scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[Buriedundersnow]

would be good to see some snow next week personally I wasn't holding out much hope as northerlies tend to be crap here with the highlands cutting everything off before it gets here but I suppose in November theres always a chance of something managing to make its way over if it was into winter theres no chance unless its a front.

[edo]

Absolutely doctor I too would forego 2 months for that type of weather....I'm not greedy though 3 or 4 weekends of sledging with the kids and I will be happy

[edo]

Interesting........Why earlier in winter would any snow have more chance reaching the central belt than later in the winter?

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'd noticed that about the 500Temps too, didn't want to say much about it as it never seems to happen, although I couldn't resist mentioning them earlier on. One of these days we'll see a proper PL or two, in full glory on radar and satellite pics.

I felt I had to do the honour since Mondy/BFT isn't around at the moment

The flow does kink from time to time so we'll see what happens. Fronts are only any use if they have occluded, you'll never get much from a warm or cold front as they are either too warm for snow or move too quickly to leave much. I have enough painful memories of warm sectors followed by cold fronts rattling through to know this too well.

Kinks in the flow are pretty good (unless you're called Stewart Stevenson sadly), troughs can be decent as well depending on the topography, I might have to dig out some fax charts from the northerlies than went right in past years to say whether it was the cold front or just troughs embedded in the flow.

 

Interesting........Why earlier in winter would any snow have more chance reaching the central belt than later in the winter?

Basically, convection is enhanced because SSTs are 4-5C greater than they are later in the winter. It's not specific to northerlies and in fact it's why the November 2010 easterly was so exceptionally brilliant (and why the Great Lakes get most of their snowfall in November/December before the lakes freeze up) but it does help to get it over the Grampians.

[Buriedundersnow]

its like when we are in summer we can have showers still build over land where in winter they die out coming over land but we haven't fully run out of summer or autumn juice yet so showers can still go from one side of the country to the other but if you look at last winter later on in the season there was little chance of that happening

[Buriedundersnow]

right what do we all think our lowest temp will be for our area and what do we think the lowest in Scotland will be.

 

 

I think -17 here and close to -30 somewhere

 

little low I know but I want a spectacular winter

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

If auld ptotos are allowed...

 

 

Couple of miles north of here (carr-bridge) 1978.

 

I was two.

[Buriedundersnow]

wonder how long the bloke was stuck in the gritter what a vehicle to get stuck in snow with

[A Winter's Tale]

March this year had a mean below 2C and there's a possibility that November could have a sub 3C mean. Since records began this has only happened 5 times.

[Buriedundersnow]

18z ensemble has me up to 80% snow chance on Monday evening

 

[mardatha]

.....Off oot to shops to get in more sweeties today. Siege mode!

[BleakMidwinter]

 

 two days after the verification date of that chart we were staring down the barrel of an exceptional cold spell:

 

 

 

This is just one of the finest sentences I've read in here… yes please, can we have that again?!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Not that much to report in the way of short term changes this morning, GFS wants to hold its shortwave further north thereby giving us a shot at the prize of proper frontal snow (as much as 4-6 inches possible inland) but these things usually flip around and even if we don't get this we're compensated with lower uppers and convective stuff instead. Longer term the UKMO has decided to come onboard for the northeasterly while the GFS is a bit less keen and the ECM goes a bit mental as it tries to sink the high then decides it wants another go at a northerly after all. ECM ensembles look almost identical to 12 hours ago though, so I think ultimately we're not in any better or worse position than yesterday, but it's going to be a few days before Thursday onwards gets properly resolved. Fortunately, we don't even need to worry about that yet because we've got a good enough cold spell lined up next week as it is, and that's mostly what we should focus on until the longer term becomes clearer.

[BleakMidwinter]

lol they could form a support group................. the irony is she thinks this is pointless whilst her activity of choice is reading out statuses on facebook to me of people i do not know.......

Jings, I'm glad that, between seasons, I replaced last winter's Kent-based chap with a much improved updated version in the Midlands who not only properly appreciates snow and ice, but also is starting to ask interested questions about why a Greenie high means different weather from a Scandi high… 

Problem is, I'm going to have to sharpen up my meteorological comprehension if I'm going to answer his questions!

 

[BleakMidwinter]

 

 

Basically, convection is enhanced because SSTs are 4-5C greater than they are later in the winter. It's not specific to northerlies and in fact it's why the November 2010 easterly was so exceptionally brilliant (and why the Great Lakes get most of their snowfall in November/December before the lakes freeze up) but it does help to get it over the Grampians.

Ahhhh! THANKYOU! I hadn't understood that previously… the LS Met-translate service works well!

[Ross B]

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Sunday dry with some sunshine and lighter winds. A few showers on Monday, turning wintry on high ground. Tuesday very cold, with scattered snow showers

 

 

 

 

For longer term prospects, I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that December will probably be the coldest and snowiest winter month on record since I'll be out of the country after the first week... looking possible so I would use that factor in any forecasts   (I'd be mad if I wasn't going to Canada for a bit!  )

Edited November 15, 2013 by Ross B

[Ravelin]

Not that much to report in the way of short term changes this morning, GFS wants to hold its shortwave further north thereby giving us a shot at the prize of proper frontal snow (as much as 4-6 inches possible inland) but these things usually flip around and even if we don't get this we're compensated with lower uppers and convective stuff instead. Longer term the UKMO has decided to come onboard for the northeasterly while the GFS is a bit less keen and the ECM goes a bit mental as it tries to sink the high then decides it wants another go at a northerly after all. ECM ensembles look almost identical to 12 hours ago though, so I think ultimately we're not in any better or worse position than yesterday, but it's going to be a few days before Thursday onwards gets properly resolved. Fortunately, we don't even need to worry about that yet because we've got a good enough cold spell lined up next week as it is, and that's mostly what we should focus on until the longer term becomes clearer.

 

Great summary. Some people on the Model Thread are too obsessed with what's shown in 6-7 days time rather than preparing to sit back and enjoy what's going to happen in 4-5 days time. Having said that, some of the posted charts from the GFS FI are just crazy cold and just for once it'd be nice to see something like that verify.

 

I'll really need to post some of the pictures I took of our garden and street from 2010. I was looking at them the other day and frankly I find it difficult to believe there was really that much snow even though I was out every morning shoveling it for what seems like weeks!

 

This mornings weather report - dry, 3C at 8am, sheet of medium level white cloud with just the odd bit of blue peeking through, slight breeze.

 

In preparation for next week I need to get the garage cleared of junk, mainly excess cardboard, so that we can get the wife's car under cover.

[GoldenJackel]

Do I smell snow on the horizon!?

[Hairy Celt]

Gawd, can't say I fancy those steep slopes in slush and ice.  What a savage introduction!

 

In other news, beautiful sunset here in Fife.  Nice and still.  It has that wintry feel about it.

The two guys I was with were much more experienced, one was a mountain rescue team member. It was pretty brutal hard work but worth it.  I'll have to have a look in the attic for the old Truprint snaps!

[cscrim]

6 months away from here and things have not changed in the madness thread. Will they ever learn?

Looking forward to our first of hopefully many cold blasts. Really cannot complain with winter still a couple of weeks away. Must admit though the thought of scraping the car at 5:30 each morning dampens enthusiasm ever so slightly.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

6 months away from here and things have not changed in the madness thread. Will they ever learn?

Looking forward to our first of hopefully many cold blasts. Really cannot complain with winter still a couple of weeks away. Must admit though the thought of scraping the car at 5:30 each morning dampens enthusiasm ever so slightly.

 

Try this stuff. Changes the wettability of glass to make it water repellent. You often don't even need wipers in rain; just runs off.

 

Also makes it much easier to get frost off in my experience.

 

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/accessories-tyres/44857/rain-x?utm_source=taboola-internal

 

[Big Innes Madori]

Aye, there's no point worrying about winning the £1million jackpot when we're looking good to win the £25,000 prize in the next seven days. The charts are somewhat divergent over what happens down the line:

 

15th Nov ECM GFS 8 10 Day Mean 00z.gif

 

Everyone needs to go with the (500hpa) flow...(please tell me that at least one of you groaned when you read that )

Thanks JH (smiley)

Big Innes

Grrrr, cannae get mah fkn smilies tae wurk these days!

Edited November 15, 2013 by Big Innes Madori

[Buriedundersnow]

thought I would drop this in here I saw it in the winter thread.

 

shows theres still signs for height rises to our north west.

 

[blitzen]

Ooooo....what a grey day! 9.2c here currently, but feels colder with a damp wind that goes right through you. So, we still appear to be on track for the cold next week then? Will just pop over to the MOD for a look, (with a handful of Prozac and Kwells!)

 

[Ravelin]

 So, we still appear to be on track for the cold next week then? Will just pop over to the MOD for a look, (with a handful of Prozac and Kwells!)

 

 

Don't do it without wearing a crash helmet to protect you from the flying toys! One less than impressive GFS run and the Samaritans will be having to double up the staff on call tonight. Can't even wait until the run is complete before some are proclaiming doom and gloom. You get the distinct impression that those quickest to moan about a possible downgrade in snow potential (remembering it's still NOVEMBER) would be the first to moan that it's too cold & snowy if one of the 'eyecandy' charts of recent FI runs did verify. Highly amusing really.