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Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    As blitzen indicates it is calm over there (for now) ECM wants to continue theme of northern blocking right through to T240 and therefore predictions of BOOM charts to appear over next 24 hrs....anyway off for a busy Saturday so will check in later to see how it's looking....that's here not the MT..... I've done my bit it's someone else's turn

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

    Morning all! It's gey breezy up here the noo, nae rain though, which can only be a good thing. It's so mild though, I was flinging the duvet off last night in an effort to cool down to a reasonable temperature! My in-built, middle aged central heating system was working overtime! I'm sure there are some ladies of a certain age on here who will understand what I mean! Anyhoo, it won't be mild for long and we are off tae Inversneck tomorrow to do the dreaded Xmas shopping. By then end of day tomorrow I reckon we will both be Posted Image Posted Image . I fully expect to be driving home through six foot drifts on Monday afternoon and Skye will be cut off for weeks. We will all have to go on starvation diets as our food will run out and the Red Cross will have to drop food parcels to all of the Highlands. ( Please remember we don't do white bread or microwave meals and prefer red wine to white. A bottle of Grouse wouldn't go amiss....for medicinal purposes only, you understand. Don't forget some cat food either! ) Or maybe we'll just have the merest dusting on the mountain tops. Those who have a better idea of where and how much snow will fall....answers on a postcard please!

     

    PS...I refuse to go into the Model Thread. Looks like the toys are half way to Greenland by now!Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    Anyone else fancy splitting our regional thread into two? One for serious model stuff, the other for the rest of us...?  Just that sometimes I want to see what the weather's up to, other times I just want to share the craic....

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    If you add the images side by side rather than heading vertically down the page, they open and when open the arrow key appears to allow you to move onto the next image.

     

     

    yeah that's how I usually do my posts I was meaning have a slide show in the one image so it flicks through without having to touch any keys once its there like if you click to open the image and it automatically runs through them itself?

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    just trying something here to see if it works

     

    post-18233-0-52080000-1384608092_thumb.gpost-18233-0-16011700-1384608093_thumb.gpost-18233-0-05414600-1384608094_thumb.gpost-18233-0-68604300-1384608094_thumb.gpost-18233-0-41183000-1384608095_thumb.gpost-18233-0-11597300-1384608096_thumb.gpost-18233-0-87011000-1384608096_thumb.gpost-18233-0-61520900-1384608097_thumb.gpost-18233-0-40707200-1384608098_thumb.g

     

    don't think it will work but on plus point I have found out how to upload several images at once and that will do me well in the future didn't know you could upload loads of images in one go.

     

    anyway this is the last 9 ensembles from the ECM for comparison if anyone is interested

     

    should probably explain as well that I was wanting to find out how to post slide shows as was going to make up 09 and 10 slide shows of the cold for posting for us to have a look at

    Edited by Buriedundersnow
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Anyone else fancy splitting our regional thread into two? One for serious model stuff, the other for the rest of us...?  Just that sometimes I want to see what the weather's up to, other times I just want to share the craic....

     

    don't know if we would be able to do that they have talked about it in other threads and nothing happens

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    post-18233-0-12542100-1384610704_thumb.p

     

    bbbbrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!  Posted Image

     

    continent cooling aswell

     

    norm temps

     

    post-18233-0-82232900-1384610720_thumb.p

     

    forecast temps

     

    post-18233-0-35183100-1384610721_thumb.p

     

    could still do with western Russia cooling down more though

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    NASA HIGH RES has us under two pushes of cold air from the north in the next 5 days

     

    PRESSURE

     

    post-18233-0-90429700-1384613255_thumb.ppost-18233-0-61720000-1384613256_thumb.ppost-18233-0-28440000-1384613257_thumb.ppost-18233-0-16557400-1384613258_thumb.ppost-18233-0-87926500-1384613258_thumb.ppost-18233-0-57534400-1384613259_thumb.ppost-18233-0-18064400-1384613260_thumb.ppost-18233-0-70484900-1384613260_thumb.ppost-18233-0-30705100-1384613277_thumb.ppost-18233-0-99006900-1384613277_thumb.ppost-18233-0-71043100-1384613278_thumb.ppost-18233-0-49667500-1384613279_thumb.ppost-18233-0-51874600-1384613280_thumb.p

     

    850's

     

    post-18233-0-19344400-1384613281_thumb.ppost-18233-0-75768300-1384613281_thumb.ppost-18233-0-36300400-1384613282_thumb.ppost-18233-0-99681400-1384613302_thumb.ppost-18233-0-76074100-1384613303_thumb.ppost-18233-0-49530300-1384613304_thumb.ppost-18233-0-65327000-1384613305_thumb.ppost-18233-0-33142700-1384613306_thumb.ppost-18233-0-95412400-1384613306_thumb.ppost-18233-0-72054200-1384613307_thumb.ppost-18233-0-46075000-1384613308_thumb.ppost-18233-0-61052600-1384613309_thumb.ppost-18233-0-68898500-1384613310_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    even has some quite good looking snow chances in 4 days

     

    post-18233-0-28476600-1384613859_thumb.ppost-18233-0-14174600-1384613860_thumb.ppost-18233-0-85719700-1384613860_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    Lovely. Looks like I'm going to get my wish BUS.  According to John Holmes in the model thread,  the cold air looks like hanging around through the beginning of December which should help things along a lot! Europe too!

    Edited by Blitzen
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    ECM showing similar to the NASA with this set up though its going to be if we can get the uppers etc right and obviously what makes it over the hills.

     

    will see what develops closer to the timeframe

     

    post-18233-0-56582900-1384615442_thumb.ppost-18233-0-19297000-1384615443_thumb.ppost-18233-0-88364000-1384615443_thumb.p

    Edited by Buriedundersnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    Got an hour or so to kill before I start tea so........I'm going in folks!   Wonder if they will get this?:

     

    post-1989-0-21616500-1384615555_thumb.jp

     

    or this?:

     

    post-1989-0-63294900-1384615612.jpg

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Blitzen
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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    I'll do an update post the 12Zs but we have a rather interesting situation on Tuesday night into Wednesday with the Atlantic trying to push in against our newly established cold pool. What this will bring and whether cold uppers will return behind it is very much up in the air at the moment so I'm hoping we get some clarity but depending on the timing that's where the major snow risk for most central areas will come into play. However, as Lorenzo pointed out we do have some troughs in the flow too which could also deliver, particularly early on Tuesday as the cold air really digs in. One of the most complex northerly 'toppler' setups I've ever seen and somewhat reminiscent of January last year when the cold couldn't decide whether it was coming or going. At the surface of course it looks like remaining cold for a long time to come but as ever snowfall is a different kettle of fish, so as ever it's going to come down to nowcasting. A few hints on what to remember:

    NMM is decent with precipitation but tends to overestimate coastal modification like its parent model the GFS

    NAE is sketchier all round (does anyone have the link to that site which shows what appears to be the UKV model?) but useful for things like the 950hpas

    yr.no is a class act and shows the ECM in high resolution, but wundermap also shows something which appears to be a higher resolution version of the ECM

    This site gives you the global NMM which is, I believe, a less UK specialised version of Netweather's NMM, although the two often have quite different outputs http://www.meteocenter.eu/WRF-forecast/NW/North-West-Europe.html

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    thought I would add these in heres yestardays video from gavsweathervids and a few good model updates for next month

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1M5hUYF_aNw#t=597

     

    and todays week ahead forecast

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLOgSaFlqX0#t=408

     

    sorry for going a bit mental Posted Image with the posts today I just cant help myself when theres a chance of COLD and SNOW in the forecasts Posted Image Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    cheers LS I had to get a new computer and lost all my favourites and couldn't find that site again Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    right usually not looking at GFS too much as due to last year don't rate it too highly but it has gave us a peek at what we will need if we see heights push toward Scandinavia and even though it doesn't come off right in the run it would have potential if this is the road we went down so I have done a little paint

     

    first look toward the black arrow to the bottom right and notice we have a LP that stops the highs from linking up(we want to see this) as you can then see from the red arrows this allows the cold air into western Russia and Europe which would cool things down considerably.

     

    the rest is what I would like to see after with the yellow arrow on the low pressure over Greenland which we would want to ride over the high taking the PV with it sinking it into Europe and western Russia and hopefully this would then open up Greenland for either high pressure to get an attempt at moving into Greenland or to our north.

     

    post-18233-0-11109500-1384620573_thumb.p

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    UKMO comes out with an utter peach of a run:

    Posted Image

     

    Posted Image

    Posted Image

    At +120 we're looking at uppers still at around -8C so the risk of snowfall, plus the shortwave at circa +84 (Tuesday night) is significantly smaller, further south and better positioned which would significantly reduce the warm sector in extent and would give an increased risk of snowfall. Very much looking forward to the fax charts tonight and I'll take a closer look at the NMM 6 (the very high res NMM) this evening once Monday afternoon comes into play.

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    BUS no apologies mate you post as much as you like....especially like the fact your getting all LS with using paint on the charts.....really helps to illustrate explanations!!

     

    nearly 3 hrs since blitzy went over the front line....somebody send the marines into get her

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    tension in MT as ECM rolls out.... uppers still look ok TuesdayPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

    Another fine very windy day with a high of 10c.Putting electric fences up in the neep field all day in readiness for cows coming in. Suffering a bit of facial wind burn tonight but keen to get outside jobs wrapped up this weekend in good weather as walking in dusty fields beats walking on mud or ice.

    Hearing about a few private water supplies running dry in this area so a dry winter is not needed

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    some say ECM like GFS and UKMO is on its own.....others say it is more like the UKMO....... in other words all is normal in the MT

     

    a nice easterly into the cold pooling off to the east here would be potentially tasty Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

     

     

    nearly 3 hrs since blitzy went over the front line....somebody send the marines into get her

    I survived!.....So much so that I've gone in for more! Depending on the ECM,  I may not get out alive this time though!

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