Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

[aginob]

hi to all

before forget

 

for user recretos

amazing maps and respect again for this work ( posting )

===

sorry for this here off topic post

 

estofex

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 31 Dec 2013 06:00 h UTC to Wed 01 Jan 2014 06:00 h UTC
 

the retracted and exceptionally busy pattern over the N atlantic
continues as another polar vortex approaches E canada

 

in fact this vortex seems to be the most powerful vortex for this winter season
as 500 hpa heights drop to 481 gpdm and 850 hpa temperatures level out at -37°C

despite an increasing ensemble spread in numerous oscillation indices
no serious change in the roaring 2013 - 2014
over the N atlantic is expected in the near future

 

northerrn hemisphere

surface pressure

 

 

 

if you see full size makes a click for the complete zoom

Edited December 31, 2013 by aginob

[weatherjunkie]

I remember saying that I will post some animations when things get interesting. Well, now I present 2 3D animations from the latest 12z GFS. Both present 3 layers. 10mb, 30mb and 100mb. The animation goes from 204h to 384h on a 12h interval. 

The main goal will be to spot the interaction on different levels and possible propagations. In this case I only have one parameter. Both the topography and the colour present geopotential height. I will do topography+temp animations when/if the whole "SSW" process intensifies in the coming days. 

 

First is a side view animation. To explain the perspective: It is like looking from Europe (man that sounds weird ). It is like looking Netweather.tv or meteociel stratosphere maps in 3D.

The interesting thing about it, is the fact that the early shift of "power" from left to right (from Siberia to Canada) is pretty much instant in all layers throughout the strat. while the later height rises are mostly evident on 10mb level and slightly on 30mb, while 100mb seems mainly unaffected. 

The animation repeats 2 times. 

 

GFS_side_animation

 

Second is the front view animation. This is the same perspective as on instantweathermaps.com

So just imagine that you are looking those gph maps in 3D. The interesting thing here, is the intensity by which the vortex gets beaten up at 10mb. You can see fast height raises and around the end, the two waves almost connect over USA. If the animation would go on for a few days, the vortex would be pretty much a goner. 

 

GFS_front_animation

 

I can only imagine how brutal the animations would look for the upper strat. I have to apologise for not making one, because I still haven't found the master grib files for the full GFS output, which has the whole strat included on the complete timescale. I can only find files for individual times, but that would takes ages to process. I guess I will have to wait for the event to go by, and then plot it from reanalysis. 

 

Personally I really like these animations, because it allows me to quickly asses the dynamics and spot some aspects that would otherwise be harder to notice on the classical 2D maps, since you cant see multiple layers at once. 

 

Nevertheless, here are 384h 3D layers of the upper strat. The layers from top to bottom are 1mb-3mb-5mb-10mb-30mb.

The thing that stands out the most, is the wave intesity. In the upper strat, the Atlantic wave is the dominant one, but lower we go, the more dominant the Pacific wave gets, with the Atlantic wave hardly there at 30mb. This is pretty much the answer to the dynamics that Snowking was pointing out earlier, how the vortex gets tiled back with height on a horizontal axis.This pretty much explains it by showing how the stronger Pacific wave acts pretty much as a blocking ridge that prevents the vortex to tilt in general and prevents displacements towards that region. In the upper strat the Atlantic wave is stronger and is pushing the vortex toward west where the Pacific wave is not strong enough to hold in the "pat" position that we were used to see in the past days/weeks. 

 

First aspect is from the Europe side again, while the rest 3 are from the classical "USA in front" perspective, demonstrating the wave intensity with height and the impressive vortex tilt that corresponds with the changing wave intensity with height.  

 

   

 

 

I was thinking of pasting some ensemble output, but I dont want to be a partybreaker. The ensemble output has no dynamics, except for the classical two waves in the pat position. It seems that it just cant grab onto the dynamics, which is mainly the consequence of the low model top. I am counting on the improved ECMWF EPS to do the ensemble job here. 

 

Does someone remember the CFSv2 outputs I presented in November?  2-month lead time forecast. How about this for a verification?  A few days faster than GFS, but still impressive with the general idea in my view, considering it was a mid-November run. (I cant believe I published such low quality processed graphics at that time, but It was as good as I was capable back then).

 

 

 

 

Currently, CFSv2 is quite on terms with GFS, but as usually warmer on the waves and in the vortex core. 

 

 

 

I have noticed that compared to 12/13, we have somehow forgot about the ozone this season. There was some talk about it in the early parts of the season only.

 

  

 

 

So much for now. Bring on the rock'n'roll.

 

Kind regards.

Maps are absolutely amazing. Keep up the good work!

 

Looks like the long range is promising. All eyes on the downwelling possibilities but also to the strength of the warming. It may take another round of warming in late January-February to completely topple this strong PV. Going to be looking at the last week of January for another +MT event out of Asia to knock this off for a while. We'll see how it goes. 

[aginob]

good morning everyone

 

northern hemisphere

animation

 

Edited December 31, 2013 by aginob

[MPG]

Is the warming now within the reliable timeframe and now not a FI forecast? If so the models should be picking up on something soon?

[bluearmy]

Is the warming now within the reliable timeframe and now not a FI forecast? If so the models should be picking up on something soon?

No MPG, still too far off. Until we see it within ecm's charts at day 10, we tend to remain cautious, though if its consistent on gfs by T288 and showing a further effect on the latter frames of the model, then we will probably be happy enough to accept its coming.EDIT: note that the 00z doesn't split the vortex. We are missing some consistency on this re the detail but I suspect tht will come as the timing edges a bit closer than T300+. If it doesn't, bets remain off! Edited December 31, 2013 by bluearmy

[MPG]

No MPG, still too far off. Until we see it within ecm's charts at day 10, we tend to remain cautious, though if its consistent on gfs by T288 and showing a further effect on the latter frames of the model, then we will probably be happy enough to accept its coming.

A pattern change this winter seems very dependent on this warming.

[Recretos]

Is the warming now within the reliable timeframe and now not a FI forecast? If so the models should be picking up on something soon?

 

Funny that you ask, because I was just trying to present the latest ECM32 (or mainly the control run) in this direction.

Now this model has 91 vertical levels with the top at 0.01hpa, so it has the basic conditions required I guess. We are going into deep FI so, keep that in mind at all times. 

 

Up to around the 17th, there is no major change in my view. At least not anything that would be related to the recent GFS scenarios. 

 

 

 

A pattern change this winter seems very dependent on this warming.

 

 

Funny that you mention this, because in about week time, there are new dynamics induced into the tropospheric mean circulation, which might have something to do with the activity above. I personally believe that without some external dynamics from the stratosphere, the tropospheric pattern could not really shift this hard in one week time simply on its own, with no changes to the pre-existing stratosphere conditions. 

 

 

 

And a couple days later, further (and stronger) disruptions of the mean circulation. The AO index of this control run probably tanks at -5 with ease.

 

 

 

 

I am certain that the control run has major stuff going on up in the stratosphere, similar to the CFSv2. But of course the ensemble mean doesnt want to hear anything about new tropospheric pattern dynamics.  But what else do you expect from an average of 50 ensembles at 768h time.

 

 

Regards.

 

Post scriptum: Thanks to MPG for providing a good dialogue with the questions.

[crikey]

got this graph from you guys

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

 

Why is  stratosphere so anomonously COLD?>

Usually a severe cold strat' produces an SSW during peak cold in January

This looks very substantial?

 

http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2013/09/16/stratospheric-warmings-in-the-northern-hemisphere/

Edited December 31, 2013 by crikey

[bluearmy]

Gfs 06z again without a split vortex though it looks in big trouble.

yes recretos, the timing on the ec32 control looks right - I mentioned it on the MOD thread.

[cooling climate]

Fantastic insight from Recretos with top quality posts, brilliant stuff.

This is not the model thread so may be able to get away with mentioning it in here

but I was wondering would there be less data higher up during the next couple of

days due to the time of year.

[karyo]

CC there are plenty of flights today and tomorrow unlike Xmas. I am flying to Brussels tomorrow and I was spoilt for choise when I was looking to book a flight.

Anyway, it seems so far we had the most promising stratoshere forecast on the 18z gfs. The 0z and 6z are not as good as the vortex doesn't split. However, in the 6z the Asian warming moves to Canada and the vortex gets cornered over Siberia.

Karyo

[lorenzo]

EC32 goes blocktastic at the end of the run c25th onwards, however the temp anomaly looks very strange with Russia in particular looking toasty.

 

Meanwhile the wave 2 plot on CPC beginning to look spectacular.

 

[bluearmy]

EC32 goes blocktastic at the end of the run c25th onwards, however the temp anomaly looks very strange with Russia in particular looking toasty.

 

Meanwhile the wave 2 plot on CPC beginning to look spectacular.

time_pres_WAVE2_MEAN_OND_NH_2013.gif

On the control only tony. I wonder If we have to wait for the 15 day ECM ens to get into range (10th jan onwards) to get ens sight of a possible quick response.

[snowking]

GFS plays mr. consistency - not often you could say that about it's tropospheric output at T+300 onwards

 

 

ECMWF backs off a little from yesterdays projections but still very aggressive with continuing Wave 1 and Wave 2 Activity out to day 10, though the day 10 projections from yesterday of splits within the upper vortex did look a little too rushed vs the GFS prognosis.

 

Nevertheless when you see this much warm air entering the core of the vortex:

 

 

With some subtle hints of some downwelling too:

 

 

It begins to look rather in line by day 10 today with the GFS outputs:

 

 

Which of course later goes on to develop the warming shown above down to 10mb.

 

Some patience will still be required but things are still looking positive from a stratospheric standpoint through the second half of this month.

 

SK

[cooling climate]

CC there are plenty of flights today and tomorrow unlike Xmas. I am flying to Brussels tomorrow and I was spoilt for choise when I was looking to book a flight.Anyway, it seems so far we had the most promising stratoshere forecast on the 18z gfs. The 0z and 6z are not as good as the vortex doesn't split. However, in the 6z the Asian warming moves to Canada and the vortex gets cornered over Siberia.Karyo

Cheers, it made me wonder with the warming backing off slightly from the 18z last night

but of course their are likely to be inconsistencies at that range. I would not be at all

surprised though to see the warming strengthen again on this afternoon and this

evenings runs.

[DELETED]

So......are we really heading for a cold end of January into Feb?

[Ruben Amsterdam]

GFS12z is not what I hoped for, unfortunetely. The vortex does get pushed towards the American Continent, though. 

 

 

 

 

But for now: happy 2014!

[sebastiaan1973]

Seems to me, that for the time being, any consistency about the wave is important. It is too early days for details.

 

Happy New Year!

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS12z is not what I hoped for, unfortunetely. The vortex does get pushed towards the American Continent, though. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But for now: happy 2014!

 

 

But its not too bad though!!

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013123112&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

 

Edited December 31, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[karyo]

But its not too bad though!!

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013123112&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

 

It improves at the very end but overall the warming is downgraded! Yesterday's 18z was by far the best and since then we've seen delays and downgrades. 

 

 

Karyo

[feb1991blizzard]

It improves at the very end but overall the warming is downgraded! Yesterday's 18z was by far the best and since then we've seen delays and downgrades. 

 

 

Karyo

 

10mb heights / temps are less susceptible to wild swings but we are still going to get some discrepancies at +300, this isn't going to be a train, this warming may just be a precursor and wobble the plate anyway and although the spinner may just reach it in time, because he is rushed, it may be a real wobbler after he re-spins it and a further warming may completely blow it away!!

[karyo]

10mb heights / temps are less susceptible to wild swings but we are still going to get some discrepancies at +300, this isn't going to be a train, this warming may just be a precursor and wobble the plate anyway and although the spinner may just reach it in time, because he is rushed, it may be a real wobbler after he re-spins it and a further warming may completely blow it away!!

Agreed but the faster it happens the better. I'd rather not have to wait till the very end of winter/early spring to get the result.

There is so much rain and southwesterlies a man can take! 

 

Karyo

[lorenzo]

Interesting blog post from the Capitol Weather Gang on SSWs, contains a couple of good links to previous entries re January 2013.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/31/sudden-stratospheric-warming-could-it-lead-to-a-very-cold-january-in-d-c/

 

With reference to the 12z GFS run - whilst not as stunning as last night the split vortex remains forecast.

 

10mb split 372 16/01/2014

20mb split 360 15/01/2014

30mb split 384 16/01/2014

50mb split 348 15/01/2014

70mb split 336 14/01/2014

100mb split 324 14/01/2014

 

Thought I would share this link I stumbled across this week good explanations of what we are looking for on the Berlin plots.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~jmlheure/Previous_forecasts.html

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Vortex more stretched already on this run, could be a NYE cracker coming up here me thinks.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013123118&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=168

 

 

.

 

 

Warming looks more impressive but vortex looks like regaining strength.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013123118&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=264

 

 

 

A very good stratospheric run though. Best split yet.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013123118&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

 

 

 

Caveat though, I think we had a good run last night only for it to downgrade, an upgrade tonight at all levels though wrt to the temps and distance between the daughter vortices, from 1mb to 30mb.

 

 

 

 

 

I hope I am not getting ahead of myself and stand corrected but although we are not there yet, we are not a million miles away from an SSW on this run, although hard to judge without the zonal wind charts.

Edited December 31, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[lorenzo]

That looks to me like game over for the vortex on tonight pub run, looks mightily impressive on Instant.