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Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013


lorenzo

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Wow, bit of an epic 24 hours of model runs, looking at some of these charts is eye watering in the midst of a proper industrial 2 day hangover. Too old for mid week partying til 4am !

 

Insane Control Run. A real box of frogs.

Posted Imagegefs_z500anom_c_nh_61.pngPosted Imagegensnh-0-1-360.png

 

This is a pleasure to see at just 144hrs out. -9.7 850hpa temps on tonight 12z.

Posted Imageecm_t850_anom_eur_7.png

 

Some crazy, crazy model watching the propensity of High Pressure to develop across the NH in that control run is one of the maddest things I think have seen..

 

Some great, great posts today. Superb analysis, Debbie Harry, Kelly LeBrock - ooft ! magic Video Ben and a whole bunch of wild charts in the offing. Cannae beat model watching in Winter.

 

Though we might get something exciting, certainly did not expect a 2010 revisited.. Very interesting from here creeping into Fax range.

 

I've known since September we were looking at 2010 again Posted Image

 

in all seriousness was just a guess but its looking a good one just now.

 

will I guess for utter snowmageddon next year and see if we luck out Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

Not this honest. Posted Image  Family forum and all.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naked_Jungle

 lol i remember that #carcrashtv

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Posted
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)

BUS, close association with my names, and a bad quiff many years ago and growing up in the 80's.

 

Excitement growing for next week by all accounts, but a repeat for 2010 would be just mental, I assume Keith has been briefed.Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

wife just said "I suppose thats you looking at your stupid weather coloured in map thingies for the next 3 months now" that means winter officially started and she has lost control of the laptop...... i bought you a tablet last year my dear for this scenario :)

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Very cold windy day but showers fading and ground drying as we started lifting a store of neeps this afternoon.Will probably lift more tomorrow ahead of next week in case we can"t get back to them for a wile.

Some hard frosts next week should help to knock down the tops which have been choking the machine today and we will probably lift some more later next week if this happens as progress was slow today.

Farm is buzzing this week coal ordered today, freezer topped up with bread,winter tyres on last Monday,garden almost dug,ploughing on its way, new fence nearly complete,new steading gutter going in today hopefully finished tomorrow so preparations for winter are well in hand. All these were planned well in advance but all seem to be happening this week. And Northernlights is a bit tired as well after two days socialising in Edinburgh

Cows and calves are time tabled to come in on Sunday and so the winter routine will be established.

Currently 3c and clear

Edited by Northernlights
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

wife just said "I suppose thats you looking at your stupid weather coloured in map thingies for the next 3 months now" that means winter officially started and she has lost control of the laptop...... i bought you a tablet last year my dear for this scenario Posted Image

 

that's class needed a really good laugh Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

my original post from September and I have put it in as if we do get an early cold blast we will have to watch the ice in September as it cant be a coincidence with how early cold would come with early ice advance and could give us a useful tool at telling if we might get an early blast as early as September I will be watching this in winters to come

 

 

 

Posted 24 September 2013 - 10:49

CatchMyDrift, on 24 Sept 2013 - 09:38, said:Posted Image

I'd settle for a couple of months of wet, stormy weather and then winter to start about the third week of December, last until late February before a gentle, warm spring. I don't ask for much, do I?

 

seems like a reasonable request to me.

 

i'm gonna do some hard digging into things in the next couple of weeks as I know there has been some recent model updates going for early heights around Greenland and iceland and I think they might be on to something I just have a funny feeling we could get a 2010 hit again

 

should probably add why I think that.

 

I think our cold could be put down to early ice advance and snow cover and I hear all these people saying about this as concern to developing an SSW but I really think there missing out on something as I think the early ice advance and snow cover is what we might need to give the cold an early kick up the bum for it to make the travel down here as it cant be a coincidence that the two years we had really good early advance in sea ice more so than the snow cover is the two winters we had deep cold over the uk

 

this year the ice has started its comeback already and we are way ahead in snow cover with good 850's forecast this should advance over the next week so we will wait to see how things go this year.

 

if this turns out that we do see a correlation this could be a really good tool to try and gauge through September and start of October what we might see in the following winter.

Edited by Buriedundersnow, 24 September 2013 - 11:06 .

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Posted
  • Location: s.w. of Edinburgh (Currie - 145m / 475ft asl)
  • Location: s.w. of Edinburgh (Currie - 145m / 475ft asl)

Evening guys, thought I would clock in for the winter season !

 

Things starting to get really interesting, that GFS control run earlier was unreal.

 

Here's to another cold winter hopefully ! Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

Can you tell Mrs edodfc that Mrs Catch sends her sympathies Posted Image

lol :) they could form a support group................. the irony is she thinks this is pointless whilst her activity of choice is reading out statuses on facebook to me of people i do not know.......

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

 

my original post from September and I have put it in as if we do get an early cold blast we will have to watch the ice in September as it cant be a coincidence with how early cold would come with early ice advance and could give us a useful tool at telling if we might get an early blast as early as September I will be watching this in winters to come

 

 

 

Posted 24 September 2013 - 10:49

CatchMyDrift, on 24 Sept 2013 - 09:38, said:Posted Image

 

seems like a reasonable request to me.

 

i'm gonna do some hard digging into things in the next couple of weeks as I know there has been some recent model updates going for early heights around Greenland and iceland and I think they might be on to something I just have a funny feeling we could get a 2010 hit again

 

should probably add why I think that.

 

I think our cold could be put down to early ice advance and snow cover and I hear all these people saying about this as concern to developing an SSW but I really think there missing out on something as I think the early ice advance and snow cover is what we might need to give the cold an early kick up the bum for it to make the travel down here as it cant be a coincidence that the two years we had really good early advance in sea ice more so than the snow cover is the two winters we had deep cold over the uk

 

this year the ice has started its comeback already and we are way ahead in snow cover with good 850's forecast this should advance over the next week so we will wait to see how things go this year.

 

if this turns out that we do see a correlation this could be a really good tool to try and gauge through September and start of October what we might see in the following winter.

Edited by Buriedundersnow, 24 September 2013 - 11:06 .

 

great stuff BUS and sounds as plausible as any other theories...... i guess i miss some good posts in my summer hibernation from here

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Evening guys, thought I would clock in for the winter season !

 

Things starting to get really interesting, that GFS control run earlier was unreal.

 

Here's to another cold winter hopefully ! Posted Image

 

Welcome back - LOL nearly -40 500hpa temps on that Control run earlier..

post-7292-0-25909600-1384469190_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Evening all. Modelgasms on said thread again tonight I see! Certainly looks as if it will be chilly round the proverbials next week. Personally i always prefer if the snow thing holds off until December after a lot of cold, frost and ice days last third of November. Isn't that what happened in 2010? Anyway, I'm always a bit wary of snow around 19th,20th,21st November dates as  often that's about it for the rest of the winter! Hopefully it will hold off for another couple of weeks but be very cold in the lead up. That's just me though.  Who knows. it may be the start of a long, hard, winter!Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

That's similar to what Mrs Catch said, she's going to start "her own thing". I didn't want to point out that the weather was started many moons ago by the forces of physics, not really something you can just start up yourself.

this really made me chuckle.......keep me posted on her thing Posted Image maybe we could start hobby suggesting posts for frustrated partners

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Check where the 528dam line is on the one..

 

Lovely.

 

post-7292-0-07829400-1384470029_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

the GFS 18z is a horror show again tonight but I wanted to post a chart to go along with my post earlier about the high sinking if it goes for Scandinavia and if we are to go down that route the 18z might have gave us a get out of jail card which would allow us to hit Greenland

 

 

the arrow on the right is the get out of jail free card which in this run seems to fade but if we can see this develop and hang around it could stop the highs linking and sinking and the arrow on the left shows that we would have a chance of the high being pushed into Greenland

 

didn't go right on this run but might be something to watch

 

post-18233-0-95546300-1384470133_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

ahhh the blitzen gonnae no snaw on 19,20 or 21 November and ruin winter theory.................. I kinda agree with the too early theory but not so sure of the specific date cut off point :) 

 

was november 24th we had first snow of the famous 2010 period but to be fair most of the snow then fell between then and early january with little new snow beyond that

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Where did you get that chart, I can't find properly updated charts anywhere Posted Image

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

 

I like that link because they are time stamped and it saves my brain working out if am looking at the latest one or last nights !

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Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland, ASL 33m/108ft
  • Location: Perth, Scotland, ASL 33m/108ft

evening all, reporting for winter duties.

 

looking forward to the next few months constantly checking charts and updates from those in this thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

ahhh the blitzen gonnae no snaw on 19,20 or 21 November and ruin winter theory.................. I kinda agree with the too early theory but not so sure of the specific date cut off point :)  was november 24th we had first snow of the famous 2010 period but to be fair most of the snow then fell between then and early january with little new snow beyond that

Id happily settle for that again......more than willing to forgo feb and march to experience that 1 in 100 year event ...only a few years later!!Of course id also be very happy to experience a mix of 1947/1963 and 2010....although we may experience this along with it...post-18260-0-72310900-1384471150_thumb.jpost-18260-0-12434600-1384471168_thumb.j
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

GFS pub run & Control run = more madness..

 

post-7292-0-76102200-1384471873_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-73067900-1384471906_thumb.pn

 

That's an early 80s January winter chart..!!

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

My memories of the 2010 event were of constantly feeling that we were missing out, it's the only time I've felt a bit disappointed when we "only" had 10 inches of snow. The day of the streamer was immense though, I must have photos somewhere...

 

It was the 28th of November 2010, I do have pics but they've all got my kids in them.

 

It was a superb spell, utterly top notch, thought I'd have to wait years to see snow as deep as it was in 2009/10 (which was just under a foot I believe) but less that a year later we had way more than that (I think my depths were conservative because snow kept falling off the measuring table!). Day after day it pilled in off the North Sea, with the temperature nudging slightly downwards right through to the Wednesday when it sat pretty much dead on 0C the whole day, and the first time 'snow week' off from school in memory. Just an amazing time, everyone should get a week like that at least once in their life, and because of January 2010 (a rather different but similarly excellent affair) I basically had two snow weeks in the space of 11 months.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

yeah LS 2010 was a cracker for snow best I can remember apart from one year I cant remember which one was in the 2000's anyway where we had frontal snowfall which dropped around a foot but melted the next day.

 

another 2010 or better would do me I am choking to beat my 2010 pics gonna be hard to beat these in SNOW SHIELD Falkirk area

 

post-18233-0-61056600-1384474923_thumb.jpost-18233-0-17800500-1384474933_thumb.jpost-18233-0-80986200-1384474940_thumb.jpost-18233-0-16182600-1384474949_thumb.j

 

probably got a bit deeper than the last pic when the front stalled over us but with nothing to do I got pretty mashed out ma face and forgot about taking pics lol

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

I'll dig it out tomorrow after the 12Zs if I've got time but the NMM-18 (basically high res GFS which goes out to 168 hours on NW-extra) has been signalling that some of those troughs may actually still have a bit of life in them when they reach the central belt and actually have some temporary accumulations for central and eastern parts, particularly Wednesday into Thursday and on this run, Monday into Tuesday. Now, many of us have bad experiences with northerlies in terms of them being dry but more often than not they come good for central areas this early in the season and I'm hoping this one will prove no different. If past years are anything to go by I'd expect a good number of of us to end up with a covering at some point in the next week and almost all of us to see some falling snow. I'm particularly interested to see how northerlies pan out here in Edinburgh with the Forth 'resurrection' effect coming into play with troughs that have died out going over the Grampians, since we had almost no northerlies last year.

Currently it's a balmy 10-12C off the coast of Scotland so we're going to be looking at a 20C temperature gradient from surface to 850hpa level and a 50C gradient to 500hpa. Now given that the skew-t for Lerwick itself was so promising with air temperatures at 5C imagine what 12C is going to look like - some very hefty showers and even thunderstorms are going to crop up, so I'd expect some really spectacular troughs heading down the spine of the country north to south.

 

 

Posted Image

Actually, even better, 500hpa temperatures are progged even lower than I thought, below the magic -40C threshold, which means that we *may* even be looking at territory favourable to Polar Lows:

Posted Image

 

These only occur in straight northerly flows but that's exactly what the GFS has for us on Tuesday evening:

Posted Image

 

 

Too early to say, but keep your eyes on the satellite charts from Monday night onwards...

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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