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Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013


lorenzo

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Posted
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)

Beautiful morning, followed by cloudy afternoon, and now very dreich evening. Fog seems to be forming down in the village, just not very nice oot now. 

 

We maybe moving shortly, and further up a hill, so could be interesting few weeks to come.

 

PS... I wont mention the rugby. Posted Image

Edited by Cheggers
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Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl

You're joking? Is it the 17th as well for Mrs edodfc?

Might be an idea to warn Mrs Catch she's in a parallel regional universe and can expect to wake up one morning to having four children :)

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Nice dry November day here with sunny periods and only a moderate breeze after some showers overnight. Cows and calves in this afternoon, calves vaccinated for pneumonia and cows very happy to be in. If its not too wet tomorrow will lift another batch of neeps in preparation for a long winter. A bit overcast tonight and currently 4c

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

I see the 12z runs have really left us no better than we were earlier with regards to the long term prospects and we might be needing another day or two to see where we stand but there are still some promising signs from the ECM or UKMO will wait for the ECM mean to see where that sits before I decide just how we are sitting and to see if it still looks like it wants to sink the high or not.

 

with regards to the GFS this is a bit of a worry that it seems to be holding to a pattern and rolling with it which could be ominous for us as we cant just dismiss a model because it is crap as there is every chance it could be right (we will just have to wait and see and hope its wrong cos theres nothing good about it).

 

the furthest we can look just now is 96h with some confidence (apart from our shortwave) as this is the furthest all three models are in quite good agreement.

 

 

post-18233-0-65507100-1384717843_thumb.gpost-18233-0-10063400-1384717854_thumb.gpost-18233-0-00444200-1384717876_thumb.p

 

so in summary look no further than 96h

 

step backwards today but this may change tomorrow.

 

ECM and UKMO = BETTER

 

GFS = WORSE

 

long term prospects still to be decided hopefully a few more days and we will get some sort of idea.

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

looked through that thing about the spreads LORENZO and afraid I am no further along Posted Image

 

think I am gonna just print out some spread charts and take the mean and the ops from the same timeframes and just sit down with the charts and do some comparison work to see what I can work out from that then see where I stand

 

 

the one thing I did work out is it says its from hpa so pressure just still cant work out if its the spread from the op to use towards determining the mean or the spread on the mean but once I get them printed and can have them all laid out side by side I should beable to look at them better and try get a handle on it.

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
  • Weather Preferences: appropriately seasonal
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire

Having a look at the NAE and snaw still looking on the cards for the North East and Highlands. As ever from that angle though it won't reach us in Perth.

 

This is Tuesday morning - 

 

Posted Image

Edited by over_the_rainbow
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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

Might be an idea to warn Mrs Catch she's in a parallel regional universe and can expect to wake up one morning to having four children Posted Image

thats a parallel hell........ actually i don mean that....i had been grumpy recently at the kids for behaviour then i watched children in need....shed many a tear and been extra nice to the kids since :)

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

Having a look at the NAE and snaw still looking on the cards for the North East and Highlands. As ever from that angle though it won't reach us in Perth.

 

This is Tuesday morning - 

 

Posted Image

 

i would agree OTR but the wise owls on here do tell me if its gonna get thru then it will be in November...... to be honest id be happy just to see a couple of snow showers even if does no lie at all.... this early in the season anythings a bonus

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Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW :-D
  • Location: Perth, Scotland

Hi all

WOW just catching up on whats been happening since Friday and its like old times again, fingers crossed we'll all see some white stuff soon :)

Edited by Allyw12
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

i would agree OTR but the wise owls on here do tell me if its gonna get thru then it will be in November...... to be honest id be happy just to see a couple of snow showers even if does no lie at all.... this early in the season anythings a bonus

 

yes this is defo the time of year we would see anything make it over the hills and could even still into December if things are right and LS said earlier he is going to look into the skews so its really just a waiting game the now till we see what LS manages to come up with for us all and maybe will give us one of his nifty chances charts like he did last year

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

alright Ally welcome back.....I think thats just about everybody reported for duty........ although am still missing burntfishtroosers..... 

 

nice new profile pic in respect to OTR :)

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Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl

She woke up one morning and suddenly had three step-children, does that count? Posted Image

 

 

Strewth, well, I'm going to be checking behind doors and under beds very carefully tomorrow if this is a standard for all females connected to the Kilted thread! :o

It's much much nippier out there than it has been. I was out this afternoon with only two layers of sheep and could really have done with a third… 

Fingers crossed for some good lamp-post reports. I'd ay something intelligent about the charts but given that my response to comments the last couple of days about the hpas was to go, "oh yeah - I'd forgotten about them!" I don't think my contribution to Scottish Meteorological science is gonna get much beyond "it's much nippier out there today"...

Very unusual behaviour brother and sister sharing chair this evening with no hissing and fighting. Posted Image20131117_21285920131117_02.JPG

CAT MODELS SAY SNOW ON ITS WAY.

YAYY!!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

She woke up one morning and suddenly had three step-children, does that count? Posted Image

 

That low on Tuesday/Weds is an utter nightmare, pasting or soaking? Posted Image

 

i'm getting the feeling that its going to be a bit of a mixed bag and all dependant on elevation

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

one small thing I have noticed which is a good point for the long term outlook cold wise is the ECM ensemble mean for London has been hovering around just over 5c daytime max all the way along its runs and this mornings ensemble mean along the whole extended part of the range took about a 1c drop from where its been.

 

might be nothing and could go back but just a little thing to keep the spirits up about snow.

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

It's looking like an utter mess, all rain in some places further west, rain to snow possibly back to rain in other places. The charts might clear up a little in the next 24 to 48 hours though? Elevation defo important, a few hundred metres would be a distinct advantage.

 

some of the charts LS posted earlier did look good for us for snow hopefully they will stay the same or even give a small upgrade or two closer to the time.

 

i'm not holding out for anything here I might just have to take a drive to find my first snow of the season.

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Posted
  • Location: Perth (Huntingtowerfield, 3 miles West) asl 0m
  • Weather Preferences: A foggy and frosty morning with newly fallen pristine snow - Paradise!
  • Location: Perth (Huntingtowerfield, 3 miles West) asl 0m

alright Ally welcome back.....I think thats just about everybody reported for duty........ although am still missing burntfishtroosers..... 

 

nice new profile pic in respect to OTR Posted Image

Edo are you weather station equipped for those all important Luncarty dew points?

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

Very unusual behaviour brother and sister sharing chair this evening with no hissing and fighting. Posted Image20131117_21285920131117_02.JPG

CAT MODELS SAY SNOW ON ITS WAY.

 

Well that's a bit spooky. Our two black cats, brother & sister, are next to each other on the sofa (humans get the floor) this evening, which is so rare that we'd all commented on it.  However I think they may be trying a bit of reverse psychology on us as they hate snow with a vengeance as it makes birdy catching that much harder... and they don't like cold wet paws, poor little pussies.  I reckon you, NL, have a much better chance than us on Tuesday...

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

i'm getting the feeling that its going to be a bit of a mixed bag and all dependant on elevation

Gosh less of the doom & gloom eh!  LS has told us any ppn will be snow, ye of little faith!  Do you need a beer?

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

heres the ECM charts for 240h look northwest toward Greenland

 

post-18233-0-30202600-1384726705_thumb.gpost-18233-0-02978100-1384726706_thumb.gpost-18233-0-66832300-1384726706_thumb.g

 

some amount of spread and as both the op and the mean have low pressure moving around there then there must be a lot of higher pressure there in the ensembles

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Gosh less of the doom & gloom eh!  LS has told us any ppn will be snow, ye of little faith!  Do you need a beer?

Or a malt. Having one just now courtesy of one of our non farming neighbours after doing a favour for them last month.
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Gosh less of the doom & gloom eh!  LS has told us any ppn will be snow, ye of little faith!  Do you need a beer?

 

 

I wish I could have a beer or two.

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

I had a wine earlier - was offered a beer but turned it down! Too interested in reading about upcoming weather!

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