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Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013


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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    I was hoping we would see upgrades LS and I suppose we have today but the ECM there has me worried as I would rather be putting my eggs in its basket rather than the GFS or GEM but we will just have to wait and see how the ECM mean and ensembles work out.

     

    hopefully that high to the east doesn't kill us but i'm sure in the next few days we will find out.

     

    and your right at the end wait for FI to sort itself and just look forward to next week just now and hope for more to come.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    I was hoping we would see upgrades LS and I suppose we have today but the ECM there has me worried as I would rather be putting my eggs in its basket rather than the GFS or GEM but we will just have to wait and see how the ECM mean and ensembles work out.

     

    hopefully that high to the east doesn't kill us but i'm sure in the next few days we will find out.

     

    and your right at the end wait for FI to sort itself and just look forward to next week just now and hope for more to come.

    It's all a bonus anyway I suppose at this time of year, just nice to see some proper blocking on the charts this early in the season. Possible that the models are overestimating the heights over Russia too as they did in January/February 2012, which ironically would be a big boost whereas then it was a major hinderance!

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    GEFS mean has been dropping today and snow chances on the increase which is a good sign

     

    post-18233-0-62923900-1384462593_thumb.gpost-18233-0-65155100-1384462601_thumb.gpost-18233-0-25122500-1384462612_thumb.g

     

    GFS anomalies chart going colder aswell still shows the need for Greenland though with higher anomalies out east

     

    post-18233-0-98971300-1384462709_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    GEM mean looking good for us as well

     

    post-18233-0-67181100-1384462949_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Dennyloanhead. (49m ASL)
  • Location: Dennyloanhead. (49m ASL)

    Wow I go away for a day or so and miss weather upgrades and DEBBIE HARRY,,Posted Image  although I was more a Kelly LeBrock fan, shame the weird science theory was not real...Posted Image

    Snaw better not arrive till Monday night at least as I am in Scouse land again.

    Edited by Cheggers
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    Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

    A pleasant day and a spectacular wintry sunset with pink/orange/peach/purple cirrus clouds against the blue evening sky. Failed to reach double digits. During the first 10 days, this happened on 9 occasions - since 1973, this has never happened before in November at the airport. It's great to see the first proper, arctic sourced cold spell of the season. This incursion early next week doesn't happen every year in November (and November snow isn't a perennial event for everyone aswell). It would be even more pleasing if we all see some snow during next week. The last time I saw snow here in November was in 2010 - the first accumilations arriving late on the 26th and before that the earliest I had seen lying snow was briefly on the 25th Nov 2005. This spell will sure bring winter excitement into the thread and with a bit of luck it might bring some very early lying snow for some. The cold, fresh air and crisp conditions should make things feel and look very festive aswell as greatly adding to the cool weather we've achieved so far this month.

     

    Thereafter, looking at the conditions presented by the models - some frost, fog and cold, crisp conditions again would make for a fairly traditional, cold November ending with some settled, quiet winter weather without the snow and potency we'd be more likely to experience later in the season. Synoptically, it is 'gripping' again with some very decent and solid signs. However how such factors evolve during the days will create more model drama. This feels familiar, roughly this time last year - without a lot of solid stratospheric support - we witnessed high pressure make progress into interesting areas. There was a small window for 'big-freeze' like synoptics/conditions but instead the model saga went on and the result was a nice, festive, cold start to the winter with high pressure ending up just to our north. At the moment, I'd say things look a lot more promising for a more significant cold/or wintry start to winter than last year there are many hurdles in the way and options on the table. If we don't achieve a proper Greenland high the first time round, then it's likely that the interest in the models will continue with a possibility of further attempts. LS this evening has posted a few charts going back to Nov 2010 when around 5 days before the cold spell really got going, synoptically it looked promising with blocking already in place but it did take time for the conditions to follow. 

     

    The GFS 12z looked pretty good with the WAA into Greenland during an earlier stage - fingers crossed for more upgrades and support from other models during future runs. The high looks like moving towards Scandinavia - possibly liking with the Russian high - on some runs. ECM 12z and some other runs offer stunning synoptics with winds coming from the east but with lack of a cold pool over the continent. Such charts would bring unbelievable conditions during the middle of winter. We would need a section of the polar vortex to plunge south into the continent and then we would really be in business. BUS recently posted about 'GOB' and how the ECM 12z at face value doesn't look that great - but looking at the wider picture, any block that sets up around Scandinavia or Iceland could potentially retrograde to Greenland. Anyway, some decent winter conditions for late November is on the way - including some snow - and the winter model-watching madness has well and truly started. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    Good to see some familiar names returning to the forum again, hopefully even more will be back along with some newcomers as the northerly gets into 'telly forecast' range. If you're a newcomer or just a more occasional poster from years gone by who's lurking then come and say hi and join in with the discussion - we're friendly folk, honest!Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    ah kelly le brock what a great shout and one of my favourite films.....just falls short of ferris buellers day off!!

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Wow I go away for a day or so and miss weather upgrades and DEBBIE HARRY,,Posted Image  although I was more a Kelly LeBrock fan, shame the weird science theory was not real...Posted Image

    Snaw better not arrive till Monday night at least as I am in Scouse land again.

     

    I've been told by the nosey pain in the f-a-r-t-e-r other half to ask you why CHEGGERS lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    good question BUS..... why cheggers why??????

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Wow, bit of an epic 24 hours of model runs, looking at some of these charts is eye watering in the midst of a proper industrial 2 day hangover. Too old for mid week partying til 4am !

     

    Insane Control Run. A real box of frogs.

    post-7292-0-71594300-1384465871_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-96543100-1384465872_thumb.pn

     

    This is a pleasure to see at just 144hrs out. -9.7 850hpa temps on tonight 12z.

    post-7292-0-44659700-1384465986_thumb.pn

     

    Some crazy, crazy model watching the propensity of High Pressure to develop across the NH in that control run is one of the maddest things I think have seen..

     

    Some great, great posts today. Superb analysis, Debbie Harry, Kelly LeBrock - ooft ! magic Video Ben and a whole bunch of wild charts in the offing. Cannae beat model watching in Winter.

     

    Though we might get something exciting, certainly did not expect a 2010 revisited.. Very interesting from here creeping into Fax range.

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Not this honest. Posted Image  Family forum and all.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naked_Jungle

     

    that was her guess keith chegwin is that the reason

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    Posted Image

     

    only 4 days away and cold air arrives...... thought better post 1 chart and will now leave the rest to the experts :)

     

    4am Lorenzo???? lol thats hardcore.... I see a lot of 4am but its bottles and nappies!!...... local inn from 9-12 is my limit these days apart from the obligatory office xmas nite out of course

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Wow, bit of an epic 24 hours of model runs, looking at some of these charts is eye watering in the midst of a proper industrial 2 day hangover. Too old for mid week partying til 4am !

     

    Insane Control Run. A real box of frogs.

    Posted Imagegefs_z500anom_c_nh_61.pngPosted Imagegensnh-0-1-360.png

     

    This is a pleasure to see at just 144hrs out. -9.7 850hpa temps on tonight 12z.

    Posted Imageecm_t850_anom_eur_7.png

     

    Some crazy, crazy model watching the propensity of High Pressure to develop across the NH in that control run is one of the maddest things I think have seen..

     

    Some great, great posts today. Superb analysis, Debbie Harry, Kelly LeBrock - ooft ! magic Video Ben and a whole bunch of wild charts in the offing. Cannae beat model watching in Winter.

     

    Though we might get something exciting, certainly did not expect a 2010 revisited.. Very interesting from here creeping into Fax range.

     

    I've known since September we were looking at 2010 again Posted Image

     

    in all seriousness was just a guess but its looking a good one just now.

     

    will I guess for utter snowmageddon next year and see if we luck out Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    Not this honest. Posted Image  Family forum and all.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naked_Jungle

     lol i remember that #carcrashtv

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Going by the latest GFS somewhere between southern Scotland and the Midlands is going to get a pasting from that front crawling south...

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    Posted
  • Location: Dennyloanhead. (49m ASL)
  • Location: Dennyloanhead. (49m ASL)

    BUS, close association with my names, and a bad quiff many years ago and growing up in the 80's.

     

    Excitement growing for next week by all accounts, but a repeat for 2010 would be just mental, I assume Keith has been briefed.Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    wife just said "I suppose thats you looking at your stupid weather coloured in map thingies for the next 3 months now" that means winter officially started and she has lost control of the laptop...... i bought you a tablet last year my dear for this scenario :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    wife just said "I suppose thats you looking at your stupid weather coloured in map thingies for the next 3 months now" that means winter officially started and she has lost control of the laptop...... i bought you a tablet last year my dear for this scenario Posted Image

     

    Can you tell Mrs edodfc that Mrs Catch sends her sympathies :lol:

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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

    Very cold windy day but showers fading and ground drying as we started lifting a store of neeps this afternoon.Will probably lift more tomorrow ahead of next week in case we can"t get back to them for a wile.

    Some hard frosts next week should help to knock down the tops which have been choking the machine today and we will probably lift some more later next week if this happens as progress was slow today.

    Farm is buzzing this week coal ordered today, freezer topped up with bread,winter tyres on last Monday,garden almost dug,ploughing on its way, new fence nearly complete,new steading gutter going in today hopefully finished tomorrow so preparations for winter are well in hand. All these were planned well in advance but all seem to be happening this week. And Northernlights is a bit tired as well after two days socialising in Edinburgh

    Cows and calves are time tabled to come in on Sunday and so the winter routine will be established.

    Currently 3c and clear

    Edited by Northernlights
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    wife just said "I suppose thats you looking at your stupid weather coloured in map thingies for the next 3 months now" that means winter officially started and she has lost control of the laptop...... i bought you a tablet last year my dear for this scenario Posted Image

     

    that's class needed a really good laugh Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    my original post from September and I have put it in as if we do get an early cold blast we will have to watch the ice in September as it cant be a coincidence with how early cold would come with early ice advance and could give us a useful tool at telling if we might get an early blast as early as September I will be watching this in winters to come

     

     

     

    Posted 24 September 2013 - 10:49

    CatchMyDrift, on 24 Sept 2013 - 09:38, said:Posted Image

    I'd settle for a couple of months of wet, stormy weather and then winter to start about the third week of December, last until late February before a gentle, warm spring. I don't ask for much, do I?

     

    seems like a reasonable request to me.

     

    i'm gonna do some hard digging into things in the next couple of weeks as I know there has been some recent model updates going for early heights around Greenland and iceland and I think they might be on to something I just have a funny feeling we could get a 2010 hit again

     

    should probably add why I think that.

     

    I think our cold could be put down to early ice advance and snow cover and I hear all these people saying about this as concern to developing an SSW but I really think there missing out on something as I think the early ice advance and snow cover is what we might need to give the cold an early kick up the bum for it to make the travel down here as it cant be a coincidence that the two years we had really good early advance in sea ice more so than the snow cover is the two winters we had deep cold over the uk

     

    this year the ice has started its comeback already and we are way ahead in snow cover with good 850's forecast this should advance over the next week so we will wait to see how things go this year.

     

    if this turns out that we do see a correlation this could be a really good tool to try and gauge through September and start of October what we might see in the following winter.

    Edited by Buriedundersnow, 24 September 2013 - 11:06 .

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    Posted
  • Location: s.w. of Edinburgh (Currie - 145m / 475ft asl)
  • Location: s.w. of Edinburgh (Currie - 145m / 475ft asl)

    Evening guys, thought I would clock in for the winter season !

     

    Things starting to get really interesting, that GFS control run earlier was unreal.

     

    Here's to another cold winter hopefully ! Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    Can you tell Mrs edodfc that Mrs Catch sends her sympathies Posted Image

    lol :) they could form a support group................. the irony is she thinks this is pointless whilst her activity of choice is reading out statuses on facebook to me of people i do not know.......

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