Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[Ruben Amsterdam]

No downgrade.

 

 

+4 Towards the centre

 

 

-12 But has pushed a good deal into the Arctic and is pressing on against the frozen core.

 

Todays 06z confirms this development. Funny, GFS was hinting on the strong Asian warming/displacement some days ago, only to switch to a more split-like evolution. Now GFS seems to have picked up on the displacement again and is actually looking pretty at high levels. Could this be due to tropospheric developments ie. MT events? Anyone?

[feb1991blizzard]

what 'mb' do we require the reversal to spread to in order for it to reach the troposphere?

 

Ultimately right the way down to the troposphere (500mb)!, a good benchmark of how good a warming event is though is when it hits SSW territory (a mean reversal at 10mb at 60N), I would be looking for that for the time being and then hopefully see it coming into range of the ECM, 100mb though is usually a reasonable guidance for troposphere. As posted earlier by someone, it does now really look like we are reliant on more warmings as the 0z 500mb output from the operationals is less than inspiring.

Edited January 19, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[Recretos]

Reversal down to 2mb now and a gnats / borderline 3mb.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014011906&var=HGT&lev=3mb&hour=384

 

At 60N, the reversal is down to 1,5mb. But it is lower down around. 

 

  

 

The best run so far this season is still the 06z from 01/01. GFS ran the 00z cycle of 01/01, and then went to the new year model party. And he must've been pretty smashed from the party in the morning when he ran the 06z cycle.

 

  

Edited January 19, 2014 by Recretos

[feb1991blizzard]

At 60N, the reversal is down to 1,5mb. But it is lower down around. 

 

  

 

The best run so far this season is still the 06z from 01/01. GFS ran the 00z cycle of 01/01, and then went to the new year model party. And he must've been pretty smashed from the party in the morning when he ran the 06z cycle.

 

  

 

 

Cannot believe that run, did that just disappear on the next run like the 384 tropospheric outputs do? I wish we could get some more runs like that consistently.  Do you have any view yet as to how this warming might pan out and on what timescale it may affect the troposphere?

[chionomaniac]

I have been away most of the weekend, but I see that we are edging closer to the notional SSW.

 

The amount of residual warming would pretty much do the job on this 10 hPa chart.

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

No signs of an SSW between now and February according to Chris Fawkes

 

@chrisfawkes

.@JJHutch82 I'm afraid it's wishful thinking there are no signs of sudden stratospheric warming between now and February

[UV-RAY]

No signs of an SSW between now and February according to Chris Fawkes @chrisfawkes.@JJHutch82 I'm afraid it's wishful thinking there are no signs of sudden stratospheric warming between now and February

A strange thing to say considering the Sudden in the title.

[SomeLikeItHot]

No signs is a bit strong. Sure its hardly guaranteed "no signs" seems a bit misleading.

[Snowy L]

Apparently wishful thinking equals reading a chart correctly. His explanation is awful as well the reason the ECM isn't buying it is because the projected warming hasn't reached t240 yet. I appreciate it would be foolish to be confident of an SSW in 2 weeks but the signs certainly are there for a big warm up in the stratosphere, I don't know how he can deny that. Whether it leads to an SSW or not is a different story.

[radiohead]

No signs of an SSW between now and February according to Chris Fawkes

 

@chrisfawkes

.@JJHutch82 I'm afraid it's wishful thinking there are no signs of sudden stratospheric warming between now and February

 

I presume by that he means the remainder of January. GFS shows the potential SSW is in early February.

Edited January 19, 2014 by radiohead

[lorenzo]

No signs of an SSW between now and February according to Chris Fawkes

 

@chrisfawkes

.@JJHutch82 I'm afraid it's wishful thinking there are no signs of sudden stratospheric warming between now and February

 

I read that as Chris Fawkes writing no SSW prior to the end of Jan. It does not eliminate SSW and Ed's post above shows exactly what the GFS thinks will happen on or around the 5th, which is in support of the date picked by our strat host some time back.

 

With respect to the myriad of influences on the current modelling, the vortex remains King. Here from this afternoon 12z at 100mb.

 

Now / 72hrs / Day 5

 

Between now and 72 hrs we have a split in the vortex at 100mb, so where would you draw the line for FI given that short time frame?

By day 5 the split is most defined with the 2 daughter vortices, before only 5 days later no more split and displacement continues.

 

All this projected to unfold and impact the NWP prior to 29th Jan, which leaves about a week until the warming chart posted above comes to fruition. 

 

Simply put I think with that level of change, a vortex degraded and on it's way out of town, it still wants to drive the frustration through the roof as far as NWP output goes. 

[AWD]

To be fair, that tweet was before the 12z output was out (ie 12z GFS) therefore is a bit misleading now.

[Snowy L]

To be fair, that tweet was before the 12z output was out (ie 12z GFS) therefore is a bit misleading now.

 

Big warming was picked up days ago with several of the previous runs in the last couple of days going for the warming to reach the North Pole.

[Recretos]

To make a quick GFS 12z analysis. I made some cross-sections over latitude and longitude. I was aiming at lines of "points of values". It is meant more as an interesting perspective into the works of the model, and it gives an "in-depth" view of the activity throughout layers. Zonal means are still better overall, but specific lines are sometimes more interesting to watch at least.

So first is the 10mb max. temp in the latitude cross section. Added on the right is the location of the cross section (black line). As it is obvious, the warmth is sitting on a big blob of very cold air. So if it wants to go further down, it has to go either east or west, with the east move being a more viable option.

Next up is the longitude cross section through the area of max. warming in general in the stratosphere. That is at or around 70°N (look at the black line on the right image). What is most notable, is the strong eastward downward propagation. That is also towards the direction of the high pressure wave, which is of course not a coincidence. Besides, you don't expect the warming to just simply penetrate the mid strat. vortex core from above.

Next is the cross section of the max. temperature, which is 49°C at 1mb. Refer to the black line on the right for a better idea of the cross section.

Finishing off with the zonal wind. This is the cross section through the 60N latitude circle. The most notable thing is the large amount of zonality and cyclonic energy in the Atlantic sector, pretty much all the way from the troposphere to the upper stratosphere. The vortex being displaced into this region probably has nothing to do with it? Keeping in mind the low accuracy of the tropospheric layers.

Next interesting thing is the zonal wind at the same line as the max. 10mb temperature before. A decent poleward reversal from the upper strat down to the upper troposphere. It is pretty likely this is also a part of the GFS strat-trop feedback mechanics, meaning that this 12z run is already calculating the feedbacks. Tho I am not sure about the previous runs, since I havent done the cross-sections. Considering the location of the cross section, this downward oriented zonal reverse does indicate the wave 1 pressing more poleward, pretty much trying to go for a legit SSW try.

As for the zonal mean, it looks quite different than the 06z. Notable is a similar feature as on the cross section above, which does tell the story of the wave 1 increasing in strength and pressing poleward (when looking at different times of course).

All in all, this post is meant more as an insight into the works of the 12z GFS and as a test run of new perspectives by "slice and dicing" the stratosphere. These kind of products are good when you are trying to pin-point where a model might make the SSW "contact" with the troposphere. To be fully honest, I am testing all these products mainly for the next season (14/15) which should be one bomb of a season of strat. monitoring, and where all of the products I am testing at the moment, might prove if they are actually helpful with forecasting possible SSW induced effects (where and when), if one might occur.

Best regards.

Edit: Fixed a few typos.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Recretos

[Ruben Amsterdam]

"The most notable thing is the large amount zonality and cyclonic energy in the Atlantic sector, pretty much all the way from the troposphere to the upper stratosphere." 

 

I fear this is a bad thing?

 

Thnx for your great post btw!

[cooling climate]

Silly question but does it matter what a certain Chrisfawkes thinks I would

prefer to believe the consistency of the strat charts myself. As for an

actual SSW this warming does seem to want to have a good crack at it.

Great post again Recretos.

[KyleHenry]

These kind of products are good when you are trying to pin-point where a model might make the SSW "contact" with the troposphere. To be fully honest, I am testing all these products mainly for the next season (14/15) which should be one bomb of a season of strat. monitoring, and where all of the products I am testing with at the moment the next season (14/15) which should be one bomb of a season of strat. monitoring, and where all of the products I am testing with at the moment, might prove they are actually helpful with forecasting possible SSW induced effects (where and when), if one might occur.

The futures bright the future is Recretos. I, like everyone else wish you success in your future plans of predicting precise effects and placements to the lower Troposphere from a SSW. Between Chionomanic the Strat Oracle and Recretos I think you have the entire Strat puzzle nearly sussed. Business partnership in the making ?

[Suburban Streamer]

anyone else encouraged by the longevity of current wave 1 activity.  Last week (unless i've gone mad) i'm sure this was forecast to drop off but the 10 day forecast still shows some decent activity.  Ok so its not the wave 2 that we all crave, but still good to see

 

 

And on the topic of wave 2, perhaps just the slightest hints at day 10 of some resurgence at the very top? (bit straw clutchy i know)

 

Edited January 20, 2014 by Suburban Streamer

[aginob]

hi everyone

 

sorry the questionfor europe what is important to see: wave1 or wave2 ? ( models )

thanks !

[Summer Sun]

No signs is a bit strong. Sure its hardly guaranteed "no signs" seems a bit misleading.

 

Matt Hugo tweeted Chris back

 

Chris, given latest and on-going info this is particularly dismissive, saying "no signs" is incorrect IMO...

[phil nw.]

I keep looking for further signs of vortex break up after some recent promising looking 500hPa modeling but this pv is one heck of a beast to bring down.

We are in a slightly better place now after recent wave activity with the slowing of mean zonal winds and a recent upturn in the Strat. temps.

 

However the graph above shows what a low base we came from and now we seem to be going into a pause in any further weakening for now.

Still those zonal wind reductions to around 20m/s gives us an even chance of some reduction in the westerlies with our Scandi.block holding on for dear life.

We need some more wave activity now to really push the pattern towards further blocking.

Edited January 20, 2014 by phil nw.

[Snowy L]

The start of the warming is coming very close to the high res timeframe of the GFS and will be coming in to the ECM timeframe soon. Hopefully we can see some agreement between the two. So far up to t+240 they both appear to be agreeing, with a small warming in the Russian region not causing too much damage, followed by a weakening of the warming at around t+220-240.

 

 

 

With any luck we should see the bigger warming appear on the ECM 240 chart tomorrow or on Wednesday.

Edited January 20, 2014 by Snowy L

[bluearmy]

the temps on the gfs 12z op final chart looked like they may be showing a ssw at 10hpa. however, the heights reveal a reversal at the very top of the strat only. (as i think was also the case yesterday)

[karlos1983]

It seems from the 00z that the warming is coming into the more reliable time frame now

+180 GFS

And then by +240 warming is well under way,

And we end with this, which would do just nicely thanks

Edited January 21, 2014 by karlos1983

[Ruben Amsterdam]

Yes, GFS is playing Mr. Consistency again, but EC is not on board (temperature)!

 

 

Edit: again large differences between EC01-20 12z and GFS01-21 06z. Check out the difference at 1 hpa by the end of the month. 

Edited January 21, 2014 by Ruben Amsterdam