Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Buried

Indeed a good post, but I feel I have helped to shunt this thread off course and we should let it get back on course and maybe you could start another thread on the basis above...I should have said 'may' and 'could' rather than 'it did' above.  It all may be coincidence and I certainly can't prove otherwise.

So let's hope this PV does not anchor over Greenland

 

regards

 

BFTP

[Buriedundersnow]

Buried

Indeed a good post, but I feel I have helped to shunt this thread off course and we should let it get back on course and maybe you could start another thread on the basis above...I should have said 'may' and 'could' rather than 'it did' above.  It all may be coincidence and I certainly can't prove otherwise.

So let's hope this PV does not anchor over Greenland

 

regards

 

BFTP

 

 

in a way it might be relevant to this thread as we are always hearing on here that the stratosphere leads the troposphere from top to bottom and there are theorys out there that solar activity affects our weather so who is to say that during periods of low solar activity there isn't some sort of factor playing on the top of the stratosphere which affects where the PV sets up which then feeds down through to the troposphere causing the PV to take up home over Siberia which then goes on to affect us during solar lows.

 

just a thought but it could help initiation of SSW with the PV being set up over Siberia then this would aid in early snow cover over Eurasia which has been said to be a big help towards an SSW further down the line.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[jonboy]

I for one believe that solar influences on the strat are not yet fully understood and with the likes of Geoff Sharp visiting and contributing to this thread can only add to our knowledge and understanding of the drivers during winter. I would not therefore like a separate thread.

[lorenzo]

Solar influences on the stratosphere are well researched. Dr Karin Labitzke is the key author on the subject at the Free University of Berlin. Resume Brief here

 

There are many papers newer than this, however this is a good one to have a flick through.

 

ftp://geosp-server.aquila.infn.it/isss/ASSE06/Labitzke.pdf

 

 

With respect to the impact of solar activity on the precise location of the Polar Vortex with respect to increased solar flux, not something I have seen studied in a paper yet.

[Snowy L]

Solar influences on the stratosphere are well researched. Dr Karin Labitzke is the key author on the subject at the Free University of Berlin. Resume Brief here

 

There are many papers newer than this, however this is a good one to have a flick through.

 

ftp://geosp-server.aquila.infn.it/isss/ASSE06/Labitzke.pdf

 

 

With respect to the impact of solar activity on the precise location of the Polar Vortex with respect to increased solar flux, not something I have seen studied in a paper yet.

 

Are there any sites that give current observations for solar flux 10.7cm?

[joggs]

You mean http://es-ee.tor.ec.gc.ca/e/ozone/Curr_allmap_n.htmThanks Chio.

Thanks.

[cooling climate]

Are there any sites that give current observations for solar flux 10.7cm?

Trying to post the link but not working.http://www.solen.info/solar/

 Solar effects the stratosphere no one is arguing there but a few days of moderate

activity will not have an almost immediate effect on troposphereic weather it does not

work like that. You would have a lag effect which would start in the upper atmosphere

and work its way down effecting the tropics first I would have thought and then down

stream effects elsewhere.

There is no way the Sun would have played any part in the intensity of the storms tracking

across the atlantic when the sun's activity went from low to moderate in the last few days.

Activity is now moderate to high by the way.

Last years failed beasterly also had nowt to do with a small uptick in solar energy.

Ozone over the northern hemisphere and the Arctic has been above normal all year

and the deviation from normal at this present time can be seen below.

This is one of the reasons among several that I think we will see a negative AO this

winter along with a negative NAO.

Edited October 24, 2013 by cooling climate

[Snowy L]

solar.png

Trying to post the link but not working.http://www.solen.info/solar/

 

Thanks, so we are above 150 solar flux at the moment, good news seeing as we are in West Phase QBO.

[cooling climate]

[forecaster]

ozone 24.10.13.gif

 

What are we looking at here? Degrees from normal? What level?

[Snowman.]

What are we looking at here? Degrees from normal? What level?

Ozone level, I believe.

Edited October 24, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

solar.png

Trying to post the link but not working.http://www.solen.info/solar/

 Solar effects the stratosphere no one is arguing there but a few days of moderate

activity will not have an almost immediate effect on troposphereic weather it does not

work like that. You would have a lag effect which would start in the upper atmosphere

and work its way down effecting the tropics first I would have thought and then down

stream effects elsewhere.

There is no way the Sun would have played any part in the intensity of the storms tracking

across the atlantic when the sun's activity went from low to moderate in the last few days.

Activity is now moderate to high by the way.

Last years failed beasterly also had nowt to do with a small uptick in solar energy.

Ozone over the northern hemisphere and the Arctic has been above normal all year

and the deviation from normal at this present time can be seen below.

This is one of the reasons among several that I think we will see a negative AO this

winter along with a negative NAO.

Have to agree to disagree CC.  It is precisely this increase in solar activity which I anticipated why I suggested there may be a turnaround in October with increasing storminess.  Its not proof but yet another correlation to add.  And moderate to high activity timing brings us this potential storm hit. 

 

BFTP

[chionomaniac]

And perhaps it is time for the link to the solar activity and October storminess to be discussed in a thread of it's own. After all, I can find a link to justify the jet stream powering up through increased seasonal baroclinicity coinciding with a poleward surge of negative AAM leading to an increase in mid/high latitude westerlies without even looking at the solar activity.

[Snowy L]

solar.png

Trying to post the link but not working.http://www.solen.info/solar/

 Solar effects the stratosphere no one is arguing there but a few days of moderate

activity will not have an almost immediate effect on troposphereic weather it does not

work like that. You would have a lag effect which would start in the upper atmosphere

and work its way down effecting the tropics first I would have thought and then down

stream effects elsewhere.

There is no way the Sun would have played any part in the intensity of the storms tracking

across the atlantic when the sun's activity went from low to moderate in the last few days.

Activity is now moderate to high by the way.

Last years failed beasterly also had nowt to do with a small uptick in solar energy.

Ozone over the northern hemisphere and the Arctic has been above normal all year

and the deviation from normal at this present time can be seen below.

This is one of the reasons among several that I think we will see a negative AO this

winter along with a negative NAO.

 

I know I'm not using it to forecast storms I'm using it for stratospheric forecasts.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

And perhaps it is time for the link to the solar activity and October storminess to be discussed in a thread of it's own. After all, I can find a link to justify the jet stream powering up through increased seasonal baroclinicity coinciding with a poleward surge of negative AAM leading to an increase in mid/high latitude westerlies without even looking at the solar activity.

That's good Ed, so why weren't folk warned of what may be coming then?  And more importantly the track of the jet.

Besides its not to do with just October storminess Ed, but I think you know that. 

Its to do with whether it affects the jetstream, the track of the jetstream and the reactions on the jetstream at anytime which inturn decides the locality of High and Low pressure systems.  Funnily enough I think nearly everyone on here is striving to see if the collective we can improve our way of forecasting further into the future?

 

BFTP

[Cheshire Freeze]

The thread has been somewhat derailed. I usually agree with you Fred and I can't say I disagree that solar activity has an effect on weather and climate, however- given what we've seen so far this cycle RE the sun, I can't see how such high solar flux levels are going to maintain themselves for another month; let alone the rest of winter.

 

I agree with Ed in as much as the current synoptics can be attributed to seasonal factors. Also FWIW Ed, I think you have end of November called correctly i.e cold. I posted a few weeks back in the winter thread that I expected an unsettled and potentially stormy spell before becoming colder throughout November. I still stand by this.

[Buriedundersnow]

That's good Ed, so why weren't folk warned of what may be coming then?  And more importantly the track of the jet.

Besides its not to do with just October storminess Ed, but I think you know that. 

Its to do with whether it affects the jetstream, the track of the jetstream and the reactions on the jetstream at anytime which inturn decides the locality of High and Low pressure systems.  Funnily enough I think nearly everyone on here is striving to see if the collective we can improve our way of forecasting further into the future?

 

BFTP

 

 

agree with the last sentence there and think that solar activity maybe doesn't have to be one of the main talking points but it does have to be considered along with everything as we know from two other periods of low solar activity it does have a knock on affect that seems to affect our weather and that means that there has to be some overall affect on the whole atmosphere and it would be a bit silly not to try and learn what these possible affects might be because if its happened in the past then its going to happen again and it would be good to be able to give something to those in the future to help them with understanding what might happen.

 

I know this is the strat thread but if there does happen to be some affect its worth keeping an eye out for like.

 

could we have more or less warming during these periods.

 

could warmings be stronger or weaker overall during these periods.

 

do we get more or less wave activity.

 

does it affect the PV.

 

like everything in life nothing can be proven or dismissed till it has been looked into and we are sure there either is an affect or not.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The thread has been somewhat derailed. I usually agree with you Fred and I can't say I disagree that solar activity has an effect on weather and climate, however- given what we've seen so far this cycle RE the sun, I can't see how such high solar flux levels are going to maintain themselves for another month; let alone the rest of winter.

 

I agree with Ed in as much as the current synoptics can be attributed to seasonal factors. Also FWIW Ed, I think you have end of November called correctly i.e cold. I posted a few weeks back in the winter thread that I expected an unsettled and potentially stormy spell before becoming colder throughout November. I still stand by this.

Aaron

I indeed suggested above that we maybe have another thread and admitted this one had got off track, no problem with that....and you put it much better by the way.  Time now to move on, I call Nov differently

 

BFTP

[sebastiaan1973]

http://www.weer.nl/weer-in-het-nieuws/weernieuws/ch/f7f43c2f28638b36372340b256f69cbe/article/wat_gebeurt_er_de_komende_winter.html

 

 

One of the largest Dutch Commercial Weather Organisations, Meteo Consult published yesterday an article about the Stratosphere and SSWs. Although nothing new for the people at this topic. It is a nice introduction for those without any knowledge. It states the chance for a SSW are limited this year, according to research by Labitzke and van de Loon. Some minor mistakes in the article, but nevertheless in my opinion it's only good when the public is informed.

 

Please use goole translate if your Dutch ain't that good

http://translate.google.nl/

 

Hoewel het weer er nog op geen aanleiding toe geeft, werpt de winter van 2014 zijn schaduwen alweer vooruit. Zoals ieder jaar rond deze tijd verschijnen de eerste berichten over hoe het weer in de winter zal uitpakken. Bijna elk jaar zitten daar spectaculaire verhalen tussen, variërend van Arctische glijbanen via de koudste winter in meer dan 100 jaar tot ‘horrorscenario’s’.

Ook bij Meteo Consult maken we jaarlijks een winterverwachting, gebaseerd op de voorzichtige verbanden die er lijken te zijn tussen het weer in de aanloop naar de winter en de gebeurtenissen tijdens de winter zelf. Altijd met als dikke voetnoot erbij dat de betrouwbaarheid van dergelijke exercities zeer gering is. En dat successen, die er af en toe wel degelijk zijn, waarschijnlijk meer op toevallig geluk dan op ‘kunde’ berusten. En toch is het leuk om het te proberen.

Teleconnecties
Waar we het van moeten hebben bij het maken van winterverwachtingen, is van zogenoemde ‘teleconnecties’. Verbanden die er mogelijkerwijs tussen het optreden van grootschalige gebeurtenissen op zee, in het Arctisch gebied, in de hoge bovenlucht en dat dan op allerlei plaatsen tegelijkertijd en het weer. Het is bij voorbeeld goed voorstelbaar dat er een link is tussen grootschalige stromingspatronen en de plaatsen waar hoge- en lagedrukgebieden komen te liggen.

Stromingspatronen op hun beurt kunnen weer worden beïnvloed door verdelingen in zeewatertemperaturen en dat dan vooral in de oceanen. Een bekend voorbeeld van zo’n patroon is El Niño, een periodieke sterke opwarming van het zeewater in de Grote Oceaan, langs de evenaar en tussen Indonesië aan de ene kant en Peru aan de andere kant. De grootste afwijkingen naar boven in de watertemperatuur doen zich daarbij aan de kust van Zuid-Amerika voor. De effecten van een sterke El Niño kunnen enorm zijn en bijna wereldwijd hun tol eisen.

Het idee dat er gebeurtenissen zijn die het weer gedurende een jaargetijde (zoals de winter) zo sterk beïnvloeden dat de effecten ervan zelfs boven de natuurlijke grilligheid ervan, die in ons deel van de wereld erg groot is, uitstijgen, is dus niet zo raar. En zeker in een jaargetijde als de winter, dat minder dan welk ander seizoen ook ten prooi valt aan de (thermische) grillen van de zon, is het dus leuk om ze te herkennen en ervaring op te doen met de eventuele effecten ervan.

Allerlei indices
Zonder ze nu allemaal te gaan uitleggen, kun je dan denken aan de NAO-index, de AO-index, de AMO index, de PDO-index, de Madden-Julian Oscillation, de ENSO (El Niño en La Niña) en nog een aantal andere indices die het verschil aangeven in temperaturen tussen het Arctische gebied en de gebieden rond de evenaar, zowel op de Grote als op de Atlantische Oceaan. Veel van die indices kunnen iets zeggen over de kracht en de ligging van de straalstroom en over de kansen op en de mate waarin situaties optreden die je in de meteorologie als blokkades zou kunnen omschrijven. Grote en sterke hoge- en lagedrukgebieden blijven dan langere tijd op hun plaats liggen en zorgen ervoor dat een eenmaal ingezet weerbeeld langere tijd aanhoudt. Bij voorbeeld winterweer.

Komt er een SSW?
Een speciale gebeurtenis, en daar kijken we wel even iets langer naar, die de afgelopen twee winters kleur heeft gegeven is het optreden van een plotseling opwarming van de stratosfeer (Sudden Stratospheric Warming – SSW) boven het Noordpoolgebied. In de winter van 2012 was er hoogstwaarschijnlijk een verband tussen het optreden van die plotselinge opwarming van de stratosfeer en de plotselinge en hevige vorstperiode, die ons die winter in de eerste helft van februari nog vlakbij een Elfstedentocht bracht. De SSW van eerder dit jaar beïnvloedde het winterweer in Nederland ook sterk en dat dan vooral gedurende de maartmaand. Toen ontstond boven het Noordpoolgebied een groot hogedrukgebied dat ervoor zorgde dat de kou daar naar het zuiden wegstroomde en ook onze omgeving bereikte. Maart was daardoor een wintermaand.

De grote vraag is natuurlijk of er de komende winter opnieuw zo’n SSW komt? Is daar iets over te zeggen? Het antwoord is: ja, waarschijnlijk kunnen we daar wel iets over zeggen. Onderzoekers Labitzke en Kunze hebben in 2009 een verband gevonden tussen het optreden van SSW’s, een windregime in de stratosfeer boven de evenaar (de QBO) en de activiteit van de zon.

QBO, zonneactiviteit en SSW
Dat windregime boven de evenaar betreft het deel van de atmosfeer tussen 20 en 35 kilometer hoogte. De wind waait daar afwisselend uit het westen en oosten, op basis van een tijdsduur van steeds 28 of 29 maanden. De afgelopen twee winters zat de QBO in zijn oostelijke fase, de komende winter in een sterke westelijke fase. Als parameter waaraan we de activiteit van de zon kunnen afmeten, nemen we de zogenoemde Solar Flux 10.7 cm, een radiogolf die van de zon op aarde uitkomt. De hoeveelheid van dit type radiogolven die de aarde bereikt is een goede graadmeter voor de hoeveelheid Uv-straling die de zon uitzendt. En die is weer sterk gecorreleerd aan de activiteit van de zon. Hoe groter de Solar Flux is, hoe groter ook de activiteit van de zon.

Het verband is het volgende. In jaren dat de QBO oostelijk is, treden SSW’s in het poolgebied voornamelijk op als de activiteit van de zon laag is (Solar Flux tussen 70 en 150). Is de activiteit van de zon groot (Flux tussen 150 en 250) dan is de kans op zo’n SSW in het Noordpoolgebied erg klein tijdens de oostfase van de QBO. Bij de westfase is het verband precies andersom: de kans op het optreden van een SSW is dan groot als de zon erg actief is (flux tussen 150 en 250) en juist erg klein bij geringe activiteit van de zon (flux tussen 70 en 150).

Geen SSW dus?
We weten inmiddels dat de QBO de komende winter stevig in zijn westelijke fase zit, dus zullen we het volgens dit verband van een grote activiteit van de zon moeten hebben. Nu zit de zon op dit moment in zijn maximum voor wat zijn activiteit betreft, maar (en er is op deze site al vaak over geschreven) gaat het tegelijkertijd om een uiterst zwak maximum. Het grootste deel van de tijd zit de Solar Flux tussen 100 en 120 (nu heel even 146) en dus ruimschoots in het inactieve gebied. Omdat het maximum tijdens de winter voorbij is, zullen die waarden naar verwachting alleen maar minder worden. En daarmee is, met de westelijke fase van de QBO, de kans op het optreden van een SSW waarschijnlijk zeer klein. Sinds 1942 is het maar een keer gebeurd, in het jaar 2009.

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Chiono : to be honest I feel this thread has lost its shine somewhat, why don't we monitor the use of this thread and keep it a technical discussion by those who have insight, last year every time I saw a new post on hear it made me quiver with excitement , knowing what I was about to read was very productive and gave me an understanding on what the next 6wks may deliver. Maybe a separate thread for a stratosphere general discussion ?

I miss the class this thread had when it was yourself , gp , and 2/3 others if I'm honest.

No disrespect to anyone else , I think we all agree though hand on heart.

Edited October 25, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[UV-RAY]

Chiono : to be honest I feel this thread has lost its shine somewhat, why don't we monitor the use of this thread and keep it a technical discussion by those who have insight, last year every time I saw a new post on hear it made me quiver with excitement , knowing what I was about to read was very productive and gave me an understanding on what the next 6wks may deliver. Maybe a separate thread for a stratosphere general discussion ? I miss the class this thread had when it was yourself , gp , and 2/3 others if I'm honest.No disrespect to anyone else , I think we all agree though hand on heart.

+1. Can we keep this thread just for the technical stuff and set up another for general discussion on Stratospheric conditions and Solar effects and impacts.

[chionomaniac]

Yes, I agree with this which is why I asked for it to be kept on topic. I guess that it is a victim of its own success!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Yes, I agree with this which is why I asked for it to be kept on topic. I guess that it is a victim of its own success!

oh absolutely , this thread has international status , and that's no joke, but what a shame it would be if it lost its reputation , just down to non related posts , I think there is 3 maybe 4 posters on this thread that I look out for , and to keep it right up there in a league of its own , let's keep it tight. After all it's quality not quantity right? And on that note. Is there anything more you can shed light on looking toward the latter half of November into December? Iv read lots of discussions regarding a possible bitter latter half of November, the cfs has been strongly hinting at this for a while now , and I'm aware that we have wave 1 activity hitting the strat at present , but from my understanding it's really wave 2 we need to look for ? Is there any strong mountain talks taking place or forecast to take place that may hinder the strengthening of the polar vortex?I remember last year there was wave 1 and 2 activity in November that lead gp to give 80% confidence of a December of up 4c below normal in places , which as we no didn't happen , but very nearly could of ie failed easterly . But never the less it kept us all on our toes right from the offset , but as we no last autumn was very different from this one .

[chionomaniac]

I don't think that we need to limit posters SSIB- rather posters should make sure that what they are posting is relevent to the thread and not self serving their own agenda. After all, we are all here to increase our stratospheric knowledge and no-one should be excluded from that.

 

Will be giving more detailed thoughts before the end of the month - but I think that the latest forecasts are more in line with where I expected the strat to be earlier in the month. Still sticking to the idea that the vortex will increase in strength throughout November and that this may teleconnect to a strong 500 hPa Atlantic Ridge going by previous years by mid November.

Edited October 25, 2013 by chionomaniac

[johnholmes]

I don't think that we need to limit posters SSIB- rather posters should make sure that what they are posting is relevent to the thread and not self serving their own agenda. After all, we are all here to increase our stratospheric knowledge and no-one should be excluded from that.

 

AS you post earlier chio it is probably a victim of its own success. How to keep it to the standard of the last 2-3 years now it is so popular is hard to see what anyone can do without making it a restricted access. Chat with Paul perhaps?