Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[chionomaniac]

Hi all,

I am a complete novice when it comes to the science of the stratosphere but I am trying to learn the basics at least!

I study the various indicators for changes in that part of the atmosphere, and one chart caught my eye this morning, and I was wondering if one or more of the knowledgeable posters could explain the significance, if there is any, of what this chart shows:

chk_t10_nh_15122013.gif

These are the 10mb temperature changes over the last week and my attention was drawn to the dark red area over Asia which, according to my interpretation of the chart legend, would seem to be showing a substantial temperature rise in the latest chart of the series.

I am beginning to grasp the whole idea of stratospheric warming and its impact on the normal cyclonic, circumpolar W-E flow in the troposphere, so is the apparent temperature increase indicative of such a warming?

Excuse my ignorance! I doubt if I shall ever understand the physics involved here but I am finding this whole area of meteorology quite fascinating.

Any comments would be greatly appreciated!

Hi OldMetMan.

 

The temperature change seen on those Japanese model do show a slight warming over Asia as a result of the recent increase in wave activity over this region. This has remained at the surf zone and has not penetrated the vortex - a far greater amplitude of wave would be required to disrupt more. The graph that sebastiaan has posted from the Italian research suggests that they forecast a far greater amplitude of wave activity for February and it will be interesting to see if this will be enough to disrupt the vortex.

 

Edited December 17, 2013 by chionomaniac

[OldMetMan]

Hi OldMetMan.

 

The temperature change seen on those Japanese model do show a slight warming over Asia as a result of the recent increase in wave activity over this region. This has remained at the surf zone and has not penetrated the vortex - a far greater amplitude of wave would be required to disrupt more. The graph that sebastiaan has posted from the Italian research suggests that they forecast a far greater amplitude of wave activity for February and it will be interesting to see if this will be enough to disrupt the vortex.

 

time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_OND_NH_2013.gif

Many thanks Chionomaniac. I'm beginning to understand the process a bit better and what to look for in the charts.

From what you say, it seems the PV will hold its ground for much of the winter, with any disruption unlikely until Spring at the earliest. Not good news for lovers of cold weather!

Thanks again,

OMM

[Recretos]

The thing is, and this is more regarding longer term forecasts, is that I feel we have been close to making a breakthrough for a while now and the work of those such as Stewart Rampling who have always suggested that long wave patterns are not simply random, but can be predicted and re-occur time and time again when the starting teleconnective conditions are the same will be vindicated in their thoughts. 

 

I had the same feeling all along. Studies of this particular kind are also not really that old, so I am sure that there is some great potential in it, just waiting to be further discovered.

In a certain way, perhaps similar to recent years, when most of the public never heard of the polar vortex, let alone an SSW event. It was kinda a "taboo" topic, reserved for people who can work around the heavy physics. But now, every year there is more emphasis on the real potential and role of the stratosphere in winter synoptic patterns. And it is also getting more and more popular and recognized with each passing year. And even tho it is not really an easy subject, people seem to like it overall and the intensity of an SSW and the potentialy good outcome for winter lovers, around the N hemisphere.

In the mean time, GFS control run kicks it up a notch, with the max. temp. at -23°C.

 

 

Best regards.

[UV-RAY]

Thanks for the great link, Sebastiaan. From reading that it would appear great news that Judah Cohen has approached them to enter a future collaboration. It certainly seems that they are onto something and this could be groundbreaking for long term winter forecasting. Note the colder February hinted at for the UK but stong vortex conditions likely early Jan. The thing is, and this is more regarding longer term forecasts, is that I feel we have been close to making a breakthrough for a while now and the work of those such as Stewart Rampling who have always suggested that long wave patterns are not simply random, but can be predicted and re-occur time and time again when the starting teleconnective conditions are the same will be vindicated in their thoughts. The Italians seem to been able to analyze the autumnal vortex conditions and have used this to be able to predict the following winter vortex state, And so far this winter their prediction correlates very well. It is a pity that we see so many longe range hopecasts out there that do a lot to denigrate from the work of the true researchers. The Italians work still has to be published and peer reviewed and so until this occurs we should be more cautious, but the fact that they have predicted this winter in advance will give us some kind of mark to judge the authenticity of their work without peer review. Interestingly, their own winter forecast does fit in with the previous analogue composite years that I have used to base NW winter forecasts - again, it will be interesting to see how this plays out as I am a strong believer in the predictability of repeated patterns and that the butterfly effect may not be quite as true as initially thought .

How would this work fit into differing UV output which IMO is the key into the poleward movement of the Hadley Pressure Cell?

[cooling climate]

Thanks for the great link, Sebastiaan. From reading that it would appear great news that Judah Cohen has approached them to enter a future collaboration. It certainly seems that they are onto something and this could be groundbreaking for long term winter forecasting. Note the colder February hinted at for the UK but stong vortex conditions likely early Jan.

 

The thing is, and this is more regarding longer term forecasts, is that I feel we have been close to making a breakthrough for a while now and the work of those such as Stewart Rampling who have always suggested that long wave patterns are not simply random, but can be predicted and re-occur time and time again when the starting teleconnective conditions are the same will be vindicated in their thoughts. The Italians seem to been able to analyze the autumnal vortex conditions and have used this to be able to predict the following winter vortex state, And so far this winter their prediction correlates very well. It is a pity that we see so many longe range hopecasts out there that do a lot to denigrate from the work of the true researchers. The Italians work still has to be published and peer reviewed and so until this occurs we should be more cautious, but the fact that they have predicted this winter in advance will give us some kind of mark to judge the authenticity of their work without peer review. Interestingly, their own winter forecast does fit in with the previous analogue composite years that I have used to base NW winter forecasts - again, it will be interesting to see how this plays out as I am a strong believer in the predictability of repeated patterns and that the butterfly effect may not be quite as true as initially thought .

This is good news as you say. The two Indexes are closely linked in fact I remember

reading on the American forum that some were saying the OPI was a rip off of Cohen's

work which is the wrong way to look at it.

Before reading this I was just posting on the seasonal thread about my poor winter forecast

and quoted the OPI index along with the SAI as the ones to watch in future to give us a heads

up perhaps as to the state of the stratosphere during the approaching winter.

I certainly never foresaw the extent and forcing of the very cold mid stratosphere that we have

now.

[keithlucky]

Major strat warming JAN -FEB?

http://t.co/eR6fSEa2Gf

Edited December 17, 2013 by keithlucky

[bluearmy]

Major strat warming JAN -FEB?

http://t.co/eR6fSEa2Gf

 

possible slowdown, possible ssw .................   anything is 'possible'

 

anyway, back to the here and now - recretos spotted -23 on the gfs control 12z. the op was also showing the highest 10hpa temps i've seen forecast so far in deepest fi.  we seem to have lost the wave 2 signature on the temp profile with a lack of warmer temps over n america no longer squeezing the lower temps as we saw modelled a few days ago. also appears that the parent segment heads back to the siberian side with the p/v stretched across to canada.

[UV-RAY]

How would this work fit into differing UV output which IMO is the key into the poleward movement of the Hadley Pressure Cell?

Anyone?

[chionomaniac]

Anyone?

That question is far too difficult to answer simply, SI!

[UV-RAY]

That question is far too difficult to answer simply, SI!

Not the answer I was expecting but one I fully understand due to the infancy of any research into this area.

Edited December 18, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[sebastiaan1973]

possible slowdown, possible ssw .................   anything is 'possible'

 

anyway, back to the here and now - recretos spotted -23 on the gfs control 12z. the op was also showing the highest 10hpa temps i've seen forecast so far in deepest fi.  we seem to have lost the wave 2 signature on the temp profile with a lack of warmer temps over n america no longer squeezing the lower temps as we saw modelled a few days ago. also appears that the parent segment heads back to the siberian side with the p/v stretched across to canada.

 

It seems to early to watch carefully the stratospheric developments. The Polar Vortex is too strong. With the progession of the season, the vortex will slowly reduce its strengh. New chances in januar?

[karyo]

Nice to see the Asian warming a feature in every GFS run now. The 12z GFS is developing it just within 240 hours while a few days ago it was at the extreme end of the run. It would be nice if it develops more as it moved towards Alaska.

I guess it won't be long before it gets picked up by the ECM stratospheric forecast.

Karyo

[bluearmy]

 

Nice to see the Asian warming a feature in every GFS run now. The 12z GFS is developing it just within 240 hours while a few days ago it was at the extreme end of the run. It would be nice if it develops more as it moved towards Alaska.I guess it won't be long before it gets picked up by the ECM stratospheric forecast.Karyo

 its already showing on the latter frames of the ecm 10 day forecast but not making any inroads into the vortex strength. if anything the zonal winds forecast to be even stronger.

[karyo]

   its already showing on the latter frames of the ecm 10 day forecast but not making any inroads into the vortex strength. if anything the zonal winds forecast to be even stronger.

 

 

It may need more days until it has a weakening effect on the vortex or there may be further attempts down the road.

 

Either way, I see it as a positive sign compared to how things looked a few days ago.

 

Karyo

[Recretos]

As the GFS control run backs down to -36°C max. temp at 10mb, the GEFS ensemble mean goes up to -31°C, which is the highest forecasted so far this year. 

 

 

 

In the meantime, CFSv2 is still in overdrive with its best scenarios, with -8°C Max. temp. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Best charts yet, warming on both sides of the pole contributing to a stretched vortex.

 

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013121818&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

 

 

Elongation occurring down to 30mb as well.

 

 

 

 

 

384 I know but warming ever so slightly even over the pole.

 

 

[phil nw.]

Best charts yet, warming on both sides of the pole contributing to a stretched vortex.

 

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013121818&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

 

 

Elongation occurring down to 30mb as well.

 

 

 

 

 

384 I know but warming ever so slightly even over the pole.

Yes just posted the same on the MOD thread.This is the first sign of something for a while-worth monitoring.

It may reform but this is what we need and more of it.

[snowking]

 

 

 

 

 

In the meantime, CFSv2 is still in overdrive with its best scenarios, with -8°C Max. temp. 

 

Bears a striking resemblance to a certain Mr O'Toole's January composite:

 

 

And then of course we still have this setup this morning:

 

 

With the ECMWF picking up on something similar by day 10:

 

GFS:

 

ECMWF:

 

 

I wonder when we might see the first 'BOOM' in the stratosphere thread this year...

 

SK

Edited December 19, 2013 by snowking

[phil nw.]

Bears a striking resemblance to a certain Mr O'Toole's January composite:

 

 

And then of course we still have this setup this morning:

 

 

With the ECMWF picking up on something similar by day 10:

 

GFS:

 

ECMWF:

 

 

I wonder when we might see the first 'BOOM' in the stratosphere thread this year...

 

SK

Yep signs of some warming from wave 2 forecasted activity from yesterdays ECM SK which underlines what GFS later modeling was showing yesterday.

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=ta2&lng=eng

 

just getting down to 50hPa level.No sign yet of mean zonal winds reducing but as ECM only shows to day 10 this may come later.

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=u&lng=eng

 

Promising signs though that we see the vortex under  stress.

It's a mighty beast at present but every bit helps.

[Tamara]

Maybe Carinth's Austrian Weather Bureau are making the right call about the jet stream fragmenting and pressure rising over the arctic into January... 

 

As Phil says, every little helps - whether we see changes sooner, or later

 

These are only very tentative early forecasts anyway, but I suspect that taking the +QBO and also the SAI into account, which is not pre-disposed favourably like last year towards encouraging -AO feedbacks that it will take more than one decent bite at stretching and splitting the vortex and it will re-organise very quickly indeed. We saw the first proper results at ground level from vortex instability just into the second half of January this year - its hard to envisage those results so soon this coming mid January with factors so less favourable

Edited December 19, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Snowy L]

Much improved wave forecasts too today with that massive wave 2 breaking beginning to move down the stratosphere on days 9 and 10.

 

 

 

[Recretos]

CMC starting to ramp it up a bit, with the control going to max. temp at -25°C. Tho the temperature spatial placement looks kinda funny.

 

 

 

 

The latest GFS Control going up to -23°C.

 

 

 

Best regards.

[karyo]

Shall we start to get quietly optimistic? Please say yes...

Karyo

[feb1991blizzard]

 

 

Very good warming now leading to a predicted split at 10hpa.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013121912&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

 

 

EDIT : or certainly very near to a split!

 

 

Good probagation as well.

 

Edited December 19, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[snowking]

And the FI warmings just keep on ramping up:

 

 

By this stage the tropospheric vortex is pretty shredded too. All still a bit too far away to be excited about just yet (To help answer Karyo too)...the time I generally start to get a little more excited is when this falls in to the range of the ECMWF, and we see some consistency in the picture between the GFS and ECMWF stratospheric outputs for a few days. So if all this comes in to the range of T+168 and both the ECMWF and the GFS still show a consistent picture, thats when I tend to allow myself to feel like a kid again!

 

SK