scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[LomondSnowstorm]

Now this is where it gets interesting - Ian F posted on the MT that the UKMO are going with a largely unmodified UKMO for what is now +84 (ie the +96 Fax chart).

 

If the Chief forecaster is correct then things are going to get pretty interesting for most of us Tuesday night into Wednesday and onwards...

[Hairy Celt]

Bloody hell you lot are busy tonight!

 

Just to lighten it up a tad... was yesterday at dusk on the way home. half an hour later it would have been multi-coloured spectacular but by then I was in the supermarket checkout queue and the other folk would have thought it a bit odd if I'd started taking pix then...

 

Really mild one today, sounds like the last for a while though.  Snow for here looks unlikely in the short term I'd say but you never know... gosh it's only mid-November!

[Buriedundersnow]

Now this is where it gets interesting - Ian F posted on the MT that the UKMO are going with a largely unmodified UKMO for what is now +84 (ie the +96 Fax chart).

 

If the Chief forecaster is correct then things are going to get pretty interesting for most of us Tuesday night into Wednesday and onwards...

 

 

would be fantastic if they were right that chart looks very interesting indeed

 

NASA model 12z run still showing some snow chances aswell

 

[edo]

Very interesting indeed looking fwd to fax charts tomorrow...interesting to see little modification in the latest given what fergie said before..... Will the others come inboard with UKMO tomorrow??? Lets hope so

Just watched Jack Reacher and was a decent film...gave my dearest 2 hours of my time away from weather seen as it's her birthday weekend

[Buriedundersnow]

well I have earlier well beat now

 

162,945% and 107,700% chance of snow

 

 

GEFS PUB RUN on the drink and well on its way to cuckoo land

 

          

 

       

Very interesting indeed looking fwd to fax charts tomorrow...interesting to see little modification in the latest given what fergie said before..... Will the others come inboard with UKMO tomorrow??? Lets hope so

Just watched Jack Reacher and was a decent film...gave my dearest 2 hours of my time away from weather seen as it's her birthday weekend

 

only 2 hours

Edited November 17, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

Now this is where it gets interesting - Ian F posted on the MT that the UKMO are going with a largely unmodified UKMO for what is now +84 (ie the +96 Fax chart).

 

If the Chief forecaster is correct then things are going to get pretty interesting for most of us Tuesday night into Wednesday and onwards...

 

^^^ LS's original post the box seems to have gone away.

 

 

 

the ECM 12z has a developing front moving through with the developing LP system so we may see some snow on that and if the LP system is indeed further to the west like on the fax chart posted by LS above then the hook round at the top of the LP is possibly what we might see working down the east coast on the back end of it.

 

 

things definitely getting interesting now for the coming days and looks like we might be radar watching, curtain twitching, lamppost watching before winter has even started.

Edited November 17, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

You're joking? Is it the 17th as well for Mrs edodfc?

 

at least u gave the other half more than 2 hours

[Buriedundersnow]

I'm just in from a night out at Mrs Catch's best friend's house for Mrs Catch's 30th, I saw this FAX chart and was going to post it up until beaten to it by you LS.

 

All I can say is:

 

C'MON!!!!!!

 

The ECM shows a similar feature...bring it on!!! It would be a slushy sleety rainy snowy mess but who cares, it'll be fun finding out who gets snow and who doesn't from that little beauty

 

well I know I will be the first of any to not get anything just usual fare about here

[Cheggers]

well I know I will be the first of any to not get anything just usual fare about here

All being well BFT would have been out and drained the fuel on the snaw shield.

 

Now the Express are going too far.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/443462/Winter-2013-expected-to-be-worst-since-1947-with-heavy-and-persistent-snow-forecast-for-UK

[edo]

You're joking? Is it the 17th as well for Mrs edodfc?

Yes it tis..... Are we livin is some kind of parallel regional universe?

[edo]

The express lol......I was busy trying to explain the complexities of long term forecasting to my colleagues last week who courtesy of the express believed the day after tomorrow was impending reality!! Scarily people do actually believe what they read

[Cheggers]

The express lol......I was busy trying to explain the complexities of long term forecasting to my colleagues last week who courtesy of the express believed the day after tomorrow was impending reality!! Scarily people do actually believe what they read

Day after tomorrow is the headline for the Daily Fail tomorrow, and The Sun will lead with Armageddon. 

Forgot to say, stunning clear crisp frosty morning here.

[edo]

Lol and of course one is bound to lead with fuel shortages likely....similarly crisp sunny day here with a light touch of frost

[edo]

Short summary of MT is UKMO slightly backtracking with ECM upgrading and GFS binned because of its flattening of the pattern.....from what I can see we remain in line for a significant November cold snap with potential still there for snow at times and no real clue beyond Wednesday exactly what's gonna happen although probably staying fairly cold for us but perhaps cold and dry....I await someone knowledgeable and sensible from here to tell us where we stand which I will guess is not bad

[Cheggers]

Short summary of MT is UKMO slightly backtracking with ECM upgrading and GFS binned because of its flattening of the pattern.....from what I can see we remain in line for a significant November cold snap with potential still there for snow at times and no real clue beyond Wednesday exactly what's gonna happen although probably staying fairly cold for us but perhaps cold and dry....I await someone knowledgeable and sensible from here to tell us where we stand which I will guess is not bad

Hope this scene gets repeated then... oor street 1st Dec 2010

[blitzen]

Morning all. Lovely crisp, cold morning with a slight frost and long may it continue! Have included a breakfast read on Kasim's thoughts for those interested. His latest winter predictions are due out this evening so will post when they become available.

 

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/ukcoldcoolsnowspelldetailedoutlookisthewhitestuffstillcominglatenovember2013/

[Hairy Celt]

Morning peeps, nice and clear and crisp here too, trust me to go for a long lie tho ...

 

We too have a birthday this weekend, not 'er, one of the young ones.  Off out soon for a winter recce.  He he.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Slightly less 'end of the world' take on it from the herald.

 

http://archive.is/U0dkl

 

Cold snap on the way

 

Homes in northern Scotland will be the first battered by freezing temperatures as mercury plummets below the seasonal average, forecasters have warned.

[Buriedundersnow]

Short summary of MT is UKMO slightly backtracking with ECM upgrading and GFS binned because of its flattening of the pattern.....from what I can see we remain in line for a significant November cold snap with potential still there for snow at times and no real clue beyond Wednesday exactly what's gonna happen although probably staying fairly cold for us but perhaps cold and dry....I await someone knowledgeable and sensible from here to tell us where we stand which I will guess is not bad

 

 

^^^EDODFC original post again the box has disappeared on me

 

 

we are defo in a slightly worse position than last night where we had the UKMO and ECM mean showing some good charts where as now the ECM mean is looking to sink the high toward the end and the UKMO has taken away the easterly from lastnight so not all doom and gloom they could change back but its gonna be a waiting game for now till the 12z's come out as we all know one set of runs mean nothing in these circumstances and it could all change back later.

 

but as we stand slight downgrades long term I will leave the early snow prospects for LS or LORENZO to answer as they more clued up with that.

 

ECM mean

 

 

notice the heights trying to sink last night they were to our north

 

UKMO

 

 

now wants the high over us

 

 

peace for yous all today for a while anyway sunday roast at mothers so the snow chances taking a back seat for now will see yous all for the ECM 12z hopefully.

Edited November 17, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[lorenzo]

LS is the snow guru. Hopefully he will furnish us with Skew T analysis and one of his legendary maps. With that tricky low in the mix am sure even the Meto are finding it a tricky one to forecast. At least we now now that when we see stuff on the telly it derives from the NAE.

 

Those 950hpa temps did this area in for a lot of last winter.

 

Model Thread has been wobbly today, toys being accumulated for later, bit like the ebb and flow of the model output over the last couple of days.  Pretty much like clockwork have found the 00z runs dilute the cold solutions and the 12z upgrade them., thus ensuring a complete rammy every evening. 

[blitzen]

 

 

Model Thread has been wobbly today, toys being accumulated for later, bit like the ebb and flow of the model output over the last couple of days.  Pretty much like clockwork have found the 00z runs dilute the cold solutions and the 12z upgrade them., thus ensuring a complete rammy every evening. 

 

I can just see it now.........MOD Retirement  Home.....

 

[GulberwickWeather]

Looking good for a wee bit of the white stuff up here methinks. Wintry showers tomorrow turning to snow in the afternoon and looking potentially like some quite heavy showers on Tuesday

[LomondSnowstorm]

LS is the snow guru. Hopefully he will furnish us with Skew T analysis and one of his legendary maps. With that tricky low in the mix am sure even the Meto are finding it a tricky one to forecast. At least we now now that when we see stuff on the telly it derives from the NAE.

 

Those 950hpa temps did this area in for a lot of last winter.

 

Model Thread has been wobbly today, toys being accumulated for later, bit like the ebb and flow of the model output over the last couple of days.  Pretty much like clockwork have found the 00z runs dilute the cold solutions and the 12z upgrade them., thus ensuring a complete rammy every evening. 

 

It is a tough one to call certainly, and it's changed a lot due to that damned overblown shortwave and associated warm sector (which sadly looks to be progged further east, although a lot can still change in the next 60 hours before it hits).

Anyway, I'll wait for the 12Zs to roll out before I give my assessments, certainly some potential based on the fax charts with troughs in the flow (although as always these too vary a lot in their placement):

 

by Monday 3pm the coldest uppers are starting to push in, although 950s remain a touch on the high side (although close enough to 0C for heavier precipitation to fall as snow):

 

 

by Monday night we should be out of the marginal zone and all precipitation is falling as snow:

 

Some showers making it into central areas too by evening:

 

A note about skew-ts - given that convection is going to develop out in the Atlantic, in the Minch, Moray Firth etc. it may be more worthwhile looking at skew-ts for the coastal NW highlands and the Moray coast to see if we can get some decent convection built up which can then sustain moving southwards. The skew-ts for lowland parts will be important too but if troughs move over between three hour skew-t charts then it might not be flagged up so well. Anyway, we'll see how that looks once the 12Zs are all out.

[LomondSnowstorm]

This is certainly a good profile to be going on with on Tuesday:

 

Any chart that shows precipitation through the day Tuesday as anything other than snow is nonsense IMO - whatever you see on the precipitation charts is going to fall as snow. It might not lie, but if you haven't seen snow so far this winter your best chance of seeing it so far is either Monday night or Tuesday.

[Hairy Celt]

This is certainly a good profile to be going on with on Tuesday:

 

Any chart that shows precipitation through the day Tuesday as anything other than snow is nonsense IMO - whatever you see on the precipitation charts is going to fall as snow. It might not lie, but if you haven't seen snow so far this winter your best chance of seeing it so far is either Monday night or Tuesday.

Ok, better get the council to fix that street lamp out here, pronto.  Got my searchlight ready too (actually a damn bright headtorch, good enough for coastal air defences).