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Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013


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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    Right, come on, own up, who's nicked my sun? Posted Image

     

    Universal cover of grey cloud here for a change this morning, which is a shock after the decent sunny days we've been treated to lately. I think we managed around 7hrs of sunshine yesterday according to the weather observations from Dyce (http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/3091.html). The cloud has kept the temperatures up a bit and the frost away this morning.

     

    Trying not to get too excited about the prospects for next week. I don't expect it to be a major event but to see any snow falling in November at all is always a bonus. If it lies on the local hills then even better.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    A chilly outlook.

     

     

    With 8 to 10 day mean charts like this it certainly could be. Details are a long way off but whatever's cooking is looking good so far:

     

    post-2844-0-19700600-1384342591_thumb.gi

     

    Another 24 - 48 hours and it's getting into FAX chart range :) A good few days of chart watching coming up at the very least, there's still time for it to un-nailded itself.

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    UKMO at +144 is excellent too (can't post as on mobile), a proper Arctic flow with a nice westerly kink which could give something along the lines of a 9th January 2011 type snowfall (or a much watered down 6th December 2010 'grittergate' when the MO alerted the transport department of a foot of snow across the central belt with a yellow warning of ice). SM mentioning the parallels to November 2010, and while again I'd stress it's an outside possibility the massive snowfalls were also just an outside possibility at this stage of November 2010. A warmer continent and a stronger vortex however do mean it's even more of an outside bet but if we can get a sustained GH anything's possible for the end of the month. My thoughts are that we're more likely to see blocking remain at our latitudes for the most part with a reload more likely in the form of a colder northerly followed by Polar northwesterlies but it's very interesting to say the least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/cold in winter, hot and sunny in summer
  • Location: Dunfermline, Fife, Scotland

    joe b thinks we are looking good

     

    Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori 23m

    Europe-parties over as it turns colder, could deepen into a December to remember. Blocking could pop Hope those turbines are working

     

     

    note the atlantic in the chart

     

    W = warm

     

    C = cold

     

    TRIPOLE =  warm then cold then warm ( warm south of Greenland, cold mid atlantic and warm tropical atlantic)

     

    Posted Image

     

    its said if this sets up in the atlantic it can mean a cold winter for us here in the UK

     

    SST anomalies can be found here

     

    http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html

    Thanks, clear to me now, heres hoping!

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    If you venture into the Model Thread make sure you go in with your full digital combat gear on, it's not looking pretty. There are drifts of TOORP reaching epic proportions and it's only the 13th of Nov, it's going to be a long winter.

     

    Random edit:

     

    I find this is a handy tool for comparing some of the main models: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=modelcomp;sess=

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    personally I am punting for the models to go with the colder option LS and I don't know why but have a funny feeling the models might develop something really good for us cold lovers over the next say 4 or 5 days of runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    personally I am punting for the models to go with the colder option LS and I don't know why but have a funny feeling the models might develop something really good for us cold lovers over the next say 4 or 5 days of runs.

     

    I'm happy to second that BUS, 'mon the icebergs and polar bears Posted Image

     

    I don't see anything wrong with having a full scale rampede, if it all goes nipples up then who really cares, it's not even winter yet Posted Image

     

    Today's 12z ECM is going for glory, total and utter glory :good:

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    have put my hopes for winter in my signature hopefully we can see something like it

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    Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire (this lockdown) Freuchie, Fife (normally)

    I'm happy to second that BUS, 'mon the icebergs and polar bears Posted Image

     

    I don't see anything wrong with having a full scale rampede, if it all goes nipples up then who really cares, it's not even winter yet Posted Image

     

    Today's 12z ECM is going for glory, total and utter glory Posted Image

     

    Classic ECM, superb synoptics but slightly watered down uppers. Still, what does it matter with temperatures like these on the ground:

    post-9298-0-21953100-1384371610_thumb.pn

    Posted Image

     

    And the first signs of some North Sea convection popping up too in the northeasterly flow:

    post-9298-0-40956200-1384371865_thumb.pn

    The angle of attack will shift around a bit, but the main thing is that the potential is there and we have cross model agreement for our first proper Arctic incursion of 2013/14

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    Hey OTR @tony_wells and i am @edodfc

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    Hey OTR @tony_wells and i am @edodfc

     

    we all handing out twitter now

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

    from MATT HUGO on twitter

     

    Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 4m

    There is support within the 12Z EC ENS for the Det model. Over 28 members (out of 51) support the build of pressure to the N of the UK.

     

    Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 3m

    Way in the future but 24 members (out of 51) produce an extensive region of northern blocking over Greenland & surrounding areas by 24th Nov

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    Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

     

    [*] 

    [*] 

     
     

     

     

    Aurora Storm and I went to a very interesting Royal Meteorological Society lecture on the sun and its role in climate change in Edinburgh with Professor Joanna Haigh last night.
     
    The basis of it was that heat output from the sun is not affecting earths climate but that fluctuating levels of U.V. related to sunspot activity and acting on the upper atmosphere are leading to extra movements north and south of the jetstream and so affecting the surface weather. She also said it was most apparent in the mid latitudes and any one observing the weather in Scotland could pick up the changes in the last decade or so and probably link it to the changes in sunspot activity that are causing it. 
     

    An almost carbon copy of her lecture is available here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSsTZJ8Ff4Q 

     

     

    Are we about to see some interesting surface weather next week because of this?

     

     

    Posted ImagePlay
     
    The sun and the climate Imperial College London

    Professor Joanna Haigh, Head of the Department of Physics, discusses the effect of the variations of solar forces on the earth's climate. For more information please visit http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/newsandeventspggrp/imperialcollege/eventssummary/event_27-3-2013-14-27-33

     

     

     

    very interesting and I especially like the chart in the video which shows a tendency for higher heights to our northwest which is what we have been seeing the past few years and probably will continue for years to come as that's the biggest driver in affecting our part of the world in winter and it seems to be our little corner that feels the affect the most according to records.

     

    so bring on more height rises there and some good OMEGA blocking in the winters of the future.

     

    P.S. should probably put that in the winter thread or something for others to see as i'm sure plenty others will be interested in watching it.

    Edited by Buriedundersnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

    Morning all! Bit of a wild day here yesterday and more of the same today by the look of things. So mild though, but getting colder next week by all accounts. A proper winter on the way??

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    Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Inverurie

    It's OK folks, I've found my sun again, it was hiding down the back of the sofa yesterday. Posted Image

     

    So it's blue skies and sun again this morning after yesterdays blip. Temps around 5/6C so no frost but feeling rather raw in a strong northwesterly breeze.

     

    Next weeks cool down is increasingly being mentioned on the BBC weather reports, even Carol on BBC Breakfast mentioned the 'S' word for next week. Of course that just increases the chances of the models backtracking and it becoming a non-event.

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    Posted
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
  • Weather Preferences: appropriately seasonal
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire

    Going to have a look on the 'unstable' model thread in a min and see what this mornings crack is! Was quite windy here yesterday evening but now calm, blue sky and sunshine at 6C. 

     

    P.S I've followed Lorenzo, Edo and thanks to BUS's quote Matt Hugo! Don't follow any weather people - so now that should help keep me up to date! You don't need to follow me back because I generally chat rubbish Posted Image

    Edited by over_the_rainbow
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Going to have a look on the 'unstable' model thread in a min and see what this mornings crack is! Was quite windy here yesterday evening but now calm, blue sky and sunshine at 6C. 

     

    P.S I've followed Lorenzo, Edo and thanks to BUS's quote Matt Hugo! Don't follow any weather people - so now that should help keep me up to date! You don't need to follow me back because I generally chat rubbish Posted Image

     

    I take it that the visit to the ModThread went badly, you never reported back. Models on a total flip-flop this morning so yesterday's warning of full riot gear needed in there has been increased to a warning of only going in if you've got tanks and full air support...

     

    Edit: I take it back, it's all peace and tranquillity in there today :good:

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
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    Posted
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
  • Weather Preferences: appropriately seasonal
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire

    lol Catch from what I can gather GFS has come on board and the 6Z is good, but the ECM ironically isn't quite as good this morning looking more cold and dry. Posted Image

     

    How professional was that explanation? See, now I've cleared it all up for you all! Posted Image

    Edited by over_the_rainbow
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    Posted
  • Location: Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Subzero
  • Location: Fife

    Made an emergency appointment this afternoon to get my winters fitted :)  Otherwise I won't be able to do so until next Friday.......and that might be too late!  :winky:

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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl

    I really need to see snow on the Pentlands from my window soon… it's been way too long! I keep humming the David Essex* song "Only a Winter's Tale" and can't watch the video until I've seen snow! Neeeed snaaawwww! Even if only on the tops and at a distance… but it's being all cold and sunny and nearly-nearly-nearly-winter-y and I want my snaw!!!*look - I'm female and nearly 45. It's the equivalent of that poster of Debbie Harry in a rugby shirt for all you guys, ok? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    I really need to see snow on the Pentlands from my window soon… it's been way too long! I keep humming the David Essex* song "Only a Winter's Tale" and can't watch the video until I've seen snow! Neeeed snaaawwww! Even if only on the tops and at a distance… but it's being all cold and sunny and nearly-nearly-nearly-winter-y and I want my snaw!!!*look - I'm female and nearly 45. It's the equivalent of that poster of Debbie Harry in a rugby shirt for all you guys, ok? 

     

    Thanks to my Dad I know who Debbie Harry is, but LS and several others might have a few questions :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

    Gosh. I really don't need reminding of Debbie Harry's warm front just now.  It's been a week of weather so far with mental gusts blowing stuff around, lots of blustery showers every day with bits of sleet & hail thrown in.  Oh, here comes one now. Glad I have a morning under cover for a change!

     

    So how low will the snow fall & lie next week?

    Edited by Hairy Celt
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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl

    Gosh. I really don't need reminding of Debbie Harry's warm front just now. 

    Would you mind explaining to the ickle kiddiwinks about Debbie Harry's effect on all males in existence in the early 80s, please? :)Still bright and sunny here. Nippy and crisp and really rather lovely. Not as lovely as snaw would be...

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