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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014


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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Its T288 charts but @ 100mb it starts at T228.  And reaches 20mb @ T288. 

 

sorry wm - it was late !

 

the zonal winds on ecm latter stages not quite as encouraging as yesterdays run.  same probably true of upper strat wave activity.

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Posted
  • Location: Dukinfield 137m ASL
  • Location: Dukinfield 137m ASL

But it is the vortex though yes?

 

Posted Image

 

Gets bigger upto T384

Posted Image

 

Appears at 20mb @ T384

Posted Image

and at 10mb T384

Posted Image

 

Would i be right in saying that its a FI split upto 10mb level???

Edited by Winter Monsoon
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But it is the vortex though yes?

 

 

Would i be right in saying that its a FI split upto 10mb level???

 

Yes, it looks again largely a geopotential response to cross-polar ridging in the troposphere, like was recently forecast but didn't materialise.

More interesting from the same run in FI might be this higher up at 1hPa -

 

post-2779-0-47808700-1385914576_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton, W Mids (123m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Fog, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton, W Mids (123m asl)

Well it looks like the QBO has finally had enough of those westerlies - easterlies starting to creep down again... Posted Image

Posted Image

It's gonna be a long, slippery slide to the bottom though Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Yes, it looks again largely a geopotential response to cross-polar ridging in the troposphere, like was recently forecast but didn't materialise.

More interesting from the same run in FI might be this higher up at 1hPa -

 

Posted ImageNH_TMP_1mb_384.gif

 

still there today and creeping down to 5hpa and beyond. long way off but could be the start of something coming to fruition around xmas. if we got a trop led easterly for the rest of december followed by a colder still strat led pattern to follow, that would be a nice xmas pressie !

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

still there today and creeping down to 5hpa and beyond. long way off but could be the start of something coming to fruition around xmas. if we got a trop led easterly for the rest of december followed by a colder still strat led pattern to follow, that would be a nice xmas pressie !

 

Yeah it's looking like we may see a strong heights over Scandinavia/Siberia which is a bit of a surprise considering the poor snow advance index. Would be shocked if we got an SSW in late December/early Jan.

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Just a quick one in association with some of the last few posts and also with regards to the likes of these charts;

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f240.gif

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf70f216.gif

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131203/00/186/npst30.png

 

...the signal for a building Scandinavia high pressure does seem sound. Also the latest EC32 update overnight, whilst I do admit continues to show a distinct lack of consistency for one specific pattern type in recent weeks, brings about height rises over Scandinavia towards mid-month with some sort of E'ly type. It then builds the high to the N and NW of the UK whilst heights fall to the S and SW of the UK towards and during the Christmas period with more of an NE'ly air mass. Clearly this is just one model run and of late the EC32 has been chopping and changing, but given the unlikely possibility, at least short/medium term, of true height rises to the N and NW of the UK then a Scandinavian high of sorts, as some of the Det models have been showing as well wouldn't be a bad progression.

 

It'll be very interesting now to see if this happens, simply because if it does then the December forecasts from various individuals regarding this month generally being drier than average and potentially slightly colder than average could well come to fruition. All eyes to the E and NE!...

 

Cheers, Matt.

Thanks Matt,

The drum beat for some kind of Eastern block remains.The hope is the block sets up at a northerly enough latitude to allow the deep cold to penetrate the UK but even if the High is situated in the Baltic it can translate to surface cold and that can be bitter depending on the conditions across mainland Europe.

I know some are not keen on 'faux' cold but i'll take cold in any shape or guise in December,nothing worse than SW gales and rain in the festive period.

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl

Well it looks like the QBO has finally had enough of those westerlies - easterlies starting to creep down again... Posted Image

Posted Image

It's gonna be a long, slippery slide to the bottom though Posted Image Posted Image

TBH i thought we had peaked in September after seeing a drop in October but Novembers figure shows that it strengthened slightly in November compared to previous month.  But as you note, a slow reduction is beginning.  Remember in 08/09 the west qbo strengthened again in December

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

November zonal winds:

post-15445-0-27530900-1386074997_thumb.g

 

edit: just to add that looking at the past 4 or 5 days only, demonstrates the weakening nicely. doesnt mean much at this stage though

post-15445-0-26737900-1386092170_thumb.g

 

Edited by Suburban Streamer
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Well it looks like the QBO has finally had enough of those westerlies - easterlies starting to creep down again... Posted Image

Posted Image

It's gonna be a long, slippery slide to the bottom though Posted Image Posted Image

 

That would definitely increase the chances of a major warming happening this winter. I read that major warmings are most likely at the cross over point between QBO phases. Could potentially be a cold old early spring again....

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Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex

Also should mean that come next Winter, the QBO will be in full on easterly mode! Which will be a great bit of the jigsaw for colder weather Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

Also should mean that come next Winter, the QBO will be in full on easterly mode! Which will be a great bit of the jigsaw for colder weather Posted Image

I'm not so sure about that or it actually switching to it's easterly phase this winter, it's quite common to see it flip flop to and forth between phases. I'm sure I read somewhere it will remain in it's westerly phase for the next few years?

Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

I'm not so sure about that or it actually switching to it's easterly phase this winter, it's quite common to see it flip flop to and forth between phases. I'm sure I read somewhere it will remain in it's westerly phase for the next few years?

No it will be easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

I'm not so sure about that or it actually switching to it's easterly phase this winter, it's quite common to see it flip flop to and forth between phases. I'm sure I read somewhere it will remain in it's westerly phase for the next few years?

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasi-periodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. The alternating wind regimes develop at the top of the lower stratosphere and propagate downwards at about 1 km (0.6 mi) per month until they are dissipated at the tropical tropopause. Downward motion of the easterlies is usually more irregular than that of the westerlies. The amplitude of the easterly phase is about twice as strong as that of the westerly phase. At the top of the vertical QBO domain, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found.

The plot below shows the QBO during the 1980s. Very regular.

post-10577-0-89768600-1386087572_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl

I'm not so sure about that or it actually switching to it's easterly phase this winter, it's quite common to see it flip flop to and forth between phases. I'm sure I read somewhere it will remain in it's westerly phase for the next few years?

u can see in this link exactly how long each phase of the qbo has lasted, from 1948-2013

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Figures by NOAA show November was a strong westerly month, so it would take a lot to switch it to Easterly this winter. Even if it were to go easterly in say February, surely there's a lag phase with this?

Edited by Snowy L
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The QBO is solidly west between say 20mb and 70mb. Judging by its pace over the past several months, I'd say any flip to the east based side will occur well after winter. However, there should be weakening of the westerlies starting at the top of the stratosphere and working there way down, so perhaps this affects the PV later on down the road for late winter. I'm on board with those that think long term the PV remains pretty strong. However, the latest forecasts charts hold promise for the more immediate time period regarding some blocking with a brief PV split/elongation. We'll see how it goes...

 

 post-9281-0-41655900-1386122772_thumb.gi

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Well, I was about 60% done (or around there somewhere), when I had some other priorities, thinking I can just go back to it when I will have time. Turned out that my methodology was just as complicated as it was efficient, so I totally forgot the system I was using in just two weeks (yes it was that complicated Posted Image but very efficient, as I said). Later I got a new computer, delaying it even more, so I gave it a shot two weeks ago but I just couldn't figure it out (changed excel versions in between too). I will just try to salvage the finished data, and complete the rest when I create a new methodology for the efficient data extraction from the dataset. Talking about GWO composites of course. MJO is also in plan. 

 
 

 

I'm glad to hear that you haven't abandoned ship with it. I'm sure quite a few of us appreciate the effort that you put into this kind of work and it would be of amazing value to the weather community. I look forward to seeing what you come up with. 

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

ECM has hints of something on the Wave 2 plots, however this dissipates by day 10, still have seen these build day on day also, so worth keeping an eye on.

 

The 30hPa plot below gives a good perspective of the other warming we have been tracking. Whether this is remains in the surf zone ( Ed can clarify if this is correct use of that term) is also worth keeping an eye on. Hints of something down the line perhaps.

 

Posted Image

post-7292-0-31563900-1386318249_thumb.pn

 

Found this on Joe D'Aleo blog last night, a nice depiction of the QBO / Solar base states & the JMA plot of 30hPa temps

post-7292-0-45111200-1386318347_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-01548600-1386318357_thumb.gi

 

With such a concentrated vortex can't hep thinking we need that Asian MT event, frictional torques not supportive, a shift in GLAAM required.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltauf.90day.gif

 

 

A case of patiently observing just now.

 

post-7292-0-61716600-1386318038_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Yes i guess a number of us are scanning the wave forecasts daily hoping for something significant Tony.

We seem to be getting continual activity but not enough to cause major displacement or disruption just yet.The pv is like a boxer who keeps rolling with the punches.

 

The vortex continues to look strong with the cooling on target.

post-2026-0-75847800-1386319960_thumb.gi

 

It's no surprise to see T240hrs forecasts like this at the 100hPa level.

post-2026-0-91937800-1386319937_thumb.gipost-2026-0-51449800-1386319946_thumb.gi

 

The only ridging in the pattern is just in the wrong place for cold at present encouraging that Euro block seen on current 500hPa modeling.

Edited by phil nw.
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