South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 11/10/13 ------------>

[Jan_Bromley]

Hi Jan,

 

Hope you're ok, how is it there down on the Nursery slopes? 

 

Tom.

 

Hi Tom,

 

Very well thanks. Just gutted that this mild and rainy weather means yet more grass cutting. Can I have Eric back please?

Evening all, and happy birthday Steve C and Tom, hope you have had a lovely day!

I'm currently feeling like crap and am off work - not looking too good for tomorrow either, especially now mini raven has taken a bucket to her bedside tonight!

Weather has been pretty non-script today - dry and mild.

 

Hi Leanne,

 

I hope that you and your daughter feel better soon x

[john pike]

Tropical Storm LORENZO

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/203649.shtml?basin?large#contents

 

here we go again

[Bluebreezer54]

16.9c at 9.30pm this late in October is worthy of a mention I think. Temperatures like that wouldn't look out of place in summer.

Greetings from the tropical zone of North West London. The temperature has been slowly rising since 7pm and has now reached a positively balmy 17.9c at midnight. Club Tropicana anyone ?  

[EJA]

Thanks John : )

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Happy birthday for steve and Tom yesterday sorry I didnt mention it yesterday was tied up at work

On another note.. Think we need to start either investing in a large boat (enough to fit us all in and our families) or better a cruise ship... With of course plenty of booze and food with entertainment.. As the onslaught of rain over the next week 2 weeks looks crap

[Coast]

Very mild, almost warm overnight with temps not dropping below 16.6°C in Eastbourne:

 

 

Across the region it's much the same:

 

 

BBC TV were saying this morning that the night time temperature record for October is 17.8°C so some places are knocking on the door of that I imagine.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Coast

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all from a very warm at wet MK - I don't ever remember waking up hot in bed in October before, bedroom window was open as well !

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Double it would still be good.

Hope the head's OK?  Didn't celebrate too much?

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning all,

 

Rain on waking this morning, although east of the region dry. More rain expected to track NE across the region through the day, which could be quite heavy at times. Rain eventually clearing away eastwards but some heavy, poss. thundery showers in the extreme south of our region overnight.

Bit of a respite from rainfall overnight Weds into Thurs, before more rain, some heavy tracks NE, Thurs/Fri.

 

Saturday looks to be slightly the better of the weekend days, at the moment, although some rain likely on both.

 

Tom.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Kentish CZ

[Steve C]

[in reply to NorthNorfolkWeather]

 

The head's fine thanks, although I did worry a bit when I saw your post - I thought I might have posted a load of nonsense last night.

 

Definitely too many drinks, so I won't drive until this afternoon. One of the pub stalwarts died  year ago yesterday, so a lot of people turned up late to celebrate his life and I ended up staying later than I might have otherwise.

 

Bright here this morning, with bits of sunshine.

 

I've just looked at the models, regarding the potential storm next week (Monday in particular) and ECM has dropped the idea, although the weather pattern is very disturbed. GEM still has it, as does GFS, although GFS has it as a filling feature by the time it's here. Again GFS is showing a very disturbed pattern.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Steve C

[Guest bjaykent]

Morning all, driving to the station at 6am this morning 16c felt like a summer morning, the only giveaway was that it was dark. Early brightness has gone but just had the faintest of rainbows before the sun disappeared. My garden is responding to this mild weather, almost starting to look like summer again Dahlias, Cosmos and Rudbeckia  are amazing at the moment. Looks like the wind is more likely to finish them off rather than any cold.

 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

In a Irish accent..

 

"could be a little windy there boys next week"

 

[RUSH]

morning alllllllllllll

 

wow its mild out there went out for a short jog started sweating in seconds,got me by suripse even with the drizzel,gray wet,the odd guest of wind(nuthing to do with me) and sum rain,

 

sound like you had a good night last night steve nice 1,HAPPY BRITHDAY  TOM 

[Mark Neal.]

Good morning. Heavy rain for much of the early hours and this morning though has become patchier now. A mild 16.1c though

[fulham snow]

Morning all from a very warm at wet MK - I don't ever remember waking up hot in bed in October before, bedroom window was open as well !

Put thick duvet on now changed back to thin duvet after waking up sweeting

[Methuselah]

Already up to 19.4...Cloud clearing to the north.

[Jan_Bromley]

Good morning,

 

Rain, rain rain again.

 

Yes BJK, my garden is growing again, nature is a wee bit confused I think. It's bypassed winter and thinks its spring!

 

Have a dry day everyone...if you can

[MP-R]

This temperature with drizzle is just awful - need a coat to stay dry but may as well not bother as wet with sweat anyway after walking for 5-10 minutes. Pattern change please!

[Methuselah]

Now, it's getting very black from the west,19.9...

[Coast]

 

 

London & South East England: severe weather warnings

Yellow Warning of Rain

22 Oct 2013, 11:00

 

Issued at - 22 Oct 2013, 11:25

Valid from - 22 Oct 2013, 11:00

Valid to - 23 Oct 2013, 06:00

 

Further heavy showers are likely through the rest of Tuesday and particularly overnight into Wednesday, when organised bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms will move northeastwards, accompanied by squally winds. The public should be aware of the risk of disruption, mainly due to localised flooding, but also where squally winds occur. 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html

[Snowangel-MK]

At last a voice of reason against the sensationalist reporting once again

By Simon Keeling in Wombourne, Staffs 09:00hrs 22/10/2013

So here we go again!

Apparently the 'Storm of the Century' is on the way next week. Well, that's in the universe in which the publicity seeking individuals quoted by the Daily Express reside.

And that means another round of unnecessary worry for those for whom severe weather is no joke.

Now, when you hear people trotting out this nonsense I'd like you to be able to go back with the facts.

And they are that the jet stream is over the country at the moment and will be next week too. At this time of year the contrast between cold air to the north and warm air the the south is high. The jet stream helps these two areas of air mix.

Low pressure zones form along the jet stream and some of these can be deep bringing heavy rain and strong winds.

It's a familiar pattern of weather that occurs every autumn.

Models are currently not in agreement about when or where the low pressure systems will form. What can be said is that there is the risk of one of these systems bringing winds over over 70mph (enough to strip the remaining leaves off the trees, break a few branches and perhaps test those weaker fence panels).

There will be some heavy rain around too, and giving the amount of rain that has fallen recently, and the chance of drains getting block by leaf litter, there could be some localised flooding in places.

So, normal autumnal weather it is, 'storm of the century' it ain't!

[Snowangel-MK]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html

Yellow Warning of Rain for London & South East England :Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Portsmouth, West Sussex, East Sussex, Southampton, Brighton and Hove, Kent, Surrey, Bracknell Forest, Reading, West Berkshire, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham & Medway

[VillagePlank]

A trough develops in front of a cold front and edges slowly east,

 

 

This is characterised by some (very) dry air high aloft moving with the front,

 

 

A higher quantity of rain will fall over Southern England (say M4 south) as CAPE develops through daytime heating and creates a just-about convective environment

 

 

In addition to that deep-layer shear (0-6km) is around of some 20 m/s (that's about 44mph!) which should override the lack of other convective parameters (marginal LI, for instance)

 

 

A very interesting afternoon for SE weather watchers to come, I reckon. It really is a case of will it/won't it! Almost certainly going to be wet for everyone, and I would have drawn the warning line a little bit more North than the MetO: I am expecting to hear/see thunderstorms this evening after dark even if they might be (a long way) to my south.

 

Have fun

 

[VillagePlank]

Apparently the 'Storm of the Century' is on the way next week.

 

I guess he's talking about this bad boy,

 

 

However, looking at GEFS, the pressure range is quite large implying that computing modelling is nowhere near got this one nailed on, this is a range of 969hPa to 1008hPa  which is quite a big difference,

 

 

Indeed, looking the GFS ensemble plot, it doesn't even develop over us at all, it bifurcates and develops to our NNE,

 

 

And just to further put a nail in this, a look of the spaghetti plot (20 GFS ensemble runs overlaid)

 

 

Just about says it all!!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Now, it's getting very black from the west,19.9...

Only 17.1 here, miserable mind you, rain less heavy than it was, but still there