Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[bluearmy]

 

Interesting 100 mb Fi chart from the GFS with the PV moving well North-East of Greenland

and a strong scandi ridge.

 

I wonder if this is what the GloSea5 has picked up on?

 

NH_HGT_100mb_360.gif

 

100mb fi gfs charts tend to be as poor as gfs fi trop charts. in my experience, they tend to reflect the trop run

[Ruben Amsterdam]

It´s there again (at +348). Warming is also present in upper levels.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Ruben Amsterdam

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

It´s there again (at +348). Warming is also present in upper levels.

Does it matter that the PV is sitting over the UK?? Will it not be very cold???

[Recretos]

I don't know for you guys, but personally I am more interested in the actual wave 1 disposition or the "embedment", than the potential warming.

 

   

Edited January 9, 2014 by Recretos

[cooling climate]

I don't know for you guys, but personally I am more interested in the actual wave 1 disposition or the "embedment", than the potential warming.

 

   

If I am reading this right are you inclinating that we could perhaps see a pressure rises over

Canada, Greenland down the line.

[lorenzo]

Helluva run at 10hPa on tonight 18z. Some see-sawing between the daughter vortices, displacement then eventual split again at that level. Looks like the puzzle is soon going to be as mentioned above, where's it all going to drop...

 

re: Interitus post above thanks for the paper, I would like to think the UKMO do have something a little more advanced, apologies for the Glosea G4 abbreviation this morning meant G5, the joys of  half awake pre-coffee posts. From the discussion, it would appear the Glosea skill level ramps severely when strat leads the output and the evolving predictive ability whether AI, or intuitive programming, allows this model to see pre-cursor waves. Again speculative, never seen the thing just relaying my thoughts on what I have read. 24th you say...

 

Edit - Recretos, brilliant charts again !! Enjoyed looking at those

Edited January 9, 2014 by lorenzo

[Gael_Force]

Helluva run at 10hPa on tonight 18z. Some see-sawing between the daughter vortices, displacement then eventual split again at that level. Looks like the puzzle is soon going to be as mentioned above, where's it all going to drop...

viewimage (1).pngviewimage (2).png

 

re: Interitus post above thanks for the paper, I would like to think the UKMO do have something a little more advanced, apologies for the Glosea G4 abbreviation this morning meant G5, the joys of  half awake pre-coffee posts. From the discussion, it would appear the Glosea skill level ramps severely when strat leads the output and the evolving predictive ability whether AI, or intuitive programming, allows this model to see pre-cursor waves. Again speculative, never seen the thing just relaying my thoughts on what I have read. 24th you say...

 

Edit - Recretos, brilliant charts again !! Enjoyed looking at those

 

They certainly seem to think so - in particular the ability to forecast NAO conditions as seen from the hindcast statistics.

 

 

 

An improved operational Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea5) was introduced by the Met Office in Spring 2013. The new system has an atmospheric resolution of approximately 40km in mid latitudes and 0.25 degree in the ocean. Hindcast simulations of past years show GloSea5 possesses unprecedented skill in predicting the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with an anomaly correlation of 0.6 for the hindcast period. This represents a dramatic improvement over the current generation of seasonal prediction systems, which lack any significant skill in predicting the NAO (anomaly correlations less than 0.2). It suggests that slowly changing components in the climate system (e.g. ocean heat content anomalies) do indeed play an important role in the variability of extratropical atmospheric circulation in winter, as opposed to being predominantly unpredictable weather noise. Importantly, NAO predictability provides predictability of surface winter climate in Europe and the United States. In addition, the system improves the representation of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by reducing the spurious westward extension of the SST patterns in the tropical Pacific seen in its predecessor, GloSea4. This gives increased correlations and reduced mean errors, while maintaining the good ENSO teleconnection patterns seen in GloSea4. The introduction of GloSea5 heralds a possible new chapter in the skill and utility of seasonal predictions.

 

Some flesh on the bones of this new model and what its range of skills will focus on.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/meetings/workshops/2013/Polar_prediction/papers_for_proceedings/SmithD.pdf

Edited January 10, 2014 by Gael_Force

[MattH]

Bye bye wave 2, hello wave 1;

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=ha2&lng=eng

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=ha1&lng=eng

 

There's no doubt now that after the short term split the re-organization of the vortex takes place, primarily as wave 2 activity wanes and obviously this allows the good'ol 'monkey nut' to once again become a nice solid 'peanut'!

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=30&forecast=all&lng=eng#fig9

 

What is interesting is the 00Z GFS run with regards to the long term and this potential pattern;

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140110/00/384/npst30.png

 

That, to me, would be a sound bet given a possible spell of wave 1 activity in terms of the main vortex being significantly displaced as a region of warmth and more anticyclonic conditions develop across a large portion of North America. However, as Ed pointed out some time back, displacements are somewhat less favorable than a split and from my own knowledge this sames to be the case as well. If the end result is a displacement rather than a split into early February then it really will be make or break in terms of where the vortex ends up and also to what potency it has retained. That last 30hPa would not be indicative of Scandinavian height rises in any shape or form.

 

Still a long way to go and I keep telling myself look at last March, but must admit, with time, it could well be a case of just forget about this winter and look to the next of which, I believe, will probably start at least with an easterly QBO than a westerly which is always an added bonus. Given the position of the UK globally and climatologically it was only a matter of time really that we had a winter like this, despite the quite impressive runs of relatively cold winters from 09/10 onwards etc. What also interests me is how we may well progress into spring and summer this year as these last few years the vortex has been non-existent during the March to May time period if you know what I mean.

 

Cheers, Matt.

[snowking]

Indeed there was brief discussion about this last night over in the model thread.

 

Wave 1 is certainly less favourable when you look at statistics. However of course it all depends on where the vortex is when the displacement hits and from which direction the wave pushes.

 

Recent GFS det. runs have been rather keen to start moving the vortex towards the Eastern hemisphere towards the end of this month. It could be that this is trop/strat linked in terms of where successive GFS runs have been suggesting the stratospheric wave 1 activity will "push from" - which looks to have a central point somewhere over towards Alaska.

 

This would be the ideal sort of situation of course - worst case wave 1 tropospherically would be the vortex situated over Greenland and a push from the Central Pacific.

 

Of course it should be noted this is all making the assumption that the wave 1 would not completely dissipate the vortex, that is at least my assumption given how strong it has been.

 

SK

[karyo]

 

Still a long way to go and I keep telling myself look at last March, but must admit, with time, it could well be a case of just forget about this winter and look to the next of which, I believe, will probably start at least with an easterly QBO than a westerly which is always an added bonus. Given the position of the UK globally and climatologically it was only a matter of time really that we had a winter like this, despite the quite impressive runs of relatively cold winters from 09/10 onwards etc. What also interests me is how we may well progress into spring and summer this year as these last few years the vortex has been non-existent during the March to May time period if you know what I mean.

 

Cheers, Matt.

Very realistic post and the first that mentions that this winter may not offer what we want to see despite all the wait.

 

Question: if a displacement is all we get, is it best for it to happen the way the 0z GFS shows? As you say, it would mean no chance for Scandinavian heights but a better chance for heights over the North Atlantic and Greenland?

 

Karyo

[cooling climate]

Bye bye wave 2, hello wave 1;

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=ha2&lng=eng

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=all&var=ha1&lng=eng

 

There's no doubt now that after the short term split the re-organization of the vortex takes place, primarily as wave 2 activity wanes and obviously this allows the good'ol 'monkey nut' to once again become a nice solid 'peanut'!

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=30&forecast=all&lng=eng#fig9

 

What is interesting is the 00Z GFS run with regards to the long term and this potential pattern;

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140110/00/384/npst30.png

 

That, to me, would be a sound bet given a possible spell of wave 1 activity in terms of the main vortex being significantly displaced as a region of warmth and more anticyclonic conditions develop across a large portion of North America. However, as Ed pointed out some time back, displacements are somewhat less favorable than a split and from my own knowledge this sames to be the case as well. If the end result is a displacement rather than a split into early February then it really will be make or break in terms of where the vortex ends up and also to what potency it has retained. That last 30hPa would not be indicative of Scandinavian height rises in any shape or form.

Cheers, Matt.

Regarding the last sentence I would agree thinking that the block would be somewhere over

Canada, western Greenland with perhaps cold zonal or northerly winds for the UK.

Looking back on the NCEP/NCAR stratosphere reanalysis charts for a similar profile I found

the 30mb temperature composite mean for mid Jan 2012

This propagated down to the troposphere resulting in a  very strong Siberian/Scandinavian

ridge which the met at one point thought would bring widespread bitterly cold and wintry

weather to the uk but only ended up affecting the eastern half of the UK.

 

[sebastiaan1973]

Well in my opinion there is no relation between 30hPa and tropospheric location of high and low pressure. So much to premature to say wether it will be good for our chances or not.

[cooling climate]

I should of posted the Gph composite mean for mid Jan 2012 as well.

[Catacol]

Well in my opinion there is no relation between 30hPa and tropospheric location of high and low pressure. So much to premature to say wether it will be good for our chances or not.

 

Seems a bold call. This winter we have seen delayed but quite specific trop responses to 30hPa warming. Much of the warming has been located over in Asia and this has helped locate the vortex towards Canada. For a while we had warmth over the USA and in response the vortex shifted to the east while heights built in behind. It is noit a guarantee that such warmth and consequent distortion of the vortex at a particular level  will automatically filter to the trop, and timings are approximate... but to declare that there is "no relation" would, I suspect, put you in the minority after all the work that has gone on in recent years.

[sebastiaan1973]

Seems a bold call. This winter we have seen delayed but quite specific trop responses to 30hPa warming. Much of the warming has been located over in Asia and this has helped locate the vortex towards Canada. For a while we had warmth over the USA and in response the vortex shifted to the east while heights built in behind. It is noit a guarantee that such warmth and consequent distortion of the vortex at a particular level  will automatically filter to the trop, and timings are approximate... but to declare that there is "no relation" would, I suspect, put you in the minority after all the work that has gone on in recent years.

 

How do you know? Show some prove.

[Winter Monsoon]

How do you know? Show some prove.

 

Must admit it is rather a bold statement.  I have been lurking here for a few years now and would have thought that view is in a minority just from the volume of the knowledge here. Im not criticising you for that view, its your view and i respect you for having it. However im merely highlighting that consensus is that a vortex is just that...a vortex. So by its name it would suggest that there is a relation of all layers to the others, wouldnt it?

[chionomaniac]

I think that when you look at the potential vorticity charts of the whole vortex (1hPa >100hPa) at past events, you will see that there is no set guidance at to where a displacement that resides at 1hPa will reside and affect the vortex at 100 hPa. Any displacement can often curl around the vortex rather like a helter skelter, so that anomalies at the tropospheric level can be difficult to predict. A split vortex tends to have far less of this effect and can be a little more predictable in terms of tropospheric anomalies.

Edited January 10, 2014 by chionomaniac

[cooling climate]

I think that when you look at the potential vorticity charts of the whole vortex (1hPa >100hPa) at past events, you will see that there is no set guidance at to where a displacement that resides at 1hPa will reside and affect the vortex at 100 hPa. Any displacement can often curl around the vortex rather like a helter skelter, so that anomalies at the tropospheric level can be difficult to predict. A split vortex tends to have far less of this effect and can be a little more predictable in terms of tropospheric anomalies.

Yes would agree with this. With a displacement it is like sticking  a pin in the donkey's tail

blindfolded. The point of my post above was that you can not rule anything out as far as

where a block may set up if at all.

[snowking]

Just to illustrate what I was mentioned earlier (and indeed last night over on the model thread) the continual theme from GFS det. runs to move the vortex mostly to the East of the Meridian towards the end of this month:

 

 

 

It's not happening on every single run and it should also be noted that at present there is not strong ensemble support for it, but just an observation and backed loosely by today's Berlin ECM 100mb charts:

 

 

The core of the vortex moves towards Asia/Siberia but at this stage at least still some left trailing across towards Greenland and Canada. The hope is though with the potential warming and possible consequent wave 1 activity looking likely to be towards the Pacific side that we start to move away from the situation where by the majority of the vortex gets displaced towards the Atlantic, instead the hope would be (dependant upon the angle of any potential attack - something which at this stage is still pure speculation I should hasten to add) that any 'leftovers' as it were in terms of pieces of vortex close to Greenland would be pushed away from there and that the majority of the vortex ends up to our East/North-East.

 

That of course still is far from a guarantee of the longwave pattern being conducive to UK cold, but it makes things a heck of a lot easier. I'm probably getting a little ahead of myself here but based upon current observations/forecasts (both tropospheric and stratospheric) thats my take on things potentially later this month.

 

SK

[Tamara]

That was probably a better explanation of broadly the same thing I was thinking/saying in the MOD thread earlier

[cooling climate]

I was thinking the same thing SnowKing when I looked at the northern hemisphere profile

at the end of the run. The greater the warming the better and maybe we will get something

out of this winter.

[Recretos]

GEFS sure doesn't joke this time around.

 

 

 

 

[chionomaniac]

GEFS sure doesn't joke this time around.

 

 

 

 

"Mr Warming, we have been expecting you!"

[DELETED]

"Mr Warming, we have been expecting you!"

Could we finally have some decent runs!!  SSW?

[chionomaniac]

Could we finally have some decent runs!!  SSW?

That was tongue in cheek, Ben, as it is far too early to even speculate! It was just that the ensemble warming towards the end of the month would fit in nicely with pre-winter thoughts.