scotland Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn 2013

[mistyqueen]

Morning all! A tad breezy and damp up here a bit tame in comparison to what's going on inSouthern Engerland. Gaunae get a bit mental doon Sooth overnight....a serious bit of ramping going on the Severe Weather Discussion. Undoubtedly it will be windy and wild, but will it be as bad as originally forecast?

[Hairy Celt]

A bit of perspective would help too, as well as a memory that stretches back further than the last thread about storms from hell on the Daily Rant. Cyclone Phailin perhaps, with 100000s evacuated.

 

Nice morning here though...  Managed to oversleep for the first time in ages, quite nice really!

 

Also, for the far north-west, looks like Wednesday this week has the potential for some wind & rain too. But no-one with red braces stays there.

Edited October 27, 2013 by Hairy Celt

[Buriedundersnow]

nice day here not too windy but looks like some hefty showers on the way.

 

cant tell you's temps or that but thinking of investing in a weather station will just need to see what pennys I can scare up.

 

been some good fun the last 24hrs following the ups and downs on the storm thread and having a little laugh watching the models take there storm away from them and leaving things just looking a tad windy but nothing special.

 

if I recall correctly did this not happen during the winter with a channel low being modelled only for it to get inside 48hrs and the GFS started correcting south and the others followed and it ended up all but missing.

 

silly southerners they never learn

[skyeblue]

Looks a wild day oot there laying on the couch Just chilling !

[LomondSnowstorm]

NAE 6Z is a slight 'upgrade' on the wind, with 30 knots sustained wind around Edinburgh/East Lothian by evening:

 

Fortunately, however, the main impact overnight into tomorrow for the far south of England looks relatively benign compared to what might have been, with the worst of the winds out in the Channel and, for us, it's likely to be a fairly calm night:

[snow1975]

Hmm, it IS irritating to keep hearing the media refer to it as 'the most powerful storm to hit the UK in years'.  More accurate could be to describe it as potentially the 'most disruptive' for years, seeing as southern and central England are so densely populated and there are so many commuter routes, roads and other infrastructure exposed to potential damage.I'm sure others have said the same, but the impact of weaker storms can be so much greater where they occur infrequently.  I'll never forget visiting relatives in Surrey and London in October 1987 and being stunned at the number of trees down.  I'd never seen anything like it, and to be honest I've not seen anything like it since.  Utter carnage.

I can't comment on the October 1987 storm apart from what I recall seeing on the TV news. More recently a powerful storm affected the central belt on January 2nd 2012, and like in the 1987 storm, a 'Sting Jet' developed. I recorded a barometric pressure of 960mbar (adjusted to MSL) at 09hr. I've never seen so many trees down in my part of Fife, especially in the nearby forestry. Roofs were blown off houses and my garden shed ended up in the neighbours garden. I think there was a gust of 112mph on Blackford Hill, Edinburgh. It was up there with the '87 storm.

[LomondSnowstorm]

yeah trying but same as usual on this site the first you post things about it not being so bad or why there hyping it up so much then they start deleting your posts.

 

I take the point they make about the regional impact being worse because wind events are more rare in southern England but even so, at the moment it doesn't look like being *that* severe even in the context of southern England. It's noteworthy of course, but as ever the media do love to overhype weather stories because they sell newspapers very well and even moreso if it actually affects the area where the majority of journalists writing the stories live and work. I don't particularly blame the MO, because they do have a duty to warn people and it's very easy for what they're saying to be misinterpreted by scientifically illiterate types who don't know think there's a difference between a 72mph gust and Hurricane Katrina (for example), but they should be careful that they don't end up painting a picture of a 'UK-wide' storm when in fact less than 1/4 of the landmass and no more than about 1/3 of the population are likely to experience anything other than standard October weather. Of course, this time next year we (hopefully)may not have any right to quibble about headlined 'UK-wide storms' not really affecting Scotland but that's a rather different issue

[Buriedundersnow]

I take the point they make about the regional impact being worse because wind events are more rare in southern England but even so, at the moment it doesn't look like being *that* severe even in the context of southern England. It's noteworthy of course, but as ever the media do love to overhype weather stories because they sell newspapers very well and even moreso if it actually affects the area where the majority of journalists writing the stories live and work. I don't particularly blame the MO, because they do have a duty to warn people and it's very easy for what they're saying to be misinterpreted by scientifically illiterate types who don't know think there's a difference between a 72mph gust and Hurricane Katrina (for example), but they should be careful that they don't end up painting a picture of a 'UK-wide' storm when in fact less than 1/4 of the landmass and no more than about 1/3 of the population are likely to experience anything other than standard October weather. Of course, this time next year we (hopefully)may not have any right to quibble about headlined 'UK-wide storms' not really affecting Scotland but that's a rather different issue

 

good to see u back for the run into winter LS.

 

you got any initial thoughts on what we may see?

 

I punted in September for an early hit like 2010 still looks like that could go either way at the moment.

[BleakMidwinter]

I can't comment on the October 1987 storm apart from what I recall seeing on the TV news. More recently a powerful storm affected the central belt on January 2nd 2012, and like in the 1987 storm, a 'Sting Jet' developed. I recorded a barometric pressure of 960mbar (adjusted to MSL) at 09hr. I've never seen so many trees down in my part of Fife, especially in the nearby forestry. Roofs were blown off houses and my garden shed ended up in the neighbours garden. I think there was a gust of 112mph on Blackford Hill, Edinburgh. It was up there with the '87 storm.

102mph on Blackford Hill - we're about a mile away and forty foot down from the weather station, and that was the gust, between 9 and 10am, that wrenched the big heavy cast-iron skylight right out of the roof. Second-most scary weather I've ever experienced (the other being the literal cloudburst in May, I think 2011? 2010? Very localised, very terrifying) 

[lorenzo]

Think some context is required and we are all aware of the media bias, and how grating the inequality can be at times, we can however stay classy and ignore it.

 

Michael Fish on bbc news provides some background to the hype over this system - 

 

Forecaster Michael Fish, who famously reassured viewers there was no "hurricane" on the way, said the weather over the coming days would not rival the Great Storm. He told the BBC News Channel: "Present thoughts are there are three storms it's comparable to - March 2008, January 2007 and October 2000."

We are more than familiar with  Atlantic lows tracking in easily at least 3 a season of similar depth, looking at the stats above, this in fact a pretty rare event.

As always if there are any posts that are disparaging about the team or generally negative then they most probably will be deleted. Please use the report button if you need to or send a PM.

Some great weather watching coming up, Enjoy !

 

 

[Buriedundersnow]

Think some context is required and we are all aware of the media bias, and how grating the inequality can be at times, we can however stay classy and ignore it.

 

Michael Fish on bbc news provides some background to the hype over this system - 

 

Forecaster Michael Fish, who famously reassured viewers there was no "hurricane" on the way, said the weather over the coming days would not rival the Great Storm. He told the BBC News Channel: "Present thoughts are there are three storms it's comparable to - March 2008, January 2007 and October 2000."

We are more than familiar with  Atlantic lows tracking in easily at least 3 a season of similar depth, looking at the stats above, this in fact a pretty rare event.

As always if there are any posts that are disparaging about the team or generally negative then they most probably will be deleted. Please use the report button if you need to or send a PM.

Some great weather watching coming up, Enjoy !

 

 

its kinda hard to enjoy when we aren't allowed to give our own point about a so called storm not really being that bad as well as the fact the models this morning have backtracked so doesn't look to be anything like it was supposed to be.

 

also with what happened to me last winter where I was banned from posting in the model thread and still am banned all because I posted a few posts where I dared to mention Christmas then going on to watch over the winter when the thread had to be shut due to people being utterly stupid and still seeing them being able to post.

 

now we cant even post in here about the storm being weak where its a thread for Scottish to post there own thoughts.

 

makes it kind of hard to ENJOY when you know that u are being looked over more than other posters on here.

[LomondSnowstorm]

good to see u back for the run into winter LS.

 

you got any initial thoughts on what we may see?

 

I punted in September for an early hit like 2010 still looks like that could go either way at the moment.

 

Aye, the initial analogues are a bit mixed to be honest - ENSO signal is fairly muted, QBO is westerly which is generally not a great sign although combined with an, albeit low amplitude, solar maximum does increase our SSW likelihood, and while the AAM tendency has been negative until fairly recently we're seeing a decent uptick in Mountain torque which is forcing it positive which, combined with some Wave 1 activity, could filter through to some more interesting conditions later in the month. On the other hand, we are seeing the Polar vortex building up quite strongly from the top of the strat downwards which suggests that we may not be done with the stormy weather for a good few weeks yet, although I'm expecting at least one decent northerly outbreak in the next 4 weeks to come from it.

We've had a decent gain of Eurasian snow cover so far, and sea ice remains below the long term average, which should both aid the potential for high level blocking in the coming months. Overall, I'd say we're looking at a winter which is average to below average, with rainfall likely above average (particularly to begin with) and with temperatures generally colder in the second half than the first half (analogues point to a January/early February SSW). However, the gamechanger would be if we could develop a December 2009 scenario where localised wavebreaking over Greenland leads to an early breakdown of the vortex, and we all know where that lead us. I'd say odds are currently against that but I wouldn't completely rule it out, and of course nor is a warming event later on in the winter a stick on either.

[lorenzo]

its kinda hard to enjoy when we aren't allowed to give our own point about a so called storm not really being that bad as well as the fact the models this morning have backtracked so doesn't look to be anything like it was supposed to be.

 

also with what happened to me last winter where I was banned from posting in the model thread and still am banned all because I posted a few posts where I dared to mention Christmas then going on to watch over the winter when the thread had to be shut due to people being utterly stupid and still seeing them being able to post.

 

now we cant even post in here about the storm being weak where its a thread for Scottish to post there own thoughts.

 

makes it kind of hard to ENJOY when you know that u are being looked over more than other posters on here.

 

Bus, regarding the deleted posts, I have sent you a PM earlier today, as far as I can see your post regarding the models downgrading the output is still there.

 

Regarding last Winter, I would suggest sending a PM to one of the Reds or Blues on the Team.

[Buriedundersnow]

Bus, regarding the deleted posts, I have sent you a PM earlier today, as far as I can see your post regarding the models downgrading the output is still there.

 

Regarding last Winter, I would suggest sending a PM to one of the Reds or Blues on the Team.

 

just got your PM there for some reason it wasn't showing at the top of the screen.

 

just to let u know that wasn't levelled at you LORENZO it was just a general rant about some posts getting deleted as I feel there wasn't really anything wrong with them they weren't being nasty about certain ppl just about the hype in general which I feel we should be allowed to express our views on and probably still a bit angry about how I was treated in the model thread last winter.

[Buriedundersnow]

any how back to the weather and the models.

 

GFS 0z and 6z throwing out some interesting charts in FI looking to get heights towards Greenland or Scandinavia lets just hope this trend continues and develops into something to give us some cold and snow in the near future

 

0z

 

 

6z

 

 

[Buriedundersnow]

GFS 12z now rolling out and still going for the non-event down south will wait to see what the ECM 12z shows to see if this continues

 

 

UKMO 12z goes with the non-event as well so looks like it wont be stormy down south mostly just a soaking

 

Edited October 27, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[lorenzo]

No worries Buried.

 

Some bright cells pinging through on radar right now, good skies. Still a fair bit of weather to get through today spinning off that low anchored to the Northwest.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hairy Celt]

Any more nonsense BUS, and I'll email you a redips

 

Pretty showery here now - and dark god the one thing I really don't like about winter!

[Buriedundersnow]

well the worst storm since 87 doesn't look like its doing very much and will have to deepen a lot if its to have the impacts that has been thrown about.

 

cant dismiss the high res models but to me it looks pretty tame just now

 

 

little unrelated question :  does anyone have any idea if four stud alloys from a SEAT will fit a four stud FIESTA?

[Mesosphere]

Southern England now in full scale shutdown mode for tomorrow AM. I look forward to the rolling coverage on sky news and the constant updates from some guy standing on a bridge over the M25 

[Ross B]

Central belt streamers at the moment, torrential rain and high winds - shame its not coming from the east and snow!

[101_North]

Rain outside is unreal! Absolutely torrential!

[Buriedundersnow]

Rain outside is unreal! Absolutely torrential!

 

 

yeah its been totally chucking it down here for a while as well

[Cheggers]

What an utter I need to control my languagee day, and torrential rain pinging doon at present, along with the gentle breeze....

 

Anyhoo while we await what will or will not happen with oor Southern neighbors, some mighty fine Scottish signage... and HC, take note of No6

http://www.buzzfeed.com/robinedds/the-most-wonderfully-scottish-things-that-have-ever-happe

[Buriedundersnow]

I wonder if we will shut everything down if we see this or generate the media hype with sky news standing on the beaches