Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013


lorenzo

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Nice and clear again this morning.

 

Couple of 'other' charts that don't normally put in an appearance among the regular ones, both highlighting the trend for blocked Atlantic and falling 850hpa temps.

 

Meteogram for Aberdeen

post-7292-0-69844600-1384243702_thumb.pn

 

NAEFS - best verifying of all the ensemble runs, just marginally ahead of GEFS, this at 180 which means it is staying with the trend.

post-7292-0-61806800-1384243703_thumb.pn

 

Way out in GFS FI there are some mad charts, well there always are, but in particular the modelling of the vortex and it's drop into Europe is insane, worth keeping an eye on.

post-7292-0-80905200-1384243885_thumb.pn

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

Lovely looking GFS chart there Lorenzo! Horrible day here, horizontal rain again!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury and Saint Laurent de Cerdans (66) France
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/cold in winter, hot and sunny in summer
  • Location: Newbury and Saint Laurent de Cerdans (66) France

What a beautiful morning, quite fresh and sweet smelling after the nights rain. Suns up now and its blasting through my works window. A little cool this morning at 4 degrees. Charts are looking good for at least a short cold spell later, fingers crossed.


Hi, I am at an early learning stage, can you explain Tripole for me or point me to where I can find out more. Cheers!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
I didn't actually realise we were running quite so low temperature wise because the synoptics haven't been blockbuster but actually it has been an exceptional prolonged cold spell for early November which looks as though it will continue, barring the odd milder day like today.
 
It's probably because it hasn't felt cold, just cool. For this area I'd also say it's been relatively dry and sunny too compared to what you'd normally expect for November. This morning repeats the general theme for the month so far here with a bright sunny morning without a cloud in the sky and only a gentle breeze. There was a slight, patchy frost first thing and at 9am the temperature inland was 3C (around 6C nearer the coast in Dyce).

 

 

Hi, I am at an early learning stage, can you explain Tripole for me or point me to where I can find out more. Cheers!

 

I'm sure someone more knowledgeable can provide a more detailed description but basically it's when you have warm water in the northern North Atlantic near Greenland, warm water in the southern North Atlantic towards the equator but a cooler band of water in the central north Atlantic. It's somehow associated with coder than average winters, but why that is is beyond my level of knowledge.

 

P.S. The multiquote stuff seems to have gone haywire for me this morning...hence the edit.

Edited by Ravelin
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
  • Weather Preferences: appropriately seasonal
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire

Where's the sun gone? It's turned almost black out, tipping it down, and a whistley wind has popped up from nowhere (currently 8C). Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

joe b thinks we are looking good

 

Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori 23m

Europe-parties over as it turns colder, could deepen into a December to remember. Blocking could pop Hope those turbines are working


What a beautiful morning, quite fresh and sweet smelling after the nights rain. Suns up now and its blasting through my works window. A little cool this morning at 4 degrees. Charts are looking good for at least a short cold spell later, fingers crossed.


Hi, I am at an early learning stage, can you explain Tripole for me or point me to where I can find out more. Cheers!

 

 

note the atlantic in the chart

 

W = warm

 

C = cold

 

TRIPOLE =  warm then cold then warm ( warm south of Greenland, cold mid atlantic and warm tropical atlantic)

 

Posted Image

 

its said if this sets up in the atlantic it can mean a cold winter for us here in the UK

 

SST anomalies can be found here

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html

Edited by Buriedundersnow
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

joe b also posted this

 

Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori 49m

Make sure the Turbines are working Europe,cold is coming and become king in December

 

post-18233-0-81674700-1384263128_thumb.j

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

joe b also posted this

 

Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori 49m

Make sure the Turbines are working Europe,cold is coming and become king in December

 

Posted ImageBY3x0nWCQAIBINf.jpg

 

I must say there is potential (I'd still say it's no more than 30%) of this developing into a longer cold spell which lasts into December. I still feel the overall strength of the upper vortex is going to prevent a full blown December 2009/November 2010 type setup but a period of dry cold from a mid latitude high followed by a northerly/northeasterly reload of the cold is still quite a plausible option.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

Trying it's hardest to snow here, odd wee flakes drifting down.

Edited by mardatha
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Atlantic tripole correlates with negative NAO and improved blocking. On phone so can't chart to illustrate.

Google tripole ssta nao loads of papers come up

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: 7 miles east of glagow city centre 65asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder any extreme weather
  • Location: 7 miles east of glagow city centre 65asl

Really keeping my fingers crossed for some if the white stuff next week â¤ï¸â„ï¸

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)
  • Location: Denny. (75m ASL)

Hopefully this autumn scene can be turned into a snowy winter wonderland. (Helix now open in Falkirk, they are some sight)

Posted Image

 

http://www.thisiscolossal.com/2013/11/giant-kelpies-horse-head-sculptures-tower-over-the-forth-clyde-canal-in-scotland/

Edited by Cheggers
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

Could have swore seen a flake in a squally shower today but as was 7 degrees this was probably a case of bein up all night and suffering hallucinations......thanks for all the kind messages...can't believe 4 days flew past there that I never got near the forum.....good to see some early winter potential in charts....wee man better learn to sleep all night soon so I have some energy left to do some chart watching and forum reading!! Notice a couple of twitter feeds startin to talk of potential cold and possible snow....is anyone else here apart from Lorenzo on twitter?? Much as I love the long posts would be great to see Charts being posted on twitter for a quick short fix... Matthugo is excellent to follow

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: The Highlands of West Fife. 650ft ASL. Nr Knockhill Racing Circuit
  • Weather Preferences: Hot N' Sunny / Cauld N' Snawy
  • Location: The Highlands of West Fife. 650ft ASL. Nr Knockhill Racing Circuit

Hopefully this autumn scene can be turned into a snowy winter wonderland. (Helix now open in Falkirk, they are some sight)

Posted Image

 

http://www.thisiscolossal.com/2013/11/giant-kelpies-horse-head-sculptures-tower-over-the-forth-clyde-canal-in-scotland/

Aye Cheggers, I've watched these getting built bit by bit as I pass them every day ont the way tae work. (Impressive!)

Down side! Fkn M/way now grinds tae a crawl or halt going to & from work, due tae rubber neckers.

I can see a few accidents happening arround this area (The Skelpies)

 

They might be covered in Snaw at some point next week?

 

 

Big Innes 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

Hopefully this autumn scene can be turned into a snowy winter wonderland. (Helix now open in Falkirk, they are some sight)

Posted Image

 

http://www.thisiscolossal.com/2013/11/giant-kelpies-horse-head-sculptures-tower-over-the-forth-clyde-canal-in-scotland/

 

Those are fantastic!

 

Reminds me of a project I had to do in school where we had to suggest a new tourist attraction for the Highlands and I suggested two huge statutes of stags at the entrance to the Highlands, they inceptioned me!

Edited by NorthernRab
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

Morning all! A calm kinda morning, just waiting for the gales to kick in. Just checked XC weather for next week......white stuff for this airt on Tuesday and Wednesday. We'll see. I'm not going to get overexcited at this early stage. Nothing worse than snow forecast and then we get rain!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl

I love those Kelpies - remember seeing tv news bit showing the guy's workshop and the scale models, only about six foot tall - in oxidised iron, somehow even better… still look at the shiny shiny and feel regretful they didn't keep the rusty rusty, but mebbe give out the wrong message, too reminiscent of Linwood no more, Bathgate no more… btw, may have said this before, but 'Sunshine on Leith', the film - go see it. Bawl your eyes out. Laugh your socks off. Sing your heart out. It's not a bad wee country, ours...Weather! (Oooh, on-topic?!) It's a streaky red sky this morning and blowing a fair bit round and about. Nippy, too. You can tell I've no weather station to hand, can't you? XC reckons on 7 degrees and a 15mph WSWerly at present. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire
  • Weather Preferences: appropriately seasonal
  • Location: Huntingtower, Perthshire

Ha I'm on twitter Edo but I don't EVER post charts lol! What's Lorenzo's twitter?

 

BMW I second "Sunshine..." went to see it opening week with the girlfriends - we were all singing along at the end!

 

XC only shows one flake for here on tuesday during the day at the moment - still not really expecting anything here to be honest at this stage. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl

ECM of some interest.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

A chilly outlook.

 

What would happen next if this was the case....

 

Posted Image

 

A split in the vortex?

 

Posted Image

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Right, come on, own up, who's nicked my sun? Posted Image

 

Universal cover of grey cloud here for a change this morning, which is a shock after the decent sunny days we've been treated to lately. I think we managed around 7hrs of sunshine yesterday according to the weather observations from Dyce (http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/3091.html). The cloud has kept the temperatures up a bit and the frost away this morning.

 

Trying not to get too excited about the prospects for next week. I don't expect it to be a major event but to see any snow falling in November at all is always a bonus. If it lies on the local hills then even better.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

UKMO at +144 is excellent too (can't post as on mobile), a proper Arctic flow with a nice westerly kink which could give something along the lines of a 9th January 2011 type snowfall (or a much watered down 6th December 2010 'grittergate' when the MO alerted the transport department of a foot of snow across the central belt with a yellow warning of ice). SM mentioning the parallels to November 2010, and while again I'd stress it's an outside possibility the massive snowfalls were also just an outside possibility at this stage of November 2010. A warmer continent and a stronger vortex however do mean it's even more of an outside bet but if we can get a sustained GH anything's possible for the end of the month. My thoughts are that we're more likely to see blocking remain at our latitudes for the most part with a reload more likely in the form of a colder northerly followed by Polar northwesterlies but it's very interesting to say the least.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury and Saint Laurent de Cerdans (66) France
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/cold in winter, hot and sunny in summer
  • Location: Newbury and Saint Laurent de Cerdans (66) France

joe b thinks we are looking good

 

Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori 23m

Europe-parties over as it turns colder, could deepen into a December to remember. Blocking could pop Hope those turbines are working

 

 

note the atlantic in the chart

 

W = warm

 

C = cold

 

TRIPOLE =  warm then cold then warm ( warm south of Greenland, cold mid atlantic and warm tropical atlantic)

 

Posted Image

 

its said if this sets up in the atlantic it can mean a cold winter for us here in the UK

 

SST anomalies can be found here

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html

Thanks, clear to me now, heres hoping!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

personally I am punting for the models to go with the colder option LS and I don't know why but have a funny feeling the models might develop something really good for us cold lovers over the next say 4 or 5 days of runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

have put my hopes for winter in my signature hopefully we can see something like it

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...