scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[LomondSnowstorm]

Both the ECM and the GFS are agreed on sub -10C uppers (actually -13C uppers for the northern Highlands where the convection will have to develop) at Day 7. For a northerly that's about as good as it gets frankly and, while it might get watered down, usually one of the models would have started to water down the cold pool by this stage whereas both seem determined at the moment to beef it up. Still 7 days to go but if the ECM in particular verified we'd be looking at widespread lowland snowfall, widespread ice days and some proper 6 inches + snowfalls north of the Grampians, not to mention Shetland which would take an absolute pasting.

I'll dig out some examples of northerlies with -12C in the mix (I think the last one was maybe December 18th 2010) but they are usually accompanied by very significant snow for Scotland so it's worth keeping an eye on, especially this early in winter with still relatively high SSTs

[Ravelin]

Morning all. Blitzen, nice to see the GFS back to showing what we want after last nights 'wobble', but it's still that far out I'm sure there's wobbles still to come and I'm trying to keep my excitement levels under control for now.

 

In Kemnay this morning there's definitely a cooler feel to the weather again with a temperature of 3C at 8am, combined with a stiff breeze. Hardly a cloud to be found in the sky at the moment though, but there's obviously been a bit of rain overnight as all the surfaces are wet.

 

That Lidl weather station is tempting, but there's one thing I can't get my head around. The Anemometer is looks as if it's designed to be wall mounted, but if so isn't it's position then going to seriously compromise it's ability to provide accurate readings i.e it'll be in the lee of the wall? Obviously what you need is it up high and away from too many buildings, which is very difficult to achieve for most houses.

[jon_d1983]

Both the ECM and the GFS are agreed on sub -10C uppers (actually -13C uppers for the northern Highlands where the convection will have to develop) at Day 7. For a northerly that's about as good as it gets frankly and, while it might get watered down, usually one of the models would have started to water down the cold pool by this stage whereas both seem determined at the moment to beef it up. Still 7 days to go but if the ECM in particular verified we'd be looking at widespread lowland snowfall, widespread ice days and some proper 6 inches + snowfalls north of the Grampians, not to mention Shetland which would take an absolute pasting. I'll dig out some examples of northerlies with -12C in the mix (I think the last one was maybe December 18th 2010) but they are usually accompanied by very significant snow for Scotland so it's worth keeping an eye on, especially this early in winter with still relatively high SSTs

Looks like Aberdeen and the shire will be hit or miss if this comes off. Wanting to try the new 4x4 in the snow soon :-)

[Ravelin]

***Rant Mode On****

Christ, some people on the Model Thread need to lower their expectations. It's not even December yet and a potential few days of cold weather, possibly even very cold, isn't enough for them. "It's not going to snow", "it's only going to be a cold snap", "the vortex is too strong", "we've always got January"..blah, blah, blah. Only ice floes and polar bears digging through their garbage would keep some people happy.

***Rant Mode Off***

 

Sorry, I promise my normal cheery service will now be resumed.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looks like Aberdeen and the shire will be hit or miss if this comes off. Wanting to try the new 4x4 in the snow soon :-)

If it comes off I'd say it's likely to be pretty much a direct hit, particularly if it lasts more than 24 hours like the ECM does. We'd be talking about an early March 2006 type event with the ECM, although still a long way to go it must be said Edited November 29, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[jon_d1983]

If it comes off I'd say it's likely to be pretty much a direct hit, particularly if it lasts more than 24 hours like the ECM does. We'd be talking about an early March 2006 type event with the ECM, although still a long way to go it must be said

 

That could be rather interesting if a march 06 senario happened! im definetly not going clubbing next week......ended up in a taxi in 2006 which crashed buckeld his wheel under car and then walked the last 3 miles home in the snow not easy when you have had a few shandys

[Highland Snow]

Minimum last night +4.1C with a heavy rain burst at 04.00-04.15 (max. rate at 04.07 was12.88mm/hr) giving 2.0mm. Chilly and sunny just now at +4.7C.

[Highland Snow]

That Lidl weather station is tempting, but there's one thing I can't get my head around. The Anemometer is looks as if it's designed to be wall mounted, but if so isn't it's position then going to seriously compromise it's ability to provide accurate readings i.e it'll be in the lee of the wall? Obviously what you need is it up high and away from too many buildings, which is very difficult to achieve for most houses.

 

Anemometers are a problem generally Ravelin. Even on my Davis Vantage Pro II with FARS the anemometer is at 2m height so I never refer to what it records as it is basically meaningless and we are surrounded by other houses and trees so even wind direction is problematic due to eddys and vortices. Wind is a function of height and free flow so unless you can achieve and define that don't fret.

 

For precipitation and temperature/dew point it should be fine and of good quality as I suspect it will be German manufactured.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Anemometers are a problem generally Ravelin. Even on my Davis Vantage Pro II with FARS the anemometer is at 2m height so I never refer to what it records as it is basically meaningless and we are surrounded by other houses and trees so even wind direction is problematic due to eddys and vortices. Wind is a function of height and free flow so unless you can achieve and define that don't fret.

 

For precipitation and temperature/dew point it should be fine and of good quality as I suspect it will be German manufactured.

Mine's the same, very sheltered on three sides which means that even in the worst storms gusts rarely exceed 25mph so it's only any use in a northerly. I think the highest gust it recorded was around 80mph during the late March 2010 winter storm.

[Snowlover2]

That could be rather interesting if a march 06 senario happened! im definetly not going clubbing next week......ended up in a taxi in 2006 which crashed buckeld his wheel under car and then walked the last 3 miles home in the snow not easy when you have had a few shandys

Im travelling from Fife to Aberdeen next sat for a night out lol. Last time i was up there, last yr, we came out a club at 3am and it was pelting with snow!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

The 6Z comes up with yet another solution, phasing a deep Atlantic low with the main trough early doors to delay but also prolong the onset of the cold and adds in a bonus shortwave for good luck:

Even manages to bring in an easterly in low res:

Possibly the wintriest run to date with some deep and quite prolonged cold.

[Ravelin]

Anemometers are a problem generally Ravelin. Even on my Davis Vantage Pro II with FARS the anemometer is at 2m height so I never refer to what it records as it is basically meaningless and we are surrounded by other houses and trees so even wind direction is problematic due to eddys and vortices. Wind is a function of height and free flow so unless you can achieve and define that don't fret.

 

For precipitation and temperature/dew point it should be fine and of good quality as I suspect it will be German manufactured.

That's what I suspected.

 

From a quick look at the Manual which I found online (http://www.lidl-service.com/static/61250712/92027_DE_FR_NL.pdf), which is in several languages but not English, it seems the outside temperature sensor etc is built into the anemometer assembly. Now I could theoretically get that raised above the height of the roof, but not sure I fancy having to go up there every 90 days to replace the 2 x AA batteries.

[blitzen]

***Rant Mode On****

Christ, some people on the Model Thread need to lower their expectations. It's not even December yet and a potential few days of cold weather, possibly even very cold, isn't enough for them. "It's not going to snow", "it's only going to be a cold snap", "the vortex is too strong", "we've always got January"..blah, blah, blah. Only ice floes and polar bears digging through their garbage would keep some people happy.

***Rant Mode Off***

 

 

Sorry, I promise my normal cheery service will now be resumed.

Told yah!

[Summer Sun]

Early indications from the met office suggest Scotland is on course for its sunniest November in 84 years

[mistyqueen]

Afternoon Peeps! A wee bit blowy up here today, interspersed with a wee touch o'sun. Charts looking good for next weekend, but I won't hold my breath. A lot can happen bertween now and then, and not all of it good!

 

Re anemometers. I have the same problem. Mine is attached to a post and is fairly low down, so readings probably not that accurate. The OH has promised he will attach it to a chimney stack sometime....

[Colsuth]

Mine's the same, very sheltered on three sides which means that even in the worst storms gusts rarely exceed 25mph so it's only any use in a northerly. I think the highest gust it recorded was around 80mph during the late March 2010 winter storm.

 

I agree. Put up a maplin weather station a couple of days ago.  seems to be working ok and everything matching my nearest weather station (Kinloss) except the wind. I'm reading 18mph while Kinloss is saying 28mph with 41mph gusts

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM wasn't too bad this morning with some good cold uppers over us from 168 onwards and i'm sure some snow chances as well

 

168

 

 

192

 

 

216

 

 

now the ECM wouldn't have been too far away from being a better run if in the 192 image the 2 lows to the west of Greenland could line up better then we might have been in with a chance of keeping heights around Greenland but it went on to sink the high so not this time around but if this is the kind of evolution we will see then maybe something to keep an eye out for but as we know this will probably change.

 

 

 

now if we move to the ensembles the OP run was down amongst the coldest of the runs for London and as we see there is quite a cluster down there so the evolution of the OP might not be too far off what the ensembles are seeing as well and obviously its not stuck on as there are warmer members but at this point we stand a better chance of cold than warm due to the clustering

 

 

still plenty of model watching over the next few days to see how this pattern evolves fully but at this point we are looking quite good for a northerly but again caution as we all now just how fickle the models can be and it may all change on the 12z. 

Edited November 29, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

GFS 12z looks to bring in the cold uppers and snow at 156hr on a pretty deep low

 

PRESSURE

 

 

850's

 

 

PPN

 

 

GFS 12z also has the 2 lows west of Greenland which might be one to watch as remember a post that I did a few days back that showed 2 lows west of Greenland so this is something that was dropped and seems to be back now so will watch to see how this develops

 

[Ravelin]

Well the GFS 12z looks like a pretty similar outcome to me for the end of next week. I think Misty Queen may have to think about throwing some extra straps over her house an tying it down as it looks quite windy out west on that run.

 

Edit - And there go the usual people who can't seem to accept anything other than a mini ice age (or enjoy pointing out that it's only a "cold snap").

Edited November 29, 2013 by Ravelin

[blitzen]

Well I wonder how this saga will play out? Certainly fab charts from the ECM.   Not dusting off the sledge yet though. (However, I might put the tree up!) 

Edited November 29, 2013 by Blitzen

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Mu ha ha!

 

[blitzen]

It's close, but defo not time to rev up your snowblower yet

 

Edit: I'm nervous about this...in a good way. It's nice to be nervous about something so relatively meaningless

PLEASE.....Don't mention the snowblower! It's scuppered every bloody winter since we bought it! 

[Nick L]

I see you guys are long overdue a new thread! Hold fire on posts for a minute

 

New thread here:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78624-scotland-regional-discussion-29112013/

Edited November 29, 2013 by Nick L