scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm happy to second that BUS, 'mon the icebergs and polar bears

 

I don't see anything wrong with having a full scale rampede, if it all goes nipples up then who really cares, it's not even winter yet

 

Today's 12z ECM is going for glory, total and utter glory

 

Classic ECM, superb synoptics but slightly watered down uppers. Still, what does it matter with temperatures like these on the ground:

 

And the first signs of some North Sea convection popping up too in the northeasterly flow:

The angle of attack will shift around a bit, but the main thing is that the potential is there and we have cross model agreement for our first proper Arctic incursion of 2013/14

 

[edo]

Hey OTR @tony_wells and i am @edodfc

[Buriedundersnow]

Hey OTR @tony_wells and i am @edodfc

 

we all handing out twitter now

[Northernlights]

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Aurora Storm and I went to a very interesting Royal Meteorological Society lecture on the sun and its role in climate change in Edinburgh with Professor Joanna Haigh last night.

 

The basis of it was that heat output from the sun is not affecting earths climate but that fluctuating levels of U.V. related to sunspot activity and acting on the upper atmosphere are leading to extra movements north and south of the jetstream and so affecting the surface weather. She also said it was most apparent in the mid latitudes and any one observing the weather in Scotland could pick up the changes in the last decade or so and probably link it to the changes in sunspot activity that are causing it. 

 

An almost carbon copy of her lecture is available here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSsTZJ8Ff4Q 

 

 

Are we about to see some interesting surface weather next week because of this?

 

 

Play

(Show link)

 

The sun and the climate Imperial College London

Professor Joanna Haigh, Head of the Department of Physics, discusses the effect of the variations of solar forces on the earth's climate. For more information please visit http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/newsandeventspggrp/imperialcollege/eventssummary/event_27-3-2013-14-27-33

(Show link)

 

[Buriedundersnow]

from MATT HUGO on twitter

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 4m

There is support within the 12Z EC ENS for the Det model. Over 28 members (out of 51) support the build of pressure to the N of the UK.

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 3m

Way in the future but 24 members (out of 51) produce an extensive region of northern blocking over Greenland & surrounding areas by 24th Nov

[Buriedundersnow]

 

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Aurora Storm and I went to a very interesting Royal Meteorological Society lecture on the sun and its role in climate change in Edinburgh with Professor Joanna Haigh last night.

 

The basis of it was that heat output from the sun is not affecting earths climate but that fluctuating levels of U.V. related to sunspot activity and acting on the upper atmosphere are leading to extra movements north and south of the jetstream and so affecting the surface weather. She also said it was most apparent in the mid latitudes and any one observing the weather in Scotland could pick up the changes in the last decade or so and probably link it to the changes in sunspot activity that are causing it. 

 

An almost carbon copy of her lecture is available here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSsTZJ8Ff4Q 

 

 

Are we about to see some interesting surface weather next week because of this?

 

 

Play

(Show link)

 

The sun and the climate Imperial College London

Professor Joanna Haigh, Head of the Department of Physics, discusses the effect of the variations of solar forces on the earth's climate. For more information please visit http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/newsandeventspggrp/imperialcollege/eventssummary/event_27-3-2013-14-27-33

(Show link)

 

 

 

very interesting and I especially like the chart in the video which shows a tendency for higher heights to our northwest which is what we have been seeing the past few years and probably will continue for years to come as that's the biggest driver in affecting our part of the world in winter and it seems to be our little corner that feels the affect the most according to records.

 

so bring on more height rises there and some good OMEGA blocking in the winters of the future.

 

P.S. should probably put that in the winter thread or something for others to see as i'm sure plenty others will be interested in watching it.

Edited November 13, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[mistyqueen]

Morning all! Bit of a wild day here yesterday and more of the same today by the look of things. So mild though, but getting colder next week by all accounts. A proper winter on the way??

[Ravelin]

It's OK folks, I've found my sun again, it was hiding down the back of the sofa yesterday.

 

So it's blue skies and sun again this morning after yesterdays blip. Temps around 5/6C so no frost but feeling rather raw in a strong northwesterly breeze.

 

Next weeks cool down is increasingly being mentioned on the BBC weather reports, even Carol on BBC Breakfast mentioned the 'S' word for next week. Of course that just increases the chances of the models backtracking and it becoming a non-event.

[over_the_rainbow]

Going to have a look on the 'unstable' model thread in a min and see what this mornings crack is! Was quite windy here yesterday evening but now calm, blue sky and sunshine at 6C. 

 

P.S I've followed Lorenzo, Edo and thanks to BUS's quote Matt Hugo! Don't follow any weather people - so now that should help keep me up to date! You don't need to follow me back because I generally chat rubbish 

Edited November 14, 2013 by over_the_rainbow

[over_the_rainbow]

lol Catch from what I can gather GFS has come on board and the 6Z is good, but the ECM ironically isn't quite as good this morning looking more cold and dry. 

 

How professional was that explanation? See, now I've cleared it all up for you all! 

Edited November 14, 2013 by over_the_rainbow

[Benvironment]

Made an emergency appointment this afternoon to get my winters fitted   Otherwise I won't be able to do so until next Friday.......and that might be too late!  :winky:

[BleakMidwinter]

I really need to see snow on the Pentlands from my window soon… it's been way too long! I keep humming the David Essex* song "Only a Winter's Tale" and can't watch the video until I've seen snow! Neeeed snaaawwww! Even if only on the tops and at a distance… but it's being all cold and sunny and nearly-nearly-nearly-winter-y and I want my snaw!!!*look - I'm female and nearly 45. It's the equivalent of that poster of Debbie Harry in a rugby shirt for all you guys, ok? 

[Hairy Celt]

Gosh. I really don't need reminding of Debbie Harry's warm front just now.  It's been a week of weather so far with mental gusts blowing stuff around, lots of blustery showers every day with bits of sleet & hail thrown in.  Oh, here comes one now. Glad I have a morning under cover for a change!

 

So how low will the snow fall & lie next week?

Edited November 14, 2013 by Hairy Celt

[BleakMidwinter]

Gosh. I really don't need reminding of Debbie Harry's warm front just now. 

Would you mind explaining to the ickle kiddiwinks about Debbie Harry's effect on all males in existence in the early 80s, please? :)Still bright and sunny here. Nippy and crisp and really rather lovely. Not as lovely as snaw would be...

[Ravelin]

So how low will the snow fall & lie next week?

 

OK, since I'm currently addicted to the model output thread I'll take a guesstimate at this. Assuming we're talking at low levels, not just on the bigger hills, snow falling currently looks most likely from early hours Tues, through Wed. As for actually hanging around on the ground, I'd say not for that long. It's November, the ground isn't that cold yet and we're looking at it being relatively mild tomorrow & Sat so no help there. Temps Tue & Wed, although low for the time of year aren't likely to stay sub-zero during the day from what I've seen. After that the models are a bit unsure but even if it does stay cold after Wed it looks more likely to be a dry cold than a wet cold.

 

Basically it's an appitiser, not the main course.

[Ravelin]

Would you mind explaining to the ickle kiddiwinks about Debbie Harry's effect on all males in existence in the early 80s, please?

 

Were there not largely 2 reasons...or should that be 2 large reasons? Not sure any more detail than that is appropriate on a family friendly forums such as this, and anyway a quick Google will provide adequate illustration.

[Highland Snow]

That's the snow tyres on again so now it will probably turn mild until March.

 

Anyone else fitted the old winter tyres and if so what? I got two fronts fitted for £170. They are Yokohama W Drive 205/55/16 V91 M+S (made in Japan).

[Highland Snow]

OK, since I'm currently addicted to the model output thread I'll take a guesstimate at this. Assuming we're talking at low levels, not just on the bigger hills, snow falling currently looks most likely from early hours Tues, through Wed. As for actually hanging around on the ground, I'd say not for that long. It's November, the ground isn't that cold yet and we're looking at it being relatively mild tomorrow & Sat so no help there. Temps Tue & Wed, although low for the time of year aren't likely to stay sub-zero during the day from what I've seen. After that the models are a bit unsure but even if it does stay cold after Wed it looks more likely to be a dry cold than a wet cold.

 

Basically it's an appitiser, not the main course.

 

If only the 850's were lower the chance of snow sticking below 300m would be greatly enhanced.

[Highland Snow]

Were there not largely 2 reasons...or should that be 2 large reasons? Not sure any more detail than that is appropriate on a family friendly forums such as this, and anyway a quick Google will provide adequate illustration.

 

 Is this the picture?

[LomondSnowstorm]

In fairness, I think most of my generation at least know who Debbie Harry is, if not quite the significance she had on guys in the 70s.

Anyway, slight issue (and one we really didn't have last March) is the lack of deep cold uppers to tap into. The northerly itself looks like bringing circa -8 uppers to our shores but after that any of the 'cobra run' setups that I've seen have involved a flow from the continent which is barely any colder than Scotland. Thus, the ECM setup of a decent northerly which is followed by a cold high sitting over us is for me the best option in terms of overall weather enjoyment and actually also in terms of chances of decent cold. 4C with endless Stratocumulus isn't my idea of fun, so a bitter but dry holding pattern while Eurasia gradually cools is for me a better bet than something synoptically impressive but actually pretty tame (unless we can get proper troughing into Scandinavia). Low heights over Europe are the key - if we keep those it really doesn't matter how close the high gets to sinking because it won't actually sink.

[Benvironment]

Excitement building at the prospect of it getting colder

 

You really can't beat Scotland in winter so here's a quick video to follow up the photo that Netweather kindly shared on their Facebook page yesterday.  Last week I got three wonderful snowy walks in Torridon but this one, on Sunday just gone, was probably the highlight:

 

 

[Buriedundersnow]

couple of nice GEFS anomalies charts from the 0z and 6z posted by MATT HUGO on twitter

 

 

also goes to show the trouble the GEFS is having with placing the high pressure

[Ravelin]

You really can't beat Scotland in winter so here's a quick video to follow up the photo that Netweather kindly shared on their Facebook page yesterday.  Last week I got three wonderful snowy walks in Torridon but this one, on Sunday just gone, was probably the highlight:

 

 

Fabulous views, but you're braver than me going over the Horns in snow.

[Benvironment]

Fabulous views, but you're braver than me going over the Horns in snow.

 

Hmm, I was in two minds about it.  Because I had to drive home afterwards I didn't really want a huge day in the hills, so initially thought I'd go only as far as the first horn.  That would still have been a great walk with grand views.....but once up there with Sgurr Mhor rearing up ahead I just couldn't resist

 

 

That said, clambering over those pinnacles under conditions like that is probably at the limit of what I feel comfortable with without ropes and other people with me.

[Shadow]

Amazing views.  I live in Lochcarron which is near Torridon I have been up the hills but not quite as far as you have.  Thanks for sharing.