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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014


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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

 

Really snowy? They seem to have been pretty good from my perspective. temps always verify a little downgraded in intensity but not to an extent to makes a significant difference. The predicted heights seem to have been ok re vortex splits/placement.

Why sound so condescending when answering a post.Agreed snowy. The t300 plus charts some 12plus days ago look nothing likethey do now especially higher up around the 1mb level. Although at thatrange this is only to be expected I suppose.
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

I wonder though how often modeled vortex splits at the top levels-1 down to 30hPa-actually transmit further down to impact the troposphere?

What i am suggesting is that we perhaps get too hung up over those top level warming forecasts/splits.

Whether accurate of not we have seen those warmings frequently showing at 10hPa this Winter and maybe we should be waiting for any apparent effects lower down before raising expectancy of a pattern change.

We have seen vortex stretching being shown right down to 100hPa modeling but often in the wrong shape for us ie.Canada to Siberia with the Uk in the westerlies.

I can't recall any complete vortex disruption and zonal wind reversals being forecasted below 30hPa for any length of time other than the brief periods shown recently when we nearly developed a Scandinavian block.

On that basis what we have seen in the Stratospheric charts have been pretty clear and have translated into what we ultimately have had on the ground so to speak.

Let's just accept that this year was always going to be less promising and the very cold mid-season vortex has proved to be very resiliant to any wave events.

There has been some partial splits but it seems N.America has seen all the cold so far and the effect of the Aleutian high has not helped our chances by keeping the core of the vortex to our nw.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I wonder though how often modeled vortex splits at the top levels-1 down to 30hPa-actually transmit further down to impact the troposphere?

What i am suggesting is that we perhaps get too hung up over those top level warming forecasts/splits.

Whether accurate of not we have seen those warmings frequently showing at 10hPa this Winter and maybe we should be waiting for any apparent effects lower down before raising expectancy of a pattern change.

We have seen vortex stretching being shown right down to 100hPa modeling but often in the wrong shape for us ie.Canada to Siberia with the Uk in the westerlies.

I can't recall any complete vortex disruption and zonal wind reversals being forecasted below 30hPa for any length of time other than the brief periods shown recently when we nearly developed a Scandinavian block.

On that basis what we have seen in the Stratospheric charts have been pretty clear and have translated into what we ultimately have had on the ground so to speak.

Let's just accept that this year was always going to be less promising and the very cold mid-season vortex has proved to be very resiliant to any wave events.

There has been some partial splits but it seems N.America has seen all the cold so far and the effect of the Aleutian high has not helped our chances by keeping the core of the vortex to our nw.

 

 

much agree with those thoughts phil, I am a complete numpty re the details above the Trop but with the exception of 2 or 3 superb posters in this thread there are far more who perhaps are a bit thin shall we say on understanding the more detailed ideas of this. IF some deep cold does arrive then the prediction by chio in the winter forecast will be pretty much spot on from my perspective.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Why sound so condescending when answering a post.Agreed snowy. The t300 plus charts some 12plus days ago look nothing likethey do now especially higher up around the 1mb level. Although at thatrange this is only to be expected I suppose.

Sorry cc but snowy specifically referred to 10hpa. No condescending tone intended but I fear your frustrations may be getting the better of you. Tbh, it's good to see such intense wave activity in the face of one of the strongest winter strat vortex's we've seen and the consequences for the trop. All good data to add to our understanding of the strat/trop relationship. I note you are still commenting on the trop output coming to terms with the current warmings. I can't understand how this happens when the model is one and the same from top to bottom, be it ECM or ncep. Infact, now that the ECM ens have 91 levels right to the top of the strat, the fact that only one out of 50 members gives a sub 2c London max over the next fortnight says it all to me.
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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

Not sure if this should be in this thread or the model thread as my ramblings do move on away from just the stratosphere later on.

 

Anyway, we have seen some fairly decent warming showing up over the past few weeks at 10mb and to be fair it has been pretty consistent. The problem to me is that there seems to be a clear disconnect between that level and not too much further down the stratosphere. And putting aside any effects it may have in weakening the vortex at the very top, it will be of little use to us IMO. Perhaps we are putting too much emphasis on what is coming down through the levels (or not) as opposed to the influence back up from the troposphere itself. 

 

Interesting to note that the top 9 daily combined wave 1 / 2 amplitude (at 60 deg) events are, 5 days from January of this year and 4 days from February of that infamous 1989 winter. ..

1st: 12/02/1989: 3,202
2nd: 09/01/2014: 3,149
3rd: 07/02/1989: 3,052
4th: 10/01/2014: 3,038
5th: 13/02/1989: 3,034
6th: 08/01/2014: 3,007
7th: 11/01/2014: 2,999
8th: 12/01/2014: 2,906
9th: 11/02/1989: 2,893
 

Co-incidence? That said, it was a very different winter in that whilst yes it was similar in the fact it was driven almost entirely by the vortex throughout, the vortex was much more tightly bound leading a very positive winter AO. The jet further north and Bartlett conditions for most was the theme.

 

Leads me on to winter 1985/86. This was the winter I posted reference to a few times early on. To my mind, it always seemed to have the greatest analogue to our 13/14 and as it turns out it too had very strong combined wave 1/2 event at the same time as ours this year. In fact, very close...

10th: 05/01/1986: 2,882
 
Note, 1st - 10th are from over 5,200 days worth (Nov 1st-March 31st, 1979 - now)
 

All 3 (85/86, 88/89, 13/14) were pretty +NAO going through Dec/Jan but maybe the dye for a good Feb 86 was set with a -AO and +PNA setup Dec/Jan. Good to look through archives at the build up through Jan and into Feb of that year though. What was noticeable was that although the zonal spell prior to the high retrogressing NE into Scandi on the 27th was quite, errr, zonal as we are experiencing now, the lows were getting past the Meridian unlike now because of the block to our East.

 

Bottom line, I am no wiser than I was yesterday. But there are very few, if any, signals pointing to a way of this for at least the next 10 - 14 days.

 

This morning's ECM charts continue to offer up some hope I suppose, in another winter this chart would have this thread buzzing, look at the reversal here being forecast...

Posted Imageecmwfzm_u_f168.gif

 

First time this winter as well, we have had a few days worth of forecasts pointing towards some more favourable EPV activity

Posted Imagefluxes.gif

Winter 1985-86 was mild for the first three weeks of December, however, there was some high pressure over Greenland during this time but it was never intense enough to affect the UK.  It was around Dec 25th / 26th 1985 that the Greenland High intensified more and gave us a cold end to Dec 1985.  It then stayed cold through the first ten days of Jan 1986 with snowfall in places, and a decent fall for the northern part of England.  From around the 11th to 23rd Jan 1986 it saw a milder zonal setup take hold, though temperatures were never especially high.  It turned colder again with snow in places on the 24th, and during the last week of the month heights built over Scandinavia and finally let the easterlies in on the 30th, setting us up for a very severe February.

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

all this warming of the strat and talk of an ssw has only been in this thread and none of those forecast bared any fruit. The u.k met have alot mor data to play with than we have here and they them selvs didn't buy into the strat warming. Although the mets glo5 model did pick up a strat warming signal for early jan nothing came of it. What ive said it came from ian f him self. I hope i havent misquoted his post. If i'm rite then chio him self wasn't very hopeful of an ssw this season, i could be wrong though.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

fi gfs strat forecasts moving the vortex from east canada to east greenland and elongated to siberia. If pattern reflected in the trop would see the cold mobile replaced with less cold mobile for nw europe. More chance of a nw/se look developing across the uk which i believe is expected by exeter.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Doubt very much the troposphere will follow the Mid to upper strat at all. Should expect to see

blocking showing up to our north in the next couple of weeks. I would expect the models to

start picking up on this soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

I see nothing in yesterdays ECM forecasts to give indications of any change to be honest.

Mean zonal wind and temperature forecasts going the wrong way again to suggest any further disruption for now.

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/fluxes.gif

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/temps.gif

 

still plenty of wave activity in the 10 day forecasts but the status quo remains which has been the story of the Winter so far.

I guess the further into February we go then some seasonal warming of the vortex will start to show as the Polar night comes to an end but by then we may be looking for any blocking in March at the earliest.

Just my thoughts on current forecasts.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

I have been looking through past stratospheric temperatures, and found that it seems that in recent years, significant stratospheric warmings have led to some decent cold spells.  A cold spell developed within a week of one in Jan 2013.  There was another major warming in Jan 2009 and around a couple of weeks after the early Feb 2009 cold spell developed.  There was also a stratospheric warming in mid Jan 2012, and we did get a cold spell in early Feb 2012. 

 

However, significant cold spells haven't always followed stratospheric warmings, there wasn't one in Nov 2010, or in early / mid Dec 2009.  However, there was one in late Jan 2010, and Feb 2010 continued blocked and on the cold side.  There wasn't much in the way of strat warmings in winter 1995-96 either.

 

A major stratospheric warming certainly helps the UK see a cold spell, after a major warming it can occur within days, or sometimes up to two weeks after. It doesen't guarantee it, as blocking doesen't always set up favourably to bring cold air to Britain.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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Posted
  • Location: Ringwood, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Ringwood, Hampshire

Possible warming at 384 hours?? 

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

A quick look at Ozone Dobson units and placement for Winter 2013/14. Low amounts measured and all contained above Siberia towards the Bering Sea. http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/Scripts/big_image.php?date=2014-02&hem=N

Also North Atlantic where current wave is showing.

The closest comparison I see to this pattern from the satellite era records is Winter 1989/90

http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/Scripts/big_image.php?date=1988-02&hem=N.

Would it surprise anyone that Winter 1989/90 was in the top ten mildest re CET and top 3 wettest since records began.

It did have a dry sunny Spring for England and Wales.

An educated guess for the next wave would say North East Asia/ Bering Sea. As Recretos states above, unlikely any down welling to lower Troposphere from next wave either.

ENSO predicted to remain slightly above neutral towards El Niño until summer.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html.

Feelings of possible La Niña towards the end of year.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Would it surprise anyone that Winter 1989/90 was in the top ten mildest re CET and top 3 wettest since records began. 

 

Well like this year, Winter 1989/90 was another where I did not see a single flake of snow and didn't during the following Spring either, so no that doesn't surprise me so far!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

recretos, whether you are a git is irrelevant !  you are merely stating what the models have been showing which is why this thread has been so quiet for a good few days.  the latter frames of the zonal winds on berlin this morning tell their own tale.  fwiw, we are about 7 degrees latitude away from a  technical SSW (noted the date Ed) during this current period but as you say, there is no downwelling and if anything,  the reversal of flow above 70N looks to have propogated up from the trop into the upper strat.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Yet, despite the similarities with the horrid winter of 1989/90 nobody forecasted such a mild winter!

Why is that? Is it because we pay attention to what we want to see and ignore the rest?

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU

hi everyone

off topic

 

north atlantic power lows UK includind strong PFJ

summary ( 22.02.2014 - 07.02.2014 )

fu berlin germany

loop

===
northern hemisphere mslp forecast
ncep nws noaa
Edited by aginob
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Well it wouldn't be the GFS if it didn't cruelly give us some hope in FI. Going for a warming very late in the run resulting in a near clean split

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014020612&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=372

 

Was hoping it would be a result of wave-2 breaking and that the ECM would show this, but it's not really showing a significant increase on its 10 day forecast. Something to keep an eye on at least. This is all very late in the day though.

Edited by Snowy L
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

 

Call me a "git" if you wish, but as I said in my last posts, at the present moment the only thing this warming 30km-50km above seems to be doing, is eventually helping to send more energy into the N. Atlantic/Canadian sector via the split and reformation of the polar vortex. Posted Image Now I don't know if you either don't realize it, or don't want to realize it. Posted Image

 

Kind regards.

 

No, all you are doing is telling the truth, top post, since the reformation of the vortex rather than a favourable split and propagation was on the agenda, my interest has waned somewhat.

 

This chart looks not too bad to me but until it looks like propagating and coming into the reliable timeframe, it has to be caution.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014020612&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

 

Also preferably with a wider split in between the 2 daughter vortices.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Do not agree with regard to the warming not propagating down through the strat to

the trop. This will become increasingly obvious  in the NWP charts over the coming

days. If the warming that is showing towards the end of the GFS runs does verify

then with a pre-condiitioned strat this could lead to extensive northern blocking.

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Posted
  • Location: ontario
  • Weather Preferences: mild temps
  • Location: ontario

Lets recap all this in a orderly fashioned way. I will just give you my interpretation (which has not changed since my last posts) using the "list" I made. Anyone can use it and fill in his/hers own view. 

 

This year, do we have a significant stratospheric warming?                           Not really.

Is the warming propagating downwards?                                                        No.Fixed above 20mb.

Possible influence of the warming on the entire trop-strat layer?                 No. Geopotential height only. 

Do we have a technical SSW?                                                                       No 

Do we have a polar high establishing over the pole in the stratosphere?      No.

Do we have a split vortex?                                                                              Core only

Does the Gph increase greatly in the split cores?                                         Not really

Where are the 2 cores situated?                                                                   Canada and Siberia

Is the split long lasting?                                                                                 Short lasting

Does the vortex reform?                                                                                Yes

Which core takes the dominant role after the reformation?                           The one in the N. Atlantic/Canadian sector. 

Possible effects of the main core on the troposphere?                                  Additional cyclonic energy in the N. Atlantic sector. 

Possible resulting cold spells?                                                                       Under the W flank of the main core - N Canada.

 

Annex?                                                                                                           Yes - Graphics attached bellow. 

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image

 

Call me a "git" if you wish, but as I said in my last posts, at the present moment the only thing this warming 30km-50km above seems to be doing, is eventually helping to send more energy into the N. Atlantic/Canadian sector via the split and reformation of the polar vortex. Posted Image Now I don't know if you either don't realize it, or don't want to realize it. Posted Image

 

Kind regards.

 

Hi Recretos.

I posted once here and i have been reading your posts.

this group is exceptional IMO.

basically u said the whole truth.

I am learning the effects that the PV is having in my region.. Canada and USA.

my question to you is the following:

since we are more then likely to have a year where the PV does not split whatsoever , what other years prior to this one it has ever occurred?

did it ever occur at all ? a non split of the PV?

If so I would assume that since the vortex will remain localized over NA, would that infer a high possibility of a much colder spring then usual?

i would appreciate if someone could provide some feedback.

thanks

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