scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[Cheggers]

alright Ally welcome back.....I think thats just about everybody reported for duty........ although am still missing burntfishtroosers..... 

 

nice new profile pic in respect to OTR

Oh trust me he is lurking. 

I wonder what top end of M74 will be like on way back from Liverpool tomorrow night?

[blitzen]

Came out of the model thread just now as Steve Murr has said that the 18z is all wrong anyway.  The weird thing is that he's probably right.   It simply amazes me how he can out- think the models! Wish I had that talent. I have a hard enough job finding the Eastern Seaboard!   I think he is onto something and expects an outcome more like this evening's ECM.  If that did indeed turn out to be the case, then you better get the LJs looked out HC! Week after next would be enough to freeze your squirrel food off!

 

Edit: Hey SL2 - back for the annual punishment I see!

Edited November 17, 2013 by Blitzen

[Big Innes Madori]

Came out of the model thread just now as Steve Murr has said that the 18z is all wrong anyway.  The weird thing is that he's probably right.   It simply amazes me how he can out- think the models! Wish I had that talent. I have a hard enough job finding the Eastern Seaboard!   I think he is onto something and expects an outcome more like this evening's ECM.  If that did indeed turn out to be the case, then you better get the LJs looked out HC! Week after next would be enough to freeze your squirrel food off!

 

Edit: Hey SL2 - back for the annual punishment I see!

 

"amazes me how he can out- think the models"

 

Hi Blitzy,

SM did an excellent post earlier today in the MT, worth a read for everyone me thinks

 

Big Innes

 

 

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM is keen on some hefty GOB

 

This is 00z but it's not much different on the 12z from today:

 

17th Nov ECM GFS 8 10 Day Mean 00z.gif

 

Don't read too much into it but cross-polar heights...the polar vortex is getting squeezed on the ECM.

 

it does still look like we are in a GOB situation with that high pressure out to the east in russia so its GOB to get some really cold air in for me.

Edited November 17, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[blitzen]

 

 

 

"amazes me how he can out- think the models"

 

Hi Blitzy,

SM did an excellent post earlier today in the MT, worth a read for everyone me thinks

 

Big Innes

 

 

 

Evening BI. Yes, I saw it.  Certainly knows his stuff.

Edited November 17, 2013 by Blitzen

[Ravelin]

Been a nice enough couple fo days around here this weekend. Plenty of wind, just a little rain yesterday, plenty of sun and a bit of frost this morning.

 

Now I know the next few days aren't going to rival the same time 3 yrs ago i.e Nov 2010, but just to cheer everyone up here's a flavour of what we had around here then.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19210-kemnay-snow-1/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19211-kemnay-snow-2/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19212-kemnay-snow-3/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19213-kemnay-snow-4/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19214-kemnay-snow-5/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19215-kemnay-snow-6/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19216-kemnay-snow-7/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19217-kemnay-snow-8/

 

Looking at the pictures myself I still can't believe we had that much snow. We were digging the driveway out every morning and evening for days and were running out of places to put the snow! The buildup of snow on the roof was fun, as eventually it'd slide off in mini avalances and the house would shake (took down most of the guttering on just about all the houses). On more than one morning I found my car half burried in avalance debris. The snow on the roof above the garage was stubborn though and evetually it built up so much I was forced to "encourage" it to come down with a lot of prodding. As I did so the neigbour across the street was filming me just in case of a "you've been framed" moment, which thankfully never came.

 

Anyway, back to this week, here's to some streetlamp watching and some of us to see our first snowfall of winter 2013/14. Hopefully at some point this winter we can try to rival Nov 2010 again too.

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM is keen on some hefty GOB

 

This is 00z but it's not much different on the 12z from today:

 

17th Nov ECM GFS 8 10 Day Mean 00z.gif

 

Don't read too much into it but cross-polar heights...the polar vortex is getting squeezed on the ECM.

 

would hefty GOB not be

 

GOB 

[Hairy Celt]

I wish I could have a beer or two.

 

Perhaps you should just go for it in style... special brew / diamond white snakebites do the trick.

 

2nd thoughts DON'T - we need your analysis here! WTF is GOB tho?

 

Ok, Lorenzo, should I / could I start a poll on whether to split this thread into two?  I can't be alone in struggling to keep up with stuff when it gets busy.

Edited November 17, 2013 by Hairy Celt

[edo]

Edo are you weather station equipped for those all important Luncarty dew points?

 

ummmmmm sadly no...... my weather station budget got vired to changing my vehicle to a 7 seater following our surprise earlier this year.....even i found it hard to put up a case for the need to know luncarty dew points above transporting the family.... I am coming into a bit of disposable income in December so hopefully get a modest weather station at that point

[Hairy Celt]

ummmmmm sadly no...... my weather station budget got vired to changing my vehicle to a 7 seater following our surprise earlier this year.....even i found it hard to put up a case for the need to know luncarty dew points above transporting the family.... I am coming into a bit of disposable income in December so hopefully get a modest weather station at that point

 

You planning another??

[edo]

Perhaps you should just go for it in style... special brew / diamond white snakebites do the trick.

 

2nd thoughts DON'T - we need your analysis here! WTF is GOB tho?

 

Ok, Lorenzo, should I / could I start a poll on whether to split this thread into two?  I can't be alone in struggling to keep up with stuff when it gets busy.

 

I get what you are saying but I kinda like the one stop shop..... i guess you could have a scoish model thread but would just mean flicking between threads so pros and cons

[Hairy Celt]

I get what you are saying but I kinda like the one stop shop..... i guess you could have a scoish model thread but would just mean flicking between threads so pros and cons

 

Yeah... I use a laptop mainly so can have a browser with more than 1 tab open but I'm guessing some folk will be using tablets which may be different - guessing here, is that so?

[edo]

You planning another??

 

lol most certainly fu**ing no!!! then again i didnt plan the last 2......long story  

 

anyway the only 6 seater i know of is this so u can see why i went for 7 ......although the wife does joke we still have a spare seat 

[Buriedundersnow]

Perhaps you should just go for it in style... special brew / diamond white snakebites do the trick.

 

2nd thoughts DON'T - we need your analysis here! WTF is GOB tho?

 

Ok, Lorenzo, should I / could I start a poll on whether to split this thread into two?  I can't be alone in struggling to keep up with stuff when it gets busy.

 

cant even have any drink the now as on medication

 

GOB was coined by CATCH the other day cos I said Greenland or bust.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ok, a quick(ish) summary:

Monday 12pm - cold front will have moved through, leaving in its wake some scattered showers, uppers just starting to get good enough for snow with the dividing line roughly around the Highland/lowland boundary fault:

 

Coastal areas northwest of the line still might struggle in lighter precipitation but generally speaking 950s on the way down by this point:

 

Decent shower activity starting to build, with the skew-t for Lochinver in the NW highlands signalling cloud bases under 900hpa and up above 500hpa:

 

By 6pm the cold air will be starting to build in across central areas, with 950s just on the cusp of being good for low ground snowfall and probably enough within the heavier showers:

 

Even more impressive convection for Lochinver, not quite thundersnow but certainly enough for convection to develop widely across the northwest Highlands:

A similar story for the far northeast corner, where northwesterly winds will blow in showers off the Moray Firth:

To a lesser extent the same will be true further south, with showers managing to get into Galloway,Strathclyde and Argyll with ease up to about Harthill, but with not that much chance of showers making it further east (outwith organised troughing).

Accumulations are likely above 200m but may reach low ground further south, particularly between 5 and 10pm around the Firth of Clyde, but are likely to be slight i.e. no more than 1-2cm for low ground:

 

As the night progresses, the 'organic' convection will largely die back to the coasts, but a trough will move southeastwards across northern areas overnight, bringing an increased risk of more significant accumulations for the likes of Hairy Celt, Northern Rab and Northern Lights:

Uppers look good, particularly with the -10Cs moving in behind:

 

and 950hpas shouldn't cause much bother:

 

However, there is a risk at the immediate coast that the high SSTs combined with an onshore wind will push DPs above 0C (dreaded coastal modification), which is an issue moreso for Moray and the Aberdeenshire coast but also potentially in the Black Isle:

 

However, no such problems further south, other than perhaps air temperatures being above 0C when the trough is likely to hit:

 

The more concerning prospect is just that the trough moves too far east as the mid Atlantic high nudges in from the west, or that the Grampians 'eat' all the snow. A combination of these factors mean that the best chance of seeing wintriness south of the Angus hills is Edinburgh southeastwards, where the trough could still have enough power left to give the first snowfall and potentially the first lying snow of the season:

However, details on this are likely to change through the day tomorrow when I'll hopefully be putting out a wee paint map about it all.

I'm aware we still haven't got through Tuesday, when everything falls as snow until evening, but I've got to get to KB for 9am tomorrow to hand in my Physics hand-in so I'd probably be best calling it a night there.

In summary - snowfall from lunchtime onwards northwest of the Boundary Fault, accumulations likely during the evening when temperatures drop to near 0C for many parts west of Glasgow and exposed to a northwesterly wind, nothing *that* serious until the trough comes into play in the early hours of Tuesday and gives the potential for a few inches for inland northern parts including Inversnecky and NL's home patch, less marked southwest of the Cairngorms with the best chance of 'lowland' snowfall being north of the Tay or south of the Forth, moreso the further east you are, Paint to come tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

[edo]

Yeah... I use a laptop mainly so can have a browser with more than 1 tab open but I'm guessing some folk will be using tablets which may be different - guessing here, is that so?

 

you can have multiple tabs on a tablet aswell......I would happily embrace a model regional thread but i guess just more work for guys to moderate.....maybe we would all start toorping

[Hairy Celt]

lol most certainly fu**ing no!!! then again i didnt plan the last 2......long story

 

anyway the only 6 seater i know of is this so u can see why i went for 7 ......although the wife does joke we still have a spare seat 

 

Does look a bit kinda cack, the sort of thing you'd have to park round the corner.

 

As for 'long story' - yet another euphemism for a 'determinedly procreative shag'...

[edo]

im chuckling away here and the wife most keen to know what at..............best not tell her.......actually why is she still up.......oh no she must want ******

[lorenzo]

Not sure what would be the benefit of 2 regional threads, HC? Think it may dilute this thread a little as a point of reference? 

 

LS - fantastic post ! 

[Hairy Celt]

Not sure what would be the benefit of 2 regional threads, HC? Think it may dilute this thread a little as a point of reference? 

 

LS - fantastic post ! 

 

Well I may be in a minority here, but sometimes I come here for info - the model-related posts from you, BUS, LS and others - and other times for the craic, and when the posts are coming thick & fast, it can be hard to follow stuff, and I don't want to skip through (and likely ignore) several hours of posts, just to find one model-related post. Aah prob best to see how it work for this winter. 

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM is keen on some hefty GOB

 

This is 00z but it's not much different on the 12z from today:

 

17th Nov ECM GFS 8 10 Day Mean 00z.gif

 

Don't read too much into it but cross-polar heights...the polar vortex is getting squeezed on the ECM.

 

if you look at the last 2 of those charts the ECM wants to make the trough over Canada try and undercut the high pressure in the atlantic forcing it north into Greenland while continuing to drop the other trough south into the Europe and the other bonus of sliding the high over Russia further east.

 

looking pretty impressive lets just hope the ECM is on to something and is correct of course.

 

[blitzen]

Morning. 3.4c here with a slight breeze from the west and no frost. Another good ECM apparently but GFS still lost in the fog. UKMO good till 120 then differs at 144. Hopefully GFS will find its way but it niggles me that it continues to differ. Remember last year, ala THAT ECM?  GFS was out on its own and proved to be right eventually. Another day of ups and downs no doubt however, our short cold spell is ( naileded) whatever the outcome.

Edited November 18, 2013 by Blitzen

[LomondSnowstorm]

Having a read of the strat thread it does appear that my 'strong vortex for December' forecast is going to be tested to the absolute limit with wave 2 activity still showing up strongly on the ECM this morning, encouraging a split of the stratospheric vortex. Whether it can succeed in producing an SSW(that'd probably be early December at the very earliest I'd imagine, if not mid-late December if the first lot of wave breaking doesn't do it) is interesting, but either way there's still likely to be a fair amount of disruption to the shape and eventually the strength of the upper vortex in the next few weeks which could have a major effect at the surface in time. Meanwhile the ECM op has come out with its second consecutive run showing a Greenland high and -5C uppers are currently making their way towards Na h-Eileanan Iar - an unexpectedly dramatic start to the 13/14 netweather season.

[BleakMidwinter]

As someone who is still on a really steep learning curve re weather understanding, have to say I probably would never have felt comfortable enough to start asking questions about weather if there hadn't been the mixture of banter and science (and cat models) to make me feel I sort of got to know people… â€¦so I like the single-thread mixture, even if it means I have to scroll through a lot. 

[WillinGlossop]

Could be interesting in scotland come wednesday according to 6z gfs