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Was looking optimistic over the last few days but less so today.

 

Can't complain though since the E US has been quite cold and snowy. We wouldn't need a full SSW to keep it that way the rest of the winter. The PV has been entrenched into Canada for a while and another lower stratosphere split at some point in the next two weeks would most likely keep things cold. I like the wavebreaking we're seeing in the N. Atlantic. GFS showing warming events coming from that region and hopefully it'll be enough to knock the PV down some more. I've already convinced myself not to pay attention to the 6z forecasts...too much hope that gets dashed away in subsequent runs.

Yes but today even the 6z wasn't that great! The last hot run was last night's 18z.

 

Karyo

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Yes but today even the 6z wasn't that great! The last hot run was last night's 18z. Karyo

Deep breath then back to lurking and enjoying a very informative thread again this year :-) Overall pattern is promising rather than conclusive - dice in hand ready to roll - so let's just let it play out and enjoy whatever happens. Even if the UK misses out it will be instructive and fascinating for wherever in the Northern Hemisphere that benefits. I'm with the view a broad concensus of runs should be taken rather than hanging onto every run. Don't need the inter run drama of the mod thread here...please...this place is light relief by comparison ;-)
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hi gents.

I have been lurking in your forum for awhile.

I am starting to learn tids and bits through the vast array of posts in the website .

I see several dedicated and enthusiastic members posting here.

I have a few questions .

i have seen quite a bit of enthusiasm from yesterday's runs in regards to an SSW .

I noticed the following from Berlin (yesterday) ... see below

 

Posted Image

 

 

If an SSW was supposed to be pronouncing itself wouldn't we see an increase in temperature between 1-5 mb from 70N/90N?

forgive me for the lack of terminology capacity that u guys have.

I also do not see berlin ( again) showing anything that would actually give us more certainty from the following ...

 

Posted Image

 

-QBO is more pronounced but we see no drop in temps at 70N/90N at 10 hpa.

i would appreciate if someone would pitch in.

As recretos says ... he did not know much not too long ago.

I hope i can at least learn 10 % of what you guys know.

cheers

Edited by stratolearner
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Does anyone know the answer to the question as to what has gone wrong this winter - I mean even many milder than average winters during the 2000s produced some short cold spells at times - even the very mild 2006-07 season had around 3-4 days of colder weather in late Jan and a few days in the first half of Feb - this winter has been almost completely devoid of even a cold snap for most parts of the UK.  It may not come out quite as mild overall as 1988-89, but if February doesen't deliver something at some point it will still be on a par to 1988-89 for being completely devoid of anything remotely wintry.

 

History shows us that it is very rare to see a winter devoid of anything remotely wintry - even a winter like 1974-75 which more or less was, saw some decent cold in late March / early April.  2007-08 was devoid of anything wintry apart from cold Rex blocking but saw some decent cold setups in late March and in April.

 

What has gone wrong?  What bad building blocks have been in place to give us this absolutely dire winter, and it now almost looks set to join the 1988-89, 89-90, 97-98 horror show list now.  We have had a neutral ENSO in place, 88-89 Strong La Nina, 97-98 record Strong El Nino.  I know a neutral ENSO does not guarantee cold for the UK, but at least it generally means that a winter is unlikely to be very mild like this one has and looks to be.

 

It is often the case that very mild horror show winters occur close together - such as the very mild winter 89-90 came after the previous one - 74-75 occurred after a previous duff winter, 73-74.  A strong El Nino enhanced the 97-98 horror show - and La Ninas meant that the following two winters were pretty rubbish.  2006-07 came during the warmest 12 month period ever and a record warm second half of the year in 2006.  2007-08 was also a La Nina year and it followed on from the previous very mild winter in 2006-07.

 

We are of course not going to get a winter like 2009-10 or even 2012-13 every year, which due to the cold March, was effectively an extended cold winter with frequent cold spells from mid January up until early April, and looking at that period it was comparable to a decent cold winter.  Even in years close to colder winters milder winters do and have historically occurred - but no-one would have thought that winter 2013-14 would turn out in the "88-89 / 89-90, 97-98 horror show" territory.

 

No-one ever suggested it was likely that this winter would be a good one up there with 2009-10 and even the one last year - even the laws of averages suggested that this winter would be milder than those two, but I do not think on the other hand anyone expected that this winter would turn out a real stiniker and devoid of anything remotely wintry.  We have still only relatively recently (within the last decade) seen two stinkers, 2006-07 and 2007-08 - both of these were equally as awful as this one has been so far.

 

What has gone wrong with this winter - why can't trough disruption allow cold air from the east to reach us - the Greenland High has been completely absent - cold zonality has been absent, at least apart from Scotland.  Just why can't and haven't any of these happened this winter?

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Referring to my post from a week or so go, it's getting to the 'throwing in the towel' time....

 

Latest EC32 maintains its consistency from recent weeks and maintains a zonal outlook throughout the 3 weeks of February. Granted final week isn't covered, but there isn't a hint from this model at all in recent weeks of a pattern change and the continued 'back and forth' in terms of conditions within the strat are now beginning to lead me to think that time really is running out. Clearly ENS data from GFS, ECM, NAEFS and the likes, including MOGREPS as well is now covering the half way point of February and if anything there is a trend for temps to rise back to nearer average with time and with little evidence of anything cold by mid-Feb.

 

Could well have been a post for the Model thread, but still relating to the strat, the lack of any real significant warmings actually coming in the 'here and now' time frame, to me look as though will combine with what remains an organised vortex to essentially get us to winters end now. Clearly weeks back there was meant to be a significant warming late January/early February but that has not materialised to the likes of which the GFS, in particular, was highlighting.

 

Still a month to go and obviously first half of March may provide a very late window of opportunity, but given actual model guidance and output now out to mid-February time is running out and it could well be a better idea to just forget about this horrific winter in terms of relentless unsettled conditions and hope the next is something far better. It really is and has been a bad one for cold synoptics and even in some of the pre-2008/2007 winters whilst they were often wet, windy and mild at least they did produce a week or two of cold weather over the winter as a whole.

 

Regards, Matt.

It starting to look like we may not quite get the 'biggie' strat event that looked possible a few weeks ago with the GFS pulling away now from that idea. That to me was most likely to be the winter saviour (before winter started).

 

Option 1 anyone for Feb?

 

February

February is the most difficult month to predict, as there are two likely outcomes. The first is another average to slightly above average month temperature wise, with again average precipitation. The second outcome is for a significantly colder month with below average temperatures and the risk of heavy snow and easterly winds. This very much depends on whether we see a SSW in the stratosphere. In the second scenario the ridge that has been building towards Scandinavia will dominate the UK, whereas in the first outcome the trough to the west would be likely to dominate the UK.

 

 

YUK!

Edited by chionomaniac
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So February doesn't look promising. Any thoughts about what March may bring?

Karyo

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Any idea what's been causing the awful accuracy in the GFS temperature charts? The SSW last year was modeled weeks ago and was pretty much spot on ever since the warming was picked up at 384. GFS underestimating the strength of the vortex?

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6z is a good run with a much better split but hard to have any faith given its erratic output.

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6z is a good run with a much better split but hard to have any faith given its erratic output.

 

Haha this is ridiculous. Best not to believe anything until it gets into the high res output.

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It may be the 6z showing a split but it is literally all we have to cling on to.

Having said that, the split starts at +204, on the edge of high res, so something to watch most certainly.

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No offense to the people in here, but if you live in UK and expect the winters to be overall snowy and cold you live in the wrong place

 

The UK weather during winter is most of the time mild and little to no snow( the north part has more winter) but still not enough if you want snow for more than 3-4 weeks at row. My tip for you is move to one of these countries below

 

east/middle Poland,  the baltic countries, west Russia, Scandinavia ( not Denmark included) or Germany. 

 

The chances of snow/frost would increase much more than now, since the cold arctic air has a hard time getting more south than this during normal winters

 

And again sorry if my comment did upset anyone, i just want to be realistic at this moment. 

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No offense to the people in here, but if you live in UK and expect the winters to be overall snowy and cold you live in the wrong place

 

The UK weather during winter is most of the time mild and little to no snow( the north part has more winter) but still not enough if you want snow for more than 3-4 weeks at row. My tip for you is move to one of these countries below

 

east/middle Poland,  the baltic countries, west Russia, Scandinavia ( not Denmark included) or Germany. 

 

The chances of snow/frost would increase much more than now, since the cold arctic air has a hard time getting more south than this during normal winters

 

And again sorry if my comment did upset anyone, i just want to be realistic at this moment. 

This thread is to discuss/learn about the Stratosphere and its potential effect on weather patterns.... there is a nice introduction on the first page,  your comments would be better in here....Posted Image 78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314

 

Its my first post in here after following this thread for last few years. Thanks to all, it is nice to see that the knowledge in here really seems to progess....one day I may even be able to understand some of It Posted Image

 

I do have a quick question for some more knowledgeable members.....I understood the strat and SSW are easier to model...is this correct and if so what is the typical FI mark in comparison to lower down.

Edited by beatpete

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It may be the 6z showing a split but it is literally all we have to cling on to.

 

I think to sum that up -  the models have been on the wind up all Winter.. Really had us chasing ghosts. Glad that fergieweather updated  to confirm about Glosea5 seeing an SSW earlier in Jan, and wasn't just imagining things.  If only that had come to fruition, we wouldn't even need to be chasing a 06z run, which whilst worthy of a ramp, as Recretos pointed out ran the other day with some data excluded, hence not to be trusted only matched by I think one 12z or 18z run, and as Matt writes it is fairly late in the day for meaningful impact. Brings new meaning to the phrase 'warm outlier'..

post-7292-0-54276800-1390922219_thumb.gipost-7292-0-85770100-1390921988_thumb.pn

post-7292-0-68526000-1390922307_thumb.gipost-7292-0-33865300-1390922329_thumb.gi

 

What has already impacted the vortex between December and the degradation of Vortex strength has created a loss of cold from the Arctic. Just not where we want it, as below.  

post-7292-0-43643700-1390921527_thumb.pn

 

Bottom line is that the Greenland Vortex is a thorn in the side for UK Winter and perhaps some re-analysis of jet activity in that region would be a good investigation, particularly with December in mind. Also read that the previous trend with splits modelled in this fashion have positioned the remaining vortex right in the same very location.

 

The Berlin charts are full of splits at different levels today, however not sure how these will filter through into what we will see in the output, time to relax and watch it all unfold and enjoy some snow on Friday !

post-7292-0-00774500-1390922049_thumb.gipost-7292-0-13704100-1390922056_thumb.gi

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Just looking through some of the other models, there is some support for the GFS evolution and in an earlier timeframe on some models, always baring in mind of course that there isn't the level of data as there is with the GFS, namely heights charts.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

 

 

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No offense to the people in here, but if you live in UK and expect the winters to be overall snowy and cold you live in the wrong place

 

The UK weather during winter is most of the time mild and little to no snow( the north part has more winter) but still not enough if you want snow for more than 3-4 weeks at row. My tip for you is move to one of these countries below

 

east/middle Poland,  the baltic countries, west Russia, Scandinavia ( not Denmark included) or Germany. 

 

The chances of snow/frost would increase much more than now, since the cold arctic air has a hard time getting more south than this during normal winters

 

And again sorry if my comment did upset anyone, i just want to be realistic at this moment. 

This winter is far from the norm, as evidenced by 2 much warmer than average months.

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Just looking through some of the other models, there is some support for the GFS evolution and in an earlier timeframe on some models, always baring in mind of course that there isn't the level of data as there is with the GFS, namely heights charts.

 

 

And the key point lies more in those height charts than the by far "favoured" 10mb temperature. :)

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And the key point lies more in those height charts than the by far "favoured" 10mb temperature. Posted Image

 

Cant help thinking the NAVGEM heights chart would be decent though and maybe the CMA.

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NAVGEM reduces the stratospheric vortex (at least temperature-wise) to zero every run in app. 120 hrs time. It's been that way for the entire season. Either the data uploaded to meteociel are corrupted, or the model just does not make sense. 

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Cant help thinking the NAVGEM heights chart would be decent though and maybe the CMA.

 

Here it is, tho you should consider what Ruben is saying. Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

In the meanwhile, 12z GFS comes out with a sobering thought. :)

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NAVGEM reduces the stratospheric vortex (at least temperature-wise) to zero every run in app. 120 hrs time. It's been that way for the entire season. Either the data uploaded to meteociel are corrupted, or the model just does not make sense. 

Here it is, tho you should consider what Ruben is saying. Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

In the meanwhile, 12z GFS comes out with a sobering thought. Posted Image

 

 

Cheers, renders it useless then, oh well!

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This winter is far from the norm, as evidenced by 2 much warmer than average months.

 Do you have any maps to show? From December and January?

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 Do you have any maps to show? From December and January?

Here's January's from the MetOffice

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

December:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean2013.html

 

1.7c and 2.1c above average. That's as far from the norm as a 1 month constant cold spell is.

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 Do you have any maps to show? From December and January?

 

I know we don't live in Poland or Russia lol, but a few days/a week, of snow and frost is a reasonable goal in a UK winter. Hence the interest in the this thread, we all know the UK is rather unfortunately placed for a prolonged wintry spell, but more often than not a SSW will be beneficial to the general synoptic pattern than can deliver such a spell. So far this winter many have yet to see a flake of snow let alone a proper continental type freeze up. So although moving to your specified countries would no doubt give us what we seek, I think we will just have to continue our hunt for snow in the UK. And for longer term predations this thread, and the science behind Stratospheric forecasting, has been a very useful tool in winters past. And is proving to be so in this winter, though not with the results many many desire.

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