Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[bluearmy]

the 00z gfs op reminds us this is not quite a 'done deal'. The vortex at the end of the run is not beyond repair, but doesn't look great. Yesterday's Berlin data continues its consistency. whether the zonal wind charts late on are likely to verify unknown but it reminds me that when downwelling begins, it can flush the stronger zonal winds down into the trop, giving a period of enhanced zonality in the high latitudes. If so, our neg AO, won't last too long!

That will mean a lost battle in our attempt to 'win the war', but it is likely one we would lose anyway. (Just another way of saying the current trop charts showing some blocking to our north first half jan wouldn't happen)

[sebastiaan1973]

The GFS 0h is in my opinion not a good run, see 1hPa at 384. It remains rather cool (altough warmer than now) and the vortex remains intact and on his place. But at this range it will change again and again.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014010100&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

Edited January 1, 2014 by sebastiaan1973

[karyo]

We seem to make one step forward (yesterday's 18z) and one step back (today's 0z).

 

Karyo

[Ruben Amsterdam]

We seem to make one step forward (yesterday's 18z) and one step back (today's 0z).

 

Karyo

Reminds me of the song "One step forward, two steps back" by the Desert Rose Band. Luckily GFS06 makes a large step forward (one might even call it a leap at the end of the run).

 

 

Cheers,

 

Ruben

[feb1991blizzard]

The GFS 0h is in my opinion not a good run, see 1hPa at 384. It remains rather cool (altough warmer than now) and the vortex remains intact and on his place. But at this range it will change again and again.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014010100&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

 

 

And it does, lovely 1mb chart on the 6z!

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014010106&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=324

[Snowynorth]

One word for this run BOOM!!!!!

 

[Snowman31]

 

 

Excellent chart, this would surely lead to something interesting.

[IDO]

Interesting:   = 

Edited January 1, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[cooling climate]

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL ON NETWEATHER.

 

The stratosphere warming on the GFS 06z run is off the scale with the vortex

looking totally obliterated. The warming is to the north and northeast of the UK

which should put a smile on all cold winter weather lovers faces this morning.

Plus there is significant warming that starts as early as t240.

Excellent stuff, Now where's that sledge.

[bluearmy]

it would - anyone fancy matching the 10 day 10hpa chart from berlin yesterday with recent gfs op runs to see where it sits re temps and height pattern?? (make sure the timescales correlate!)

[karyo]

Reminds me of the song "One step forward, two steps back" by the Desert Rose Band. Luckily GFS06 makes a large step forward (one might even call it a leap at the end of the run).

 

 

Cheers,

 

Ruben

Indeed Ruben, that looks awesome! Let's hope for some consistency from now on.

 

Karyo

[feb1991blizzard]

it would - anyone fancy matching the 10 day 10hpa chart from berlin yesterday with recent gfs op runs to see where it sits re temps and height pattern?? (make sure the timescales correlate!)

 

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014010106&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=204

[bluearmy]

ECM missing the warmth in ne canada. That's quite important to the evolution

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM missing the warmth in ne canada. That's quite important to the evolution

 

Yes, is the ECM the better verifying model at 10mb at T240 then is the next question to ask??

[cooling climate]

After this mornings relatively  poor GFS 0z strat run I was going to make a post along the lines of

say I would not be surprised to see the strat warming come back stronger and sooner over coming

runs, and then along comes the 06z run and beat me to it.

Wheather this is due to data issues who knows but what a run this morning.

As I posted in the model thread I think along with many more knowledgeable posters on here that

this would have major implications on the troposphere and weather for Europe and the UK.

We would be in prime position for possible major Arctic outbreaks from the east and northeast.

Looking forward to Recretos and others posts on this major upgrade in the warming to come.

Edited January 1, 2014 by cooling climate

[Purga]

OK absolutely the final Stat reference

 

Honest...

[lorenzo]

At work today so cannot post charts, the JMA page has some telltale signs of SSW with respect to EP Flux stratosphere plots, poleward vectors visible on latest output, helluva 06z GFS run also.

 

Stratosphere http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/ep_12z_st_nh.html

 

Trop & Strat http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/ep_12z_nh.html

[sebastiaan1973]

After this mornings relatively  poor GFS 0z strat run I was going to make a post along the lines of

say I would not be surprised to see the strat warming come back stronger and sooner over coming

runs, and then along comes the 06z run and beat me to it.

Wheather this is due to data issues who knows but what a run this morning.

As I posted in the model thread I think along with many more knowledgeable posters on here that

this would have major implications on the troposphere and weather for Europe and the UK.

We would be in prime position for possible major Arctic outbreaks from the east and northeast.

Looking forward to Recretos and others posts on this major upgrade in the warming to come.

 

hi Cooling climate. I wonder if this is true. Is there a relation between warming in the stratosphere and the placement of areas of high and low pressure in the troposhere. Never read something like that in an article (?).

 

Just read a wonderfull new chart from Weerwoord. A Belgium site. Thanks to Lars. http://weerwoord.be/includes/forum_read.php?id=1930965&tid=1930902

Horizontal time, vertical windspeed. Red is oper, blue control, brown average. So not much support for the Oper. Oper shows not a SSW, but it is close call!

Edited January 1, 2014 by sebastiaan1973

[garbagebags]

Well as far as the strat model goes. Doesn't come much better than that.

 

[bluearmy]

hi Cooling climate. I wonder if this is true. Is there a relation between warming in the stratosphere and the placement of areas of high and low pressure in the troposhere. Never read something like that in an article (?).Just read a wonderfull new chart from Weerwoord. A Belgium site. Thanks to Lars. http://weerwoord.be/includes/forum_read.php?id=1930965&tid=1930902Horizontal time, vertical windspeed. Red is oper, blue control, brown average. So not much support for the Oper. Oper shows not a SSW, but it is close call!

Comparing with ECM op, the gfs op zonal wind is much too low Sebastian. A good find there! Edited January 1, 2014 by bluearmy

[Recretos]

After this mornings relatively  poor GFS 0z strat run I was going to make a post along the lines of

say I would not be surprised to see the strat warming come back stronger and sooner over coming

runs, and then along comes the 06z run and beat me to it.

 

I was thinking the same thing. Compared to the general trend of the past runs, 00z run was quite suspicious with its strong negative deviation, almost like a run error. On the other hand, we now have the 6z which is one bomb of a run. But since it has a strong positive deviation from the "mean trend" I am of course taking it with huge reserves for now too, tho I would not call it a run error by any means.

 

Nevertheless, here are again some 3D products. 2 animations, that repeat 2 times.

 

6Z GFS, geopotential height topography. 3 levels, 10mb, 30mb and 100mb. By the end of the run, we can see the obvious wave domination at 10mb, with height rises and the vortex getting the split features. But (there's always a but), it doesnt not yet reflect that much below 20mb. Of course there are some features at 30mb, like the weakening vortex core, and the Atlantic wave coming into picture in the later stages of the run. This is of course because of the downward propagation that I will present later. On the 100mb level however, the vortex remains stable with no disruptions to the mean circulation, except the existing ones. But that is of course because the propagation has not reached this low. In the 6Z, the split features only starts slowly appearing on the 10mb "plate" in the later stages of the run.

The perspective is the standard "USA in front".

 

gfs6.mov 

 

And the side view. The perspective is from Europe. So if you look at the animation above, this one is like looking from the right side in.

Most notable is the substantial weakening of the vortex at 10mb. 

 

gfs6_1.mov

 

Now, as for the upper strat, it took me 1 hour, but I managed to get a basic animation together. Geopotential height topography from 300-384. The levels from top down are again like the last time: 1-2-5-10-30.

Wave activity is really substantial in the upper strat. The upper vortex gets quickly dominated. There is also an obvious and fast downward propagation, that slows down in the mid strat 10-30, due to the normal reduced wave activity amplitude at lower altitude. 

The perspective is again the classical "USA in front".

 

Upper_strat.mov

 

And images of the 384h timeframe, showing the same layers as above in the animation. The perspectives are "USA in front" ("From Europe") in the first (second) image. I dont think I have to repeat the wave amplitude/height "relationship" again.

 

 

 

 

The zonal wind is reversed in the upper strat, but it actually slightly increases with time at the end of the run in the mid strat @60N. But if the run would go further out, it would eventually fall back down. 

 

 

 

The geopotential height anomaly at 10mb is quite substantial. And on the temperature mean it can be seen how the temperature wave propagated down, but has hit a "wall" in the mid/lower strat.

 

 

 

 

Comparing with ECM op, the gfs op zonal wind is much too low Sebastian. A good find there!

 

 

Well, I am monitoring the GEFS output the whole time, and lets just say that I am mainly ignoring it. The model has the top at 2mb. That is too low to grab onto the strong wave breaking in the later stages, of which about 50% is in the lower mesosphere.

Here is how the GEFS mean looks like:

 

 

As I have said before, the only ensemble output that I have any "faith" in, is the ECMWF EPS. It is the only ensemble output that meets the required "pre-processing" conditions to be a viable option. Unless GEFS is right and nothing will happen. Personally I have tested GEFS all this time, and it doesnt seem appropriate as the wave amplitude increases. So my bet would be on the general trend of the operational GFS runs. You can now trust either my opinion which I backed up, or the general "weight" that people put on ensemble forecasts. You have to realize that we are dealing with a different "level" of numerical forecasting here, which unlike its tropospheric counterpart, has much more sensitivity to the model depth.

 

But of course the main GEFS test will come in the next 2 weeks.

 

Best regards. 

Edited January 1, 2014 by Recretos

[bluearmy]

Recretos, last January, ECM ens were clearly missing the upcoming SSW as it topped out at 5hpa. Gefs were more responsive, showing some quick responses around a week after the forecast SSW. clearly the top down strong wave breaking makes the ens inappropriate in top down events. However, the gfs 06z op is approx 10m/s quicker than ECM op on yesterday's 12z.

I am aware that we may see that increase in zonal winds flush down, but day 10 is surely too quick for that.

[Recretos]

It depends on how the stratospheric picture looked like in GEFS last year, and in what lead time did it start showing the response. And lets not forget that the SSW last year was different than what this one might be (if at all), with the later split going very fast throughout a very deep layer and with much more direct interaction with the troposphere (hence the lesser sensitivity to the model top), so the ensembles had a slightly easier job than this year (as you mentioned the top-down or bottom-up). This year GEFS obviously has no dynamics whatsoever in the later stages of the current runs, so if it wont grab onto something in the coming week and will continue with this p.v. stability, than it will be interesting to see how it will evolve the tropospheric patterns compared to the ECM EPS. But of course considering if there will actually be such wave activity as it is being suggested by the mean of GFS op runs for the FI.

As I said, this will be a very good test for GEFS, especially now when I/we can actually see how it looks like in the stratosphere.

 

I hear ya on the ECM vs GFS op U comparison.

Edited January 1, 2014 by Recretos

[Duane S.]

Happy new year everyone!!

 

Catching up having missed all since yesterday's 06z. The usual inconsistencies abound but there does seem to be a trend to pull the very low heights away from our NW and to build heights to the NE. Loving the ECM, full of potential, but this. this blew my mind... !

 

That is some upper strat warming being forecast there on an otherwise uninspiring 06z GFS (tropispherically speaking).

 

Things are starting to get very interesting for the second half of this month.

 

 

EDIT: Doh, meant to post this in the model thread but as it turns out my excitement was reference events forecasted to occur up in the stratosphere 

Edited January 1, 2014 by s4lancia

[Suburban Streamer]

The equatorial zonal winds look to have weakened quite nicely in December. Looks quite likely to be lower than December 2008 but we wait for NOAA to update the figures.   

 

November 2013 December 2013

 

 

December 2008

Edited January 1, 2014 by Suburban Streamer