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Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013


lorenzo

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

excellent post AWT.... FI at the moment given the lack of agreement looking likeT120 although a case could be made to say T96

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

excellent post AWT.... FI at the moment given the lack of agreement looking likeT120 although a case could be made to say T96

In terms of details I'd put FI closer to +72 - after that this shortwave and associated warm sector are very tough to pin down so operational forecasting on Tuesday night into Wednesday is a bit of a nightmare. After that we have slightly more clarity of the larger scale picture with heights generally to our north/northeast and some variant of an easterly flow ranging from the potentially snowy to the dull and drizzly. After that, it becomes a bit tougher to call, but most likely cold and dry via high pressure situated close to Scotland.
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

BUS no apologies mate you post as much as you like....especially like the fact your getting all LS with using paint on the charts.....really helps to illustrate explanations!!

 

nearly 3 hrs since blitzy went over the front line....somebody send the marines into get her

 

ok will post away then Posted Image just don't want to be the one that everyones like 'oh no he's back' Posted Image Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

26260% chance of snow

 

post-18233-0-37263100-1384630734_thumb.g

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image Posted Image Posted ImagePosted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

if only it were true we would all be like

 

Posted Image Posted ImagePosted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

I will take those percentage chances :)

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

yeah that's how I usually do my posts I was meaning have a slide show in the one image so it flicks through without having to touch any keys once its there like if you click to open the image and it automatically runs through them itself?

Try these BUS, it's a GIF you are wanting to make.

 

http://picasion.com/

 

http://imgflip.com/gifgenerator

 

LS were you looking for NAE earlier ? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=200912201800&VAR=tmin&HH=24&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PANEL=0&WMO=

 

Also whilst I am at the links, found this random link for the Fax Charts http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/otherfax.shtml

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

Off to investigate the MT, Can't resist.

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Try these BUS, it's a GIF you are wanting to make.

 

http://picasion.com/

 

http://imgflip.com/gifgenerator

 

LS were you looking for NAE earlier ? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=200912201800&VAR=tmin&HH=24&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PANEL=0&WMO=

 

Also whilst I am at the links, found this random link for the Fax Charts http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/otherfax.shtml

 

Cheers, but it wasn't actually that, it was a site which (at least claims to) have one of the newer MO high-res model outputs, either UKV or MOGREPS. I'm not sure how genuine it was/is but it would be good to find it again - here it is:

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartsukmoukpcp.php

It's in the form of a slideshow although it could just be directly lifted off the MO's website.

Did you see Ian Fergusson's comments earlier RE how the BBC/MO website forecasts are generated compared to the tv forecasts? Intriguing. I always knew there was an incongruence there but I didn't realise it was because the websites just get 'fed' the raw data with no chief forecaster modification. Worth remembering that when people see arbitrary icon forecasts which don't match up with your expectationsPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Off to investigate the MT, Can't resist.

Posted Image

 

There's been so much binning of runs this evening that I doubt there's much left to look atPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Yeah saw Ian F comments, good to read as this answers a lot of discussion in the model discussion about TV discussion!

 

Also interesting to read of the projected Easterly influence, hope he drops another post in later on how they view the UKMO run, will heighten anticipation if less modified than previous evenings.  Would be great if more of their stuff was in public domain, especially now the tight airsed ECMWF have removed the free access to the ensembles and the sample page. Grrr.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

LS or LORENZO how do you read the spread charts on the GEFS is it against the MEAN or against the OPERATIONAL?

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

ECM mean late on is a belter

 

post-18233-0-51703600-1384634890_thumb.gpost-18233-0-35409800-1384634891_thumb.gpost-18233-0-72168000-1384634892_thumb.gpost-18233-0-94991100-1384635018_thumb.g

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: Near Falkirk, 130m ASL
  • Location: Near Falkirk, 130m ASL

Yeah saw Ian F comments, good to read as this answers a lot of discussion in the model discussion about TV discussion!

 

Also interesting to read of the projected Easterly influence, hope he drops another post in later on how they view the UKMO run, will heighten anticipation if less modified than previous evenings.  Would be great if more of their stuff was in public domain, especially now the tight airsed ECMWF have removed the free access to the ensembles and the sample page. Grrr.

 

Any link to Ian F's comments - or is it time to dive into the carnage of the model thread?

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

There are a few different spread charts around on meteociel some display difference in Dam or difference within ensembles. Blue Army is the best person to ask, he uses them a lot. My understanding is they are divergence from the mean. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Temperature%20at%20850hPa!Europe!192!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012011212!!/

 

The NAEFS aside from being the best verifying ensemble suite, is interesting for the selections on offer - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?ech=6&code=6&mode=0&map=&runpara=

 

You have Mode - minimum 10% , mediane and maximum 90%, which when selected present the charts in standard z500 style.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

This link is an interesting read which looks at how ensembles are perturbed, lots of heavy going physics in parts, if you skim through it there are some great points of interest. It discusses in the main part the ECM approach to ensembles.

http://www.elsevierscitech.com/emails/physics/climate/Ensemble_forecasting.pdf

 

or try here, saw forecaster link this earlier this week in the model thread, 

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/user_guide.pdf

Edited by lorenzo
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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

Carbon get yer erse in there.....everyone must serve their time and enter the MT now and again.......I think it was around page maybe 55 or so bit not sure as I actually have read quite a lot today and so could be mistaken

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

so if reading it right we are pretty much stuck on to have high pressure to our north then and looking at the spread chart next to the mean the areas most up in the air are the LP systems around the north

 

post-18233-0-98268400-1384636904_thumb.ppost-18233-0-78354900-1384636958_thumb.ppost-18233-0-92064100-1384636776_thumb.g

 

and with the ECM mean beside aswell it looks to me like some of the GEFS might be closer to the ECM mean.

 

does that sound a right way to be looking at it or have I got it way wrong lol

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

This link is an interesting read which looks at how ensembles are perturbed, lots of heavy going physics in parts, if you skim through it there are some great points of interest. It discusses in the main part the ECM approach to ensembles.

http://www.elsevierscitech.com/emails/physics/climate/Ensemble_forecasting.pdf

 

or try here, saw forecaster link this earlier this week in the model thread, 

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/user_guide.pdf

 

cheers for the links but i'm afraid i'm not one of these people who can learn from reading things like that they tend to burst ma brain i'm more of a trial and error learner as you probably have picked up on from some of my posts.

 

think i'll just dingy the spreads the now till I get a little more of a handle on them.

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

On the subject of spreads and the conclusions drawn from the 12z ECM run, grabbed this GIF, this runs from 72-144 hrs, and you can see the increasing uncertainty in the solution as the run develops,

 

post-7292-0-88099200-1384637947_thumb.gi

 

This as alluded to determined by the modelling of the Jet and the different ways the models deal with the split flow and how much energy goes North and how much digs south.

post-7292-0-64254700-1384638053_thumb.pn

 

The ECM mean indeed is looking very good this evening.

post-7292-0-75077100-1384638168_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-54169400-1384638176_thumb.pn

 

Another way I find useful is reading the ensembles for different parts of Europe via this link, just click the map.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1

 

Although tonight somewhere in Scotland has a 26,245 % chance of Snow !!!

post-7292-0-46237900-1384638130_thumb.gi

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

beat that with my location 26,260%

 

post-18233-0-81751200-1384638730_thumb.g

 

GEFS defo losing the plot these days

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Knew there was a NetWx guide 'planked' somewhere.

 

This is much easier to follow than the hardcore stuff earlier.

 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ClkAme7CLzViv51_1r8KQINHoendcxYbHJh2Ya2zQzI/edit?hl=en

Edited by lorenzo
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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

Quality BUS....Dingy lo!!l thought that was just a Dundee expression.... We do learn a lot here and like u I take it in more with charts and descriptions and explanations here rather than just purely reading for myself....

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Knew there was a NetWx guide 'planked' somewhere.

 

This is much easier to follow than the hardcore stuff earlier.

 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ClkAme7CLzViv51_1r8KQINHoendcxYbHJh2Ya2zQzI/edit?hl=en

 

cheers that one looks better have saved it to favourites and will give it a read over

 

 

Quality BUS....Dingy lo!!l thought that was just a Dundee expression.... We do learn a lot here and like u I take it in more with charts and descriptions and explanations here rather than just purely reading for myself....

 

nah its widely used.

 

I have a lot of expressions from all over have lived quite a few places in my lifetime.

 

yeah I am one of these people if someone tells me something or shows me I can usually remember but when it comes to reading by the time I get to the bottom of the page I have forgot the top Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

waiting for the toys going in the model thread.

 

bet they wont have learnt from all week that the PUB RUN has been a total crap chute.

 

EDIT: looks like they have learnt that place is dead the night

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

temps dropping pretty quick out there tonight.

 

managed to find a weather station in stirling on twitter its not that far away so should be pretty close to what it is here

 

Stirling Weather â€@StirlingWeather 19s

23:00 16/11 T= 6.2c (H11.8c/L6.2c) W=2.3mph NNW RainLastHr=0.0mm P=1027.64mb Rising ,12-24HrsTime= Settled fine

 

temps have been dropping 1c steadily every hour so should be getting a frost tonight.

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