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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014


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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

Well, I wont go into details, but I cant really see a neg. NAO developing with the residual vortex core looming not really high over Greenland. Posted Image SSW (or the processes actually) should among other things, also raise the core height of the vortex and "remove" its connection with the troposphere over the near pole region. I cant really see this happening in our case. 

 

Looking at the ECMWF control run from 29.1, it is just the contrary. The vortex gets split, but the remaining cores keep the connection with the troposphere, and with the split, the energy gets focused and "perhaps" that is also the reason the control run intensified the Atlantic low in the expected time frame. 

 

Posted Image Posted Image

 

And the reformation after, like in every other model, with the "Atlantic" scenario being the likelihood down in the trop. (Looking only at a specific run in this case)

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

 

In this particular case, the whole relationship can be nicely seen on the 3D perspective of geopotential height. 

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

And the latest GFS. At this point, the low skill from the tropospheric output already starts kicking in, but nonetheless:

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

The bottom line: All this breaking and warming and splitting, all just for the intensification of the Atlantic? Posted Image

Edited by Recretos
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

So the warming that's looking significant to my untrained eyes, will not be having an effect on tropospheric patterns?

 

Is this right? To me the warming looks excellent and well placed, but the tone of the thread from those in the know seems unimpressed by the warming. 

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

So the warming that's looking significant to my untrained eyes, will not be having an effect on tropospheric patterns?

 

I posted more than 10 graphics just above you, showing the (model calculated) effect on the troposhere. Posted Image

 

 

@Gino: Paste some products of those parameters so we can have a look. Tho I use the PV Advection mostly during the storm season.

 

And PV in this parameter does not refer to the Polar Vortex as suggested by the mouseover. Posted Image It is either Potential Vorticiy or Positive Vorticity. At least that is the common when looking at vorticity advections. 

Edited by Recretos
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Posted
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU

good evening

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/?p=2914420

 

here is the complete link

2014 GFS Analyses

http://www.met.nps.edu/~hmarcham/2014.html

 

P.S.: in this weathersite PV is Potential Vorticity

===

===

for next year => 2015

http://www.met.nps.edu/~hmarcham/2015.html

===

archive

http://www.met.nps.edu/~hmarcham/2013.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~hmarcham/2012.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~hmarcham/2011.html

 

etc. ...

===
for recretos

 

@Gino: Paste some products of those parameters

so we can have a look

Tho I use the PV Advection mostly during the storm season

 

i am confused ( PV or PV )

Polar Vortex => PV

Potential Vorticity => PV

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_vorticity

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79257-polar-vortex-or-potential-vorticity

 

 
i've made a mess but a good question
sorry !
Edited by aginob
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Well, I wont go into details, but I cant really see a neg. NAO developing with the residual vortex core looming not really high over Greenland. Posted Image SSW (or the processes actually) should among other things, also raise the core height of the vortex and "remove" its connection with the troposphere over the near pole region. I cant really see this happening in our case. 

 

Looking at the ECMWF control run from 29.1, it is just the contrary. The vortex gets split, but the remaining cores keep the connection with the troposphere, and with the split, the energy gets focused and "perhaps" that is also the reason the control run intensified the Atlantic low in the expected time frame. 

 

Posted Image Posted Image

 

And the reformation after, like in every other model, with the "Atlantic" scenario being the likelihood down in the trop. (Looking only at a specific run in this case)

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

 

In this particular case, the whole relationship can be nicely seen on the 3D perspective of geopotential height. 

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

And the latest GFS. At this point, the low skill from the tropospheric output already starts kicking in, but nonetheless:

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

The bottom line: All this breaking and warming and splitting, all just for the intensification of the Atlantic? Posted Image

So this basically takes the biscuit , we wait all winter for a warming , and all it does is pressure the vortex and make it even more concentrated in the remaining major segment ? Even with this warming , polar flux for the first time this winter , it's still a bleak outlook? Is there a possibility that once the warming hits , and begins to filter down toward the troposphere , could we not see more of a break in the troposphere vortex than been currently modelled ?

As we know we have this downwelling of winds that gets flushed through the stratosphere (peeling the onion!) but surely once the warming takes place and filters down the strat after the flushing of the cold air we will be in a much better place synoptically than where are now?

I'm just having reall trouble getting my head round the fact we look out every year for this , and there doesn't even seem to be a hint of anything favourable coming from it .

Hope you don't mind me asking mate :)

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

 

P.S.: in this weathersite PV is Potential Vorticity

 

Yes, as I expected. Posted Image Thanks Gino, the link is very good and there are some good parameters on it, but are not really you average "user-friendly" parameters. Posted Image Too bad it is only analysis. 

 

I will add GEFS time-series, so I wont be off topic. Posted Image

Posted Image Posted Image

 

 

@SSIB: You posted before me, so I didnt saw the post until I posted. Posted Image (how complicated xD).

I will give you a quick one, because I am off to work (darn night shift). Posted Image

 

 

This technically isnt even an SSW. And the vortex gets briefly split, and not disintegrated or getting its cores height greatly increased, speaking for the mid-lower strat. As I have seen on other weather forums, there is a lot of emphasis on the 10mb warming only, mainly because of that darn Meteociel chart, which is clearly not enough to give an analysis on how the whole strat profile looks like and how the heights are responding. 

I dont want to be the guy that puts the nail in the coffin for any winter optimism. I am just stating (or interpreting) the obvious from the recent model runs. :)

 

Regards.

 

Edited by Recretos
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Yes SSIB, we need a laymens explanation lol. Recretos you are a Stratospheric expert, and although your animations and charts are excellent work, for those who dont really grasp the concept they can pass straight over my head, ha!.

 

Im certainly not stupid, and really need to study this area of meteorology a little more.

 

What i understand is that although a warming is occurring, circumstances and interaction with the tropospheric pattern, is not lending itself well to anything of substance for a positive effect right down at our level.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Yes, as I expected. Posted Image Thanks Gino, the link is very good and there are some good parameters on it, but are not really you average "user-friendly" parameters. Posted Image Too bad it is only analysis. 

 

I will add GEFS time-series, so I wont be off topic. Posted ImagePosted Image Posted Image

 

 

@SSIB: You posted before me, so I didnt saw the post until I posted. Posted Image (how complicated xD).

I will give you a quick one, because I am off to work (darn night shift). Posted Image

 

 

This technically isnt even an SSW. And the vortex gets briefly split, and not disintegrated or getting its cores height greatly increased, speaking for the mid-lower strat. As I have seen on other weather forums, there is a lot of emphasis on the 10mb warming only, mainly because of that darn Meteociel chart, which is clearly not enough to give an analysis on how the whole strat profile looks like and how the heights are responding. 

I dont want to be the guy that puts the nail in the coffin for any winter optimism. I am just stating (or interpreting) the obvious from the recent model runs. :)

 

Regards.

I realise that if only looking at 10mb it's misleading , and the fact it isn't a SSW , but just thought/hoped it would be enough to put this disgusting vortex to bed. Thanks for your reply , I really think it's getting to the point now where we kiss goodnight . I'm growing in frustration every day that passes and for my sanity I think I need to move on . A part of me come the summer will be glad of it because we knew we were due one . Just didn't expect one this bad . My heart tells me we still have 6/7 weeks left for a decent cold spell. But my head is telling me if we were to have one , we would be seeing signs by now . We can kiss goodbye to another 2 weeks at the minute I think . Then hopefully we will have some signals !
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Posted
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU

hi everyone

off topic

 

British Isles: 31.01.2014 ... North Atlantic ... Low Nadja ( 940 mb )

 
impressive !
 
UK since xmas 2013 receive a lot of deep lows coming from NE usa
very strong PFJ ( PolarFrontJetstream )
 
Edited by aginob
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Posted
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU

hi to all

 

polar vortex

split yes or not ?

loop

 
what effects will do in the mediterranean sea ? ( when split )
source: 1st  loop => netweather ... source: 2nd loop => ? ( user recretos )
 
Edited by aginob
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

With such a big warming forecast though, surely it's too early jumping to conclusions on how the tropospheric or even the stratospheric geopotential heights will shape up after the warming in 10-14 days time?

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Posted
  • Location: Noord Holland, 1m asl
  • Weather Preferences: winter: cold spells, summer: (thunder)storms
  • Location: Noord Holland, 1m asl

Slightly off topic:I wonder why the tropospheric response is so sluggish, or if any at all. Could there be any relation with the +QBO, and the neutral ENSO and El Nino conditions this season?

 

link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

GFS 00z beginning to show some tropospheric reaction to the warming above? High pressure over Greenland and a split troph vortex ?

More of an observation than a statement of fact lol.

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Dyer ECM charts this morning apart from this one, but is this arrow right at the end of the bottom chart going to ensure the reformation of the vortex at 240 propagates rather than the split?  irony at its best!!!!!!.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Dyer ECM charts this morning apart from this one, but is this arrow right at the end of the bottom chart going to ensure the reformation of the vortex at 240 propagates rather than the split?  irony at its best!!!!!!.

 

Posted Image

Things are not meant to go our way this winter!

The GFS is consistent with the vortex reforming after the split and if anything it strengthens too!

 

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The last 6 operational runs from the GFS have shown pressure building over the UK on the 13th. Now while this could not come to fruition or last a day i'm interested to know whether there are any supporting factors from zonal winds for example that suggest that even if we don't get high latitude blocking that we could move to a pattern where high pressure is more of a feature than rampant zonality.

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

Slightly off topic:I wonder why the tropospheric response is so sluggish, or if any at all.

 

 

GFS 00z beginning to show some tropospheric reaction to the warming above? 

 

 

I cant understand why people seem to believe that there is little or no tropospheric connection, when it is actually screaming out of the models. Posted Image Remember what we used to say? An SSW increases the chances for cold spells, but does not guarantee it. Print it out on A4 paper in bold 48 font, and paste it on the first wall that you see in the morning. Posted Image We will have the warming in the mid-upper strat, but not an SSW, and the vortex split will feature two very decent cores, with a lot of energy going into the Atlantic one. Not to mention the reformation afterparty. So the warming and the split will bring cold weather, but for the USA and not Europe at this current time. Europe is not the only continent in the world or the only place where stratospheric dynamics can cause cold spells. Just stating the obvious at present time. Posted Image Seems to me that we all got a little spoiled by the last winters and the stratospheric activities. Posted Image

 

Speaking of current time, here are again some 3D vertical profiles, which might give you the idea of why the models are the way they are at the moment. 

 

ECMWF Control run:

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

UKMO Control run: I even added a bottom up view at the end. 

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

As for the latest GFS 6z. The 20mb level got bugged on the right image, so ignore it. It is correct on the left one. 

Posted Image Posted Image

 

These are the current model outputs. Take it or leave it. Posted Image

 

Regards.

Edited by Recretos
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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

I am almost certain that their will be tropospheric effects from this

warming and with its location I am sure we will benifit from this.A

paper I read on stratosphere warmings(unfortunately I can not remember

which paper this was)stated that the warming can be lost in the mid-layers

only to show up again in the lowest levels of the stratosphere and in the

troposphere.

PS. just read Recretos last post so it will be very interesting to see how

the troposphere reacts in the next two weeks or so.

Edited by cooling climate
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

FI 10hpa has been completely unreliable this winter, never mind 100hpa or the troposphere. Not believing anything until it's on the right side of t192.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

FI 10hpa has been completely unreliable this winter, never mind 100hpa or the troposphere. Not believing anything until it's on the right side of t192.

Really snowy? They seem to have been pretty good from my perspective. temps always verify a little downgraded in intensity but not to an extent to makes a significant difference. The predicted heights seem to have been ok re vortex splits/placement.
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Really snowy? They seem to have been pretty good from my perspective. temps always verify a little downgraded in intensity but not to an extent to makes a significant difference. The predicted heights seem to have been ok re vortex splits/placement.

 

They haven't been as bad as the trop FI charts but it depends what you call FI, the GFS charts were showing an SSW not so long ago, anyhow the ECM 240 charts are really poor this morning and seem to show a big disconnect from the 216 charts in my opinion, unbelievably it looks like another wave 1 attack will be needed to follow up the wave 2 activity, god only knows when this resistant vortex will finally be put out of its misery.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

They haven't been as bad as the trop FI charts but it depends what you call FI, the GFS charts were showing an SSW not so long ago, anyhow the ECM 240 charts are really poor this morning and seem to show a big disconnect from the 216 charts in my opinion, unbelievably it looks like another wave 1 attack will be needed to follow up the wave 2 activity, god only knows when this resistant vortex will finally be put out of its misery.

 

LG, the gfs op run showed a technical ssw at a single point later in the run. happened on a couple of runs over a couple of days  and recretos quickly advised us the extended modelling looked to rebuild the strat vortex thereafter.  the verification looks to be close to what was being forecast but a bit less intense.  it was only ever a 'technical' ssw showing with no obvious downwelling effects on the same run. where we have seen consistency on the week 2 strat temp charts, we have seen decent verification. where we have seen inconsistency - well that speaks for itself.

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Not sure if this should be in this thread or the model thread as my ramblings do move on away from just the stratosphere later on.

 

Anyway, we have seen some fairly decent warming showing up over the past few weeks at 10mb and to be fair it has been pretty consistent. The problem to me is that there seems to be a clear disconnect between that level and not too much further down the stratosphere. And putting aside any effects it may have in weakening the vortex at the very top, it will be of little use to us IMO. Perhaps we are putting too much emphasis on what is coming down through the levels (or not) as opposed to the influence back up from the troposphere itself. 

 

Interesting to note that the top 9 daily combined wave 1 / 2 amplitude (at 60 deg) events are, 5 days from January of this year and 4 days from February of that infamous 1989 winter. ..

1st: 12/02/1989: 3,202
2nd: 09/01/2014: 3,149
3rd: 07/02/1989: 3,052
4th: 10/01/2014: 3,038
5th: 13/02/1989: 3,034
6th: 08/01/2014: 3,007
7th: 11/01/2014: 2,999
8th: 12/01/2014: 2,906
9th: 11/02/1989: 2,893
 

Co-incidence? That said, it was a very different winter in that whilst yes it was similar in the fact it was driven almost entirely by the vortex throughout, the vortex was much more tightly bound leading a very positive winter AO. The jet further north and Bartlett conditions for most was the theme.

 

Leads me on to winter 1985/86. This was the winter I posted reference to a few times early on. To my mind, it always seemed to have the greatest analogue to our 13/14 and as it turns out it too had very strong combined wave 1/2 event at the same time as ours this year. In fact, very close...

10th: 05/01/1986: 2,882
 
Note, 1st - 10th are from over 5,200 days worth (Nov 1st-March 31st, 1979 - now)
 

All 3 (85/86, 88/89, 13/14) were pretty +NAO going through Dec/Jan but maybe the dye for a good Feb 86 was set with a -AO and +PNA setup Dec/Jan. Good to look through archives at the build up through Jan and into Feb of that year though. What was noticeable was that although the zonal spell prior to the high retrogressing NE into Scandi on the 27th was quite, errr, zonal as we are experiencing now, the lows were getting past the Meridian unlike now because of the block to our East.

 

Bottom line, I am no wiser than I was yesterday. But there are very few, if any, signals pointing to a way of this for at least the next 10 - 14 days.

 

This morning's ECM charts continue to offer up some hope I suppose, in another winter this chart would have this thread buzzing, look at the reversal here being forecast...

post-5114-0-07387700-1391336257_thumb.gi

 

First time this winter as well, we have had a few days worth of forecasts pointing towards some more favourable EPV activity

post-5114-0-81377700-1391336262_thumb.gi

 

 

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