scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[edo]

I thought we had binned the GFS

Certainly going to be a lot of nowcasting in the next 48 hours....will the theme of last years winter continue being ..... elevation elevation elevation

Edited November 18, 2013 by edodfc

[blitzen]

I think too that it is best to leave well alone. Sometimes the  MOD leads to the banter on here, which we may loose if separated and would perhaps stop us conveying our heart felt feelings immediately to those south of the border?

 

 

 

 â€¦so I like the single-thread mixture, even if it means I have to scroll through a lot. 

[blitzen]

.will the theme of last years winter continue being ..... elevation elevation elevation

 

we all know where that got you!

[Hairy Celt]

Ok....   Democracy wins!

 

or even...

Edited November 18, 2013 by Hairy Celt

[101_North]

....will the theme of last years winter continue being ..... elevation elevation elevation

 

I'd take a repeat of last winter every winter :-)

 

Great to be back on here - looking forward to the season ahead :-)

 

101

[LomondSnowstorm]

The good thing though is that with the low held further east the colder air comes back at us more quickly. The worst solution would be a middle ground where the low is big enough and east enough to give an all rain event tomorrow night but not far enough east to allow the cold uppers to get back in.

[Ravelin]

Morning all from a bright and sunny Aberdeenshire (yet again).

 

Looking through various web-based weather forecasts for tomorrow and what'd you know, I'm none the wiser as to if or when I'm likely to see snow. Summary below,

 

BBC/Met Office - Snow showers starting in early hours of Tuesday but dying out by around noon.

 

uk.weather.com - Dry overnight but snow showers arriving around 5pm Tuesday, then turning back to rain after a couple of hours.

 

yr.no - Similar to uk.weather.com but slightly later start to the snow/rain and shorter lived before becoming dry.

 

netweather.tv - Absolutely zero precipitation forecast tonight and Tuesday.

 

So there you have it. I know precipitation details are hard to forecast, and snow even more so, especially as marginal an event as this, but that's 3 completely different solutions for the next 36hrs. I'm off to read my copy of the Daily Express cos at least they'll promise me 3ft of snow.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Ravelin

[blitzen]

Another update for those interested:

 

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/ukiresnowcoldweatherwarningssnowaccumulationsecmverycoldlatenovember2013/

[Sunny Leith]

Possible we could catch some back-end stuff LS ?

 

The good thing though is that with the low held further east the colder air comes back at us more quickly. The worst solution would be a middle ground where the low is big enough and east enough to give an all rain event tomorrow night but not far enough east to allow the cold uppers to get back in.

[GulberwickWeather]

Afternoon all. Looking forward to the first wintry spell. Looks like we may see some white stuff overnight up here

[LomondSnowstorm]

Possible we could catch some back-end stuff LS ?

 

Yeah, possible, provided the cold air undercuts quickly enough. Behind the front we're looking at a pretty complex setup with a shower northerly combined with essentially at Atlantic occlusion moving slowly southeastwards, so all in all it's a very messy setup:

[Jo Farrow]

Morning all from a bright and sunny Aberdeenshire (yet again).

 

Looking through various web-based weather forecasts for tomorrow and what'd you know, I'm none the wiser as to if or when I'm likely to see snow. Summary below,

 

BBC/Met Office - Snow showers starting in early hours of Tuesday but dying out by around noon.

 

uk.weather.com - Dry overnight but snow showers arriving around 5pm Tuesday, then turning back to rain after a couple of hours.

 

yr.no - Similar to uk.weather.com but slightly later start to the snow/rain and shorter lived before becoming dry.

 

netweather.tv - Absolutely zero precipitation forecast tonight and Tuesday.

 

So there you have it. I know precipitation details are hard to forecast, and snow even more so, especially as marginal an event as this, but that's 3 completely different solutions for the next 36hrs. I'm off to read my copy of the Daily Express cos at least they'll promise me 3ft of snow.

Ah you might see some snow showers early Tues ( and I mean before dawn) bit of a feed down to the A96 in the morning, I'll point them out on STV North today obviously I cannae compete with the Express

[aggy]

Huge temperature drop in the last hour went from fairly comfortable to icy cold brrrrrrrrrrrr

[Buriedundersnow]

Huge temperature drop in the last hour went from fairly comfortable to icy cold brrrrrrrrrrrr

 

yip its defo a heating on kind of day today.

[BleakMidwinter]

I'm considering setting an alarm for 5 or 5.30 tomorrow morning… if it snows before dawn in Suburban South Embra and I sleep through it, I shall weep piteously… If it's coming down to elevation, then S.S.Embra is stuffed again - but there's the faint chance…. Jings, it's like watching Scotland play the All-Blacks - you know how it's gonna go, but there's just always that chance, that memory of the time when…!

[Buriedundersnow]

got a little project for someone who is clued up with weather history.

 

what years/months did we have memorable cold spells in the UK and roughly when they start n finish.

 

EDIT: looking only for ones within model range so nothing before there are any charts.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Hairy Celt]

Jeez it's cold out there, a real wintery feel with a chill breeze & blue sky.

 

WHERE'S MA SNAW???

[NUT]

It's such a clear, sunny day out there and with cold air in place there's only 1 way the temperatures can go.................down!

[A Winter's Tale]

Lovely, cold, clear and sunny winter's day with a few a small showers. If any shower that arrives here from now on should be wintry but my only concern is the lack of precipitation. It seems like the majority of the showers will be around the W and N Highlands and SW Scotland (maybe a few coming off the Moray Firth) so fingers crossed for more widespread shower activity. Tomorrow should be a colder day (possibly the first sub 5C max here and in some places the maximum could struggle to get above freezing). Less in the way of shower activity away from the NW and NE. Later, an area of low pressure will move into the NW and sweep south. Fingers crossed it will produce front-edge snowfall for most of us but perhaps our best chance could be the back of the cold front on Wednesday. It's messy but some areas (and certainly the high ground) will see snow and we are already in the first proper cold spell of the season with more winter weather ahead of us in the coming days. With regards to the models, expect anything to come up considering the lack of confidence in the outlook. But it is encouraging to see the ECM maintain the cold and blocked theme with the potential for something much more special. 

[Buriedundersnow]

Try this for a starter:

 

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1950_1974.htm

 

You'll need to click about a bit but you're intelligent enough that you won't need me to explain it to you

 

cracking wee site that and its good they colour code it for dummies like me

[lorenzo]

Afternoon NAE - what a messy picture this is... a real look oot the windae and see what is actually falling situation for some areas.

 

 

Great to see more folks re-appearing & Welcome to any of our new visitors over the next day or so.

 

Cracking sunset - time to watch those temps plummet..

 

New model thread just launched for the evening runs, as earlier things went a bit...

 

Here is a link to Fergie's latest thoughts from how the MOGREPS sees the next wee period of weather.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78461-model-output-discussion-131113/page-92#entry2838409

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 18, 2013 by lorenzo

[chemikal]

View from my office a few minutes ago. I'm in the Bridgeton area of Glasgow and that cloud is directly over my house which is 5 miles away. It is making its way towards East Kilbride. Temperature is starting to drop away. Should be an interesting night ahead.

[blitzen]

got a little project for someone who is clued up with weather history.

 

what years/months did we have memorable cold spells in the UK and roughly when they start n finish.

 

EDIT: looking only for ones within model range so nothing before there are any charts.

My favourite all timer was January 1984 BUS!  A whole month of snow on snow. It was up to my hips but I am only 4'10" but you get my (!)drift    You can get the charts on the archive thread and if I remember correctly, NO GOB in sight, but a polar vortex that will take your breath away!  Most of England dipped out, but Scotland really copped it. When you see headlines of 2010 being the worst winter in 100 years, they must be talking UK wide because it didn't even come close!  Have a look:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gfs;sess=

 

http://www.derbysulzers.com/snowb.html

Edited November 18, 2013 by Blitzen

[LomondSnowstorm]

My favourite all timer was January 1984 BUS!  A whole month of snow on snow. It was up to my hips but I am only 4'10" but you get my (!)drift    You can get the charts on the archive thread and if I remember correctly, NO GOB in sight, but a polar vortex that will take your breath away!  Most of England dipped out, but Scotland really copped it. When you see headlines of 2010 being the worst winter in 100 years, they must be talking UK wide because it didn't even come close!  Have a look:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gfs;sess=

 

http://www.derbysulzers.com/snowb.html

 

In terms of snowfall January 1984 was pretty exceptional by all accounts, although synoptically it was a completely different kettle of fish to the majority of 'classic' winters:

 

A very positive NAO with an uber-strong vortex centred over Greenland. Normally this would mean straight zonality but with Atlantic heights negatively tilted and a Russian High in place the jet was deflected south of the UK on a NW-SE trajectory. This is part of the reason I don't jump to the conclusion that zonality=mild because, while that's almost always true for southern England (barring reverse zonality) it becomes an increasingly weak link the further north you go. For northern Scotland the real key is having a northerly sourced airmass, be it Maritime, proper Arctic or (somewhat less so) continental, but even here Arctic northwesterlies can be pretty effective. Similar synoptics brought us the January 1993 Braer Storm and associated snowfall and a large number of December cold spells, most recently December 2011 which was pretty snowy for western Scotland.

[Sunny Leith]

I do love the kilted thread, always have.

 

And as always I'm ready to smile (again) through gritted-teeth (again) when SS and Catch report 200cms of level snow in their back-garden (again)