Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[Gael_Force]

The European MiKlip project (decadal prediction on a regional basis) will be looking at the role of the solar cycle interaction with the stratosphere. Called STRATO, the brief below gives details.

 

 

The role of the stratosphere for decadal climate prediction

The project STRATO aims to study and evaluate the importance of the stratosphere for mid-term predictions of climate change. The focus is laid on the quantification of reactions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system to decadal stratospheric variability. Recent analyses of observations and data from numerical model simulations show a clear impact of decadal stratospheric fluctuations on the troposphere. Therefore one can proceed from the assumption that a consideration of stratospheric processes will lead to improved decadal climate predictions. STRATO concentrates on investigations of the role of the decadal solar activity (i.e. the 11-year solar cycle, cf. Figure 1) and internal stratospheric variability on decadal time-scales and the subsequent tropospheric reactions (cf. Figures 2 and 3).

[johnholmes]

The European MiKlip project (decadal prediction on a regional basis) will be looking at the role of the solar cycle interaction with the stratosphere. Called STRATO, the brief below gives details.

 

 

 

http://www.fona-miklip.de/en/302.php

 

http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/wissenschaft/projekte/miklip-projekt.html

those look an interesting read

[picog]

Looks like the 30hPa temperature has finally come back to "normal" for the time of year.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

[Cloud 10]

Things looking quite tranquil in the stratosphere at the moment...

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-2.93,84.73,512

[summer blizzard]

Things looking quite tranquil in the stratosphere at the moment... http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-2.93,84.73,512

You should worry if its not, summer easterlies ate the norm.

[Cloud 10]

You should worry if its not, summer easterlies ate the norm.

 

Well that's bad news for Norm...

[summer blizzard]

Well that's bad news for Norm...

-40 is a stratospheric easterly.

[Cloud 10]

-40 is a stratospheric easterly.

 

10mb temperatures are a bit lower than normal over the polar regions at the moment.

 

 

Perhaps an early cooling this year?

[Interitus]

10mb temperatures are a bit lower than normal over the polar regions at the moment.

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifcompday.6N8uHdpocT.gif

 

Perhaps an early cooling this year?

 

Not sure whether this is just related to lower than average stratospheric temperatures particularly since the mid-1990s believed to be a response to greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone for example, but not checked to compare with other years to see if this year marks anything different.

Here is a presentation on stratospheric temperature trends given last month - http://old.ecmwf.int/newsevents/meetings/workshops/2014/GPS_Radio_Occultation/presentations/Seidel.pdf

[Nouska]

Dipping a toe (more accurately, a digit) into this fascinating subject.

 

A fairly recent scientific paper on solar influences on Atlantic climate variability comes to the conclusion that the processes likely take place in the stratosphere. The paper is behind a paywall but Science Daily has a report.

 

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140309150437.htm

 

excerpt.....

 

 

The results of these analyses revealed large and abrupt temperature and salinity changes in the north-flowing warm current on time-scales of several decades to centuries. Cold ocean conditions were found to match periods of low solar energy output, corresponding to intervals of low sunspot activity observed on the surface of the sun. Using a physics-based climate model, the authors were able to test the response of the ocean to changes in the solar output and found similar results to the data.

"By using the climate model it was also possible to explore how the changes in solar output affected the surface circulation of the Atlantic Ocean," said Prof Ian Hall, a co-author of the study. "The circulation of the surface of the Atlantic Ocean is typically tightly linked to changes in the wind patterns. Analysis of the atmosphere component in the climate model revealed that during periods of solar minima there was a high-pressure system located west of the British Isles. This feature is often referred to as atmospheric blocking, and it is called this because it blocks the warm westerly winds diverting them and allowing cold Arctic air to flow south bringing harsh winters to Europe, such as those recently experienced in 2010 and 2013."

Meteorological studies have previously found similar effects of solar variability on the strength and duration of atmospheric winter blockings over the last 50 years, and although the exact nature of this relationship is not yet clear, it is thought to be due to complex processes happening in the upper layers of the atmosphere known as the stratosphere.

 

Given the fact we are now in the declining phase of current cycle, with prognosis for low and extended minimum, there may be much to focus on over the coming winter/s.

[knocker]

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation(2014) has had it's 2 largest drops on record. #weather #wx #climate #news pic.twitter.com/Ci6xVTTS2K

[Cheshire Freeze]

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation(2014) has had it's 2 largest drops on record. #weather #wx #climate #news pic.twitter.com/Ci6xVTTS2K

 

Yep and have seen a link to the winter NAO analogues in the comments section....

 

pic.twitter.com/iquIdUSgas

 

60-40 weighting in favour of a -NAO winter.

Edited July 22, 2014 by CreweCold

[summer blizzard]

Yep and have seen a link to the winter NAO analogues in the comments section.... pic.twitter.com/iquIdUSgas 60-40 weighting in favour of a -NAO winter.

I'm on my phone so I can't but could somebody look at years with similar drops and then breakdown by ENSO.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'm on my phone so I can't but could somebody look at years with similar drops and then breakdown by ENSO.

 

Just having a cursory glance, the analogues for QBO data include '62, '09, '00 and '91.......Interestingly '09-'10 saw a moderate Nino- which looks like where we could be this year. I'm sure someone will come along and crunch some numbers in due course. Could do with Snowking seeing your post.

 

Another '09-'10 style winter would do me nicely thank you very much.

Edited July 22, 2014 by CreweCold

[Gael_Force]

Here's the graph of ENSO - very mixed bag for the analogue years and as we don't yet know how strong a warming may take place (perhaps Modoki) it is too early for crunching numbers.

 

I would also be looking at solar cycle phases too.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's clear the years we need to avoid out of the list are '91-'92 and '72-'73. '79-'80 looks a good fit, dependent on how strong the Nino is. Obviously I wouldn't grumble at a '09-10', '62-'63 or even a '79-'80.

[Gael_Force]

Here's an interesting recent paper that looks at some of the issues of our discussion.

 

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/2/024004/pdf/1748-9326_9_2_024004.pdf

[Recretos]

The "negative" jet is quite strong at 10mb at 10N lat. across the globe.

 

 

And will remain so for a while, as we are deep in the warm season. 

 

As for the QBO it will of course remain well in the negative waters.

 

Regards.

Edited July 23, 2014 by Recretos

[sebastiaan1973]

http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/butler+polvani+deser-ERL-2014-online.pdf

seperating the straospheric and troposheric pathways of ENSO teleconnections.

 

[snowking]

Just having a cursory glance, the analogues for QBO data include '62, '09, '00 and '91.......Interestingly '09-'10 saw a moderate Nino- which looks like where we could be this year. I'm sure someone will come along and crunch some numbers in due course. Could do with Snowking seeing your post.

 

Another '09-'10 style winter would do me nicely thank you very much.

Only had a chance to have a brief look but in terms of the QBO drop, 62, 79 and 09 certainly stand out as having the closest parallels in terms of the scale and timing of the drops. Matching these against ENSO indexes and one would imagine the closest parallel we have will be 09-10. Most certainly not to be sniffed at, though it should be noted that solar activity has been, up until now, much stronger than back then...whether this remains the case going in to the winter (as some would have us believe) will be interesting to see, and I suspect we are now past the peak.

 

I'll take a more in depth look for analogue years later in August when I have some time off.

 

SK

 

EDIT: Just adding latest IRI ENSO forecast to show the likely direction - seems like a mean peak around 0.6-0.9, which would sit somewhere between 79 and 09

 

Edited July 23, 2014 by snowking

[Nouska]

This research is interesting in that it may tie in with the work from the Italian meteorologists on the Eurasian October index.

Once again, it is being attributed to a top-down influence.

 

 

It has been proposed that the solar variability also alters

the spatial structure of the NAO (Kodera, 2003), a low solar

activity being related to a more confined NAO signal. This

complicates the analysis of solar influences on the NAO. We

analysed another circulation index, namely the Eurasian index

(representing the pressure see-saw between western and

eastern Europe) and found a significant relationship with the

11 yr cycle. This is an indication that this index is more linearly

and steadily connected to the solar activity than the

NAO index.

 

 

 

One of the main candidates is the

“top-down†mechanism (see Sect. 4.2 of Gray et al., 2010,

and references therein), which originates from the larger variability

in the UV band, its impact on the temperatures in the

stratosphere by means of changes in the ozone’s production

rates, and the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere.

Ineson et al. (2011) and Chiodo et al. (2012) recently

simulated this process using an ocean–atmosphere climate

model, producing results which are very similar to those

we found in the SLP reconstruction, even though they used

the standard DJF winter.

 

 

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/6275/2013/acp-13-6275-2013.pdf

[crikey]

A warming spot at 10hPa in the SH near Australia curently. Models suggesting a massive cold outbreak in about 8-9 days time

If ACCESS forecast eventuates this event will produce the best cold pool since the pre 70's

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1270972/Re_Stratospheric_sudden_warmin#Post1270972

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1270966/2

[Cheshire Freeze]

Only had a chance to have a brief look but in terms of the QBO drop, 62, 79 and 09 certainly stand out as having the closest parallels in terms of the scale and timing of the drops. Matching these against ENSO indexes and one would imagine the closest parallel we have will be 09-10. Most certainly not to be sniffed at, though it should be noted that solar activity has been, up until now, much stronger than back then...whether this remains the case going in to the winter (as some would have us believe) will be interesting to see, and I suspect we are now past the peak.

 

I'll take a more in depth look for analogue years later in August when I have some time off.

 

SK

 

EDIT: Just adding latest IRI ENSO forecast to show the likely direction - seems like a mean peak around 0.6-0.9, which would sit somewhere between 79 and 09

 

 

Cheers SK. Interestingly both years produced Greenland blocking around the late December/January period. This was more successful at bringing cold to the UK in '09/'10 but the timings match up almost exactly. There was even an attempted easterly period at almost the exactly the same period too

 

 

The failure of this to establish (and stronger vortex) in '79/'80 could be due to differences in solar activity and/or Enso index.

Edited July 24, 2014 by CreweCold

[MattH]

Few (very) early interesting comments in here....

 

Oh how time flies hey. Another month or so and the slate is wiped clean after the horrific 'performance' of last winter, of which I would hope, from a stats point of view, is unlikely to occur again this year!

 

The 'ingredients' which came together last winter were beyond comparison in the end and clearly the complete lack of any cold weather was such a slap in the face, for those who like it of course, compared with the previous years. There are certainly some positivies already in the mixing pot in terms of a change of QBO phase compared with last winter and the current ENSO phase as we move into winter, in my opinion anyway, doesn't look too bad. Clearly a lot more to be looked at to gauge some possible outcomes this coming winter, but hopefully after the horrendousness of last winter, we will at least be granted some respite from a winter which brought nothing but floods, gales and misery for thousands.

 

I think there is a middle ground here for those who may read this as well and think that cold and snow isn't any good either. A quick point is that despite some disruption that can occur with cold and snowy conditions, at least the likes of last winter can't be repeated if a winter is generally colder and less 'stormy' than last year. I certainly know what I will be hoping for this year after missing out on a winter last year and look forward to the usual 'suspects' coming to the front in the next month or two as we get the 2014/2015 strat thread off the ground. Here's to a winter, this year,  that is NOT dominated by a strat vortex that aided to bring nothing but misery for a large portion of the UK like last winter....

 

Cheers, Matt.

[Weather-history]

I found this little ditty from 1914 in my archives.

I doubt it is meant to be sung to a rock beat!

The Ballad of the Stratosphere

I am the rolling stratosphere

I long to perturbate

So I tickle the top of the troposphere

To make him undulate

My temperature is 215 (two fifteen)

On Kelvin's absolute scale,

Though it's never been taken in a louvred screen

It has in a comet's tail

I rule the air beneath my feet,

I'm in a stable state,

When the sun is shining through a cirrus sheet

My base I elevate

I was discovered, most men agree,

By Teisserenc de Bort,

From Trappes his balloons he sent floating free

Through my "Great Inversion" floor.

In England Dines has found me out

With instrument so light;

And my secrets he's sought with courage devout,

And correlation might.

But no correlation ratio,

For kilometres nine,

Can explain to me why a small shallow low

Brings rain from the land of wine.

Where Simpson made a dash for me

Antarctic East wind blows;

So he tried calm days when (Admiral B.)

Smoke vertically rose.

I am the rolling Stratosphere,

I keep, need I relate,

By the radiation of the Atmosphere

In a thermal steady state.

Professor H. H. Turner

Edited August 3, 2014 by Weather-history