings from say 1994 onwards? Just wonder if they're in some way linked in with the Atlantic cycle - I.e. Whether we've seen a reduction in the warm AMO cycle.
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Note that the week 2 gfs upper strat warmings continue over asia but they are not currently getting below 10 hpa to any great effect.

Now showing on Berlin at 1 and 3 hpa by day 10.

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Decent Wave 2 and poleward flux forecasts at the tail end of the forecasts from the ECM this morning...

post-5114-0-09204600-1386746759_thumb.gi

 

post-5114-0-39568300-1386746766_thumb.gi

 

Not sure if it wouldstill be enough to impact the vortex in any great measure but it all helps I guess.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Whereas nothing major is going to come from this wave 2 activity, S4lancia -my ears are starting to twitch as we need to see the first signs of 'wobble' of the vortex for later on in the season. The last few days trop and strat ouputs into FI are hinting at this wobble. The vortex this winter will take some bringing down.

Although the vortex is looking very strong at min am I right in remembering as others have said it could actually work in our favour come a SSW ? Meaning it normally means a big bang with the vortex blown to shreds ? I understand the wave 2 activity dosent mean a SSW but if persistently strong enough it contributes doesnt it? Also if we can get some pressure on the vortex via wave activity in say 10 days from now and if persistent then can we look toward the 5-10th jan for a POSSIBLE SSW ? Hope you dont mind me asking im still learning . . Thanks
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Whereas nothing major is going to come from this wave 2 activity, S4lancia -my ears are starting to twitch as we need to see the first signs of 'wobble' of the vortex for later on in the season. The last few days trop and strat ouputs into FI are hinting at this wobble. The vortex this winter will take some bringing down.

 

Indeed, something to watch at least I guess.

 

Although not being shown in any of the trop outputs at the moment I wonder that if we could get some sustained, slightly more amplified wave 2 activty, with a more southerly jetstream, could this help force a split off of energy from the vortex from over Greenland thrown south east to set up lower pressure SE and then ridging to build in around the Iceland area. Got to have hope!

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

 

I suppose I could be chided for not 'liking' it rather than doing a post. However I so like how chio has explained the possible sequence of events. First class.

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

Looking at this chart from the 12Z GFSPosted Image

  I was reminded of the charts in the paper on January 1963 warming Posted Image  From  what  Recretos says above this may be a bad thing at the moment;  maybe not always the case as was shown in that event.

 

The paper.  http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450%281964%29003%3C0001%3ATMWSWA%3E2.0.CO%3B2

 

 

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