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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014


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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

Remember that the model is one dynamic. The trop model is the same animal as the strat model - we re just looking at the different areas of the atmosphere on the charts we look at. There are no signs on the xtnded ECM ens means from yesterday's 12z suite of any trop response to those Berlin charts derived from the op run.

Ok but then that kind of goes against the whole trop/strat relations doesnt it? Because powerfull wave 2 along with a split vortex surely should have an effect on the trop output in some way regarding a split ? But yet all we see is one big powerful troposphere vortex
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Ok but then that kind of goes against the whole trop/strat relations doesnt it? Because powerfull wave 2 along with a split vortex surely should have an effect on the trop output in some way regarding a split ? But yet all we see is one big powerful troposphere vortex

 

have another look at the NH charts shaun. there is a strong vortex in locations but not one large all encompassing one as we saw earler in the season. it look as though most of  the trop vortex will be over arctic canada in a fortnight with a small chunk left over eastern siberia

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

have another look at the NH charts shaun. there is a strong vortex in locations but not one large all encompassing one as we saw earler in the season. it look as though most of  the trop vortex will be over arctic canada in a fortnight with a small chunk left over eastern siberia

Right ok but surely that leads to more of an influence of a scandi high then ? Back to square one besically it all depends if the wave activity coming up can weaken the vortex sufficiently to allow a stronger influence from it than last.
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Right ok but surely that leads to more of an influence of a scandi high then ? Back to square one besically it all depends if the wave activity coming up can weaken the vortex sufficiently to allow a stronger influence from it than last.

 

i think there is a possibility as the canadian vortex begins to back a bit further west on the exteneded modelling.

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl

The ECM trop run yesterday was questionable. Would love to see the strat data from this mornings 00z. (Or the ens )

I just asked Anthony Sagliani on twitter (he has access to current ecm strat charts)

 

His reply: Shows a potential Day 7 split, but then consolidates over North Pole. Nothing really significant

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Posted
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal
  • Weather Preferences: The most likely outcome. The MJO is only half the story!
  • Location: Fazendas de,Almeirim, Portugal

i think there is a possibility as the canadian vortex begins to back a bit further west on the exteneded modelling.

I'm just beginning to see this a bit differently perhaps now, and the increasingly realistic signposts in the modelling that the Russian/Ukrainian High to the NE might sink SEwards may mean that wave 2 activity on the Canadian vortex (with upstream amplification stuck currently the wrong side of the hemisphere) could give a final shift of the vortex into Siberia (after all the tooing and froo-ing of energy to come) and then we finally get amplification downstream in the atlantic and some cold via route two to the north. Its a long way off, most especially in tropospheric terms, and might not bring the depth of cold we might get from the east - but this winter it might represent something better than nothing. That is, depending if and when such a scenario arises.

Edited by Tamara תָּמָר
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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Excellent 12Z with much higher and more prolonged warming over the right areas. Don't think it's a SSW though as can't find the wave activity charts for further down the strat.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

further to tamara's earlier post, the gfs 12z op does relocate the strat vortex just east of svaalbard once the split has dssipated around day 10. that does imply that the trop is lagging behind (as expected) with extended ens intent on a decent candian centre by day 15. and re ITSY's post above, there doesnt look to be a  SSW on that run although i suspect it does get close around day 8/10 to a technical one in a similar way to berlin this morning which was reversed at approx 68N/10 hpa later in the run.

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

Re the reverse, the most south as the GFS 12z op run goes, is 69N.

 

Posted Image

 

Similar on the GEFS suite:

Posted Image Posted Image

 

And the NCEP "family" is pretty much agreeing what happens after this day 7-10 attempt. Posted Image

 

Regards 

 

P.S.: While I am at it (plotting), here is my next experiment: EP-Flux from ECMWF, NCEP or JRA reanalysis datasets.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

Edited by Recretos
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Thanks for the update Recretos. So if I've got this right we have a reversal but not far enough south to help much given the PV moving over to Canada, so highish pressure likely near the Arctic but unable to do much because of the superpowered jet coming out of the ne USA.

 

Unless this can force the jet much further south then our window of opportunity for cold will be closed, without the PV from Siberia moving over to Canada then we may have had a better chance.

 

The sum total of all this is that unless theres a miracle and the models pick up on something around the optimum period then we can put this winter out of its misery!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Interesting to note JMA is suggesting a strong build of heights over Greenland in the latter part of February - this would suggest the core of the PV weakening substantially and a scandi trough set up. Perhaps the JMA is picking up on possible impact of warming in the upper atmosphere.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Interesting to note JMA is suggesting a strong build of heights over Greenland in the latter part of February - this would suggest the core of the PV weakening substantially and a scandi trough set up. Perhaps the JMA is picking up on possible impact of warming in the upper atmosphere.

JMA was most bullish 10 days ago for the Easterly and snow for about now, in abundance, if i remember rightly...nuff said.
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

I'm just beginning to see this a bit differently perhaps now, and the increasingly realistic signposts in the modelling that the Russian/Ukrainian High to the NE might sink SEwards may mean that wave 2 activity on the Canadian vortex (with upstream amplification stuck currently the wrong side of the hemisphere) could give a final shift of the vortex into Siberia (after all the tooing and froo-ing of energy to come) and then we finally get amplification downstream in the atlantic and some cold via route two to the north. Its a long way off, most especially in tropospheric terms, and might not bring the depth of cold we might get from the east - but this winter it might represent something better than nothing. That is, depending if and when such a scenario arises.

Love your v detailed and technical posts Tamara, but the "mights" and "mays" have delivered nothing so far.........sorry but this winter has had the last laugh every time versus the ever-optimistical posts on here. PV rules!
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Technicalities aside, optimism is an ironic term on the basis of the posts I have made through this winter and the expectations contained therein. You might be better first reading the posts I have made since the early winter (objectively btw) to find the real truth of what I have said and then finding someone else to appropriate your comments rather than following me around the forum with the sort of post as I know you have been, not just in this thread as now, but in others in recent days...Its about the stratosphere, the troposphere and not about the personalities who try to understand these things and give their thoughts, whether they are right or wrong. Try a contribution yourself rather than scorn those who do make contributions.

Edited by Bristle boy
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Posted
  • Location: Ås, Norway
  • Location: Ås, Norway

In general today's Berlin charts do not look too bad with zonal winds clearly on the decline on 1, 10 and 30 hPa. Fluxes are strong and the strongest u-change due to EPV of the season if this verifies. 

 

Posted Image

 

In the mean while, we see temperatures increase.

 

Posted Image

 

Allthough wave-activity is decreasing in the upper stratosphere, wave-1 remains strong at 30hPa.

 

Posted Image

 

The 10hPa charts show a decent split and associated warmings (indicative of wave breaking?).

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

 

The only true downside is the pattern at 30 hPa. The vortex remains pinned - even after it is split- over Greenland and does not show any signs of moving elsewhere.

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Ruben Amsterdam
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin-Ireland...Rome, Italy
  • Location: Dublin-Ireland...Rome, Italy

GFS at 190 hrs, looks good to me.  You'd think that a warming like that would have to condition the troposphere.  What do you think?

 

post-7906-0-89601100-1391171939_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU

hi to all

 

northern hemisphere
ensemble spaghetti

next couple of day
Posted Image

 

clic immage for full zoom

Edited by aginob
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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

I totally forgot about the spaghetti plots. Posted Image Thanks Gino for giving me the idea. Posted Image

 

GEFS/GFS:
Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

damianslaw, on 30 Jan 2014 - 22:07, said:Posted Image

Interesting to note JMA is suggesting a strong build of heights over Greenland in the latter part of February - this would suggest the core of the PV weakening substantially and a scandi trough set up. Perhaps the JMA is picking up on possible impact of warming in the upper atmosphere.

JMA was most bullish 10 days ago for the Easterly and snow for about now, in abundance, if i remember rightly...nuff said.

 

 

JMA was most bullish 10 days ago for the Easterly and snow for about now, in abundance, if i remember rightly...nuff said.

 

JMA has updated the monthly ensemble today and are not showing any build of heights over Greenland - if anything, the anomaly lessens as the month progresses. The four week period is showing much the same as the other models - continuing wet, wild and average to mild. Perhaps you were referring to some other model?

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

GFS at 190 hrs, looks good to me.  You'd think that a warming like that would have to condition the troposphere.  What do you think?

 

Well, that is a pretty impressive warming and Strat forecasts are meant to be more reliable and that isn't exactly that far into FI. Maybe a small chink of hope to look for in the 12z.

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Posted
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU

hi everyone

 

for recretos

no problem ...

 

respect for your great job ( post ... models )

thanks Gino for giving me the idea.

 

the source is Japan Meteorological Agency ( JMA ).

Stratospheric Forecast Monitoring

 

1) Plumes

2) Spaghetti

3) Ensemble mean

4) Each ensemble member

( same as in the ensemble mean, except for each ensemble member )

 

northern hemisphere
plumes for january february and march 2014
===
northern hemisphere
ensemble mean
===
northern hemisphere
ukmo ( metoffice )
 
Edited by aginob
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Posted
  • Location: Ås, Norway
  • Location: Ås, Norway

GFS at 190 hrs, looks good to me.  You'd think that a warming like that would have to condition the troposphere.  What do you think?

 

That is a decent warming, and yet a bit stronger on the 12z it seems.

 

The thing is that the vortex reforms quickly after the split. Let's hope this improves so we can actually see some proper disturbances at 30hPa and lower. 

 

Edit: it's a proper BOOM chart, even within the high res. And still I'm very sceptical, not whether it varifies, but what the impact lower down will be. Any thoughts on this, guys (and girls)?

 

Posted Image

Edited by Ruben Amsterdam
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Posted
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU
  • Location: CH-6044 Udligenswil LU

hi to all

 

thanks interitus for link jma strato frcst

 

and here is an other link from jma

for northern hemisphere frcst

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/acmi.html

go to see animation maps

===

Stratosphere loop and other links

http://scotlandwx.co.uk/links/stratosphere

===

Atmospheric Dynamics Group ( ADG )

http://homepage.usask.ca/~cem600

Edited by aginob
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