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Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    would be good to see some snow next week personally I wasn't holding out much hope as northerlies tend to be crap here with the highlands cutting everything off before it gets here but I suppose in November theres always a chance of something managing to make its way over if it was into winter theres no chance unless its a front.

     

    The flow does kink from time to time so we'll see what happens. Fronts are only any use if they have occluded, you'll never get much from a warm or cold front as they are either too warm for snow or move too quickly to leave much (unless the fronts have stalled, but this usually results in an occlusion anyway). I have enough painful memories of warm sectors followed by cold fronts rattling through to know this too well. Posted Image

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    Interesting........Why earlier in winter would any snow have more chance reaching the central belt than later in the winter?

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Interesting........Why earlier in winter would any snow have more chance reaching the central belt than later in the winter?

     

    Convection?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    I'd noticed that about the 500Temps too, didn't want to say much about it as it never seems to happen, although I couldn't resist mentioning them earlier on. One of these days we'll see a proper PL or two, in full glory on radar and satellite pics.

    I felt I had to do the honour since Mondy/BFT isn't around at the momentPosted Image

    The flow does kink from time to time so we'll see what happens. Fronts are only any use if they have occluded, you'll never get much from a warm or cold front as they are either too warm for snow or move too quickly to leave much. I have enough painful memories of warm sectors followed by cold fronts rattling through to know this too well. Posted Image

    Kinks in the flow are pretty good (unless you're called Stewart Stevenson sadly), troughs can be decent as well depending on the topography, I might have to dig out some fax charts from the northerlies than went right in past years to say whether it was the cold front or just troughs embedded in the flow.

     

    Interesting........Why earlier in winter would any snow have more chance reaching the central belt than later in the winter?

    Basically, convection is enhanced because SSTs are 4-5C greater than they are later in the winter. It's not specific to northerlies and in fact it's why the November 2010 easterly was so exceptionally brilliant (and why the Great Lakes get most of their snowfall in November/December before the lakes freeze up) but it does help to get it over the Grampians.

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    its like when we are in summer we can have showers still build over land where in winter they die out coming over land but we haven't fully run out of summer or autumn juice yet so showers can still go from one side of the country to the other but if you look at last winter later on in the season there was little chance of that happening

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    right what do we all think our lowest temp will be for our area and what do we think the lowest in Scotland will be.

     

     

    I think -17 here and close to -30 somewhere

     

    little low I know but I want a spectacular winter

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    wonder how long the bloke was stuck in the gritter what a vehicle to get stuck in snow with Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

    March this year had a mean below 2C and there's a possibility that November could have a sub 3C mean. Since records began this has only happened 5 times.

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    18z ensemble has me up to 80% snow chance on Monday evening Posted Image

     

    post-18233-0-40128800-1384478437_thumb.g

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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl

     

     two days after the verification date of that chart we were staring down the barrel of an exceptional cold spell:

     

     

     

    This is just one of the finest sentences I've read in here… yes please, can we have that again?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Not that much to report in the way of short term changes this morning, GFS wants to hold its shortwave further north thereby giving us a shot at the prize of proper frontal snow (as much as 4-6 inches possible inland) but these things usually flip around and even if we don't get this we're compensated with lower uppers and convective stuff instead. Longer term the UKMO has decided to come onboard for the northeasterly while the GFS is a bit less keen and the ECM goes a bit mental as it tries to sink the high then decides it wants another go at a northerly after all. ECM ensembles look almost identical to 12 hours ago though, so I think ultimately we're not in any better or worse position than yesterday, but it's going to be a few days before Thursday onwards gets properly resolved. Fortunately, we don't even need to worry about that yet because we've got a good enough cold spell lined up next week as it is, and that's mostly what we should focus on until the longer term becomes clearer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl

    lol Posted Image they could form a support group................. the irony is she thinks this is pointless whilst her activity of choice is reading out statuses on facebook to me of people i do not know.......

    Jings, I'm glad that, between seasons, I replaced last winter's Kent-based chap with a much improved updated version in the Midlands who not only properly appreciates snow and ice, but also is starting to ask interested questions about why a Greenie high means different weather from a Scandi high… 

    Problem is, I'm going to have to sharpen up my meteorological comprehension if I'm going to answer his questions! :)

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl

     

     

    Basically, convection is enhanced because SSTs are 4-5C greater than they are later in the winter. It's not specific to northerlies and in fact it's why the November 2010 easterly was so exceptionally brilliant (and why the Great Lakes get most of their snowfall in November/December before the lakes freeze up) but it does help to get it over the Grampians.

    Ahhhh! THANKYOU! I hadn't understood that previously… the LS Met-translate service works well!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Glasgow 100m asl
  • Location: South Glasgow 100m asl

    Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

    Sunday dry with some sunshine and lighter winds. A few showers on Monday, turning wintry on high ground. Tuesday very cold, with scattered snow showers

     

     

    Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

     

     

    For longer term prospects, I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that December will probably be the coldest and snowiest winter month on record since I'll be out of the country after the first week... looking possible so I would use that factor in any forecasts Posted Image  (I'd be mad if I wasn't going to Canada for a bit!Posted Image  )

    Edited by Ross B
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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Not that much to report in the way of short term changes this morning, GFS wants to hold its shortwave further north thereby giving us a shot at the prize of proper frontal snow (as much as 4-6 inches possible inland) but these things usually flip around and even if we don't get this we're compensated with lower uppers and convective stuff instead. Longer term the UKMO has decided to come onboard for the northeasterly while the GFS is a bit less keen and the ECM goes a bit mental as it tries to sink the high then decides it wants another go at a northerly after all. ECM ensembles look almost identical to 12 hours ago though, so I think ultimately we're not in any better or worse position than yesterday, but it's going to be a few days before Thursday onwards gets properly resolved. Fortunately, we don't even need to worry about that yet because we've got a good enough cold spell lined up next week as it is, and that's mostly what we should focus on until the longer term becomes clearer.

     

    Great summary. Some people on the Model Thread are too obsessed with what's shown in 6-7 days time rather than preparing to sit back and enjoy what's going to happen in 4-5 days time. Having said that, some of the posted charts from the GFS FI are just crazy cold and just for once it'd be nice to see something like that verify.

     

    I'll really need to post some of the pictures I took of our garden and street from 2010. I was looking at them the other day and frankly I find it difficult to believe there was really that much snow even though I was out every morning shoveling it for what seems like weeks!

     

    This mornings weather report - dry, 3C at 8am, sheet of medium level white cloud with just the odd bit of blue peeking through, slight breeze.

     

    In preparation for next week I need to get the garage cleared of junk, mainly excess cardboard, so that we can get the wife's car under cover.

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    Posted
  • Location: Milltimber, Aberdeen (73m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snoooowwww with some thunderstorms on the side
  • Location: Milltimber, Aberdeen (73m asl)

    Do I smell snow on the horizon!? :)

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    Gawd, can't say I fancy those steep slopes in slush and ice.  What a savage introduction!

     

    In other news, beautiful sunset here in Fife.  Nice and still.  It has that wintry feel about it.

    The two guys I was with were much more experienced, one was a mountain rescue team member. It was pretty brutal hard work but worth it.  I'll have to have a look in the attic for the old Truprint snaps!

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    Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland, ASL 33m/108ft
  • Location: Perth, Scotland, ASL 33m/108ft

    6 months away from here and things have not changed in the madness thread. Will they ever learn?

    Looking forward to our first of hopefully many cold blasts. Really cannot complain with winter still a couple of weeks away. Must admit though the thought of scraping the car at 5:30 each morning dampens enthusiasm ever so slightly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    6 months away from here and things have not changed in the madness thread. Will they ever learn?

    Looking forward to our first of hopefully many cold blasts. Really cannot complain with winter still a couple of weeks away. Must admit though the thought of scraping the car at 5:30 each morning dampens enthusiasm ever so slightly.

     

    Try this stuff. Changes the wettability of glass to make it water repellent. You often don't even need wipers in rain; just runs off.

     

    Also makes it much easier to get frost off in my experience.

     

    http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/accessories-tyres/44857/rain-x?utm_source=taboola-internal

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Not that much to report in the way of short term changes this morning, GFS wants to hold its shortwave further north thereby giving us a shot at the prize of proper frontal snow (as much as 4-6 inches possible inland) but these things usually flip around and even if we don't get this we're compensated with lower uppers and convective stuff instead. Longer term the UKMO has decided to come onboard for the northeasterly while the GFS is a bit less keen and the ECM goes a bit mental as it tries to sink the high then decides it wants another go at a northerly after all. ECM ensembles look almost identical to 12 hours ago though, so I think ultimately we're not in any better or worse position than yesterday, but it's going to be a few days before Thursday onwards gets properly resolved. Fortunately, we don't even need to worry about that yet because we've got a good enough cold spell lined up next week as it is, and that's mostly what we should focus on until the longer term becomes clearer.

     

    Aye, there's no point worrying about winning the £1million jackpot when we're looking good to win the £25,000 prize in the next seven days. The charts are somewhat divergent over what happens down the line:

     

    post-2844-0-93142500-1384519109_thumb.gi

     

    Everyone needs to go with the (500hpa) flow...(please tell me that at least one of you groaned when you read that :good: )

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    Posted
  • Location: The Highlands of West Fife. 650ft ASL. Nr Knockhill Racing Circuit
  • Weather Preferences: Hot N' Sunny / Cauld N' Snawy
  • Location: The Highlands of West Fife. 650ft ASL. Nr Knockhill Racing Circuit

    Aye, there's no point worrying about winning the £1million jackpot when we're looking good to win the £25,000 prize in the next seven days. The charts are somewhat divergent over what happens down the line:

     

    Posted Image15th Nov ECM GFS 8 10 Day Mean 00z.gif

     

    Everyone needs to go with the (500hpa) flow...(please tell me that at least one of you groaned when you read that Posted Image )

    Thanks JH (smiley)

    Big Innes

    Grrrr, cannae get mah fkn smilies tae wurk these days!

    Edited by Big Innes Madori
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    thought I would drop this in here I saw it in the winter thread.

     

    shows theres still signs for height rises to our north west.

     

    post-18233-0-55032100-1384523170_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

    Ooooo....what a grey day! 9.2c here currently, but feels colder with a damp wind that goes right through you. So, we still appear to be on track for the cold next week then? Will just pop over to the MOD for a look, (with a handful of Prozac and Kwells!)

     

    post-1989-0-36874700-1384529738.txt

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