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Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013


lorenzo

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

Morning all! It's gey breezy up here the noo, nae rain though, which can only be a good thing. It's so mild though, I was flinging the duvet off last night in an effort to cool down to a reasonable temperature! My in-built, middle aged central heating system was working overtime! I'm sure there are some ladies of a certain age on here who will understand what I mean! Anyhoo, it won't be mild for long and we are off tae Inversneck tomorrow to do the dreaded Xmas shopping. By then end of day tomorrow I reckon we will both be Posted Image Posted Image . I fully expect to be driving home through six foot drifts on Monday afternoon and Skye will be cut off for weeks. We will all have to go on starvation diets as our food will run out and the Red Cross will have to drop food parcels to all of the Highlands. ( Please remember we don't do white bread or microwave meals and prefer red wine to white. A bottle of Grouse wouldn't go amiss....for medicinal purposes only, you understand. Don't forget some cat food either! ) Or maybe we'll just have the merest dusting on the mountain tops. Those who have a better idea of where and how much snow will fall....answers on a postcard please!

 

PS...I refuse to go into the Model Thread. Looks like the toys are half way to Greenland by now!Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

Anyone else fancy splitting our regional thread into two? One for serious model stuff, the other for the rest of us...?  Just that sometimes I want to see what the weather's up to, other times I just want to share the craic....

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

If you add the images side by side rather than heading vertically down the page, they open and when open the arrow key appears to allow you to move onto the next image.

 

 

yeah that's how I usually do my posts I was meaning have a slide show in the one image so it flicks through without having to touch any keys once its there like if you click to open the image and it automatically runs through them itself?

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

just trying something here to see if it works

 

post-18233-0-52080000-1384608092_thumb.gpost-18233-0-16011700-1384608093_thumb.gpost-18233-0-05414600-1384608094_thumb.gpost-18233-0-68604300-1384608094_thumb.gpost-18233-0-41183000-1384608095_thumb.gpost-18233-0-11597300-1384608096_thumb.gpost-18233-0-87011000-1384608096_thumb.gpost-18233-0-61520900-1384608097_thumb.gpost-18233-0-40707200-1384608098_thumb.g

 

don't think it will work but on plus point I have found out how to upload several images at once and that will do me well in the future didn't know you could upload loads of images in one go.

 

anyway this is the last 9 ensembles from the ECM for comparison if anyone is interested

 

should probably explain as well that I was wanting to find out how to post slide shows as was going to make up 09 and 10 slide shows of the cold for posting for us to have a look at

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Anyone else fancy splitting our regional thread into two? One for serious model stuff, the other for the rest of us...?  Just that sometimes I want to see what the weather's up to, other times I just want to share the craic....

 

don't know if we would be able to do that they have talked about it in other threads and nothing happens

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

post-18233-0-12542100-1384610704_thumb.p

 

bbbbrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!  Posted Image

 

continent cooling aswell

 

norm temps

 

post-18233-0-82232900-1384610720_thumb.p

 

forecast temps

 

post-18233-0-35183100-1384610721_thumb.p

 

could still do with western Russia cooling down more though

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

NASA HIGH RES has us under two pushes of cold air from the north in the next 5 days

 

PRESSURE

 

post-18233-0-90429700-1384613255_thumb.ppost-18233-0-61720000-1384613256_thumb.ppost-18233-0-28440000-1384613257_thumb.ppost-18233-0-16557400-1384613258_thumb.ppost-18233-0-87926500-1384613258_thumb.ppost-18233-0-57534400-1384613259_thumb.ppost-18233-0-18064400-1384613260_thumb.ppost-18233-0-70484900-1384613260_thumb.ppost-18233-0-30705100-1384613277_thumb.ppost-18233-0-99006900-1384613277_thumb.ppost-18233-0-71043100-1384613278_thumb.ppost-18233-0-49667500-1384613279_thumb.ppost-18233-0-51874600-1384613280_thumb.p

 

850's

 

post-18233-0-19344400-1384613281_thumb.ppost-18233-0-75768300-1384613281_thumb.ppost-18233-0-36300400-1384613282_thumb.ppost-18233-0-99681400-1384613302_thumb.ppost-18233-0-76074100-1384613303_thumb.ppost-18233-0-49530300-1384613304_thumb.ppost-18233-0-65327000-1384613305_thumb.ppost-18233-0-33142700-1384613306_thumb.ppost-18233-0-95412400-1384613306_thumb.ppost-18233-0-72054200-1384613307_thumb.ppost-18233-0-46075000-1384613308_thumb.ppost-18233-0-61052600-1384613309_thumb.ppost-18233-0-68898500-1384613310_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

even has some quite good looking snow chances in 4 days

 

post-18233-0-28476600-1384613859_thumb.ppost-18233-0-14174600-1384613860_thumb.ppost-18233-0-85719700-1384613860_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Lovely. Looks like I'm going to get my wish BUS.  According to John Holmes in the model thread,  the cold air looks like hanging around through the beginning of December which should help things along a lot! Europe too!

Edited by Blitzen
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

ECM showing similar to the NASA with this set up though its going to be if we can get the uppers etc right and obviously what makes it over the hills.

 

will see what develops closer to the timeframe

 

post-18233-0-56582900-1384615442_thumb.ppost-18233-0-19297000-1384615443_thumb.ppost-18233-0-88364000-1384615443_thumb.p

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Got an hour or so to kill before I start tea so........I'm going in folks!   Wonder if they will get this?:

 

post-1989-0-21616500-1384615555_thumb.jp

 

or this?:

 

post-1989-0-63294900-1384615612.jpg

 

Posted Image

Edited by Blitzen
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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

I'll do an update post the 12Zs but we have a rather interesting situation on Tuesday night into Wednesday with the Atlantic trying to push in against our newly established cold pool. What this will bring and whether cold uppers will return behind it is very much up in the air at the moment so I'm hoping we get some clarity but depending on the timing that's where the major snow risk for most central areas will come into play. However, as Lorenzo pointed out we do have some troughs in the flow too which could also deliver, particularly early on Tuesday as the cold air really digs in. One of the most complex northerly 'toppler' setups I've ever seen and somewhat reminiscent of January last year when the cold couldn't decide whether it was coming or going. At the surface of course it looks like remaining cold for a long time to come but as ever snowfall is a different kettle of fish, so as ever it's going to come down to nowcasting. A few hints on what to remember:

NMM is decent with precipitation but tends to overestimate coastal modification like its parent model the GFS

NAE is sketchier all round (does anyone have the link to that site which shows what appears to be the UKV model?) but useful for things like the 950hpas

yr.no is a class act and shows the ECM in high resolution, but wundermap also shows something which appears to be a higher resolution version of the ECM

This site gives you the global NMM which is, I believe, a less UK specialised version of Netweather's NMM, although the two often have quite different outputs http://www.meteocenter.eu/WRF-forecast/NW/North-West-Europe.html

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

thought I would add these in heres yestardays video from gavsweathervids and a few good model updates for next month

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1M5hUYF_aNw#t=597

 

and todays week ahead forecast

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLOgSaFlqX0#t=408

 

sorry for going a bit mental Posted Image with the posts today I just cant help myself when theres a chance of COLD and SNOW in the forecasts Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

cheers LS I had to get a new computer and lost all my favourites and couldn't find that site again Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

right usually not looking at GFS too much as due to last year don't rate it too highly but it has gave us a peek at what we will need if we see heights push toward Scandinavia and even though it doesn't come off right in the run it would have potential if this is the road we went down so I have done a little paint

 

first look toward the black arrow to the bottom right and notice we have a LP that stops the highs from linking up(we want to see this) as you can then see from the red arrows this allows the cold air into western Russia and Europe which would cool things down considerably.

 

the rest is what I would like to see after with the yellow arrow on the low pressure over Greenland which we would want to ride over the high taking the PV with it sinking it into Europe and western Russia and hopefully this would then open up Greenland for either high pressure to get an attempt at moving into Greenland or to our north.

 

post-18233-0-11109500-1384620573_thumb.p

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

UKMO comes out with an utter peach of a run:

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

At +120 we're looking at uppers still at around -8C so the risk of snowfall, plus the shortwave at circa +84 (Tuesday night) is significantly smaller, further south and better positioned which would significantly reduce the warm sector in extent and would give an increased risk of snowfall. Very much looking forward to the fax charts tonight and I'll take a closer look at the NMM 6 (the very high res NMM) this evening once Monday afternoon comes into play.

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

BUS no apologies mate you post as much as you like....especially like the fact your getting all LS with using paint on the charts.....really helps to illustrate explanations!!

 

nearly 3 hrs since blitzy went over the front line....somebody send the marines into get her

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

tension in MT as ECM rolls out.... uppers still look ok TuesdayPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Another fine very windy day with a high of 10c.Putting electric fences up in the neep field all day in readiness for cows coming in. Suffering a bit of facial wind burn tonight but keen to get outside jobs wrapped up this weekend in good weather as walking in dusty fields beats walking on mud or ice.

Hearing about a few private water supplies running dry in this area so a dry winter is not needed

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

some say ECM like GFS and UKMO is on its own.....others say it is more like the UKMO....... in other words all is normal in the MT

 

a nice easterly into the cold pooling off to the east here would be potentially tasty Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

 

 

nearly 3 hrs since blitzy went over the front line....somebody send the marines into get her

I survived!.....So much so that I've gone in for more! Depending on the ECM,  I may not get out alive this time though!

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

What a dramatic 36hrs it has been for the models with dramatic variations from day to day, run to run and model to model. Some of the models are struggling with subtle complications (at quite reliable time frames) and such small details have major implications on evolving synoptics and, inevitably, the mood in the MT. But putting aside the great swings in the output the bottom line is (and has been) for an early cold blast during the first part of the week (and securing 2013 a place along with 2010, 2005, 2001... as Novembers with notable spells of winter weather) and for the rest of the week it looks fairly cold (at least at the surface). High pressure looks likely to end up close to us (the implications on our weather is varied, but generally cold for the time of year). If the models can't handle important details within 120hrs then I would advise against buying exactly what the models do with the synoptics later this week. The door is still open for high pressure to migrate to Greenland but no one can know for sure if or when this happens because of so many factors such as atlantic lows, the strength or positioning of the PV and countless other things. You never know, this week or so could be a precursor to something special but we should be more than pleased at the weather we have infront of us next week and the interest there currently is in the models.

 

Sub -5C uppers look set to arrive and sink south during Monday with an increasing risk of wintry precipitation to lower levels and it would be great if the snow can visit all of us at some stage during the week. Like every year NAE charts, NMM, radar, Fax charts and lamp posts will be in use during the spell. It will be fascinating to see the sort and nature of features appearing on the fax charts and how good the convection will be. Then, later on Tuesday we have a wee feature moving in off the atlantic and at the moment, it looks like this at least will bring snow on its leading edge to many areas but with a few adjustments this could end up being a fairly widespread and significant snow event.

 

Let's see what the ECM brings. BRACE YOURSELVES! 

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

I survived!.....So much so that I've gone in for more! Depending on the ECM,  I may not get out alive this time though!

faf...... its panto season............. gonnae no post aboot how the ECM looks till the ecm is finished even though im posting aboot the ECM...um no im gonna post aboot it and theres nothing you can do aboot it because...well just because

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